Does This Make Me a Bad Fan?

I am a die hard Washington Redskins fan.

I am old enough to remember watching two of the three Super Bowls in their franchise history.

I have sat through the last 23 mostly pointless seasons.

I cried when Sean Taylor died.

I cried after Chris Cooley scored three times while I was at my first live Redskins v Cowboys games which was just days after my cousin died in a car accident.

I bought a RGIII jersey for me and my newborn son and had him on my fantasy team during that magical 2012 run.

I would be happy if the 2015 Redskins lost two of their final three games this season.

You read correctly and no this does not make me a bad fan. At 6-7 the Redskins are in the catbird seat of a very underwhelming NFC East. In my mind they have already matched expectations going into the season. Would a 9-7 season and a division crown be great? Sure, of course it would. But, and this is a big but, this team is not winning a Super Bowl. They still have far too many holes, have suffered too many injuries that crippled their growing depth and just cannot compete against the best the NFL has to offer. We have already seen them get outscored by the two Super Bowl favorites (the Panthers/Patriots) 71-26. They haven't won back to back games during their last 21 games played. They just snapped a pesky nine game losing streak on the road. To win a Super Bowl they would have to not only win 8 straight games, but four more road games including road games against the same Panthers and either Arizona or Green Bay. It is not happening.

For the first time since 2012 and maybe even more so because they didn't give up draft picks recently, I can honestly say that I believe the Redskins are on a good path. They have a proven person in charge of finding talent and depth. They have a quarterback who seems to grasp an NFL style offense. They have plus talent at some key skill positions and they are not cap strung nor have they mortgaged their draft picks. All this and they are still probably two years away from hopefully being a contender. They need to bring in 20 more draft picks, avoid the injury bug, stick with Kirk Cousins and the entire coaching staff and see what happens. This is how it is done in the NFL. You can't buy a Super Bowl. It comes via the draft and continuity.

Now the reasons why I want the Redskins to lose out this season.

1) I don't want to lose to Seattle by 30 on our home field in the playoffs.

2) I want a better draft pick

3) I want an easier (in theory) schedule next year

The East is locked in as the #4 seed for this years playoffs in the NFC. The Seahawks are the current #5 seed and can't win their division. The last three times the Redskins have made the playoffs, their season has ended with a loss to Seattle. No thank you, been there done that. They aren't ready for that.

{Counter-point}

You have to get playoff experience in order to know how to win in the playoffs. Yes and no. Making the playoffs is one thing, but being good and winning 10+ games repeatedly is far more important. Let's look at the last few champions:

2010 Season

Champion Green Bay Packers went 10-6 a year after going 11-5

2011 Season

Champion New York Giants went 9-7 a year after going 10-6

2012 Season

Champion Baltimore Ravens went 10-6 a year after going 12-4

2013 Season

Champion Seattle Seahawks went 13-3 a year after going 11-5

2014 Season

Champion New England Patriots went 12-4 a year after going 12-4

So the last five champs won their Super Bowl with 10.8 wins but also won 11.2 games the previous year. Only the Giants in 2011 failed to win 10+ in a year during or before winning a Super Bowl.

Fact: The Redskins can't win 10 games this year...but a few losses will serve two purposes.

It is about time Washington builds through the draft. If you count RGIII as all but gone, the Redskins will have just one 1st or 2nd round draft pick on their roster from 2012-2014. That is embarrassing. In 2015, their first year with new GM Scot McCloughan, the Redskins actually drafted both a first round pick and a second round pick! One small step for....well you get it. Do it again in 2016 and it's a trend. Do it again in 2017 and it's a miracle. The last time (and realizing this won't help prove my points) the Redskins had three consecutive years drafted in both the first round and the second round was 1993-95. As long as the Redskins don't need to draft a QB (Heath Shuler) this strategy might actually work.

Right now Washington would draft 21st overall. With 2 or more losses to end the season, they could crack the top 12. That's the easiest way to trade up in my opinion.

{Counter-point}

Kirk Cousins is average at best. The Redskins need to draft a QB.

