This is by far and away my most favorite blog post of each year. It combines
the three hobbies that I enjoy most in life: sports, movies and gambling. Each
year I choose one of my favorite actors in Hollywood (movies) and compare their
body of work to the upcoming NFL season (sports) and how it relates to Fantasy
Football (gambling). For an example, last season I chose John Cusack and I think I did okay. Some good calls (Jordan
Cameron doing well and the state of New York sucking) and some bad calls (Ryan
Williams breaking out and DeSean Jackson being a bust) which is the norm for predictions
before most starters step onto the field in preseason. As always I aim for 79%
accuracy and 3 solid laughs throughout the post.
This season I'm covering one of the most recognizable actors of my lifetime,
Tom Hanks. The winner of two best actor Oscars, nominated in three different
decades (and nearly a fourth this past year for Captain Phillips), Hanks has
done almost everything in Hollywood. He started on television with the campy
Bosom Buddies, then did screwball comedies in the 80s (Bachelor Party, The
Money Pit), graduated to dramas and peaking with his awards in the 90s and then
turned to blockbuster franchises (Toy Story, the Dan Brown novels) and finally
producing and a little directing. If you asked 100 people what their favorite
Tom Hanks movie was, you would probably get 15-20 different answers. If I had
to rank my top 5 Tom Hanks movies they would be:
5) Big
4) Saving Private Ryan
3) A League of Their Own
2) Toy Story
1) Apollo 13 (yes I just watched this again this past weekend, I can't turn
it off when it's on)
So let me get right to it and tell you everything you'll need to know about
the upcoming Fantasy Football season.
Sleepless in Seattle
Just like last season when I started with the defending champion Ravens, I
head to the great Pacific Northwest where the loyal fans of the Seahawks
finally got their first Lombardi Trophy. Where do I start with this stacked
team? Stud RB, Marshawn Lynch? Dynamic dual threat QB Russell Wilson? Big play
potential WR Percy Harvin? How about the dominating Defense? Last season was
nice, but they could be even better this season.
Let's go backwards with the defense which normally doesn't get spoken
about in fantasy football articles. The Seahawks defense should be the first
defense drafted and it will be a round or two before any other defense. They
had six games where they gave up fewer than 10 points and were the best in the
league in giving up yards to the opponent. How could they get better? They only
scored four defensive TDs in 2013 and with their big play potential they could
easily have 2-3 more this upcoming season. Percy Harvin is the great unknown.
He was completely absent in 2013 until the Super Bowl when he had a kickoff
return for a touchdown (see he's helping your Seahakws defense already!). With
Golden Tate gone and Sidney Rice retired, it's all on his shoulders to make the
passing game a threat. Drafting him will be all about value. His name and
potential will increase his ADP while his injury risk will scare some people off.
If he drops, he is a must pick, but don't go too crazy. That brings us to
Russell Wilson who can be really, really good just as easy as he can be really,
really quiet. The Seahawks play a run first style and then lean on their
defense. Unless he gets his points early it usually winds up being a quiet day
at the office. Hopefully with some of the losses on the defense the Seahawks on
quite as dominant forcing Wilson to have to do a little bit more, thus raising
his ceiling. Don't let the Super Bowl win fool you into reaching for him. He's
a great #2 in a 10 team league and a fringe starter in anything bigger. As for
Marshawn Lynch, all the signs of a first round bust are there. He's had a ton
of mileage on his tires with 1,002 rushes over the last three seasons
(including the playoffs). That's 334 per year for those of you who don't know
how to operate a calculator. He has got to be tired (I'm tired just carrying my
kid up to bed once a night). There has already been talk of more of a time
share in Seattle this season with Christine Michael who is a must-handcuff for
anyone willing to ride the rainbow one more season.
Big & Splash - Big Splash!
This is where I cover the rookie class...you know the guys who are looking
to make a big splash onto the fantasy football scene. Some people call me a
genius when they read these preview posts, others just point their finger at me
and laugh like Nelson on The Simpsons. Anyways, this years crop of rookies will
at least get more headlines than last years did, but whether they produce on
the field worthy of a draft pick in your league is yet to be seen.
QBs: Blake Bortles, Johnny Manziel and Teddy Bridgewater - DO NOT DRAFT see
that was easy.
Okay to be fair I'd pick any and all of them just in case in a keeper/dynasty
league, but for a re-draft league only Manziel intrigues me as a backup. He
will, of course, get 98% of all the rookie headlines this season whether he
warrants them or not. Bortles and his fellow rookie WRs will have their
moments, but not enough to worthy wasting a draft pick. They'll be waiver wire
pickups sometime this season. I know I'm not alone in think that Teddy
Bridgewater is in the best spot to succeed this season and for years ahead. He
has AP behind him and Cordarrelle Patterson and Kyle Rudolph to throw to with
Norv Turner calling the shots. If you told me he was going to start 16 games
I'd be willing to put him in my sleeper picks as a QB1 in a 12+ team league.
Yeah I have high hopes.
RBs: Bishop Sankey, Tre Mason, Jeremy Hill and Carlos Hyde (and even Andre
Williams) - DRAFT 'EM ALL!!!
Already Sankey is being touted as ROY potential in Tennessee since
CJbarely1K has finally been pushed away to New York. He should be the first
rookie RB off your draft board, but there are a few behind him that, if given
the right situation could easily surpass his numbers. If for any reason Zac
Stacy falls victim to a sophomore slump, Tre Mason could step right in an
perform quite nicely. The same goes for Jeremy Hill in Cincinnati as he sits
behind personal favorite Gio Bernard. He might even get a good chunk of the
touches if Gio can't prove to be an every down back (he'll be just fine, TYVM).
Carlos Hyde and Andre Williams were afterthoughts just a week or two ago, but
they have already moved up the depth charts due to injuries in San Francisco
and New York (Giants).
Here's all you need to know about the rookie crop of running backs, find a
spot on your roster for one at the end of the draft. Don't take a backup TE, K
or D or God forbid a 3rd QB. Stack the back end of your roster with as many RBs
as you can and hope they turn into gold.
WRs: Five of the first 28 and 8 of the first 45 in this draft were spent on
WRs.
I'm not touching any of them save for Sammy Watkins as a WR4 at best. I just
don't trust rookie WRs one bit. Last season Keenan Allen surprised everyone by
being quite the stud, but remember he was the 8th WR draft in the 2013 draft.
It's just too difficult to pick out a diamond from the rough. Plus, there are
far too many good WRs compared to RBs in the NFL which is why loading up on
rookie backs is far more advisable.
TEs: Eric Ebron - As Samuel L. Jackson once said 'Hold on to your butts!'
Note to self: Control your emotions Jason, don't give it away that you are
going to try and draft (in every league you're in) the best offensive player to
come out of UNC since...2013. I think Eric Ebron is destined for multiple
Pro-Bowl seasons in the NFL. I may be typing with rose-colored glasses on as a
fan of the Tar Heels, but it believe he's the real deal. He's in a great
situation even though past Detroit TEs have disappeared even while Matt
Stafford was throwing for 5,000 yards per season. Use him or lose him Matty.
The Money Pit
You remember this movie? Tom Hanks and Shelley Long keep pouring
money into a house in the hopes of making it their dream home with disastrously
funny results. I'm a Washington Redskins fan (this does not count as one of the
laughs I was looking for Mr./Ms. Reader) and under Dan Snyder, the Redskins are
like these characters when it comes to free agency. If you throw money at them,
they will come. Well it doesn't always work out they way it was planned. In
this section I'll look at a few 'old faces in new places' and determine just
how big of a money pit they'll be.
QB: Michael Vick - Fun fact, In 2003 I drafted Michael Vick #1 overall, days
before he broke his leg causing him to miss the first 11 games of the season.
Good times. 11 years later he's just trying to be a starter on the Jets. Unless
he's named opening day starter by the time you draft you can leave him to the
dogs.
RBs: Chris Johnson - Hey look another new Jet. Not guaranteed of anything
more than a timeshare, Johnson's stock should be pretty low and thus intriguing
as a 'just in case' measure.
Knowshown Moreno - From the penthouse to the outhouse. Moreno heads from
high flying Denver to Miami. Again he's walking into a possible timeshare with
last years bust Lamar Miller. Moreno is certainly the favorite to emerge, but
nothing more than a RB3 in most leagues.
Maurice Jones-Drew - After years of toiling away in the wasteland known as
Jacksonville, MJD now gets to ride into the sunset of his NFL career in the
wasteland that is Oakland. Now the Raiders actually made some decent moves to
shore up their defense this year and thus should be a bit better overall. On
the other side of the ball MJD gets paired with Run-DMC who together should be
healthy for at least six games. The Oakland backfield will be a mess.
Ben Tate - He finally gets his chance to shine. Well that is if he doesn't
lose the starting job to rookie Terrance West as I've already heard hints of
through the grapevine (which is an actual grape vine in my back yard that I put
my ear up to until the neighbors begin to snicker). If you believe in him,
that's fine, but temper your expectations.
Rashad Jennings - He's already gaining traction as a breakout player
possibility now that David Wilson has mercifully retired due to his neck
injury. The Giants as a whole will be looking to rebound after a debacle of a
season and if they can, Jennings may be at the forefront. If Eli Manning
continues to crap the bed, Jennings may just be another option for your BYE
weeks.
Toby Gerhart - Just like Ben Tate, Gerhart now gets his chance to be a
starter after being stuck behind one of the best in the game. Jacksonville has
a rookie QB and a very young WR core so they should struggle again to stay
consistent on offense. Draft him with a cautious upside.
Donald Brown - He has burned me so many times and is now 3rd string on a
team that will rotate RBs at will. Just how much will he play is the big
question. If you get Ryan Mathews and have an extra spot to fill in the last
round, you could do worse than Brown.
WRs: DeSean Jackson - Now the Redskins didn't back up the truck for Jackson
which I'm happy about. Washington will deploy four smallish WRs and big Jordan
Reed at TE. If RGIII can figure out how to be a better pocket passer or re-gain
the elusiveness as a running threat, the passing game could be lights out in
DC. Jackson won't be a PPR monster, but he'll get a few big plays. Solid WR2
option.
