I am a die hard Washington Redskins fan.
I am old enough to remember watching two of the three Super Bowls in their franchise history.
I have sat through the last 23 mostly pointless seasons.
I cried when Sean Taylor died.
I cried after Chris Cooley scored three times while I was at my first live Redskins v Cowboys games which was just days after my cousin died in a car accident.
I bought a RGIII jersey for me and my newborn son and had him on my fantasy team during that magical 2012 run.
I would be happy if the 2015 Redskins lost two of their final three games this season.
You read correctly and no this does not make me a bad fan. At 6-7 the Redskins are in the catbird seat of a very underwhelming NFC East. In my mind they have already matched expectations going into the season. Would a 9-7 season and a division crown be great? Sure, of course it would. But, and this is a big but, this team is not winning a Super Bowl. They still have far too many holes, have suffered too many injuries that crippled their growing depth and just cannot compete against the best the NFL has to offer. We have already seen them get outscored by the two Super Bowl favorites (the Panthers/Patriots) 71-26. They haven't won back to back games during their last 21 games played. They just snapped a pesky nine game losing streak on the road. To win a Super Bowl they would have to not only win 8 straight games, but four more road games including road games against the same Panthers and either Arizona or Green Bay. It is not happening.
For the first time since 2012 and maybe even more so because they didn't give up draft picks recently, I can honestly say that I believe the Redskins are on a good path. They have a proven person in charge of finding talent and depth. They have a quarterback who seems to grasp an NFL style offense. They have plus talent at some key skill positions and they are not cap strung nor have they mortgaged their draft picks. All this and they are still probably two years away from hopefully being a contender. They need to bring in 20 more draft picks, avoid the injury bug, stick with Kirk Cousins and the entire coaching staff and see what happens. This is how it is done in the NFL. You can't buy a Super Bowl. It comes via the draft and continuity.
Now the reasons why I want the Redskins to lose out this season.
1) I don't want to lose to Seattle by 30 on our home field in the playoffs.
2) I want a better draft pick
3) I want an easier (in theory) schedule next year
The East is locked in as the #4 seed for this years playoffs in the NFC. The Seahawks are the current #5 seed and can't win their division. The last three times the Redskins have made the playoffs, their season has ended with a loss to Seattle. No thank you, been there done that. They aren't ready for that.
{Counter-point}
You have to get playoff experience in order to know how to win in the playoffs. Yes and no. Making the playoffs is one thing, but being good and winning 10+ games repeatedly is far more important. Let's look at the last few champions:
2010 Season
Champion Green Bay Packers went 10-6 a year after going 11-5
2011 Season
Champion New York Giants went 9-7 a year after going 10-6
2012 Season
Champion Baltimore Ravens went 10-6 a year after going 12-4
2013 Season
Champion Seattle Seahawks went 13-3 a year after going 11-5
2014 Season
Champion New England Patriots went 12-4 a year after going 12-4
So the last five champs won their Super Bowl with 10.8 wins but also won 11.2 games the previous year. Only the Giants in 2011 failed to win 10+ in a year during or before winning a Super Bowl.
Fact: The Redskins can't win 10 games this year...but a few losses will serve two purposes.
It is about time Washington builds through the draft. If you count RGIII as all but gone, the Redskins will have just one 1st or 2nd round draft pick on their roster from 2012-2014. That is embarrassing. In 2015, their first year with new GM Scot McCloughan, the Redskins actually drafted both a first round pick and a second round pick! One small step for....well you get it. Do it again in 2016 and it's a trend. Do it again in 2017 and it's a miracle. The last time (and realizing this won't help prove my points) the Redskins had three consecutive years drafted in both the first round and the second round was 1993-95. As long as the Redskins don't need to draft a QB (Heath Shuler) this strategy might actually work.
Right now Washington would draft 21st overall. With 2 or more losses to end the season, they could crack the top 12. That's the easiest way to trade up in my opinion.
{Counter-point}
Kirk Cousins is average at best. The Redskins need to draft a QB.
Go away. This is how the trouble started in 2012. Kirk is good enough to win a Super Bowl. You don't have to be Tom Brady to win a Super Bowl, hell Eli Manning won two and he's downright awful at times. You can hide an average to above average QB around a great defense and quality offensive line. I'm looking at you Joe Flacco and Russell Wilson. It takes 53 people to win a Super Bowl. The Redskins have about 20 people so far that can get them there. That's up from 10 last year. Get it to over 40 and you're in the mix.
So how do you win 10+ games? For the Redskins it will involve not having to travel to the Meadowlands more than once, to undefeated Atlanta, New England and Carolina in 2016.
We already know 14 of the 16 opponents for Washington next year. The six games in the division and four each against the NFC and AFC North. What is up for grabs could be the difference between 9 wins and 11 wins for them next year if they keep progressing.
If the Redskins win the NFC East here is who they play:
Home vs Carolina (3 time defending NFC South Champion)
Road at Arizona (Won 10, then 11 and already with 11 wins with 3 to go last 3 seasons)
If the Redskins finish 3rd in the East here is who they play:
Home vs either Tampa Bay (Redskins beat), New Orleans (Redskins beat) or Atlanta (lost 7 of 8 since squeaking by Washington)
Road* at St. Louis Rams (Redskins beat) *Also this game would be played on a neutral site in London where I'm sure Washington fans would outnumber St. Louis fans, because St. Louis is an apathetic fan base for football.
A third place finish gets Washington 8 home games, 6 true road games and two games in London (as they are already guaranteed a 'road' game vs Cincinnati across the pond.
Current win/loss % of 2015 non-NFC East opponents: 70-60 .538
Current win/loss % of 2016 non-NFC East opp (1st place schedule): 75-55
Current win/loss % of 2016 non-NFC East opp (3rd place schedule): 62-68
It's not often you can double your wins and get a potentially much easier schedule the following year. Plus you only have to play 6 true road games!!
This is the best case scenario for the Redskins if they hope to get to double digit wins in 2016. This will lead to dreams of a 2017 Super Bowl season which is what we all want, right?
So please Washington, do us all a favor and lose to Buffalo and Philadelphia and then beat the crap out of Dallas. Lock in that 3rd seed, draft well and take advantage of a very soft 2016 schedule.
I'll see you back in Minnesota in February of 2018 where the Redskins will defend their Super Bowl crown there.
Showing posts with label washington redskins. Show all posts
Showing posts with label washington redskins. Show all posts
Tuesday, December 15, 2015
Monday, February 2, 2015
NFL Recap
I was this close again!!! After predicting a Denver-Seattle Super Bowl last year I figured there was no chance I'd ever get that close again. I went with Seattle to defeat New England with my all too early prediction for this season and lo and behold I hit the nail on the head again! With 15 minutes to play Seattle held a 24-14 lead and my predicted score of 27-16 looked pretty good. But as Geico has always said, a lot can change in just 15 minutes. New England roared back and took a late lead, but Seattle drove right back down the field and with less than a minute to play was one yard away from a back to back championship and turning me into a fatter, balder version of Nostradamus. One run by Marshawn Lynch and I was money! But no. Pete Carroll called for a pass, it was intercepted and Brady and Belichick cemented themselves as the greatest quarterback/coach duo in the history of the NFL. Kudos to them on a wonderful 4th quarter comeback that will forever be overshadowed by that final play. Do they have it in them to get back to a seventh Super Bowl before Brady hangs them up? Maybe, but you'll have to scroll down to see if I have picked them to repeat. As for the Seahawks, their window of having a cheap Russell Wilson is closed, Marshawn Lynch is a free agent and pissed so this might just be the end for their mini run. They will still be a heavy favorite to compete for a Super Bowl, but I believe it'll take at least a year or two to regroup after this debacle.
So lets look back at my predictions from my 4th annual NFL Crystal Ball and see just how horrid they were.