Go away. This is how the trouble started in 2012. Kirk is good enough to win a Super Bowl. You don't have to be Tom Brady to win a Super Bowl, hell Eli Manning won two and he's downright awful at times. You can hide an average to above average QB around a great defense and quality offensive line. I'm looking at you Joe Flacco and Russell Wilson. It takes 53 people to win a Super Bowl. The Redskins have about 20 people so far that can get them there. That's up from 10 last year. Get it to over 40 and you're in the mix.

So how do you win 10+ games? For the Redskins it will involve not having to travel to the Meadowlands more than once, to undefeated Atlanta, New England and Carolina in 2016.

 We already know 14 of the 16 opponents for Washington next year. The six games in the division and four each against the NFC and AFC North. What is up for grabs could be the difference between 9 wins and 11 wins for them next year if they keep progressing.

If the Redskins win the NFC East here is who they play:

Home vs Carolina (3 time defending NFC South Champion)
Road at Arizona (Won 10, then 11 and already with 11 wins with 3 to go last 3 seasons)

If the Redskins finish 3rd in the East here is who they play:

Home vs either Tampa Bay (Redskins beat), New Orleans (Redskins beat) or Atlanta (lost 7 of 8 since squeaking by Washington)
Road* at St. Louis Rams (Redskins beat) *Also this game would be played on a neutral site in London where I'm sure Washington fans would outnumber St. Louis fans, because St. Louis is an apathetic fan base for football.

A third place finish gets Washington 8 home games, 6 true road games and two games in London (as they are already guaranteed a 'road' game vs Cincinnati across the pond.

Current win/loss % of 2015 non-NFC East opponents: 70-60 .538
Current win/loss % of 2016 non-NFC East opp (1st place schedule): 75-55
Current win/loss % of 2016 non-NFC East opp (3rd place schedule): 62-68

It's not often you can double your wins and get a potentially much easier schedule the following year. Plus you only have to play 6 true road games!!

This is the best case scenario for the Redskins if they hope to get to double digit wins in 2016. This will lead to dreams of a 2017 Super Bowl season which is what we all want, right?

So please Washington, do us all a favor and lose to Buffalo and Philadelphia and then beat the crap out of Dallas. Lock in that 3rd seed, draft well and take advantage of a very soft 2016 schedule.

I'll see you back in Minnesota in February of 2018 where the Redskins will defend their Super Bowl crown there.

NFL Recap

I was this close again!!! After predicting a Denver-Seattle Super Bowl last year I figured there was no chance I'd ever get that close again. I went with Seattle to defeat New England with my all too early prediction for this season and lo and behold I hit the nail on the head again! With 15 minutes to play Seattle held a 24-14 lead and my predicted score of 27-16 looked pretty good. But as Geico has always said, a lot can change in just 15 minutes. New England roared back and took a late lead, but Seattle drove right back down the field and with less than a minute to play was one yard away from a back to back championship and turning me into a fatter, balder version of Nostradamus. One run by Marshawn Lynch and I was money! But no. Pete Carroll called for a pass, it was intercepted and Brady and Belichick cemented themselves as the greatest quarterback/coach duo in the history of the NFL. Kudos to them on a wonderful 4th quarter comeback that will forever be overshadowed by that final play. Do they have it in them to get back to a seventh Super Bowl before Brady hangs them up? Maybe, but you'll have to scroll down to see if I have picked them to repeat. As for the Seahawks, their window of having a cheap Russell Wilson is closed, Marshawn Lynch is a free agent and pissed so this might just be the end for their mini run. They will still be a heavy favorite to compete for a Super Bowl, but I believe it'll take at least a year or two to regroup after this debacle.

So lets look back at my predictions from my 4th annual NFL Crystal Ball and see just how horrid they were.

Breakout Candidates

Jay Cutler: Tied for the league lead in interceptions and was benched for the final game of the regular season. On a brighter note, was the starting quarterback on my fantasy football team that went 10-3 in the regular season (DeMarco Murray, Arian Foster and Jordy Nelson may have been on it too).

Andre Ellington: Played a lot more, but got injured and missed the final quarter of the season. Didn't live up to the hype, but was serviceable.

Joique Bell: More rushing, less receiving and the same total touchdowns from a year before. Maybe next year he puts it all together. Close, but no cigar.