Steve Smith - In Carolina it was always about Steve Smith being the only
receiving option. Now in Baltimore he'll be able to mix in with Torrey Smith,
Dennis Pitta and the one who likes to beat on women. His numbers will be down,
but he could still be productive in deeper leagues.
Eric Decker - More Jets! I'm staying away from Decker unless he plummets
into the abyss during a draft. He is, by far, the biggest 'money pit' player
out there IMO. See Jennings, Greg for an example of what to expect.
Golden Tate - When you draft him you must sing 'I've got the Golden Ticket,
I've got the golden twinkle in my eye!' Detroit should be awesome again on
offense with Megatron and Reggie Bush, but now with Ebron and Tate they could
be near unstoppable. The only downside for me is he'll take away from the
numbers that I know Ebron is capable of.
Emmanuel Sanders - He should be good for about 85% of an Eric Decker. That
is plenty good enough to draft. He'll be the fourth option on a team that
should have 40+ passing TDs. You do the math.
A League of Their Own
When it comes to studs, you won't find many sites who are willing to predict
a down year. I will throw out the fact that I wrote about last year for
LeagueSafe.com: A first round caliber running back from a team with a losing
record will miss half the season or more. FACT.
Doug Martin was the causality in 2013 when Tampa went 4-12. The trend
continued:
2012: Maurice Jones-Drew (10 games), Jacksonville goes 2-14; 2011: Jamaal
Charles (14 games), Kansas City goes 7-9; 2010: DeAngelo Williams (10 games),
Carolina goes 2-14; 2009: Clinton Portis (8 games), Washington goes 4-12.
Bad things happen to good running backs on bad teams.
So who will be the victim in 2014??? My best bets are Arian Foster or
DeMarco Murray. Book it. Dark horse candidate LeSean McCoy!!
Outside of that the biggest worry I'll have with studs is Peyton Manning. He
controls the fate of so may top picks. Five of the top 45 picks on ESPN.com are
Broncos and Emmanuel Sanders is at 82.
We've seen what happened to Green Bay without Aaron Rodgers and Dallas
without Tony Romo in the past. I bring up Manning because just because he was
the best player in the NFL last year, that doesn't erase his medical history.
The two safest picks IMO of the consensus first round are neither RBs nor
QBs, but rather Calvin Johnson and Jimmy Graham. If you don't get AP, Jamaal
Charles, LeSean McCoy or Matt Forte in the top four and are scared of Peyton
Manning for any reason, draft one of those two at five and six. After the first
seven picks, life gets a bit more complicated.
Saving Private Ryan
Last season the Atlanta Falcons fell and fell hard. Tony Gonzalez came back
to play one final year because he thought Atlanta, with the addition of Steven
Jackson, had the final piece in the Super Bowl puzzle. Well a funny thing
happened on the way to the parade down Peachtree Street. Jackson got
injured (shocker I know), Julio Jones got injured and Roddy White missed some
time. All in all it was an unmitigated disaster for quarterback Matt Ryan, so
will 2014 be any different?
Steven Jackson is a year older and Tony Gonzalez finally hung up his cleats.
That's not good.
Julio Jones and Roddy White are back and healthy which is good. If Atlanta
can find a running game (probably from someone other than Jackson), they have a
chance to put up decent to above average numbers. I don't think Atlanta has
hopes of playing in a Super Bowl this season, but Ryan should better this
season. I mean, it can't go much worse than it did last year, right?
There will be some good value in Roddy White and Matt Ryan when drafting.
I'd even keep an eye on Devonta Freeman who could prove worthy of more than a
late round flier.
You've Got Mail
It was recently published that approximately 2.3 MILLION people are still
subscribing to AOL dial up services. You have GOT to be kidding me!?!?!
Remember when AOL was awesome? I barely do. This is where I will point out that
some RBs might have a name that you recognize, but deep down inside you know
they're waaaaay past their prime. Time to upgrade your services people.
I've already discussed a few of this years crop who are just trying to hang
on to their fledgling careers.
1) MJD
2) Steven Jackson
3) Chris Johnson
Here are a few others that I would avoid unless you just can't pass them up
because they've dropped like a rock:
4) BenJarvus Green-Ellis - put a fork in him, he's done. The Bengals have
two young and capable backs to turn to and Green-Ellis will be looking for a
roster spot somewhere when injuries happen by September.
5) DeAngelo Williams - This has been a slow bleed, as he has managed to stay
healthy, but his production has basically flat lined. His last three seasons
his YPC has gone 5.4, 4.3, 4.2 as his carries have increase each of those
seasons. His TDs have also gone 7, 5, 3 in those same three seasons. More touches
with less production and even fewer scoring. Yikes.
6) Ray Rice - He's just 27, but he's had a lot of work in a short time. Tack
on the fact that he'll be missing the first two games of the season and Bernard
Pierce will be itching to rebound from his sophomore slump, he is ripe for
failure. Too much crap going on in his life to focus on the game.
7) Frank Gore - Prove me wrong again Gore...do it. Will this finally be the
year that the 49ers use their stockpile of young backs (those that aren't
already injured)? I'm saying that it is. Paging Carlos Hyde, you are needed at
the sleeper desk.
Band of Brothers
Okay, so this isn't a true movie, but it's an exquisite mini series. I just
couldn't pass this one up. Also don't miss 'From the Earth to the Moon' and
currently airing on CNN 'The Sixties'. Have you figured out what I will be
discussing in this section?
Yup, everyone's favorite coaches to hate, Jim and John Harbaugh and their
teams the San Francisco 49ers and the Baltimore Ravens. Just two years ago they
were fighting it out for the Super Bowl, but both fell short last season. The
Niners are in a better position IMO to get back to the promised land, but the
Ravens have the advantage of playing in a watered down AFC.
I've already covered both Frank Gore and Ray Rice and how I think this will
be a down year for both as they have both been just so good for so long for
their respective teams.
At quarterback you have two guys in Colin Kaepernick and Joe Flacco who have
signed big money extensions and are now expected to be elite for a long time.
The key for Kaepernick is keeping Michael Crabtree on the field. When Crabtree
plays, Colin produces big time fantasy stats. He should come cheap this year
and provide great upside with a full year from Crabtree.
As for Flacco, oh Joe...he had more games with 2+ interceptions in 2013 (7)
than he did 2+ touchdowns (6). That's not good. Of course the Ravens O-Line was
in shambles which led to not being able to run the ball at all. Being forced to
throw and to throw into traffic got him in a ton of trouble. Now with a healthy
Dennis Pitta and the savvy veteran, Steve Smith, things should be better. How
much is the key? You will draft him as a backup, but you could wind up using
him if Baltimore gets hot.
Each team has a quality TE although Vernon Davis has at least proved
himself, while we are all waiting for Dennis Pitta to join the elite members of
the fantasy TE world. Davis scored 13 times last season, which was the second
time he's done that in his career. The last time he did that he followed it up
with 13 touchdowns TOTAL over the next two seasons. I have to believe that a
full season from Crabtree will cut into his total scores, but he will still be
a top 5 TE nonetheless. For Pitta, his owners would be thrilled with a 'Vernon
Davis down year' type year with 600 yards receiving and 6 touchdowns. Lump him
in with about half a dozen other TEs that you can get cheap and late and won't
hurt you too much.
At WR between Torrey and Steve Smith, Michael Crabtree and ex-Raven Anquan
Boldin you have four WRs all capable of big games and stretches of inconsistent
fantasy numbers. If I had to put them in order of fantasy points I'd go:
Crabtree, Torrey, Steve and Anquan. All worthy of a mid round pick and all
worthy of starts and sits all season long.
Catch Me If You Can
In this movie, Tom Hanks runs around trying to catch a teenager who is
kiting checks and emulating a pilot and doctor among other professions. In
recent years, the NFL has seen a change of pace from plodding running games and
low scoring offenses, to wide open, four WR sets and Tecmo Bowl style scores.
There are a glutton of WRs who will be challenging defenses who are handcuffed
by today's rules to catch them if they can. *Groan* goes the audience. Yeah you
all saw that one coming.
In my opinion we are almost to the point where ALL leagues should require 3
WRs to start. In you average, run of the mill, 10 team league if you only
played the top 20 scoring WRs of 2013 you wouldn't have used four receivers who
posted 1,000+ yards receiving and three other receivers who scored 10
TDs!! Let's look at those names:
Michael Floyd, Brian Hartline, Harry Douglas, Kendall Wright, Wes Welker,
Marvin Jones and Jerricho Cotchery. You could win some fantasy games with 3 or
4 of those receivers, no? None were in the Top 20 in standard scoring on ESPN
last year.
Now if you stretched out the field and were forced to own someone between 36-40
we would get:
Eddie Royal, Rod Streater, Doug Baldwin, Greg Jennings and Terrance Williams
(and yet big names like Steve Smith and Dwayne Bowe are still behind them!).
WR is deep enough right now that forcing owners to find that diamond in the
rough makes it more fun rather than just running out Stud A and Stud C vs Stud
B and Stud D. Yawn!
More roster spots everyone!!! Make BYE weeks, trading and waiver wire
pickups mean something. It's just too easy if you don't push WR (and RB for
that matter) past the top 30.
The Ladykillers
I must admit, I didn't enjoy this movie one bit. I saw it in the theaters
and I would rank it in my Top 10 of worst movies I've paid money to see (also
listed - and don't judge me - Freddy Got Fingered, To Die For, The Royal
Tennebaums, Waterworld, The Truth About Cats and Dogs (date), Lady in the
Water, Funny People, Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull and
Star Wars Episode I).
But I'm not here to discuss bad movies, but I am going to point out my
thoughts on the real 'lady killers' of the NFL, your starting QBs of the NFL.
These are the guys who get the head cheerleader, star in all of the commercials
and usually just look the best (face of the franchise for a reason). Even if
you suck, yeah I'm looking at you Christian Ponder, you usually do okay in
life.
Let's start at the top with Peyton Manning who may not be Tom Brady when it
comes to wooing the ladies, but he is the face of the NFL when it comes to
advertising. Between him, Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees you have three stud QBs
and then the position becomes wide open.