Breakout Candidates
Jay Cutler: Tied for the league lead in interceptions and was benched for the final game of the regular season. On a brighter note, was the starting quarterback on my fantasy football team that went 10-3 in the regular season (DeMarco Murray, Arian Foster and Jordy Nelson may have been on it too).
Andre Ellington: Played a lot more, but got injured and missed the final quarter of the season. Didn't live up to the hype, but was serviceable.
Joique Bell: More rushing, less receiving and the same total touchdowns from a year before. Maybe next year he puts it all together. Close, but no cigar.
Terrance Williams: Fewer targets, receptions and receiving yards than his rookie year, but scored 3 more touchdowns. He has all the makings of a star, but will have to settle for second fiddle with Dez in Big D.
Cordarrelle Patterson/Kyle Rudolph: I don't even know where to start with this debacle of a duo. Whether it was injury or lack of playing time or both, neither did anything of note while rookie quarterback Teddy Bridgewater was showing glimpses of stardom.
Busts
Cam Newton: After a slow start, Cam looked more and more like the steady Cam by mid-season even overcoming a car accident and some broken ribs. Another swing and a miss.
Frank Gore: My annual prediction of his demise didn't exactly come true. Sure he is showing signs of wear and tear, but he still churned out 1100 yards rushing and 5 total touchdowns while starting all 16 games.
Pierre Garcon/DeSean Jackson: One yes, one no. I predicted 120 total catches and 2000 total yards: they went for 124 total catches and 1928 total yards. DeSean did most of the work of the pair, but this might have been my best prediction of the bunch.
As for MVP: I picked two quarterbacks and missed on both. Aaron Rodgers won (should've been J.J. Watt) while Drew Brees and Peyton Manning were great and awful at times.
Standings and Predicted Records (actual records in parenthesis)
NFC EAST
Philadelphia Eagles 11-5 (10-6)
Dallas Cowboys 8-8 (12-4)
Washington Redskins 6-10 (4-12)
New York Giants 6-10 (6-10)
NFC NORTH
Green Bay Packers 13-3 (12-4)
Chicago Bears 11-5 (5-11)
Detroit Lions 9-7 (11-5)
Minnesota Vikings 6-10 (7-9)
NFC SOUTH
New Orleans Saints 12-4 (7-9)
Atlanta Falcons 8-8 (6-10)
Carolina Panthers 7-9 (7-8-1)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5-11 (2-14)
NFC WEST
Seattle Seahawks 13-3 (12-4)
Arizona Cardinals 9-7 (11-5)
San Francisco 49ers 8-8 (8-8)
St. Louis Rams 7-9 (6-10)
AFC EAST
New England Patriots 13-3 (12-4)
New York Jets 6-10 (4-12)
Miami Dolphins 3-13 (8-8)
Buffalo Bills 3-13 (9-7)
AFC NORTH
Baltimore Ravens 11-5 (10-6)
Pittsburgh Steelers 9-7 (11-5)
Cincinnati Bengals 9-7 (10-5-1)
Cleveland Browns 2-14 (7-9)
AFC SOUTH
Indianapolis Colts 13-3 (11-5)
Tennessee Titans 6-10 (2-14)
Houston Texans 5-11 (9-7)
Jacksonville Jaguars 3-13 (3-13)
AFC WEST
Denver Broncos 13-3 (12-4)
Kansas City Chiefs 9-7 (9-7)
San Diego Chargers 7-9 (9-7)
Oakland Raiders 5-11 (3-13)
I went 5/8 in predicting division winners, but missed an AFC division winner for the first time in three years as the Ravens came up short to Pittsburgh before beating them in the playoffs.
Biggest misses were Chicago and Buffalo (six games off) New Orleans, Miami and Cleveland (5 games off)
But just when I was looking like a fool...along came the playoffs:
I had Seattle beating Green Bay in the NFC Championship game so that was good (even though Chicago, Philadelphia and New Orleans made me look silly).
In the AFC...ah near perfection. I had every single winner correct and outside of picking Kansas City over Cincinnati for the #6 seed went perfect!!! Baltimore over Pittsburgh: YES New England over Baltimore: YES Indianapolis over Denver: YES New England over Indianapolis: YES
Can't do much better than that.
As for my all too early prediction for Super Bowl 50 where I am looking for three consecutive February bulls-eyes (Denver/Seattle, New England/Seattle) I am going: Green Bay to outscore Indianapolis and return the Lombardi Trophy to where it belongs for the leagues' 50th anniversary of the big game. Each team was a game away, but this will mark a changing of the guard in the AFC and Seattle might finally have to let some of their core walk away after two straight Super Bowl appearances.
So lets look back at my predictions from my 4th annual NFL Crystal Ball and see just how horrid they were.
Breakout Candidates
Jay Cutler: Tied for the league lead in interceptions and was benched for the final game of the regular season. On a brighter note, was the starting quarterback on my fantasy football team that went 10-3 in the regular season (DeMarco Murray, Arian Foster and Jordy Nelson may have been on it too).
Andre Ellington: Played a lot more, but got injured and missed the final quarter of the season. Didn't live up to the hype, but was serviceable.
Joique Bell: More rushing, less receiving and the same total touchdowns from a year before. Maybe next year he puts it all together. Close, but no cigar.
Terrance Williams: Fewer targets, receptions and receiving yards than his rookie year, but scored 3 more touchdowns. He has all the makings of a star, but will have to settle for second fiddle with Dez in Big D.
Cordarrelle Patterson/Kyle Rudolph: I don't even know where to start with this debacle of a duo. Whether it was injury or lack of playing time or both, neither did anything of note while rookie quarterback Teddy Bridgewater was showing glimpses of stardom.
Busts
Cam Newton: After a slow start, Cam looked more and more like the steady Cam by mid-season even overcoming a car accident and some broken ribs. Another swing and a miss.
Frank Gore: My annual prediction of his demise didn't exactly come true. Sure he is showing signs of wear and tear, but he still churned out 1100 yards rushing and 5 total touchdowns while starting all 16 games.
Pierre Garcon/DeSean Jackson: One yes, one no. I predicted 120 total catches and 2000 total yards: they went for 124 total catches and 1928 total yards. DeSean did most of the work of the pair, but this might have been my best prediction of the bunch.
As for MVP: I picked two quarterbacks and missed on both. Aaron Rodgers won (should've been J.J. Watt) while Drew Brees and Peyton Manning were great and awful at times.
Standings and Predicted Records (actual records in parenthesis)
NFC EAST
Philadelphia Eagles 11-5 (10-6)
Dallas Cowboys 8-8 (12-4)
Washington Redskins 6-10 (4-12)
New York Giants 6-10 (6-10)
NFC NORTH
Green Bay Packers 13-3 (12-4)
Chicago Bears 11-5 (5-11)
Detroit Lions 9-7 (11-5)
Minnesota Vikings 6-10 (7-9)
NFC SOUTH
New Orleans Saints 12-4 (7-9)
Atlanta Falcons 8-8 (6-10)
Carolina Panthers 7-9 (7-8-1)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5-11 (2-14)
NFC WEST
Seattle Seahawks 13-3 (12-4)
Arizona Cardinals 9-7 (11-5)
San Francisco 49ers 8-8 (8-8)
St. Louis Rams 7-9 (6-10)
AFC EAST
New England Patriots 13-3 (12-4)
New York Jets 6-10 (4-12)
Miami Dolphins 3-13 (8-8)
Buffalo Bills 3-13 (9-7)
AFC NORTH
Baltimore Ravens 11-5 (10-6)
Pittsburgh Steelers 9-7 (11-5)
Cincinnati Bengals 9-7 (10-5-1)
Cleveland Browns 2-14 (7-9)
AFC SOUTH
Indianapolis Colts 13-3 (11-5)
Tennessee Titans 6-10 (2-14)
Houston Texans 5-11 (9-7)
Jacksonville Jaguars 3-13 (3-13)
AFC WEST
Denver Broncos 13-3 (12-4)
Kansas City Chiefs 9-7 (9-7)
San Diego Chargers 7-9 (9-7)
Oakland Raiders 5-11 (3-13)
I went 5/8 in predicting division winners, but missed an AFC division winner for the first time in three years as the Ravens came up short to Pittsburgh before beating them in the playoffs.