Terrance Williams: Fewer targets, receptions and receiving yards than his rookie year, but scored 3 more touchdowns. He has all the makings of a star, but will have to settle for second fiddle with Dez in Big D.

Cordarrelle Patterson/Kyle Rudolph: I don't even know where to start with this debacle of a duo. Whether it was injury or lack of playing time or both, neither did anything of note while rookie quarterback Teddy Bridgewater was showing glimpses of stardom.

Busts

Cam Newton: After a slow start, Cam looked more and more like the steady Cam by mid-season even overcoming a car accident and some broken ribs. Another swing and a miss.

Frank Gore: My annual prediction of his demise didn't exactly come true. Sure he is showing signs of wear and tear, but he still churned out 1100 yards rushing and 5 total touchdowns while starting all 16 games.

Pierre Garcon/DeSean Jackson: One yes, one no. I predicted 120 total catches and 2000 total yards: they went for 124 total catches and 1928 total yards. DeSean did most of the work of the pair, but this might have been my best prediction of the bunch.

As for MVP: I picked two quarterbacks and missed on both. Aaron Rodgers won (should've been J.J. Watt) while Drew Brees and Peyton Manning were great and awful at times.

Standings and Predicted Records (actual records in parenthesis) 

NFC EAST

Philadelphia Eagles 11-5 (10-6)
Dallas Cowboys 8-8 (12-4)
Washington Redskins 6-10 (4-12)
New York Giants 6-10 (6-10)

NFC NORTH

Green Bay Packers 13-3 (12-4)
Chicago Bears 11-5 (5-11)
Detroit Lions 9-7 (11-5)
Minnesota Vikings 6-10 (7-9)

NFC SOUTH

New Orleans Saints 12-4 (7-9)
Atlanta Falcons 8-8 (6-10)
Carolina Panthers 7-9 (7-8-1)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5-11 (2-14)

NFC WEST

Seattle Seahawks 13-3 (12-4)
Arizona Cardinals 9-7 (11-5)
San Francisco 49ers 8-8 (8-8)
St. Louis Rams 7-9 (6-10)

AFC EAST

New England Patriots 13-3 (12-4)
New York Jets 6-10 (4-12)
Miami Dolphins 3-13 (8-8)
Buffalo Bills 3-13 (9-7)

AFC NORTH

Baltimore Ravens 11-5 (10-6)
Pittsburgh Steelers 9-7 (11-5)
Cincinnati Bengals 9-7 (10-5-1)
Cleveland Browns 2-14 (7-9)

AFC SOUTH

Indianapolis Colts 13-3 (11-5)
Tennessee Titans 6-10 (2-14)
Houston Texans 5-11 (9-7)
Jacksonville Jaguars 3-13 (3-13)

AFC WEST

Denver Broncos 13-3 (12-4)
Kansas City Chiefs 9-7 (9-7)
San Diego Chargers 7-9 (9-7)
Oakland Raiders 5-11 (3-13)


I went 5/8 in predicting division winners, but missed an AFC division winner for the first time in three years as the Ravens came up short to Pittsburgh before beating them in the playoffs.

Biggest misses were Chicago and Buffalo (six games off) New Orleans, Miami and Cleveland (5 games off)

But just when I was looking like a fool...along came the playoffs:

I had Seattle beating Green Bay in the NFC Championship game so that was good (even though Chicago, Philadelphia and New Orleans made me look silly).

In the AFC...ah near perfection. I had every single winner correct and outside of picking Kansas City over Cincinnati for the #6 seed went perfect!!! Baltimore over Pittsburgh: YES New England over Baltimore: YES Indianapolis over Denver: YES New England over Indianapolis: YES 

Can't do much better than that.

As for my all too early prediction for Super Bowl 50 where I am looking for three consecutive February bulls-eyes (Denver/Seattle, New England/Seattle) I am going: Green Bay to outscore Indianapolis and return the Lombardi Trophy to where it belongs for the leagues' 50th anniversary of the big game. Each team was a game away, but this will mark a changing of the guard in the AFC and Seattle might finally have to let some of their core walk away after two straight Super Bowl appearances.  

Who will win Super Bowl 48?