This year I'd be willing to lump in Matt Stafford who I think will challenge
for that #3 spot, but even if he falls short he should still produce huge
numbers in Detroit. If you miss out on those four, fear not, there are 6-10
more QBs I think you can win a fantasy championship with:
(In no particular order)
Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, Tony Romo, RGIII, Colin Kaepernick, Jay Cutler,
Andy Dalton, Russell Wilson, Nick Foles, Tom Brady, Matt Ryan and Phillip
Rivers.
That's 16!! QBs who are all worthy of starting on any given Sunday. Sure
there is some wide week-to-week variance of those final dozen, but if you get
them late enough you should be able to make up the points by being stronger at
RB/WR/TE than your opponent who drafted Peyton/Rodgers/Brees/Stafford in Rounds
1-3.
Here's my advice: draft a stud QB if you are stuck on picking between a RB
you don't like or a WR you think you can get in the next round, but wait on QBs
if you are happy with your RB/WR/TE picks in the first six rounds.
Angels & Demons
For my last film of the post I cover one of the movies that came from the
Dan Brown book series where Tom Hanks is the lead character Robert Langdon.
It's like the 'National Treasure' series with Nick Cage only with more religion
and less world history. Either way I'm a sucker for all of these movies where
it's basically good vs. evil and a treasure hunt.
As for how it relates to the NFL, when you draft your team it is all about
maximizing your 'sleepers' AKA 'angels' and minimizing your 'busts' AKA
'demons'. Not too much of a stretch if I do say so myself!
Angels (Sleepers)
QBs: Jay Cutler - He has Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery and Matt Forte. He
played in 10 full games in 2013. The numbers he put up in those games worked
out to be a 4,100+ yard, 30 TD season. He is currently going 16th overall for
QBs on ESPN. He was also on pace for 18 INTs so there is that. He has all the
makings of a top 8 QB in 2014.
Andy Dalton - In his three years
in the NFL, Andy Dalton has started all 48 games for the Cincinnati Bengals.
Each year he has seen his Attempts, Yards, TDs, Yards/Attempt, Team Record and
unfortunately his INTs increase. He signed a new deal and now the question is
whether he has peaked or whether he has one (or more) levels to grow. If the
Bengals can find a TE to emerge and get Gio the ball 70 times out of the backfield,
he may just hit that next upper level. Look for 4,400 yards, 35 TDs and 18 INTs
to get the Bengals into the playoffs for their fourth straight season. That's
better than the 17th overall QB as he is going right now.
RBs: Carlos Hyde - I've already touched on Frank Gore stepping aside
sometime this season due to rest/injury/ineffectiveness. One of these years I'm
bound to be right.
Joique Bell - Do I think Reggie Bush can put together another season of 14+
games while carrying the ball over 200 times?? No, no I do not. I think the
Lions are going to play thing a bit smarter and let Bell tote the rock much
more on 1st and 2nd down and let Bush be the 3rd down, trailing late in the
game back. Bell gets an extra 60 attempts and finishes around 900 yards and 10
TDs. Bush still catches 50 passes and has 6 total TDs, but Bell is the Lions
back I want.
WRs: Terrance Williams - Oh thank heavens that Miles Austin is gone for good
from Dallas. Maybe now they can find someone to lighten the coverage for Dez Bryant
and Jason Witten on the opposite side of the field. He's got a 1,000 yard
season ahead of him with 7 TDs as Dallas will need to score 30+ points a week
to have a chance. Currently he's the 37th WR coming off the board on ESPN.
Riley Cooper - I stay in the NFC East for another WR who showed flashes last
season although he was stuck behind other guys. Well DeSean Jackson is gone and
the Eagles aren't about to stop their high paced, fun and gun style. Somebody
has to pick up the slack as the deep threat option. With Darren Sproles working
underneath, Cooper should find some openings over the top to the tune of double
digits TDs.
TE - Ladarius Green - He has had time to learn from one of the best and now
he takes the lead. He showed some promise in the middle of the season last year
so I know he can do it. Antonio Gates didn't top 50 yards receiving over the
final six weeks of the season as father time was catching up to him. Draft
Green as a backup and watch him explode by Week 5.
Demons (Busts)
QBs: Cam Newton - I know all about his top 4 streak he has going as a
fantasy quarterback. That ends with a bang this year. A diminishing running
attack, the loss of his safety valve in Steve Smith and the off-season surgery
all adds up to an ugly year. Outside of the top 15 for Newton.
Johnny Manziel - Being drafted ahead of Jay Cutler and Andy Dalton. I'm
sorry, but I'm just not on board for fantasy greatness just yet. I love the
enthusiasm, but I think there will be a learning curve than most all rookies go
through. If he had Josh Gordon the whole season, maybe, just maybe I'd get
fully on board.
RBs: Who haven't I named already? Gore, Reggie Bush, DeMarco Murray and
Arian Foster are my big four.
Overall I think this will be a down year for RBs which makes hitting pay
dirt all the more important. Which is why so many people are using their first
two picks on a WR/QB combo and then just loading up on 4-5 middle tier RBs and
hoping to get lucky.
WRs: Andre Johnson - Blame this on Ryan Fitzpatrick. That's all I have and
that's all I need. His numbers come back to Earth this year.
Larry Fitzgerald - His value rebounded last season thanks in large part to
the 10 TDs while not even hitting 1,000 yards receiving (for the second
consecutive season). Third times the charm has he fails to hit even 900 yards
receiving and only 5 TDs.
TE: Outside of Antonio Gates you ask?
Julius Thomas - When something is just too good to be true like last season was
for Thomas, I get a weird feeling. After scoring 8 times in the first 7 weeks
he found the end zone just 4 times over the last 9 weeks including two lost to
injury. Everything won't be all butterflies and rainbows this season in Denver
so temper your expectations.
So that's it for this season. If you have read this you are already 8% of
the way to winning your league! Congrats and please make all checks of your
winnings payable to Jason Wippich.
Good luck and have fun.
Showing posts with label 49ers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 49ers. Show all posts
Saturday, August 9, 2014
Friday, August 9, 2013
John Cusack and 2013 Fantasy Football
For my third annual article of my introduction into the fantasy football season, I have chosen one of my favorite actors. Over the last
30 years, John Cusack has entertained viewing audiences with his quirky sense of humor
and his reluctance (for the most part) to avoid doing a movie just to
cash a Hollywood paycheck. The first movie I truly remember watching
repeatedly was One Crazy Summer when it aired pretty much every other
weekend on my local television stations. Whether it was the animated
sequences or the 'climatic' boat race at the end, it was always a movie
that kept me laughing.
Two movies that I won't touch on in this article, but that are two of my favorite of all time are Being John Malkovich and Grosse Pointe Blank. These are two completely different movies, but both fit the odd ball personality of Cusack characters to a tee. Now, Con Air is not what most would call an Academy Award worthy film, but I can't help watching it every time it is on television. Its the perfect time waster on a lazy Sunday afternoon. Put the bunny back in the box.
Last season I covered Denzel Washington where I definitely had some opportunities for improvement. I undersold the rookie class and overbought the Philadelphia Eagles. Frank Gore still had some gas left in the tank, but Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees once again put up monster numbers. I thought the Tennessee Titans would make some bigger strides and I completely bombed on my Donald Brown breakout prediction.
This season I will be looking back at the career of John Cusack and hopefully give my faithful readers an edge on either what to do or what not to do, depending on how good you think I am at this.
The Raven
I've wanted to watch this movie, but for some reason I haven't gotten around to it, but what better way to start this season than with a look at the defending Super Bowl Champions. Trying to repeat as a champion is difficult in any sport and this year already looks daunting for Baltimore. Gone are two legendary defensive stalwarts in retired linebacker Ray Lewis and free agent (Houston) safety Ed Reed. You have to expect a step back for the defense that has been such a fantasy monster over the last decade. On the other side of the ball, Joe Flacco has a new contract, but he lost veteran (and aging) wide receiver Anquan Boldin to free agency and recently, and far more importantly, emerging tight end Dennis Pitta to injury. In the four years since his rookie year, Flacco has been the model of consistency: mid to upper 3000's in yards passing, low to mid 20's in TD passes and double digit interceptions. Not the sexiest stat line and the main reason he'll never be a consistent fantasy starter. He'll keep Torrey Smith's numbers down, unfortunately, but he is the only receiver with massive upside, if Flacco can put a full season together. Ray Rice is the do it all back for the Ravens and for your fantasy team. There was something to worry about when the Ravens let Vonta Leach go, but he recently re-signed with the club and that cements Rice as a top 5 fantasy pick in my book. With Leach in the backfield with Rice, the numbers have been strikingly alarming. In the two seasons as a starter without Leach, Rice averaged 1908 yards from scrimmage per season while the two seasons with Leach he averaged 1844 yards from scrimmage per season. Wait? What? Doesn't that contradict the value of Leach?? No and here's why, Rice scored just 14 touchdowns without Leach and 25!! with Leach. That is the key number. Leach paves the way for the diminutive Rice inside the five without stealing the touchdowns.
Hot Tub Time Machine
In this comedy, a bunch of old dudes find a way to travel back in time to relive the years when they were young and hip in their own minds. Which aging veteran has one more viable fantasy season left in him like what Tony Gonzalez was able to to do last season for the Falcons (by the way he's definitely got something left)? Outside of Peyton Manning, the QB position is a young mans spot. If I had to take a veteran signal caller with the shot of doing something special, I'd go with Carson Palmer. Why? Two words: Bruce Arians. Oh you thought I was going to say Larry Fitzgerald? He's good, but maybe, just maybe Arians can find the proper scheme for those two to thrive. As for RB's, Frank Gore showed he wasn't ready to pass the torch to LaMichael James or Kendall Hunter just yet. The door is still open for one more season with Hunter injured, but its Reggie Bush (who I personally disowned three years ago) that should be primed to succeed. He loves open space and joins a Lions team that spreads the field like no other. Similar to the role that Darren Sproles has in New Orleans (that Bush was supposed to be), this could be a season of 75 receptions and double digit total touchdowns. Out wide, Dwayne Bowe has suddenly turned 28 before our eyes and his hopes for resurrecting his career rely solely on Andy Reid. The question is whether both of them are washed up or whether Bowe just needed a (once?) great offensive mind. Alex Smith isn't the greatest quarterback, but he should be sufficient enough to lead an above average offense in a weakened division. At tight end, old dudes still shine led by Gonzalez, Jason Witten and Antonio Gates, but its Greg Olsen who once again is primed to shine if only the Panthers use him more wisely. He's a match up nightmare, but he loses too many touchdowns to the run heavy goal line offense of Carolina. If Cam Newton just passes a handful more times inside the 10, Olsen could see his touchdown total climb to 9+ and make him a top five option.