Biggest misses were Chicago and Buffalo (six games off) New Orleans, Miami and Cleveland (5 games off)
But just when I was looking like a fool...along came the playoffs:
I had Seattle beating Green Bay in the NFC Championship game so that was good (even though Chicago, Philadelphia and New Orleans made me look silly).
In the AFC...ah near perfection. I had every single winner correct and outside of picking Kansas City over Cincinnati for the #6 seed went perfect!!! Baltimore over Pittsburgh: YES New England over Baltimore: YES Indianapolis over Denver: YES New England over Indianapolis: YES
Can't do much better than that.
As for my all too early prediction for Super Bowl 50 where I am looking for three consecutive February bulls-eyes (Denver/Seattle, New England/Seattle) I am going: Green Bay to outscore Indianapolis and return the Lombardi Trophy to where it belongs for the leagues' 50th anniversary of the big game. Each team was a game away, but this will mark a changing of the guard in the AFC and Seattle might finally have to let some of their core walk away after two straight Super Bowl appearances.
Monday, September 1, 2014
NFL Crystal Ball 2014
I think back to just how close I was last year. No not that Denver over Atlanta prediction I made here but the Denver over Seattle prediction I made six month earlier, but chickened out because ESPN picked the exact same thing right before I posted my predictions. Sure Denver laid a big, fat, ugly egg in front of a couple million people, but they are the odds on favorite to get back there from the AFC again this season. As for the defending champions up in Seattle, they are expected to contend again, but their path should be a bit more difficult in the more rugged NFC. Picking Seattle to win again this season would be foolish of me, though because the last 8 Super Bowl champs have failed to win a single playoff game (I'm pretty sure I heard that one from Peter King first).
Now for the reason why Seattle can win this season. The New England Patriots did win back to back Super Bowls in 2004-05 as did the Cowboys in the 1990's, the 49ers in the 80's (2nd one being won in January '90 but go along with my logic), the Dolphins/Steelers did the feat in the 70's and the Packers started it all in the '60's with back to back victories. No matter the era we have seen a back to back champion in each decade and we almost half way through the 2010's. Seattle was built to win more than one Super Bowl so why not this season?
Before I get to my predictions, let me regale you with my spot on predictions as to who will be breakout stars and fabulous flops this upcoming season:
Break out candidates: Jay Cutler - The biggest thing that has held Jay Cutler back (outside of Mike Martz' LOOK OUT offensive scheme) has been Jay Cutler. This year he'll have two top 10 caliber WRs to throw to and an elite RB to dump the ball off to. The Bears defense isn't that good and in the NFC North it'll take 30+ points per game to win each week. All the makings of a great season for the enigmatic one in the Windy City. Andre Ellington - You're either a believer or not when it comes to Ellington. He showed plenty of flashes last season while splitting reps and this year the position is all his in Arizona. Whether he can hold up for 20+ touches a game is the biggest question mark. I'm on board. Joique Bell - So what if Reggie Bush is the de facto starter in Detroit. The Lions know the Bell will still be an integral part of their offense and as soon as Bush breaks down he'll get rolling. Terrance Williams - Speaking of good offenses with bad defenses, the Dallas Cowboys will be the poster-Boys in the NFL. With Miles Austin officially out of the picture in Big D and Jason Witten another year older and Dez Bryant attracting all the attention on one side of the field, Williams should be open often. Cordarrelle Patterson/Kyle Rudolph - The two most talked about breakout candidates reside in Minnesota. Whether it is Matt Cassel or rookie Teddy Bridgewater pitching the pigskin around, the Vikings have the chance to be an elite offense. Not only do they have Adrian Peterson in the backfield, but they have Norv Turner on the sidelines. Norv is a horrible head coach, but a wonderful offensive coordinator. He squeezes the most juice out of every fantasy orange he coaches. He will make sure that Patterson and Rudolph get their touches.
Busts - Cam Newton - Where to start? Coming off surgery? Yes. An inexperienced receiving corps? Yes. An aging backfield that garners little respect? Yes. I'm not banking on his rushing TDs suddenly exploding when he's not at his healthiest. In his 3 seasons his rushing TD totals have gone 14, 8 and 6. That's the wrong direction. Frank Gore - Everything is pointing to a disastrous season in San Francisco. Even their new stadium is having issues staying healthy. The 49ers defense is a mess and Jim Harbaugh is a ticking time bomb. Frank Gore served his purpose for the 49ers, but this is the year they move on. Either by injury or ineffectiveness, Gore doesn't start more than 7 games this season. Pierre Garcon/DeSean Jackson - If the Redskins learned anything this preseason it's that RGIII is not ready to stand in the pocket and deliver 30+ passes a game. Washington will be better on defense meaning they can run the ball and have a controlled passing game with TE Jordan Reed being the focal point and the WRs being more of a decoy. In 2013 the two combined for 195 catches and nearly 2700 yards (DeSean was on the Eagles) and in 2014 they'll combine for 120 catches and 2000 yards. Temper the expectations.
Regular Season MVP: Drew Brees edging out Peyton Manning
Here are your 2014 NFL Standings:
NFC EAST
Philadelphia Eagles 11-5
Dallas Cowboys 8-8
Washington Redskins 6-10
New York Giants 6-10
NFC NORTH
Green Bay Packers 13-3
Chicago Bears 11-5
Detroit Lions 9-7
Minnesota Vikings 6-10
NFC SOUTH
New Orleans Saints 12-4
Atlanta Falcons 8-8
Carolina Panthers 7-9
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5-11
NFC WEST
Seattle Seahawks 13-3
Arizona Cardinals 9-7
San Francisco 49ers 8-8
St. Louis Rams 7-9
AFC EAST
New England Patriots 13-3
New York Jets 6-10
Miami Dolphins 3-13
Buffalo Bills 3-13
AFC NORTH
Baltimore Ravens 11-5
Pittsburgh Steelers 9-7
Cincinnati Bengals 9-7
Cleveland Browns 2-14
AFC SOUTH
Indianapolis Colts 13-3
Tennessee Titans 6-10
Houston Texans 5-11
Jacksonville Jaguars 3-13
AFC WEST
Denver Broncos 13-3
Kansas City Chiefs 9-7
San Diego Chargers 7-9
Oakland Raiders 5-11
Playoffs:
NFC
1. Seattle
2. Green Bay
3. New Orleans
4. Philadelphia
5. Chicago
6. Detroit
Wild Card Round:
New Orleans over Detroit
Chicago over Philadelphia
Divisional Round:
Seattle over Chicago
Green Bay over New Orleans
NFC Championship:
Seattle over Green Bay
AFC
1. New England
2. Denver
3. Indianapolis
4. Baltimore
5. Pittsburgh
6. Kansas City
Wild Card Round:
Indianapolis over Kansas City
Baltimore over Pittsburgh
Divisional Round:
New England over Baltimore
Indianapolis over Denver
AFC Championship:
New England over Indianapolis
Super Bowl:
Seattle over New England 27-16 as Russel Wilson wins the Super Bowl MVP.
Now for the reason why Seattle can win this season. The New England Patriots did win back to back Super Bowls in 2004-05 as did the Cowboys in the 1990's, the 49ers in the 80's (2nd one being won in January '90 but go along with my logic), the Dolphins/Steelers did the feat in the 70's and the Packers started it all in the '60's with back to back victories. No matter the era we have seen a back to back champion in each decade and we almost half way through the 2010's. Seattle was built to win more than one Super Bowl so why not this season?