Back in February of 2013 I already predicted what was going to happen come Sunday night. You don't believe me? Read HERE. Basically I had determined that Peyton would win that elusive second trophy over the Seahawks and then promptly retire. Of course I had amended that bold and correct prediction by September because ESPN came out with the same prediction in their NFL preview. I changed it to Denver vs. Atlanta and...well let's not discuss that any further.

Last night I was bored and decided to look back at all the Super Bowls and see if I could find a common theme between the outcomes and the participants based on three very key factors: being the Vegas favorite, being the more experienced franchise (played in more SBs) and having a QB that has started more Super Bowls than his opponent.

That's all I used to hear about when it came to pundits discussing which team had the edge. But was it really accurate or just conjecture? Here are the results:

Super Bowl Favorites are 32-15 (68%).
More experienced franchises are 26-14 (65%)
The more experienced starting QB is 16-13 (55%)....Denver is looking good as they are all 3 of these.

For quarterbacks who are starting their second or more Super Bowl against a quarterback who has never started a Super Bowl (Peyton vs R Wilson) they are 13-8 (62%).

Through Super Bowl 41 the numbers were much better for the experienced and the favorites. Things change drastically starting with the first Brady/Eli Manning - Patriots/Giants Super Bowl #42. Since then:

Favorites are 2-4
More Experienced franchises are 1-5
More Experienced QBs are 0-5!! (including 0-3 for 2+ starts vs first timers)

Remember...Denver is the favorite, they are the more experienced Super Bowl franchise and they have the more experience Super Bowl quarterback.

This has happened 14 times in Super Bowl history.

Teams are 11-3 when they have all three of those markers on their side.

Here's the kicker: all three times that a team has lost in this situation a Manning was involved!

Twice Tom Brady lost to Eli Manning and the NY Giants and once Peyton Manning lost to Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints.

I hope that didn't just make you cancel your bet on the Broncos.

The fact is things have certainly changed. Experience (both franchise/quarterback) means less now than it used to and being the Vegas favorite isn't a telltale sign anymore. As stated, favorites have lost 4 times in the last 6 games. Before that, favorites lost 4 times in 19 games! Vegas...get your act together!

If you're looking to bet on the Vegas line...STOP! Even though favorites are 32-15 overall, they are just 23-21-3 against the line...stay away.

Of course if you're all in on Denver this year as they have the three markers on their side...of the 11 teams who did win, 7 of them covered so there's that.

I'm sticking with my prediction of the Broncos winning it all. Denver 27 Seattle 24

2014 NFL Playoff Preview

Outside of March Madness, the NFL playoffs are the best sports spectacle around. Four weekends of the best teams squaring off where anything can happen (ask the Denver secondary). There are plenty of story lines worth writing about and each team has its own motivation for winning (outside of the glory and the trophy and the fame of course). I have already gone on file saying that Denver would beat Seattle this year. I wrote that 11 months ago and nothing that I have seen has changed my mind. Now is that the Super Bowl I want to watch? Possibly. It would make me look smart and I could get invested in rooting for Peyton Manning, but on the 'sexiness' scale it may not rank as high as other possible matchups.

There are 12 teams that can win the Super Bowl this year. I'm going to rank them in order of pure 'sexiness' taking into account possible story lines and historical implications.

From worst to best:

12) San Diego Chargers - Lucky to even be in the playoffs thanks to KC kicker Ryan Succop choking on a last second field goal, San Diego is still trying to win its first Super Bowl. Philip Rivers is not a likable person, but Antonio Gates and Danny Woodhead would make for some interesting stories.

11) Carolina Panthers - Just like San Diego they have been to one Super Bowl and lost it. If they went to this years Super Bowl I think everyone would be sick and tired of Cam Newton and the possible Auburn double dip story lines come kick off. They just don't do it for me.

10) Indianapolis Colts - Andrew Luck has that possible 'it' factor, but not until he shaves the neck beard. Until Peyton retires I'm sure there is a good percentage of Colts fans wishing that Peyton and not Luck were 'manning' this team. Who would be discussed more during Super Bowl week: Peyton or Andrew?