2012
Oh John. I like you and I love end of the world movies, but 2012 just didn't do it for me. Just like the Mayans, the movie missed its mark with audiences. The rookie class of 2012 proved to be unlike the movie and was a complete box office smash hit. Andrew Luck, RGIII, Russell Wilson, Doug Martin, Trent Richardson and even late round sensation Alfred Morris all starred. This years crop of rookies can not and will not match them. As Ralph Wiggum once uttered: 'That's unpossible!' The fact that WR Tavon Austin was the first fantasy worthy choice at pick 12 says it all. There weren't high end, impact ready rookies this season. Now, of course, somebody will step in and shine, but I can't think of too many rookies that I'll spend a valuable pick on this go around. EJ Manuel and Geno Smith will aim to be the next in the line of hybrid quarterbacks a la RGIII and Colin Kaepernick, but unless you're in a deep keeper league, look elsewhere come draft day. The first running back off the board was my favorite college back as a UNC fan, Gio Bernard. He won't be the starter in Cincinnati, but he'll have his chances and could be a Darren Sproles clone in a year or two. Montee Ball is the one to watch as he is on a pass heavy team and will have room to run from day one. If any of the group has the potential to be a fantasy hero, it's him because Denver is going to score and score a lot. Peyton will have to let his rookie back score every once in a while, won't he? I also think Le'veon Bell is in a good spot with Pittsburgh while both Eddie Lacy and Johnathan Franklin will be looking to earn the majority of reps in Green Bay. Rookie wide receivers are usually a must avoid, but everyone is speaking wonders about Texans rookie DeAndre Hopkins. He is on a really good team with a stud receiver in Andre Johnson opposite him and he can catch the ball, no really catch the ball. I am calling him the next Reggie Wayne whom I coveted for years as Marvin Harrison was aging in Indianapolis. That being said, it took Wayne four seasons to have his first 1,000 yard campaign. Back to Austin who is in a good place in St. Louis where his speed will be on full display, but there's no chance he produces to his current ADP which is ahead of the likes of Cecil Shorts and T.Y. Hilton who will be far more productive.
Bullets Over Broadway
I've never been a fan of Woody Allen films (save for Antz) and I've never, ever, ever, been a fan of sports teams in the great state of New York. The fact is I downright loathe every team based out of the Empire State and luckily for me there are three New York based teams in the NFL for me to dislike. Yes, the Buffalo Bills are still both in New York (not Toronto) and still in the NFL. The Giants and the Jets get most of the publicity and seeing as they are co-hosting the Super Bowl this season, all eyes will once again be focused on them. In western New York, the Bills have overhauled the offense dispatching incumbent quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick to Tennessee and bringing in Kevin Kolb and rookie E.J. Manuel. Fred Jackson gave way to C.J. Spiller in the backfield last season and boy did Spiller shine averaging 6.8 yards per TOUCH while accumulating 1,700 yards from scrimmage and he only started 7 games (playing in all 16). The step back at quarterback will hinder his progression this season, but he's the one Bills player to grab. Steve Johnson is already injured and not worth much more than a third receiver on your roster at this point. The Jets have said adieu to the failed Tim Tebow experiment and hopefully they can refocus on football. Of course, I think a distraction to the pig slop that the Jets will roll out might be exactly what the fans will need. When Chris Ivory is your best bet at fantasy gold, you know you'll be struggling. That's not saying Ivory won't be a beast now that he has a chance to shine, but he's an awfully risky choice as a #2 starter in most 12+ team leagues. For the Giants, the picture is much more appetizing. Eli Manning has his stable of weapons back with Victor Cruz re-signing, Hakeem Nicks still fighting bumps and bruises, new tight end Brandon Myers and sleeper pick Rueben Randle to step in when Nicks misses his handful of games. David Wilson and Andre Brown could prove to be a fantasy owners nightmare with a split backfield. Wilson might handle the between the 20's running while Brown will steal away the scores. A disaster in the making barring someone breaking through. Pay close attention to that race during the preseason.
Money For Nothing
A mostly forgettable movie about John Cusack lucking into $1.2 million and his decision on whether to take the money and run or be a good citizen and return it. In the era of big money free agency, there are plenty of players who have parlayed one (or more) good seasons into a big paycheck from another team. Fantasy owners are also fooled easily by the big dollar sign and ignore whether the signing was actually a good fit for both the player and the team. I had high hopes for Percy Harvin (officially a trade, but Minnesota wasn't paying the big bucks) up in Seattle, but his hip injury has derailed his season until at least Thanksgiving. For quarterbacks, there really was nothing to write about. Ryan Fitzpatrick will probably play in a couple of games, but he's Ryan Fitzpatrick, so I'll pass. The running back position has at least one gold member in Steven Jackson. After nearly a decade toiling away in St. Louis, Jackson has been gifted the most idyllic situation he could ask for. He replaces Michael Turner, who, with limited burst left in his legs still mustered 10 rushing touchdowns. Jackson might be just a year younger than Turner, but he will feel seven years younger this season. No longer will he be facing an eight man front. Hell, he'll have his pick of holes with the vertical passing game that Atlanta can throw at defenses. This will be Jackson's last great fantasy year. Reggie Bush has moved on from Miami to Detroit and he is in a very similar situation to Jackson, with a slightly more inconsistent offense. Bush will excel in PPR leagues, but be more than serviceable in all league formats. Ahmad Bradshaw has moved on from the New York Giants to an up and coming offense in Indianapolis. His situation is a bit murkier as even though he can be seen as opening day starter, he'll have to deal with Vick Ballard and the ever disappointing Donald Brown for touches. Running the ball was the biggest opportunity for the Colts as they only scored 11 times on the ground and five of those were by quarterback Andrew Luck. Their top two backs did combine for 1,200 yards which would be a great season for Bradshaw if everything breaks right. Wes Welker is the obvious best wide receiver on a new team this season. He has partnered with long time rival Peyton Manning in Denver as the Broncos gear up to make a Super Bowl run. The only question is how Denver will spread the ball around to their big three receivers. The catches and yardage will be there for Welker, but he could be anywhere from 3-10 touchdowns. Mike Wallace could be a huge smash in Miami, but my 'Spidey-senses' feel it will be more of the same for Wallace as a one trick pony. He runs fast, he runs deep and when he's on, he's great. Too bad Ryan Tannehill hasn't proven himself enough to warrant my seal of approval. Greg Jennings pulled a Brett Favre and jumped from Green Bay to division rival Minnesota. The downward spiral for Jennings has been quick and decisive. Not only is he on the way out, but he has gone from fantasy stud Aaron Rodgers to fantasy enigma Christian Ponder. He's, at best, a third wide receiver in a deep league for me. At tight end Jared Cook is my guy to watch in St. Louis. I have high hopes for a breakout season from him. Martellus Bennett has gone to Chicago and is an interesting sleeper if Jay Cutler can stay upright and learn to once again use his tight end wisely. Bears tight ends caught just 25 passes in 2012 with 3 receiving touchdowns. Bennett will double that.
Shadows and Fog
Another Woody Allen film that I somehow missed. John Cusack wasn't among the top billed cast in this film, but was relegated to a smaller role. Just because a player isn't a starter on opening day, it doesn't mean he won't become a fantasy all-star for the season. Most players that fit this bill might not even be drafted. They will be picked up off the waiver wire in the first few weeks. The draft is just the stepping stone for fantasy owners. Not all the players you draft will be with you come week 12. Through trades, injuries, poor play and the waiver wire, your roster is mostly expendable. Weeks 1-4 are the key time frame to shape your roster into a playoff contender. Think back to Mike Vick a few years ago or Alfred Morris last season. Players come out of nowhere to All-Pro type seasons. Of course for every success off the waiver wire there will be a Kevin Ogletree who exploded last year in Week 1 and only had one more serviceable game over the next 15. This is also the most difficult list to prepare because nobody knows the practice squad guys yet, but I'll pick out a couple of guys and see if I get lucky. Rookies Latavius Murray in Oakland and Joseph Randle in Dallas are in prime positions as backups/third stringers. The veteran starters for their respective teams, Darren McFadden and DeMarco Murray are fragile (they must have Italian heritage). Both will get their chances to step in sometime this season. Roy Helu Jr. in Washington and Shaun Draughn in Kansas City could also find some playing time with the right breaks. Until last season, Redskins coach Mike Shanahan was known to change running backs as often as his underwear. Who is to say he doesn't revert back to that in 2013? Jamaal Charles has the majority of the touches locked up in Kanasas City, but Shaun Draughn was decent with his chances last season and could be a surprise if Charles comes up lame one week. Out wide, Riley Cooper may be a racist, but he is one of the few Eagles currently healthy. DeSean Jackson is a problem child and Jason Avant had zero touchdowns while catching 53 passes a year ago. In Minnesota, Percy Harvin is gone, Greg Jennings is in, but it is rookie Cardarrelle Patterson, that may wind up being the most productive by years end. Who knows if Jennings can stay on the field and Jerome Simpson was awful after his suspension in 2012. The one tight end that might surprise is Jordan Cameron. He has done next to nothing in his career to date, but now with tight end career maker Norv Turner in the house, he'll be given every chance to succeed.