Before I get to my predictions, let me regale you with my spot on predictions as to who will be breakout stars and fabulous flops this upcoming season:
Break out candidates: Jay Cutler - The biggest thing that has held Jay Cutler back (outside of Mike Martz' LOOK OUT offensive scheme) has been Jay Cutler. This year he'll have two top 10 caliber WRs to throw to and an elite RB to dump the ball off to. The Bears defense isn't that good and in the NFC North it'll take 30+ points per game to win each week. All the makings of a great season for the enigmatic one in the Windy City. Andre Ellington - You're either a believer or not when it comes to Ellington. He showed plenty of flashes last season while splitting reps and this year the position is all his in Arizona. Whether he can hold up for 20+ touches a game is the biggest question mark. I'm on board. Joique Bell - So what if Reggie Bush is the de facto starter in Detroit. The Lions know the Bell will still be an integral part of their offense and as soon as Bush breaks down he'll get rolling. Terrance Williams - Speaking of good offenses with bad defenses, the Dallas Cowboys will be the poster-Boys in the NFL. With Miles Austin officially out of the picture in Big D and Jason Witten another year older and Dez Bryant attracting all the attention on one side of the field, Williams should be open often. Cordarrelle Patterson/Kyle Rudolph - The two most talked about breakout candidates reside in Minnesota. Whether it is Matt Cassel or rookie Teddy Bridgewater pitching the pigskin around, the Vikings have the chance to be an elite offense. Not only do they have Adrian Peterson in the backfield, but they have Norv Turner on the sidelines. Norv is a horrible head coach, but a wonderful offensive coordinator. He squeezes the most juice out of every fantasy orange he coaches. He will make sure that Patterson and Rudolph get their touches.
Busts - Cam Newton - Where to start? Coming off surgery? Yes. An inexperienced receiving corps? Yes. An aging backfield that garners little respect? Yes. I'm not banking on his rushing TDs suddenly exploding when he's not at his healthiest. In his 3 seasons his rushing TD totals have gone 14, 8 and 6. That's the wrong direction. Frank Gore - Everything is pointing to a disastrous season in San Francisco. Even their new stadium is having issues staying healthy. The 49ers defense is a mess and Jim Harbaugh is a ticking time bomb. Frank Gore served his purpose for the 49ers, but this is the year they move on. Either by injury or ineffectiveness, Gore doesn't start more than 7 games this season. Pierre Garcon/DeSean Jackson - If the Redskins learned anything this preseason it's that RGIII is not ready to stand in the pocket and deliver 30+ passes a game. Washington will be better on defense meaning they can run the ball and have a controlled passing game with TE Jordan Reed being the focal point and the WRs being more of a decoy. In 2013 the two combined for 195 catches and nearly 2700 yards (DeSean was on the Eagles) and in 2014 they'll combine for 120 catches and 2000 yards. Temper the expectations.
Regular Season MVP: Drew Brees edging out Peyton Manning
Here are your 2014 NFL Standings:
NFC EAST
Philadelphia Eagles 11-5
Dallas Cowboys 8-8
Washington Redskins 6-10
New York Giants 6-10
NFC NORTH
Green Bay Packers 13-3
Chicago Bears 11-5
Detroit Lions 9-7
Minnesota Vikings 6-10
NFC SOUTH
New Orleans Saints 12-4
Atlanta Falcons 8-8
Carolina Panthers 7-9
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5-11
NFC WEST
Seattle Seahawks 13-3
Arizona Cardinals 9-7
San Francisco 49ers 8-8
St. Louis Rams 7-9
AFC EAST
New England Patriots 13-3
New York Jets 6-10
Miami Dolphins 3-13
Buffalo Bills 3-13
AFC NORTH
Baltimore Ravens 11-5
Pittsburgh Steelers 9-7
Cincinnati Bengals 9-7
Cleveland Browns 2-14
AFC SOUTH
Indianapolis Colts 13-3
Tennessee Titans 6-10
Houston Texans 5-11
Jacksonville Jaguars 3-13
AFC WEST
Denver Broncos 13-3
Kansas City Chiefs 9-7
San Diego Chargers 7-9
Oakland Raiders 5-11
Playoffs:
NFC
1. Seattle
2. Green Bay
3. New Orleans
4. Philadelphia
5. Chicago
6. Detroit
Wild Card Round:
New Orleans over Detroit
Chicago over Philadelphia
Divisional Round:
Seattle over Chicago
Green Bay over New Orleans
NFC Championship:
Seattle over Green Bay
AFC
1. New England
2. Denver
3. Indianapolis
4. Baltimore
5. Pittsburgh
6. Kansas City
Wild Card Round:
Indianapolis over Kansas City
Baltimore over Pittsburgh
Divisional Round:
New England over Baltimore
Indianapolis over Denver
AFC Championship:
New England over Indianapolis
Super Bowl:
Seattle over New England 27-16 as Russel Wilson wins the Super Bowl MVP.
Saturday, August 9, 2014
Tom Hanks and 2014 Fantasy Football
This is by far and away my most favorite blog post of each year. It combines
the three hobbies that I enjoy most in life: sports, movies and gambling. Each
year I choose one of my favorite actors in Hollywood (movies) and compare their
body of work to the upcoming NFL season (sports) and how it relates to Fantasy
Football (gambling). For an example, last season I chose John Cusack and I think I did okay. Some good calls (Jordan
Cameron doing well and the state of New York sucking) and some bad calls (Ryan
Williams breaking out and DeSean Jackson being a bust) which is the norm for predictions
before most starters step onto the field in preseason. As always I aim for 79%
accuracy and 3 solid laughs throughout the post.
This season I'm covering one of the most recognizable actors of my lifetime, Tom Hanks. The winner of two best actor Oscars, nominated in three different decades (and nearly a fourth this past year for Captain Phillips), Hanks has done almost everything in Hollywood. He started on television with the campy Bosom Buddies, then did screwball comedies in the 80s (Bachelor Party, The Money Pit), graduated to dramas and peaking with his awards in the 90s and then turned to blockbuster franchises (Toy Story, the Dan Brown novels) and finally producing and a little directing. If you asked 100 people what their favorite Tom Hanks movie was, you would probably get 15-20 different answers. If I had to rank my top 5 Tom Hanks movies they would be:
5) Big
4) Saving Private Ryan
3) A League of Their Own
2) Toy Story
1) Apollo 13 (yes I just watched this again this past weekend, I can't turn it off when it's on)
So let me get right to it and tell you everything you'll need to know about the upcoming Fantasy Football season.
Sleepless in Seattle
Just like last season when I started with the defending champion Ravens, I head to the great Pacific Northwest where the loyal fans of the Seahawks finally got their first Lombardi Trophy. Where do I start with this stacked team? Stud RB, Marshawn Lynch? Dynamic dual threat QB Russell Wilson? Big play potential WR Percy Harvin? How about the dominating Defense? Last season was nice, but they could be even better this season.