9) Cincinnati Bengals - They finally ousted both Pittsburgh and Baltimore in their division, but are they ready to take the next step? Doubtful. Andy Dalton is too streaky IMO to run the gauntlet in the AFC. Gio Bernard is a personal favorite of mine and A.J. Green has star power. The Bengals are the third team still vying for Super Bowl #1.

8) San Francisco 49ers - I'm ready to be completely Harbaugh-less as soon as possible. Taking nothing away from Colin Kaepernick and the stout Niners defense, I just couldn't stomach coach Harbaugh for another month. Plus they've won enough as a franchise.

7) Green Bay Packers - The Packers went from heavy favorites to injury riddled to a Cinderella story all in the span of a single season. Aaron Rodgers and his 'discount double check' story line will be written to death. Eddie Lacy gives them a chance to stay balanced on offense. I can understand people loving them and hating them so they get a middling spot in this list.

6) Seattle Seahawks - When they play in Seattle they are downright nasty. When they play outside of their friendly confines they're just pretty good. Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch are great, but with so many substance abuse allegations from their secondary I have a feeling it'll all fell a bit tainted. They are the 4th team looking for their franchises first Super Bowl.

5) Philadelphia Eagles - The fifth and final first time possible Super Bowl winner. Chip Kelly has brought to Philadelphia the same thing the RGIII brought to Washington a year earlier in the NFC East...hope. Nick Foles is an unknown and he'll keep the spotlight away from backup Michael Vick. The Eagles could win a Super Bowl on one of their rivals home field which add extra juice to their story.

4) Kansas City Chiefs - It's fitting that Andy Reid is placed right next to his former team. The Chiefs have trailed off after a 9-0 start finishing 2-5. I don't have high hopes for them to piece it back together, but the story lines are there. Andy Reid and Alex Smith cast off from fellow playoff teams Philadelphia and San Francisco. Jamaal Charles and his speed and greatness. The Chiefs big play defense which has been hampered by injury in the second half of the season.

3) New Orleans Saints - Just a year after suspensions and sanctions derailed this franchise at its peak, the Saints return with a massive chip on their shoulder. Unfortunately they have to play on the road this playoff season which makes the job that much harder, but if they get to the Super Bowl it'll be an awkward two weeks of publicity. Just imagine Sean Payton taking the Lombardi Trophy from Roger Goodell.

2) New England Patriots - I'm sure plenty of people are quite finished with New England. Brady. Belichick. The Tuck Rule. Spygate. 2007s offense. Aaron Hernandez. Gronk. It goes on and on. You have to give it to Brady and Belichick though. With all the distractions that this season brought, they still found a way to go 12-4, get a BYE and are in line for another Super Bowl run. This has all the makings.

1) Denver Broncos - It all leads up to this. Peyton Manning and company breaking all the offensive records in the NFL. The failure of the defense a year ago is still the teams Achilles heel. Peyton Manning could win that elusive second Super Bowl on his younger brothers home field. This team was built to win this year and anything less will be seen as an epic failure.

Now that we've covered that let's look at some possible Super Bowl games that could be fun:

Kansas City vs Philadelphia: The Andy Reid Bowl
Kansas City vs San Francisco: The Alex Smith Bowl
New England vs New Orleans: The 'Cheaters' Bowl
Denver vs Philadelphia: The Defense optional Bowl
Denver vs Green Bay: The NFL Spokesperson Bowl

Here are some Super Bowls I'd rather not watch:

Carolina vs San Diego: Blech
San Francisco vs New England: The Most Annoying Coaches Bowl
Carolina vs Kansas City: First one to double digits wins Bowl
Seattle vs Cincinnati: Least Nationally Sexy Bowl
Seattle/San Francisco vs San Diego: Two West Coast teams on the East Coast Bowl

Now for predictions!!!!

Kansas City over Indianapolis
Philadelphia over New Orleans
Cincinnati over San Diego
Green Bay over San Francisco

Denver over Kansas City
New England over Cincinnati
Seattle over Green Bay
Philadelphia over Carolina

Denver over New England
Seattle over Philadelphia

Denver over Seattle...still.

NFL Recap

Congratulations to the Baltimore Ravens on winning the Super Bowl over the San Francisco 49ers.  Whether you doubt the legality of having injured superstars Ray Lewis and Terrell Suggs back so soon or not, the Ravens will go down in history as champions.  The 49ers franchise suffered their first ever loss in the Super Bowl after five victories, but Colin Kaepernick looks to give them a shot at getting back there again.