The Grifters
I love movies about con artists and robberies. They could make 100 more Ocean Eleven movies and I'd watch them all. The Sting, Matchstick Men, The Thomas Crown Affair and on and on. Nothing beats a good theft. The same holds true in fantasy football. As an owner you are trying to maximize value out of each pick. Your first round pick should be the league MVP, your third round pick should post first round numbers and most importantly you need to find a breakout star in the sixth or seventh round (eighth or ninth in 10 team leagues). After you've acquired a solid starting lineup through the first handful of rounds, its time to grab players with pure upside. These picks won't cost you any games, but they do have a chance to make your season. Some of the the players that I'm keeping an eye on during the middle rounds are: Ben Tate in Houston, Ryan Williams in Arizona, Golden Tate in Seattle, Greg Little in Cleveland and Rob Housler in Arizona. I think that through injury and poor play in front of them, all five of these players could excel if given the right opportunity. Arian Foster is in trouble this season (so he'll be MVP right?). He has been overused with over 400 touches last season and has been battling injuries all off season. Ben Tate is more than capable as a backup and if I were coaching Houston, I'd be splitting the touches at a 60/40% clip, meaning horrible value for Foster, great value for Tate. Ryan Williams can't stay healthy while Arizona can't find a running back they like. Beanie Wells was shuttled away and Rashard Mendenhall replaced him. Stop laughing. This is Williams job for the taking and the only Cardinals running back I'm even thinking about drafting. Golden Tate has seen his numbers progressively increase over his three year career. Just when it appeared that Seattle was bringing in competition in Percy Harvin, Tate caught a break with the hip injury to Harvin. Still, Tate is being drafted, on average, 30 picks behind teammate Sidney Rice. That is great value for a player that is no worse than a co-number one wide receiver for the Seahawks. Greg Little took a step back in his progression last season thanks in large part to the play of rookie quarterback Brandon Weeden. My reason for hope, outside of the 3rd year receiver golden fantasy rule, is that Little ended 2012 strong with two of his three touchdown receptions. Weeden will have a year of experience and with Josh Gordon missing the first two games, Little will have a chance to get some looks as the go to guy right off the bat. Rob Housler is the starting tight end in Arizona, but he'll be no fantasy owners starter at the start of the season. With Carson Palmer under center for the Cardinals, Housler has to think he is in store for a lot of targets. Brandon Myers caught 79 passes from Palmer last season in Oakland. Housler can do that too.
Eight Men Out
This is one of my favorite sports movies of all time. The mostly true story of the 1919 ChicagoBlack
White Sox who threw the World Series to make some extra money because
of their hatred for owner Charles Comiskey. After taking the money and
intentionally losing the Series, eight players were banned from baseball
forever. Over the years I have banned players from my teams after
being burned one too many times. Yeah I'm looking at you Reggie Bush!
You can now welcome Darren McFadden to the club. This year (outside of
those two) there are eight players I have already crossed off my list
based purely on value versus their current ADP.
1. Rob Gronkowski - Barring a minor medical miracle, this will not be the year of the Gronk. I'm not wasting a third round pick on somebody who very well may miss the first six games of the season. I cannot deny his talent when healthy but he has had far too many surgeries in the last year for my liking.
2. Vernon Davis - I could easily put Jermichael Finley here as well. I just don't know what to do with these two. Davis disappeared when Colin Kaepernick took over and Finley saw 88 balls thrown his way and scored just twice. Two scores while playing on the Packers juggernaut of an offense?? Really?? Donald Driver and Tom Crabtree caught a total of 16 balls for Green Bay last season and had 5 total touchdowns. Meanwhile, Davis had one touchdown in his final 13 regular season games. That's unacceptable and I'm not going to watch and wait to see if the 49ers figure out how to use their best receiver better.
3. Chris Ivory - Well actually the entire Jets squad is nominated here. They look awful. Chris Ivory wasn't good with New Orleans and I am scared to death on how bad he'll be in New York. Simple as that.
4. Steve Johnson - I don't get the fascination with Johnson. It took him 12 weeks last season to hit 100 yards in a game. He's got a rookie quarterback that was overvalued throwing to him. He's already battling injuries. Red flags on the field everywhere. Avoid at all costs.
5. DeSean Jackson - The diva receiver. How I loathe thee. You can add Miles Austin to this spot too. Both of these guys have gutted my teams over the years and I'm done with them. Man up and play the game right. Shut your trap, run your routes, catch the ball and go back to the huddle.
6. Hakeem Nicks - Yes a Tar Heel. Even as a die hard fan of UNC, I'm giving up on Nicks. He can't stay on the field enough for my liking. Such a shame. Prove me wrong.
7. Tom Brady - Too many questions and I never take quarterbacks early, much less ones that have lost every single receiver he trusted in a year before. The quarterback position is so deep this year that there is no reason to reach for someone in such a precarious situation.
8. Maurice Jones-Drew - After being injured and while still playing for the lowly Jaguars, MJD is still being picked in the 3rd round in most leagues. Nope, not going to happen. I'd rather a younger David Wilson or Montee Ball on a much better offense instead.
The Sure Thing
Some say that John Cusack peaked in the '80s thanks to films like this one. Your classic boy wants perfect girl, but is paired up with another, completely opposite girl and you guessed it, they fall for each other. Throw in a road trip and you have the secret recipe for Hollywood success. Last season it seemed like every fantasy draft I did, quarterbacks went flying early and often. In my oldest league, a 14 team draft where the majority of us have been together for 15 years, there were five...count them...five quarterbacks drafted in the first round. That was unprecedented. I can't remember a season where more than two quarterbacks were chosen in round 1. I snagged an unknown rookie named RGIII in the sixth round which worked out nicely. Too bad I screwed up my first five picks so royally he couldn't salvage my season. This season the quarterback position is as deep as ever. In addition to Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees and Tom Brady who were by far and away the sure thing in 2012, Peyton Manning and Cam Newton returned to form. Matt Stafford might not have matched his 2011 campaign, but Detroit has Megatron and he throws 40 times a game. Rookies RGIII, Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson blew away any predictions and Colin Kaepernick came from off the bench to guide his team to a Super Bowl. Then there's Eli Manning and Tony Romo, two NFC East quarterbacks that put up good numbers and continue to be undervalued year in and year out. Last, and certainly not least, is Matt Ryan who was my preseason MVP choice last season, and he'll be in the running this season for the high flying Falcons. That's 13 top notch starting quarterbacks for any fantasy team. A glutton of a sure thing. Here's my advice for you when drafting...wait for a quarterback. I say it every year and it used to be a very risky proposition, but this season there is no need to take a quarterback until past pick 60 at the earliest. In a 10 team league you could even wait until the 8th or 9th round and still grab Luck or Eli and be quite happy.
Say Anything
The last great 80s comedy that John Cusack did is fitting for my closing rant. I'm going to stand outside your window with boombox in hand and rant all season. It's what I do. I've been doing fantasy football since the mid 1990's when the Bills were the preeminent offensive team. Here's my list of advice for people just getting into fantasy football or those looking to get better:
1. Immerse yourself into the world of football in preparing for your draft. Leave no stone unturned. Learn the rosters, the depth charts, the rookies, the veterans. A fantasy roster is not just about the starters in Week 1, its about having the players on your bench that will emerge in weeks 4 through 8.
2. Be active, if not overly active. You are the GM of a team and just like real GM's, be ready to move players to make your team better. Unless you're in a keeper league, you have just one shot with your roster. Don't get attached to anyone. If you see an opportunity to make your roster better, do it.
3. Have fun. I'm in a friends league where there is one bad apple who constantly brings down the morale of the league with his disgraceful banter on the league message boards. He fights with every owner, offers horrible trades and thinks he is God's gift to fantasy football. There's a reason you're playing in a $50 league sir, nobody has it all figured out. We all make mistakes, but some of us are humble enough to ride out the bad seasons in the same manner that we enjoy the good ones.
4. Draft with your brain and not with your heart. I'm a Redskins fan and in my keeper league I'm keeping two Seahawks (who ended Washington's season) and a Cowboy (hated rival). I play to win the game! Last season was awesome having RGIII and Alfred Morris on the same fantasy team while watching Washington streak towards the playoffs. That doesn't happen often and I'm not going to force it this season. Draft the best available player whether you hate his team or not.
5. Remember every league is different. The owners act differently. The scoring is different. League size varies. Each draft is different. My three primary leagues consist of a 14 team, in person, snake draft with the caveat of our 3rd round is reversed. This means we go 1-14, 14-1 and then 14-1 again in round 3. The next league is an online, 10 team, snake draft with the caveat of being a PPR (points per reception) league. My last league is an in person, 10 team, keeper league, with the caveat of it being an auction league. That's where each owner has a salary cap and every non-keeper is available for purchase at the right price. There are a million ways to run a league. Try them all.
Good luck this season.
Two movies that I won't touch on in this article, but that are two of my favorite of all time are Being John Malkovich and Grosse Pointe Blank. These are two completely different movies, but both fit the odd ball personality of Cusack characters to a tee. Now, Con Air is not what most would call an Academy Award worthy film, but I can't help watching it every time it is on television. Its the perfect time waster on a lazy Sunday afternoon. Put the bunny back in the box.
Last season I covered Denzel Washington where I definitely had some opportunities for improvement. I undersold the rookie class and overbought the Philadelphia Eagles. Frank Gore still had some gas left in the tank, but Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees once again put up monster numbers. I thought the Tennessee Titans would make some bigger strides and I completely bombed on my Donald Brown breakout prediction.
This season I will be looking back at the career of John Cusack and hopefully give my faithful readers an edge on either what to do or what not to do, depending on how good you think I am at this.