Let's go backwards with the defense which normally doesn't get spoken about in fantasy football articles. The Seahawks defense should be the first defense drafted and it will be a round or two before any other defense. They had six games where they gave up fewer than 10 points and were the best in the league in giving up yards to the opponent. How could they get better? They only scored four defensive TDs in 2013 and with their big play potential they could easily have 2-3 more this upcoming season. Percy Harvin is the great unknown. He was completely absent in 2013 until the Super Bowl when he had a kickoff return for a touchdown (see he's helping your Seahakws defense already!). With Golden Tate gone and Sidney Rice retired, it's all on his shoulders to make the passing game a threat. Drafting him will be all about value. His name and potential will increase his ADP while his injury risk will scare some people off. If he drops, he is a must pick, but don't go too crazy. That brings us to Russell Wilson who can be really, really good just as easy as he can be really, really quiet. The Seahawks play a run first style and then lean on their defense. Unless he gets his points early it usually winds up being a quiet day at the office. Hopefully with some of the losses on the defense the Seahawks on quite as dominant forcing Wilson to have to do a little bit more, thus raising his ceiling. Don't let the Super Bowl win fool you into reaching for him. He's a great #2 in a 10 team league and a fringe starter in anything bigger. As for Marshawn Lynch, all the signs of a first round bust are there. He's had a ton of mileage on his tires with 1,002 rushes over the last three seasons (including the playoffs). That's 334 per year for those of you who don't know how to operate a calculator. He has got to be tired (I'm tired just carrying my kid up to bed once a night). There has already been talk of more of a time share in Seattle this season with Christine Michael who is a must-handcuff for anyone willing to ride the rainbow one more season.
Big & Splash - Big Splash!
This is where I cover the rookie class...you know the guys who are looking to make a big splash onto the fantasy football scene. Some people call me a genius when they read these preview posts, others just point their finger at me and laugh like Nelson on The Simpsons. Anyways, this years crop of rookies will at least get more headlines than last years did, but whether they produce on the field worthy of a draft pick in your league is yet to be seen.
QBs: Blake Bortles, Johnny Manziel and Teddy Bridgewater - DO NOT DRAFT see that was easy.
Okay to be fair I'd pick any and all of them just in case in a keeper/dynasty league, but for a re-draft league only Manziel intrigues me as a backup. He will, of course, get 98% of all the rookie headlines this season whether he warrants them or not. Bortles and his fellow rookie WRs will have their moments, but not enough to worthy wasting a draft pick. They'll be waiver wire pickups sometime this season. I know I'm not alone in think that Teddy Bridgewater is in the best spot to succeed this season and for years ahead. He has AP behind him and Cordarrelle Patterson and Kyle Rudolph to throw to with Norv Turner calling the shots. If you told me he was going to start 16 games I'd be willing to put him in my sleeper picks as a QB1 in a 12+ team league. Yeah I have high hopes.
RBs: Bishop Sankey, Tre Mason, Jeremy Hill and Carlos Hyde (and even Andre Williams) - DRAFT 'EM ALL!!!
Already Sankey is being touted as ROY potential in Tennessee since CJbarely1K has finally been pushed away to New York. He should be the first rookie RB off your draft board, but there are a few behind him that, if given the right situation could easily surpass his numbers. If for any reason Zac Stacy falls victim to a sophomore slump, Tre Mason could step right in an perform quite nicely. The same goes for Jeremy Hill in Cincinnati as he sits behind personal favorite Gio Bernard. He might even get a good chunk of the touches if Gio can't prove to be an every down back (he'll be just fine, TYVM). Carlos Hyde and Andre Williams were afterthoughts just a week or two ago, but they have already moved up the depth charts due to injuries in San Francisco and New York (Giants).
Here's all you need to know about the rookie crop of running backs, find a spot on your roster for one at the end of the draft. Don't take a backup TE, K or D or God forbid a 3rd QB. Stack the back end of your roster with as many RBs as you can and hope they turn into gold.
WRs: Five of the first 28 and 8 of the first 45 in this draft were spent on WRs.
I'm not touching any of them save for Sammy Watkins as a WR4 at best. I just don't trust rookie WRs one bit. Last season Keenan Allen surprised everyone by being quite the stud, but remember he was the 8th WR draft in the 2013 draft. It's just too difficult to pick out a diamond from the rough. Plus, there are far too many good WRs compared to RBs in the NFL which is why loading up on rookie backs is far more advisable.
TEs: Eric Ebron - As Samuel L. Jackson once said 'Hold on to your butts!'
Note to self: Control your emotions Jason, don't give it away that you are going to try and draft (in every league you're in) the best offensive player to come out of UNC since...2013. I think Eric Ebron is destined for multiple Pro-Bowl seasons in the NFL. I may be typing with rose-colored glasses on as a fan of the Tar Heels, but it believe he's the real deal. He's in a great situation even though past Detroit TEs have disappeared even while Matt Stafford was throwing for 5,000 yards per season. Use him or lose him Matty.
The Money Pit
You remember this movie? Tom Hanks and Shelley Long keep pouring money into a house in the hopes of making it their dream home with disastrously funny results. I'm a Washington Redskins fan (this does not count as one of the laughs I was looking for Mr./Ms. Reader) and under Dan Snyder, the Redskins are like these characters when it comes to free agency. If you throw money at them, they will come. Well it doesn't always work out they way it was planned. In this section I'll look at a few 'old faces in new places' and determine just how big of a money pit they'll be.
QB: Michael Vick - Fun fact, In 2003 I drafted Michael Vick #1 overall, days before he broke his leg causing him to miss the first 11 games of the season. Good times. 11 years later he's just trying to be a starter on the Jets. Unless he's named opening day starter by the time you draft you can leave him to the dogs.
RBs: Chris Johnson - Hey look another new Jet. Not guaranteed of anything more than a timeshare, Johnson's stock should be pretty low and thus intriguing as a 'just in case' measure.
Knowshown Moreno - From the penthouse to the outhouse. Moreno heads from high flying Denver to Miami. Again he's walking into a possible timeshare with last years bust Lamar Miller. Moreno is certainly the favorite to emerge, but nothing more than a RB3 in most leagues.
Maurice Jones-Drew - After years of toiling away in the wasteland known as Jacksonville, MJD now gets to ride into the sunset of his NFL career in the wasteland that is Oakland. Now the Raiders actually made some decent moves to shore up their defense this year and thus should be a bit better overall. On the other side of the ball MJD gets paired with Run-DMC who together should be healthy for at least six games. The Oakland backfield will be a mess.
Ben Tate - He finally gets his chance to shine. Well that is if he doesn't lose the starting job to rookie Terrance West as I've already heard hints of through the grapevine (which is an actual grape vine in my back yard that I put my ear up to until the neighbors begin to snicker). If you believe in him, that's fine, but temper your expectations.
Rashad Jennings - He's already gaining traction as a breakout player possibility now that David Wilson has mercifully retired due to his neck injury. The Giants as a whole will be looking to rebound after a debacle of a season and if they can, Jennings may be at the forefront. If Eli Manning continues to crap the bed, Jennings may just be another option for your BYE weeks.
Toby Gerhart - Just like Ben Tate, Gerhart now gets his chance to be a starter after being stuck behind one of the best in the game. Jacksonville has a rookie QB and a very young WR core so they should struggle again to stay consistent on offense. Draft him with a cautious upside.
Donald Brown - He has burned me so many times and is now 3rd string on a team that will rotate RBs at will. Just how much will he play is the big question. If you get Ryan Mathews and have an extra spot to fill in the last round, you could do worse than Brown.
WRs: DeSean Jackson - Now the Redskins didn't back up the truck for Jackson which I'm happy about. Washington will deploy four smallish WRs and big Jordan Reed at TE. If RGIII can figure out how to be a better pocket passer or re-gain the elusiveness as a running threat, the passing game could be lights out in DC. Jackson won't be a PPR monster, but he'll get a few big plays. Solid WR2 option.
Steve Smith - In Carolina it was always about Steve Smith being the only receiving option. Now in Baltimore he'll be able to mix in with Torrey Smith, Dennis Pitta and the one who likes to beat on women. His numbers will be down, but he could still be productive in deeper leagues.
Eric Decker - More Jets! I'm staying away from Decker unless he plummets into the abyss during a draft. He is, by far, the biggest 'money pit' player out there IMO. See Jennings, Greg for an example of what to expect.