I did my 2nd annual NFL Crystal Ball right before the season and now it is time to see how I did.

1st prediction was that RGIII would play in 16 games.  Correct!!  Yeah, yeah he missed a game, but played in a playoff game so 16 games it was.

2nd prediction that Norv Turner wouldn't make it as head coach of the Chargers past their Bye Week in Week 7.  1/2 points! He was dead coach walking by that time and was finally fired after the season.

Standings Predictions: (actual records in parenthesis)

NFC East

Philadelphia Eagles 12-4 (4-12)
Dallas Cowboys 10-6 (8-8)
New York Giants 9-7 (9-7)
Washington Redskins 6-10 (10-6)

NFC North

Green Bay Packers 14-2 (11-5)
Chicago Bears 11-5 (10-6)
Detroit Lions 8-8 (4-12)
Minnesota Vikings 4-12 (10-6)

NFC South

Atlanta Falcons 13-3 (13-3)
New Orleans Saints 10-6 (7-9)
Carolina Panthers 7-9 (7-9)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3-13 (7-9)

NFC West

San Francisco 49ers 11-5 (11-4-1)
Seattle Seahawks 5-11 (11-5)
St. Louis Rams 5-11 (7-8-1)
Arizona Cardinals 4-12 (5-11)

AFC East

New England Patriots 13-3  (12-4)
New York Jets 10-6 (6-10)
Buffalo Bills 6-10 (6-10)
Miami Dolphins 6-10 (7-9)

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens 12-4 (10-6)
Pittsburgh Steelers 9-7 (8-8)
Cincinnati Bengals 9-7 (10-6)
Cleveland Browns 2-14 (5-11)

AFC South

Houston Texans 12-4 (12-4)
Tennessee Titans 7-9 (6-10)
Indianapolis Colts 6-10 (11-5)
Jacksonville Jaguars 2-14 (2-14)

AFC West

Denver Broncos 11-5 (13-3)
Oakland Raiders 8-8 (4-12)
Kansas City Chiefs 7-9 (2-14)
San Diego Chargers 4-12 (7-9)

Hit and miss obviously.  I did get 7 of the 8 division winners correct missing only my Washington Redskins.  Biggest misses were the Philadelphia Eagles and Seattle Seahawks in the NFC and Kansas City Chiefs and both the New York Jets and Indianapolis Colts in the AFC.

I predicted Tom Brady to win the MVP over Matt Ryan and while they both had good seasons it was Adrian Peterson who won the award over Peyton Manning.  Two huge injury risks heading into the season somehow not only managed to stay healthy, but perform well beyond expectations.  Deer antler spray for everyone!!!

In my Suprises/Breakouts section I chose:

Jake Locker- 2/10 Locker played in just 11 games and totaled 11 touchdowns and 11 interceptions.  A mid-season injury derailed any possibility at building upon a promising finish to the 2011 season.
Jeremy Maclin- 6/10 A good bounce back season for Maclin who still produced as the city of Philadelphia was burning down around him.  He still didn't match the 2010 season though.
Donald Brown- 0/10 Ugh.  I hitched my ride to him this season and was burnt badly.  After 3 years of steady progression, Brown took a major step backwards in his now fledgling career.
Torrey Smith- 4/10 Even with 15 more targets than last season, Smith's numbers were practically identical to 2011.  He continues to be high risk/high reward for fantasy owners.
Vernon Davis- 1/10 It took until the playoffs to see the 49ers finally use Davis properly, but he was a major fantasy disappointment all regular season.

In my Disappointments section I chose:

Maurice Jones-Drew- 10/10 When will RB's learn not to hold out.  MJD suffered through a terrible season all stemming back to not being at practice.
Ryan Mathews- 9/10 He started injured, ended injured and didn't do much in between scoring just once in a forgettable season.
Vincent Jackson- 0/10 A new team rejuvenated Jackson who had a career high in receiving yardage and caught 8 touchdowns...oops!
Victor Cruz- 4/10 His receiving yardage dropped by nearly 500 yards, but he still hauled in 10 touchdowns which was one more than last year.
Matthew Stafford-  8/10 His TD's were cut in half while throwing one more INT than last year.  He still threw for nearly 5,000 useless yards.