The Raven
I've wanted to watch this movie, but for some reason I haven't gotten around to it, but what better way to start this season than with a look at the defending Super Bowl Champions. Trying to repeat as a champion is difficult in any sport and this year already looks daunting for Baltimore. Gone are two legendary defensive stalwarts in retired linebacker Ray Lewis and free agent (Houston) safety Ed Reed. You have to expect a step back for the defense that has been such a fantasy monster over the last decade. On the other side of the ball, Joe Flacco has a new contract, but he lost veteran (and aging) wide receiver Anquan Boldin to free agency and recently, and far more importantly, emerging tight end Dennis Pitta to injury. In the four years since his rookie year, Flacco has been the model of consistency: mid to upper 3000's in yards passing, low to mid 20's in TD passes and double digit interceptions. Not the sexiest stat line and the main reason he'll never be a consistent fantasy starter. He'll keep Torrey Smith's numbers down, unfortunately, but he is the only receiver with massive upside, if Flacco can put a full season together. Ray Rice is the do it all back for the Ravens and for your fantasy team. There was something to worry about when the Ravens let Vonta Leach go, but he recently re-signed with the club and that cements Rice as a top 5 fantasy pick in my book. With Leach in the backfield with Rice, the numbers have been strikingly alarming. In the two seasons as a starter without Leach, Rice averaged 1908 yards from scrimmage per season while the two seasons with Leach he averaged 1844 yards from scrimmage per season. Wait? What? Doesn't that contradict the value of Leach?? No and here's why, Rice scored just 14 touchdowns without Leach and 25!! with Leach. That is the key number. Leach paves the way for the diminutive Rice inside the five without stealing the touchdowns.
Hot Tub Time Machine
In this comedy, a bunch of old dudes find a way to travel back in time to relive the years when they were young and hip in their own minds. Which aging veteran has one more viable fantasy season left in him like what Tony Gonzalez was able to to do last season for the Falcons (by the way he's definitely got something left)? Outside of Peyton Manning, the QB position is a young mans spot. If I had to take a veteran signal caller with the shot of doing something special, I'd go with Carson Palmer. Why? Two words: Bruce Arians. Oh you thought I was going to say Larry Fitzgerald? He's good, but maybe, just maybe Arians can find the proper scheme for those two to thrive. As for RB's, Frank Gore showed he wasn't ready to pass the torch to LaMichael James or Kendall Hunter just yet. The door is still open for one more season with Hunter injured, but its Reggie Bush (who I personally disowned three years ago) that should be primed to succeed. He loves open space and joins a Lions team that spreads the field like no other. Similar to the role that Darren Sproles has in New Orleans (that Bush was supposed to be), this could be a season of 75 receptions and double digit total touchdowns. Out wide, Dwayne Bowe has suddenly turned 28 before our eyes and his hopes for resurrecting his career rely solely on Andy Reid. The question is whether both of them are washed up or whether Bowe just needed a (once?) great offensive mind. Alex Smith isn't the greatest quarterback, but he should be sufficient enough to lead an above average offense in a weakened division. At tight end, old dudes still shine led by Gonzalez, Jason Witten and Antonio Gates, but its Greg Olsen who once again is primed to shine if only the Panthers use him more wisely. He's a match up nightmare, but he loses too many touchdowns to the run heavy goal line offense of Carolina. If Cam Newton just passes a handful more times inside the 10, Olsen could see his touchdown total climb to 9+ and make him a top five option.
2012
Oh John. I like you and I love end of the world movies, but 2012 just didn't do it for me. Just like the Mayans, the movie missed its mark with audiences. The rookie class of 2012 proved to be unlike the movie and was a complete box office smash hit. Andrew Luck, RGIII, Russell Wilson, Doug Martin, Trent Richardson and even late round sensation Alfred Morris all starred. This years crop of rookies can not and will not match them. As Ralph Wiggum once uttered: 'That's unpossible!' The fact that WR Tavon Austin was the first fantasy worthy choice at pick 12 says it all. There weren't high end, impact ready rookies this season. Now, of course, somebody will step in and shine, but I can't think of too many rookies that I'll spend a valuable pick on this go around. EJ Manuel and Geno Smith will aim to be the next in the line of hybrid quarterbacks a la RGIII and Colin Kaepernick, but unless you're in a deep keeper league, look elsewhere come draft day. The first running back off the board was my favorite college back as a UNC fan, Gio Bernard. He won't be the starter in Cincinnati, but he'll have his chances and could be a Darren Sproles clone in a year or two. Montee Ball is the one to watch as he is on a pass heavy team and will have room to run from day one. If any of the group has the potential to be a fantasy hero, it's him because Denver is going to score and score a lot. Peyton will have to let his rookie back score every once in a while, won't he? I also think Le'veon Bell is in a good spot with Pittsburgh while both Eddie Lacy and Johnathan Franklin will be looking to earn the majority of reps in Green Bay. Rookie wide receivers are usually a must avoid, but everyone is speaking wonders about Texans rookie DeAndre Hopkins. He is on a really good team with a stud receiver in Andre Johnson opposite him and he can catch the ball, no really catch the ball. I am calling him the next Reggie Wayne whom I coveted for years as Marvin Harrison was aging in Indianapolis. That being said, it took Wayne four seasons to have his first 1,000 yard campaign. Back to Austin who is in a good place in St. Louis where his speed will be on full display, but there's no chance he produces to his current ADP which is ahead of the likes of Cecil Shorts and T.Y. Hilton who will be far more productive.
Bullets Over Broadway
I've never been a fan of Woody Allen films (save for Antz) and I've never, ever, ever, been a fan of sports teams in the great state of New York. The fact is I downright loathe every team based out of the Empire State and luckily for me there are three New York based teams in the NFL for me to dislike. Yes, the Buffalo Bills are still both in New York (not Toronto) and still in the NFL. The Giants and the Jets get most of the publicity and seeing as they are co-hosting the Super Bowl this season, all eyes will once again be focused on them. In western New York, the Bills have overhauled the offense dispatching incumbent quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick to Tennessee and bringing in Kevin Kolb and rookie E.J. Manuel. Fred Jackson gave way to C.J. Spiller in the backfield last season and boy did Spiller shine averaging 6.8 yards per TOUCH while accumulating 1,700 yards from scrimmage and he only started 7 games (playing in all 16). The step back at quarterback will hinder his progression this season, but he's the one Bills player to grab. Steve Johnson is already injured and not worth much more than a third receiver on your roster at this point. The Jets have said adieu to the failed Tim Tebow experiment and hopefully they can refocus on football. Of course, I think a distraction to the pig slop that the Jets will roll out might be exactly what the fans will need. When Chris Ivory is your best bet at fantasy gold, you know you'll be struggling. That's not saying Ivory won't be a beast now that he has a chance to shine, but he's an awfully risky choice as a #2 starter in most 12+ team leagues. For the Giants, the picture is much more appetizing. Eli Manning has his stable of weapons back with Victor Cruz re-signing, Hakeem Nicks still fighting bumps and bruises, new tight end Brandon Myers and sleeper pick Rueben Randle to step in when Nicks misses his handful of games. David Wilson and Andre Brown could prove to be a fantasy owners nightmare with a split backfield. Wilson might handle the between the 20's running while Brown will steal away the scores. A disaster in the making barring someone breaking through. Pay close attention to that race during the preseason.
Money For Nothing
A mostly forgettable movie about John Cusack lucking into $1.2 million and his decision on whether to take the money and run or be a good citizen and return it. In the era of big money free agency, there are plenty of players who have parlayed one (or more) good seasons into a big paycheck from another team. Fantasy owners are also fooled easily by the big dollar sign and ignore whether the signing was actually a good fit for both the player and the team. I had high hopes for Percy Harvin (officially a trade, but Minnesota wasn't paying the big bucks) up in Seattle, but his hip injury has derailed his season until at least Thanksgiving. For quarterbacks, there really was nothing to write about. Ryan Fitzpatrick will probably play in a couple of games, but he's Ryan Fitzpatrick, so I'll pass. The running back position has at least one gold member in Steven Jackson. After nearly a decade toiling away in St. Louis, Jackson has been gifted the most idyllic situation he could ask for. He replaces Michael Turner, who, with limited burst left in his legs still mustered 10 rushing touchdowns. Jackson might be just a year younger than Turner, but he will feel seven years younger this season. No longer will he be facing an eight man front. Hell, he'll have his pick of holes with the vertical passing game that Atlanta can throw at defenses. This will be Jackson's last great fantasy year. Reggie Bush has moved on from Miami to Detroit and he is in a very similar situation to Jackson, with a slightly more inconsistent offense. Bush will excel in PPR leagues, but be more than serviceable in all league formats. Ahmad Bradshaw has moved on from the New York Giants to an up and coming offense in Indianapolis. His situation is a bit murkier as even though he can be seen as opening day starter, he'll have to deal with Vick Ballard and the ever disappointing Donald Brown for touches. Running the ball was the biggest opportunity for the Colts as they only scored 11 times on the ground and five of those were by quarterback Andrew Luck. Their top two backs did combine for 1,200 yards which would be a great season for Bradshaw if everything breaks right. Wes Welker is the obvious best wide receiver on a new team this season. He has partnered with long time rival Peyton Manning in Denver as the Broncos gear up to make a Super Bowl run. The only question is how Denver will spread the ball around to their big three receivers. The catches and yardage will be there for Welker, but he could be anywhere from 3-10 touchdowns. Mike Wallace could be a huge smash in Miami, but my 'Spidey-senses' feel it will be more of the same for Wallace as a one trick pony. He runs fast, he runs deep and when he's on, he's great. Too bad Ryan Tannehill hasn't proven himself enough to warrant my seal of approval. Greg Jennings pulled a Brett Favre and jumped from Green Bay to division rival Minnesota. The downward spiral for Jennings has been quick and decisive. Not only is he on the way out, but he has gone from fantasy stud Aaron Rodgers to fantasy enigma Christian Ponder. He's, at best, a third wide receiver in a deep league for me. At tight end Jared Cook is my guy to watch in St. Louis. I have high hopes for a breakout season from him. Martellus Bennett has gone to Chicago and is an interesting sleeper if Jay Cutler can stay upright and learn to once again use his tight end wisely. Bears tight ends caught just 25 passes in 2012 with 3 receiving touchdowns. Bennett will double that.