Golden Tate - When you draft him you must sing 'I've got the Golden Ticket, I've got the golden twinkle in my eye!' Detroit should be awesome again on offense with Megatron and Reggie Bush, but now with Ebron and Tate they could be near unstoppable. The only downside for me is he'll take away from the numbers that I know Ebron is capable of.
Emmanuel Sanders - He should be good for about 85% of an Eric Decker. That is plenty good enough to draft. He'll be the fourth option on a team that should have 40+ passing TDs. You do the math.
A League of Their Own
When it comes to studs, you won't find many sites who are willing to predict a down year. I will throw out the fact that I wrote about last year for LeagueSafe.com: A first round caliber running back from a team with a losing record will miss half the season or more. FACT.
Doug Martin was the causality in 2013 when Tampa went 4-12. The trend continued:
2012: Maurice Jones-Drew (10 games), Jacksonville goes 2-14; 2011: Jamaal Charles (14 games), Kansas City goes 7-9; 2010: DeAngelo Williams (10 games), Carolina goes 2-14; 2009: Clinton Portis (8 games), Washington goes 4-12. Bad things happen to good running backs on bad teams.
So who will be the victim in 2014??? My best bets are Arian Foster or DeMarco Murray. Book it. Dark horse candidate LeSean McCoy!!
Outside of that the biggest worry I'll have with studs is Peyton Manning. He controls the fate of so may top picks. Five of the top 45 picks on ESPN.com are Broncos and Emmanuel Sanders is at 82.
We've seen what happened to Green Bay without Aaron Rodgers and Dallas without Tony Romo in the past. I bring up Manning because just because he was the best player in the NFL last year, that doesn't erase his medical history.
The two safest picks IMO of the consensus first round are neither RBs nor QBs, but rather Calvin Johnson and Jimmy Graham. If you don't get AP, Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy or Matt Forte in the top four and are scared of Peyton Manning for any reason, draft one of those two at five and six. After the first seven picks, life gets a bit more complicated.
Saving Private Ryan
Last season the Atlanta Falcons fell and fell hard. Tony Gonzalez came back to play one final year because he thought Atlanta, with the addition of Steven Jackson, had the final piece in the Super Bowl puzzle. Well a funny thing happened on the way to the parade down Peachtree Street. Jackson got injured (shocker I know), Julio Jones got injured and Roddy White missed some time. All in all it was an unmitigated disaster for quarterback Matt Ryan, so will 2014 be any different?
Steven Jackson is a year older and Tony Gonzalez finally hung up his cleats.
That's not good.
Julio Jones and Roddy White are back and healthy which is good. If Atlanta can find a running game (probably from someone other than Jackson), they have a chance to put up decent to above average numbers. I don't think Atlanta has hopes of playing in a Super Bowl this season, but Ryan should better this season. I mean, it can't go much worse than it did last year, right?
There will be some good value in Roddy White and Matt Ryan when drafting. I'd even keep an eye on Devonta Freeman who could prove worthy of more than a late round flier.
You've Got Mail
It was recently published that approximately 2.3 MILLION people are still subscribing to AOL dial up services. You have GOT to be kidding me!?!?! Remember when AOL was awesome? I barely do. This is where I will point out that some RBs might have a name that you recognize, but deep down inside you know they're waaaaay past their prime. Time to upgrade your services people.
I've already discussed a few of this years crop who are just trying to hang on to their fledgling careers.
1) MJD
2) Steven Jackson
3) Chris Johnson
Here are a few others that I would avoid unless you just can't pass them up because they've dropped like a rock:
4) BenJarvus Green-Ellis - put a fork in him, he's done. The Bengals have two young and capable backs to turn to and Green-Ellis will be looking for a roster spot somewhere when injuries happen by September.
5) DeAngelo Williams - This has been a slow bleed, as he has managed to stay healthy, but his production has basically flat lined. His last three seasons his YPC has gone 5.4, 4.3, 4.2 as his carries have increase each of those seasons. His TDs have also gone 7, 5, 3 in those same three seasons. More touches with less production and even fewer scoring. Yikes.
6) Ray Rice - He's just 27, but he's had a lot of work in a short time. Tack on the fact that he'll be missing the first two games of the season and Bernard Pierce will be itching to rebound from his sophomore slump, he is ripe for failure. Too much crap going on in his life to focus on the game.
7) Frank Gore - Prove me wrong again Gore...do it. Will this finally be the year that the 49ers use their stockpile of young backs (those that aren't already injured)? I'm saying that it is. Paging Carlos Hyde, you are needed at the sleeper desk.
Band of Brothers
Okay, so this isn't a true movie, but it's an exquisite mini series. I just couldn't pass this one up. Also don't miss 'From the Earth to the Moon' and currently airing on CNN 'The Sixties'. Have you figured out what I will be discussing in this section?
Yup, everyone's favorite coaches to hate, Jim and John Harbaugh and their teams the San Francisco 49ers and the Baltimore Ravens. Just two years ago they were fighting it out for the Super Bowl, but both fell short last season. The Niners are in a better position IMO to get back to the promised land, but the Ravens have the advantage of playing in a watered down AFC.
I've already covered both Frank Gore and Ray Rice and how I think this will be a down year for both as they have both been just so good for so long for their respective teams.
At quarterback you have two guys in Colin Kaepernick and Joe Flacco who have signed big money extensions and are now expected to be elite for a long time. The key for Kaepernick is keeping Michael Crabtree on the field. When Crabtree plays, Colin produces big time fantasy stats. He should come cheap this year and provide great upside with a full year from Crabtree.
As for Flacco, oh Joe...he had more games with 2+ interceptions in 2013 (7) than he did 2+ touchdowns (6). That's not good. Of course the Ravens O-Line was in shambles which led to not being able to run the ball at all. Being forced to throw and to throw into traffic got him in a ton of trouble. Now with a healthy Dennis Pitta and the savvy veteran, Steve Smith, things should be better. How much is the key? You will draft him as a backup, but you could wind up using him if Baltimore gets hot.
Each team has a quality TE although Vernon Davis has at least proved himself, while we are all waiting for Dennis Pitta to join the elite members of the fantasy TE world. Davis scored 13 times last season, which was the second time he's done that in his career. The last time he did that he followed it up with 13 touchdowns TOTAL over the next two seasons. I have to believe that a full season from Crabtree will cut into his total scores, but he will still be a top 5 TE nonetheless. For Pitta, his owners would be thrilled with a 'Vernon Davis down year' type year with 600 yards receiving and 6 touchdowns. Lump him in with about half a dozen other TEs that you can get cheap and late and won't hurt you too much.
At WR between Torrey and Steve Smith, Michael Crabtree and ex-Raven Anquan Boldin you have four WRs all capable of big games and stretches of inconsistent fantasy numbers. If I had to put them in order of fantasy points I'd go: Crabtree, Torrey, Steve and Anquan. All worthy of a mid round pick and all worthy of starts and sits all season long.
Catch Me If You Can
In this movie, Tom Hanks runs around trying to catch a teenager who is kiting checks and emulating a pilot and doctor among other professions. In recent years, the NFL has seen a change of pace from plodding running games and low scoring offenses, to wide open, four WR sets and Tecmo Bowl style scores. There are a glutton of WRs who will be challenging defenses who are handcuffed by today's rules to catch them if they can. *Groan* goes the audience. Yeah you all saw that one coming.
In my opinion we are almost to the point where ALL leagues should require 3 WRs to start. In you average, run of the mill, 10 team league if you only played the top 20 scoring WRs of 2013 you wouldn't have used four receivers who posted 1,000+ yards receiving and three other receivers who scored 10 TDs!! Let's look at those names:
Michael Floyd, Brian Hartline, Harry Douglas, Kendall Wright, Wes Welker, Marvin Jones and Jerricho Cotchery. You could win some fantasy games with 3 or 4 of those receivers, no? None were in the Top 20 in standard scoring on ESPN last year.