The Playoffs:

I went 7/12 (all division winners) and missed both Super Bowl participants (Houston over Atlanta in mine).

Not horrible, but not great.

The emergence of Colin Kaepernick, RGIII and Russell Wilson to how the quarterback position is played is what I will take away from this season.  All three did things that I didn't think were possible while pocket passers like Brady, Brees and Manning still produced big numbers.  It's a special era we're witnessing for quarterback play.  The quarterback position will be DEEP in fantasy football next season...wait, wait and wait for one to fall.

Early prediction for Super Bowl 48 that will probably change by September: Denver over Seattle as Manning pulls off a Ray Lewis and rides off into the sunset on top.

NFL Crystal Ball 2012

I'm back with another year of fearless predictions of the upcoming NFL season.  Last year I had Green Bay defeating New England so I was halfway home, but since I didn't have the New York Giants even making the playoffs I feel I failed.

I did correctly predict that Aaron Rodgers would win the MVP award and that Jamaal Charles would be a disappointment, so not everything was a loss.

Once again I played out every game 10,000 times on my XBOX (what a long weekend it was) and I have seen surprises and disappointments and everything in between.  Just to let you all know, RGIII will play in all 16 games.  It won't help the success of the Redskins, but it was still amazing to see him stay upright.

My predictions only had 4 teams not make the playoffs that were in it last year which would actually be lower than the minimum of 5 that the NFL has seen over recent years.  The biggest surprise was that the Philadelphia Eagles were able to keep it together and win the NFC East, but of course I thought the same last year too.  Out west Norv Turner doesn't last as Chargers head coach through their Bye Week in Week 7.

Here are how the standings will shape up this season:

NFC EAST:

Philadelphia 12-4
Dallas 10-6
New York 9-7
Washington 6-10

NFC NORTH:

Green Bay 14-2
Chicago 11-5
Detroit 8-8
Minnesota 4-12

NFC SOUTH:

Atlanta 13-3
New Orleans 10-6
Carolina 7-9
Tampa Bay 3-13

NFC WEST:

San Francisco 11-5
Seattle 5-11
St. Louis 5-11
Arizona 4-12

AFC EAST:

New England 13-3
New York 10-6
Buffalo 6-10
Miami 6-10

AFC NORTH:

Baltimore 12-4
Pittsburgh 9-7
Cincinnati 9-7
Cleveland 2-14

AFC SOUTH:

Houston 12-4
Tennessee 7-9
Indianapolis 6-10
Jacksonville 2-14

AFC WEST:

Denver 11-5
Oakland 8-8
Kansas City 7-9
San Diego 4-12

MVP: Tom Brady 2nd: Matt Ryan

Surprises/Breakouts: Jake Locker, Jeremy Maclin (2nd year in a row for this pick), Donald Brown, Torrey Smith, Vernon Davis

Disappointments: Maurice Jones-Drew (hamstring issues due to holdout), Ryan Mathews, Vincent Jackson, Victor Cruz (freak salsa dance injury in Week 4), Matthew Stafford (11 games played which saddens me)

Playoffs:

 NFC:

1. Green Bay 14-2
2. Atlanta 13-3
3. Philadelphia 12-4
4. San Francisco 11-5
5. Chicago 11-5
6. Dallas 10-6

Wild Card:

Philadelphia over Dallas
Chicago over San Francisco

Semifinals:

Green Bay over Chicago
Atlanta over Philadelphia

Conference Championship:

Atlanta over Green Bay

AFC:

1. New England 13-3
2. Baltimore 12-4
3. Houston 12-4
4. Denver 11-5
5. New York 10-6
6. Pittsburgh 9-7

Wild Card:

Houston over Pittsburgh
Denver over New York Jets

Semifinals:

New England over Denver
Houston over Baltimore
 

Conference Championship:

Houston over New England

SUPER BOWL:

Houston over Atlanta 24-20 Arian Foster Super Bowl MVP 115 yards rushing, 2 TD's