Shadows and Fog
Another Woody Allen film that I somehow missed. John Cusack wasn't among the top billed cast in this film, but was relegated to a smaller role. Just because a player isn't a starter on opening day, it doesn't mean he won't become a fantasy all-star for the season. Most players that fit this bill might not even be drafted. They will be picked up off the waiver wire in the first few weeks. The draft is just the stepping stone for fantasy owners. Not all the players you draft will be with you come week 12. Through trades, injuries, poor play and the waiver wire, your roster is mostly expendable. Weeks 1-4 are the key time frame to shape your roster into a playoff contender. Think back to Mike Vick a few years ago or Alfred Morris last season. Players come out of nowhere to All-Pro type seasons. Of course for every success off the waiver wire there will be a Kevin Ogletree who exploded last year in Week 1 and only had one more serviceable game over the next 15. This is also the most difficult list to prepare because nobody knows the practice squad guys yet, but I'll pick out a couple of guys and see if I get lucky. Rookies Latavius Murray in Oakland and Joseph Randle in Dallas are in prime positions as backups/third stringers. The veteran starters for their respective teams, Darren McFadden and DeMarco Murray are fragile (they must have Italian heritage). Both will get their chances to step in sometime this season. Roy Helu Jr. in Washington and Shaun Draughn in Kansas City could also find some playing time with the right breaks. Until last season, Redskins coach Mike Shanahan was known to change running backs as often as his underwear. Who is to say he doesn't revert back to that in 2013? Jamaal Charles has the majority of the touches locked up in Kanasas City, but Shaun Draughn was decent with his chances last season and could be a surprise if Charles comes up lame one week. Out wide, Riley Cooper may be a racist, but he is one of the few Eagles currently healthy. DeSean Jackson is a problem child and Jason Avant had zero touchdowns while catching 53 passes a year ago. In Minnesota, Percy Harvin is gone, Greg Jennings is in, but it is rookie Cardarrelle Patterson, that may wind up being the most productive by years end. Who knows if Jennings can stay on the field and Jerome Simpson was awful after his suspension in 2012. The one tight end that might surprise is Jordan Cameron. He has done next to nothing in his career to date, but now with tight end career maker Norv Turner in the house, he'll be given every chance to succeed.
The Grifters
I love movies about con artists and robberies. They could make 100 more Ocean Eleven movies and I'd watch them all. The Sting, Matchstick Men, The Thomas Crown Affair and on and on. Nothing beats a good theft. The same holds true in fantasy football. As an owner you are trying to maximize value out of each pick. Your first round pick should be the league MVP, your third round pick should post first round numbers and most importantly you need to find a breakout star in the sixth or seventh round (eighth or ninth in 10 team leagues). After you've acquired a solid starting lineup through the first handful of rounds, its time to grab players with pure upside. These picks won't cost you any games, but they do have a chance to make your season. Some of the the players that I'm keeping an eye on during the middle rounds are: Ben Tate in Houston, Ryan Williams in Arizona, Golden Tate in Seattle, Greg Little in Cleveland and Rob Housler in Arizona. I think that through injury and poor play in front of them, all five of these players could excel if given the right opportunity. Arian Foster is in trouble this season (so he'll be MVP right?). He has been overused with over 400 touches last season and has been battling injuries all off season. Ben Tate is more than capable as a backup and if I were coaching Houston, I'd be splitting the touches at a 60/40% clip, meaning horrible value for Foster, great value for Tate. Ryan Williams can't stay healthy while Arizona can't find a running back they like. Beanie Wells was shuttled away and Rashard Mendenhall replaced him. Stop laughing. This is Williams job for the taking and the only Cardinals running back I'm even thinking about drafting. Golden Tate has seen his numbers progressively increase over his three year career. Just when it appeared that Seattle was bringing in competition in Percy Harvin, Tate caught a break with the hip injury to Harvin. Still, Tate is being drafted, on average, 30 picks behind teammate Sidney Rice. That is great value for a player that is no worse than a co-number one wide receiver for the Seahawks. Greg Little took a step back in his progression last season thanks in large part to the play of rookie quarterback Brandon Weeden. My reason for hope, outside of the 3rd year receiver golden fantasy rule, is that Little ended 2012 strong with two of his three touchdown receptions. Weeden will have a year of experience and with Josh Gordon missing the first two games, Little will have a chance to get some looks as the go to guy right off the bat. Rob Housler is the starting tight end in Arizona, but he'll be no fantasy owners starter at the start of the season. With Carson Palmer under center for the Cardinals, Housler has to think he is in store for a lot of targets. Brandon Myers caught 79 passes from Palmer last season in Oakland. Housler can do that too.
Eight Men Out
This is one of my favorite sports movies of all time. The mostly true story of the 1919 Chicago
1. Rob Gronkowski - Barring a minor medical miracle, this will not be the year of the Gronk. I'm not wasting a third round pick on somebody who very well may miss the first six games of the season. I cannot deny his talent when healthy but he has had far too many surgeries in the last year for my liking.
2. Vernon Davis - I could easily put Jermichael Finley here as well. I just don't know what to do with these two. Davis disappeared when Colin Kaepernick took over and Finley saw 88 balls thrown his way and scored just twice. Two scores while playing on the Packers juggernaut of an offense?? Really?? Donald Driver and Tom Crabtree caught a total of 16 balls for Green Bay last season and had 5 total touchdowns. Meanwhile, Davis had one touchdown in his final 13 regular season games. That's unacceptable and I'm not going to watch and wait to see if the 49ers figure out how to use their best receiver better.
3. Chris Ivory - Well actually the entire Jets squad is nominated here. They look awful. Chris Ivory wasn't good with New Orleans and I am scared to death on how bad he'll be in New York. Simple as that.
4. Steve Johnson - I don't get the fascination with Johnson. It took him 12 weeks last season to hit 100 yards in a game. He's got a rookie quarterback that was overvalued throwing to him. He's already battling injuries. Red flags on the field everywhere. Avoid at all costs.
5. DeSean Jackson - The diva receiver. How I loathe thee. You can add Miles Austin to this spot too. Both of these guys have gutted my teams over the years and I'm done with them. Man up and play the game right. Shut your trap, run your routes, catch the ball and go back to the huddle.
6. Hakeem Nicks - Yes a Tar Heel. Even as a die hard fan of UNC, I'm giving up on Nicks. He can't stay on the field enough for my liking. Such a shame. Prove me wrong.
7. Tom Brady - Too many questions and I never take quarterbacks early, much less ones that have lost every single receiver he trusted in a year before. The quarterback position is so deep this year that there is no reason to reach for someone in such a precarious situation.
8. Maurice Jones-Drew - After being injured and while still playing for the lowly Jaguars, MJD is still being picked in the 3rd round in most leagues. Nope, not going to happen. I'd rather a younger David Wilson or Montee Ball on a much better offense instead.
The Sure Thing
Some say that John Cusack peaked in the '80s thanks to films like this one. Your classic boy wants perfect girl, but is paired up with another, completely opposite girl and you guessed it, they fall for each other. Throw in a road trip and you have the secret recipe for Hollywood success. Last season it seemed like every fantasy draft I did, quarterbacks went flying early and often. In my oldest league, a 14 team draft where the majority of us have been together for 15 years, there were five...count them...five quarterbacks drafted in the first round. That was unprecedented. I can't remember a season where more than two quarterbacks were chosen in round 1. I snagged an unknown rookie named RGIII in the sixth round which worked out nicely. Too bad I screwed up my first five picks so royally he couldn't salvage my season. This season the quarterback position is as deep as ever. In addition to Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees and Tom Brady who were by far and away the sure thing in 2012, Peyton Manning and Cam Newton returned to form. Matt Stafford might not have matched his 2011 campaign, but Detroit has Megatron and he throws 40 times a game. Rookies RGIII, Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson blew away any predictions and Colin Kaepernick came from off the bench to guide his team to a Super Bowl. Then there's Eli Manning and Tony Romo, two NFC East quarterbacks that put up good numbers and continue to be undervalued year in and year out. Last, and certainly not least, is Matt Ryan who was my preseason MVP choice last season, and he'll be in the running this season for the high flying Falcons. That's 13 top notch starting quarterbacks for any fantasy team. A glutton of a sure thing. Here's my advice for you when drafting...wait for a quarterback. I say it every year and it used to be a very risky proposition, but this season there is no need to take a quarterback until past pick 60 at the earliest. In a 10 team league you could even wait until the 8th or 9th round and still grab Luck or Eli and be quite happy.
Say Anything
The last great 80s comedy that John Cusack did is fitting for my closing rant. I'm going to stand outside your window with boombox in hand and rant all season. It's what I do. I've been doing fantasy football since the mid 1990's when the Bills were the preeminent offensive team. Here's my list of advice for people just getting into fantasy football or those looking to get better:
1. Immerse yourself into the world of football in preparing for your draft. Leave no stone unturned. Learn the rosters, the depth charts, the rookies, the veterans. A fantasy roster is not just about the starters in Week 1, its about having the players on your bench that will emerge in weeks 4 through 8.
2. Be active, if not overly active. You are the GM of a team and just like real GM's, be ready to move players to make your team better. Unless you're in a keeper league, you have just one shot with your roster. Don't get attached to anyone. If you see an opportunity to make your roster better, do it.
3. Have fun. I'm in a friends league where there is one bad apple who constantly brings down the morale of the league with his disgraceful banter on the league message boards. He fights with every owner, offers horrible trades and thinks he is God's gift to fantasy football. There's a reason you're playing in a $50 league sir, nobody has it all figured out. We all make mistakes, but some of us are humble enough to ride out the bad seasons in the same manner that we enjoy the good ones.
4. Draft with your brain and not with your heart. I'm a Redskins fan and in my keeper league I'm keeping two Seahawks (who ended Washington's season) and a Cowboy (hated rival). I play to win the game! Last season was awesome having RGIII and Alfred Morris on the same fantasy team while watching Washington streak towards the playoffs. That doesn't happen often and I'm not going to force it this season. Draft the best available player whether you hate his team or not.
5. Remember every league is different. The owners act differently. The scoring is different. League size varies. Each draft is different. My three primary leagues consist of a 14 team, in person, snake draft with the caveat of our 3rd round is reversed. This means we go 1-14, 14-1 and then 14-1 again in round 3. The next league is an online, 10 team, snake draft with the caveat of being a PPR (points per reception) league. My last league is an in person, 10 team, keeper league, with the caveat of it being an auction league. That's where each owner has a salary cap and every non-keeper is available for purchase at the right price. There are a million ways to run a league. Try them all.