Now if you stretched out the field and were forced to own someone between 36-40 we would get:
Eddie Royal, Rod Streater, Doug Baldwin, Greg Jennings and Terrance Williams (and yet big names like Steve Smith and Dwayne Bowe are still behind them!).
WR is deep enough right now that forcing owners to find that diamond in the rough makes it more fun rather than just running out Stud A and Stud C vs Stud B and Stud D. Yawn!
More roster spots everyone!!! Make BYE weeks, trading and waiver wire pickups mean something. It's just too easy if you don't push WR (and RB for that matter) past the top 30.
The Ladykillers
I must admit, I didn't enjoy this movie one bit. I saw it in the theaters and I would rank it in my Top 10 of worst movies I've paid money to see (also listed - and don't judge me - Freddy Got Fingered, To Die For, The Royal Tennebaums, Waterworld, The Truth About Cats and Dogs (date), Lady in the Water, Funny People, Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull and Star Wars Episode I).
But I'm not here to discuss bad movies, but I am going to point out my thoughts on the real 'lady killers' of the NFL, your starting QBs of the NFL. These are the guys who get the head cheerleader, star in all of the commercials and usually just look the best (face of the franchise for a reason). Even if you suck, yeah I'm looking at you Christian Ponder, you usually do okay in life.
Let's start at the top with Peyton Manning who may not be Tom Brady when it comes to wooing the ladies, but he is the face of the NFL when it comes to advertising. Between him, Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees you have three stud QBs and then the position becomes wide open.
This year I'd be willing to lump in Matt Stafford who I think will challenge for that #3 spot, but even if he falls short he should still produce huge numbers in Detroit. If you miss out on those four, fear not, there are 6-10 more QBs I think you can win a fantasy championship with:
(In no particular order)
Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, Tony Romo, RGIII, Colin Kaepernick, Jay Cutler, Andy Dalton, Russell Wilson, Nick Foles, Tom Brady, Matt Ryan and Phillip Rivers.
That's 16!! QBs who are all worthy of starting on any given Sunday. Sure there is some wide week-to-week variance of those final dozen, but if you get them late enough you should be able to make up the points by being stronger at RB/WR/TE than your opponent who drafted Peyton/Rodgers/Brees/Stafford in Rounds 1-3.
Here's my advice: draft a stud QB if you are stuck on picking between a RB you don't like or a WR you think you can get in the next round, but wait on QBs if you are happy with your RB/WR/TE picks in the first six rounds.
Angels & Demons
For my last film of the post I cover one of the movies that came from the Dan Brown book series where Tom Hanks is the lead character Robert Langdon. It's like the 'National Treasure' series with Nick Cage only with more religion and less world history. Either way I'm a sucker for all of these movies where it's basically good vs. evil and a treasure hunt.
As for how it relates to the NFL, when you draft your team it is all about maximizing your 'sleepers' AKA 'angels' and minimizing your 'busts' AKA 'demons'. Not too much of a stretch if I do say so myself!
Angels (Sleepers)
QBs: Jay Cutler - He has Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery and Matt Forte. He played in 10 full games in 2013. The numbers he put up in those games worked out to be a 4,100+ yard, 30 TD season. He is currently going 16th overall for QBs on ESPN. He was also on pace for 18 INTs so there is that. He has all the makings of a top 8 QB in 2014.
Andy Dalton - In his three years in the NFL, Andy Dalton has started all 48 games for the Cincinnati Bengals. Each year he has seen his Attempts, Yards, TDs, Yards/Attempt, Team Record and unfortunately his INTs increase. He signed a new deal and now the question is whether he has peaked or whether he has one (or more) levels to grow. If the Bengals can find a TE to emerge and get Gio the ball 70 times out of the backfield, he may just hit that next upper level. Look for 4,400 yards, 35 TDs and 18 INTs to get the Bengals into the playoffs for their fourth straight season. That's better than the 17th overall QB as he is going right now.
RBs: Carlos Hyde - I've already touched on Frank Gore stepping aside sometime this season due to rest/injury/ineffectiveness. One of these years I'm bound to be right.
Joique Bell - Do I think Reggie Bush can put together another season of 14+ games while carrying the ball over 200 times?? No, no I do not. I think the Lions are going to play thing a bit smarter and let Bell tote the rock much more on 1st and 2nd down and let Bush be the 3rd down, trailing late in the game back. Bell gets an extra 60 attempts and finishes around 900 yards and 10 TDs. Bush still catches 50 passes and has 6 total TDs, but Bell is the Lions back I want.
WRs: Terrance Williams - Oh thank heavens that Miles Austin is gone for good from Dallas. Maybe now they can find someone to lighten the coverage for Dez Bryant and Jason Witten on the opposite side of the field. He's got a 1,000 yard season ahead of him with 7 TDs as Dallas will need to score 30+ points a week to have a chance. Currently he's the 37th WR coming off the board on ESPN.
Riley Cooper - I stay in the NFC East for another WR who showed flashes last season although he was stuck behind other guys. Well DeSean Jackson is gone and the Eagles aren't about to stop their high paced, fun and gun style. Somebody has to pick up the slack as the deep threat option. With Darren Sproles working underneath, Cooper should find some openings over the top to the tune of double digits TDs.
TE - Ladarius Green - He has had time to learn from one of the best and now he takes the lead. He showed some promise in the middle of the season last year so I know he can do it. Antonio Gates didn't top 50 yards receiving over the final six weeks of the season as father time was catching up to him. Draft Green as a backup and watch him explode by Week 5.
Demons (Busts)
QBs: Cam Newton - I know all about his top 4 streak he has going as a fantasy quarterback. That ends with a bang this year. A diminishing running attack, the loss of his safety valve in Steve Smith and the off-season surgery all adds up to an ugly year. Outside of the top 15 for Newton.
Johnny Manziel - Being drafted ahead of Jay Cutler and Andy Dalton. I'm sorry, but I'm just not on board for fantasy greatness just yet. I love the enthusiasm, but I think there will be a learning curve than most all rookies go through. If he had Josh Gordon the whole season, maybe, just maybe I'd get fully on board.
RBs: Who haven't I named already? Gore, Reggie Bush, DeMarco Murray and Arian Foster are my big four.
Overall I think this will be a down year for RBs which makes hitting pay dirt all the more important. Which is why so many people are using their first two picks on a WR/QB combo and then just loading up on 4-5 middle tier RBs and hoping to get lucky.
WRs: Andre Johnson - Blame this on Ryan Fitzpatrick. That's all I have and that's all I need. His numbers come back to Earth this year.
Larry Fitzgerald - His value rebounded last season thanks in large part to the 10 TDs while not even hitting 1,000 yards receiving (for the second consecutive season). Third times the charm has he fails to hit even 900 yards receiving and only 5 TDs.
TE: Outside of Antonio Gates you ask?
Julius Thomas - When something is just too good to be true like last season was for Thomas, I get a weird feeling. After scoring 8 times in the first 7 weeks he found the end zone just 4 times over the last 9 weeks including two lost to injury. Everything won't be all butterflies and rainbows this season in Denver so temper your expectations.
So that's it for this season. If you have read this you are already 8% of the way to winning your league! Congrats and please make all checks of your winnings payable to Jason Wippich.
Good luck and have fun.
This season I'm covering one of the most recognizable actors of my lifetime, Tom Hanks. The winner of two best actor Oscars, nominated in three different decades (and nearly a fourth this past year for Captain Phillips), Hanks has done almost everything in Hollywood. He started on television with the campy Bosom Buddies, then did screwball comedies in the 80s (Bachelor Party, The Money Pit), graduated to dramas and peaking with his awards in the 90s and then turned to blockbuster franchises (Toy Story, the Dan Brown novels) and finally producing and a little directing. If you asked 100 people what their favorite Tom Hanks movie was, you would probably get 15-20 different answers. If I had to rank my top 5 Tom Hanks movies they would be:
5) Big
4) Saving Private Ryan
3) A League of Their Own
2) Toy Story
1) Apollo 13 (yes I just watched this again this past weekend, I can't turn it off when it's on)
So let me get right to it and tell you everything you'll need to know about the upcoming Fantasy Football season.