Good luck this season.
Monday, February 4, 2013
NFL Recap
Congratulations to the Baltimore Ravens on winning the Super Bowl over the San Francisco 49ers. Whether you doubt the legality of having injured superstars Ray Lewis and Terrell Suggs back so soon or not, the Ravens will go down in history as champions. The 49ers franchise suffered their first ever loss in the Super Bowl after five victories, but Colin Kaepernick looks to give them a shot at getting back there again.
I did my 2nd annual NFL Crystal Ball right before the season and now it is time to see how I did.
1st prediction was that RGIII would play in 16 games. Correct!! Yeah, yeah he missed a game, but played in a playoff game so 16 games it was.
2nd prediction that Norv Turner wouldn't make it as head coach of the Chargers past their Bye Week in Week 7. 1/2 points! He was dead coach walking by that time and was finally fired after the season.
Standings Predictions: (actual records in parenthesis)
NFC East
Philadelphia Eagles 12-4 (4-12)
Dallas Cowboys 10-6 (8-8)
New York Giants 9-7 (9-7)
Washington Redskins 6-10 (10-6)
NFC North
Green Bay Packers 14-2 (11-5)
Chicago Bears 11-5 (10-6)
Detroit Lions 8-8 (4-12)
Minnesota Vikings 4-12 (10-6)
NFC South
Atlanta Falcons 13-3 (13-3)
New Orleans Saints 10-6 (7-9)
Carolina Panthers 7-9 (7-9)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3-13 (7-9)
NFC West
San Francisco 49ers 11-5 (11-4-1)
Seattle Seahawks 5-11 (11-5)
St. Louis Rams 5-11 (7-8-1)
Arizona Cardinals 4-12 (5-11)
AFC East
New England Patriots 13-3 (12-4)
New York Jets 10-6 (6-10)
Buffalo Bills 6-10 (6-10)
Miami Dolphins 6-10 (7-9)
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens 12-4 (10-6)
Pittsburgh Steelers 9-7 (8-8)
Cincinnati Bengals 9-7 (10-6)
Cleveland Browns 2-14 (5-11)
AFC South
Houston Texans 12-4 (12-4)
Tennessee Titans 7-9 (6-10)
Indianapolis Colts 6-10 (11-5)
Jacksonville Jaguars 2-14 (2-14)
AFC West
Denver Broncos 11-5 (13-3)
Oakland Raiders 8-8 (4-12)
Kansas City Chiefs 7-9 (2-14)
San Diego Chargers 4-12 (7-9)
Hit and miss obviously. I did get 7 of the 8 division winners correct missing only my Washington Redskins. Biggest misses were the Philadelphia Eagles and Seattle Seahawks in the NFC and Kansas City Chiefs and both the New York Jets and Indianapolis Colts in the AFC.
I predicted Tom Brady to win the MVP over Matt Ryan and while they both had good seasons it was Adrian Peterson who won the award over Peyton Manning. Two huge injury risks heading into the season somehow not only managed to stay healthy, but perform well beyond expectations. Deer antler spray for everyone!!!
In my Suprises/Breakouts section I chose:
Jake Locker- 2/10 Locker played in just 11 games and totaled 11 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. A mid-season injury derailed any possibility at building upon a promising finish to the 2011 season.
Jeremy Maclin- 6/10 A good bounce back season for Maclin who still produced as the city of Philadelphia was burning down around him. He still didn't match the 2010 season though.
Donald Brown- 0/10 Ugh. I hitched my ride to him this season and was burnt badly. After 3 years of steady progression, Brown took a major step backwards in his now fledgling career.
Torrey Smith- 4/10 Even with 15 more targets than last season, Smith's numbers were practically identical to 2011. He continues to be high risk/high reward for fantasy owners.
Vernon Davis- 1/10 It took until the playoffs to see the 49ers finally use Davis properly, but he was a major fantasy disappointment all regular season.
In my Disappointments section I chose:
Maurice Jones-Drew- 10/10 When will RB's learn not to hold out. MJD suffered through a terrible season all stemming back to not being at practice.
Ryan Mathews- 9/10 He started injured, ended injured and didn't do much in between scoring just once in a forgettable season.
Vincent Jackson- 0/10 A new team rejuvenated Jackson who had a career high in receiving yardage and caught 8 touchdowns...oops!
Victor Cruz- 4/10 His receiving yardage dropped by nearly 500 yards, but he still hauled in 10 touchdowns which was one more than last year.
Matthew Stafford- 8/10 His TD's were cut in half while throwing one more INT than last year. He still threw for nearly 5,000 useless yards.
The Playoffs:
I went 7/12 (all division winners) and missed both Super Bowl participants (Houston over Atlanta in mine).
Not horrible, but not great.
The emergence of Colin Kaepernick, RGIII and Russell Wilson to how the quarterback position is played is what I will take away from this season. All three did things that I didn't think were possible while pocket passers like Brady, Brees and Manning still produced big numbers. It's a special era we're witnessing for quarterback play. The quarterback position will be DEEP in fantasy football next season...wait, wait and wait for one to fall.
Early prediction for Super Bowl 48 that will probably change by September: Denver over Seattle as Manning pulls off a Ray Lewis and rides off into the sunset on top.
I did my 2nd annual NFL Crystal Ball right before the season and now it is time to see how I did.
1st prediction was that RGIII would play in 16 games. Correct!! Yeah, yeah he missed a game, but played in a playoff game so 16 games it was.
2nd prediction that Norv Turner wouldn't make it as head coach of the Chargers past their Bye Week in Week 7. 1/2 points! He was dead coach walking by that time and was finally fired after the season.
Standings Predictions: (actual records in parenthesis)
NFC East
Philadelphia Eagles 12-4 (4-12)
Dallas Cowboys 10-6 (8-8)
New York Giants 9-7 (9-7)
Washington Redskins 6-10 (10-6)
NFC North
Green Bay Packers 14-2 (11-5)
Chicago Bears 11-5 (10-6)
Detroit Lions 8-8 (4-12)
Minnesota Vikings 4-12 (10-6)
NFC South
Atlanta Falcons 13-3 (13-3)
New Orleans Saints 10-6 (7-9)
Carolina Panthers 7-9 (7-9)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3-13 (7-9)
NFC West
San Francisco 49ers 11-5 (11-4-1)
Seattle Seahawks 5-11 (11-5)
St. Louis Rams 5-11 (7-8-1)
Arizona Cardinals 4-12 (5-11)
AFC East
New England Patriots 13-3 (12-4)
New York Jets 10-6 (6-10)
Buffalo Bills 6-10 (6-10)
Miami Dolphins 6-10 (7-9)
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens 12-4 (10-6)
Pittsburgh Steelers 9-7 (8-8)
Cincinnati Bengals 9-7 (10-6)
Cleveland Browns 2-14 (5-11)
AFC South
Houston Texans 12-4 (12-4)
Tennessee Titans 7-9 (6-10)
Indianapolis Colts 6-10 (11-5)
Jacksonville Jaguars 2-14 (2-14)
AFC West
Denver Broncos 11-5 (13-3)
Oakland Raiders 8-8 (4-12)
Kansas City Chiefs 7-9 (2-14)
San Diego Chargers 4-12 (7-9)
Hit and miss obviously. I did get 7 of the 8 division winners correct missing only my Washington Redskins. Biggest misses were the Philadelphia Eagles and Seattle Seahawks in the NFC and Kansas City Chiefs and both the New York Jets and Indianapolis Colts in the AFC.
I predicted Tom Brady to win the MVP over Matt Ryan and while they both had good seasons it was Adrian Peterson who won the award over Peyton Manning. Two huge injury risks heading into the season somehow not only managed to stay healthy, but perform well beyond expectations. Deer antler spray for everyone!!!
In my Suprises/Breakouts section I chose:
Jake Locker- 2/10 Locker played in just 11 games and totaled 11 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. A mid-season injury derailed any possibility at building upon a promising finish to the 2011 season.
Jeremy Maclin- 6/10 A good bounce back season for Maclin who still produced as the city of Philadelphia was burning down around him. He still didn't match the 2010 season though.
Donald Brown- 0/10 Ugh. I hitched my ride to him this season and was burnt badly. After 3 years of steady progression, Brown took a major step backwards in his now fledgling career.
Torrey Smith- 4/10 Even with 15 more targets than last season, Smith's numbers were practically identical to 2011. He continues to be high risk/high reward for fantasy owners.
Vernon Davis- 1/10 It took until the playoffs to see the 49ers finally use Davis properly, but he was a major fantasy disappointment all regular season.
In my Disappointments section I chose:
Maurice Jones-Drew- 10/10 When will RB's learn not to hold out. MJD suffered through a terrible season all stemming back to not being at practice.
Ryan Mathews- 9/10 He started injured, ended injured and didn't do much in between scoring just once in a forgettable season.
Vincent Jackson- 0/10 A new team rejuvenated Jackson who had a career high in receiving yardage and caught 8 touchdowns...oops!
Victor Cruz- 4/10 His receiving yardage dropped by nearly 500 yards, but he still hauled in 10 touchdowns which was one more than last year.
Matthew Stafford- 8/10 His TD's were cut in half while throwing one more INT than last year. He still threw for nearly 5,000 useless yards.
The Playoffs:
I went 7/12 (all division winners) and missed both Super Bowl participants (Houston over Atlanta in mine).
Not horrible, but not great.
The emergence of Colin Kaepernick, RGIII and Russell Wilson to how the quarterback position is played is what I will take away from this season. All three did things that I didn't think were possible while pocket passers like Brady, Brees and Manning still produced big numbers. It's a special era we're witnessing for quarterback play. The quarterback position will be DEEP in fantasy football next season...wait, wait and wait for one to fall.
Early prediction for Super Bowl 48 that will probably change by September: Denver over Seattle as Manning pulls off a Ray Lewis and rides off into the sunset on top.
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