Sleepless in Seattle
Just like last season when I started with the defending champion Ravens, I head to the great Pacific Northwest where the loyal fans of the Seahawks finally got their first Lombardi Trophy. Where do I start with this stacked team? Stud RB, Marshawn Lynch? Dynamic dual threat QB Russell Wilson? Big play potential WR Percy Harvin? How about the dominating Defense? Last season was nice, but they could be even better this season.
Let's go backwards with the defense which normally doesn't get spoken about in fantasy football articles. The Seahawks defense should be the first defense drafted and it will be a round or two before any other defense. They had six games where they gave up fewer than 10 points and were the best in the league in giving up yards to the opponent. How could they get better? They only scored four defensive TDs in 2013 and with their big play potential they could easily have 2-3 more this upcoming season. Percy Harvin is the great unknown. He was completely absent in 2013 until the Super Bowl when he had a kickoff return for a touchdown (see he's helping your Seahakws defense already!). With Golden Tate gone and Sidney Rice retired, it's all on his shoulders to make the passing game a threat. Drafting him will be all about value. His name and potential will increase his ADP while his injury risk will scare some people off. If he drops, he is a must pick, but don't go too crazy. That brings us to Russell Wilson who can be really, really good just as easy as he can be really, really quiet. The Seahawks play a run first style and then lean on their defense. Unless he gets his points early it usually winds up being a quiet day at the office. Hopefully with some of the losses on the defense the Seahawks on quite as dominant forcing Wilson to have to do a little bit more, thus raising his ceiling. Don't let the Super Bowl win fool you into reaching for him. He's a great #2 in a 10 team league and a fringe starter in anything bigger. As for Marshawn Lynch, all the signs of a first round bust are there. He's had a ton of mileage on his tires with 1,002 rushes over the last three seasons (including the playoffs). That's 334 per year for those of you who don't know how to operate a calculator. He has got to be tired (I'm tired just carrying my kid up to bed once a night). There has already been talk of more of a time share in Seattle this season with Christine Michael who is a must-handcuff for anyone willing to ride the rainbow one more season.
Big & Splash - Big Splash!
This is where I cover the rookie class...you know the guys who are looking to make a big splash onto the fantasy football scene. Some people call me a genius when they read these preview posts, others just point their finger at me and laugh like Nelson on The Simpsons. Anyways, this years crop of rookies will at least get more headlines than last years did, but whether they produce on the field worthy of a draft pick in your league is yet to be seen.
QBs: Blake Bortles, Johnny Manziel and Teddy Bridgewater - DO NOT DRAFT see that was easy.
Okay to be fair I'd pick any and all of them just in case in a keeper/dynasty league, but for a re-draft league only Manziel intrigues me as a backup. He will, of course, get 98% of all the rookie headlines this season whether he warrants them or not. Bortles and his fellow rookie WRs will have their moments, but not enough to worthy wasting a draft pick. They'll be waiver wire pickups sometime this season. I know I'm not alone in think that Teddy Bridgewater is in the best spot to succeed this season and for years ahead. He has AP behind him and Cordarrelle Patterson and Kyle Rudolph to throw to with Norv Turner calling the shots. If you told me he was going to start 16 games I'd be willing to put him in my sleeper picks as a QB1 in a 12+ team league. Yeah I have high hopes.
RBs: Bishop Sankey, Tre Mason, Jeremy Hill and Carlos Hyde (and even Andre Williams) - DRAFT 'EM ALL!!!
Already Sankey is being touted as ROY potential in Tennessee since CJbarely1K has finally been pushed away to New York. He should be the first rookie RB off your draft board, but there are a few behind him that, if given the right situation could easily surpass his numbers. If for any reason Zac Stacy falls victim to a sophomore slump, Tre Mason could step right in an perform quite nicely. The same goes for Jeremy Hill in Cincinnati as he sits behind personal favorite Gio Bernard. He might even get a good chunk of the touches if Gio can't prove to be an every down back (he'll be just fine, TYVM). Carlos Hyde and Andre Williams were afterthoughts just a week or two ago, but they have already moved up the depth charts due to injuries in San Francisco and New York (Giants).
Here's all you need to know about the rookie crop of running backs, find a spot on your roster for one at the end of the draft. Don't take a backup TE, K or D or God forbid a 3rd QB. Stack the back end of your roster with as many RBs as you can and hope they turn into gold.
WRs: Five of the first 28 and 8 of the first 45 in this draft were spent on WRs.
I'm not touching any of them save for Sammy Watkins as a WR4 at best. I just don't trust rookie WRs one bit. Last season Keenan Allen surprised everyone by being quite the stud, but remember he was the 8th WR draft in the 2013 draft. It's just too difficult to pick out a diamond from the rough. Plus, there are far too many good WRs compared to RBs in the NFL which is why loading up on rookie backs is far more advisable.
TEs: Eric Ebron - As Samuel L. Jackson once said 'Hold on to your butts!'
Note to self: Control your emotions Jason, don't give it away that you are going to try and draft (in every league you're in) the best offensive player to come out of UNC since...2013. I think Eric Ebron is destined for multiple Pro-Bowl seasons in the NFL. I may be typing with rose-colored glasses on as a fan of the Tar Heels, but it believe he's the real deal. He's in a great situation even though past Detroit TEs have disappeared even while Matt Stafford was throwing for 5,000 yards per season. Use him or lose him Matty.
The Money Pit
You remember this movie? Tom Hanks and Shelley Long keep pouring money into a house in the hopes of making it their dream home with disastrously funny results. I'm a Washington Redskins fan (this does not count as one of the laughs I was looking for Mr./Ms. Reader) and under Dan Snyder, the Redskins are like these characters when it comes to free agency. If you throw money at them, they will come. Well it doesn't always work out they way it was planned. In this section I'll look at a few 'old faces in new places' and determine just how big of a money pit they'll be.
QB: Michael Vick - Fun fact, In 2003 I drafted Michael Vick #1 overall, days before he broke his leg causing him to miss the first 11 games of the season. Good times. 11 years later he's just trying to be a starter on the Jets. Unless he's named opening day starter by the time you draft you can leave him to the dogs.
RBs: Chris Johnson - Hey look another new Jet. Not guaranteed of anything more than a timeshare, Johnson's stock should be pretty low and thus intriguing as a 'just in case' measure.
Knowshown Moreno - From the penthouse to the outhouse. Moreno heads from high flying Denver to Miami. Again he's walking into a possible timeshare with last years bust Lamar Miller. Moreno is certainly the favorite to emerge, but nothing more than a RB3 in most leagues.
Maurice Jones-Drew - After years of toiling away in the wasteland known as Jacksonville, MJD now gets to ride into the sunset of his NFL career in the wasteland that is Oakland. Now the Raiders actually made some decent moves to shore up their defense this year and thus should be a bit better overall. On the other side of the ball MJD gets paired with Run-DMC who together should be healthy for at least six games. The Oakland backfield will be a mess.
Ben Tate - He finally gets his chance to shine. Well that is if he doesn't lose the starting job to rookie Terrance West as I've already heard hints of through the grapevine (which is an actual grape vine in my back yard that I put my ear up to until the neighbors begin to snicker). If you believe in him, that's fine, but temper your expectations.
Rashad Jennings - He's already gaining traction as a breakout player possibility now that David Wilson has mercifully retired due to his neck injury. The Giants as a whole will be looking to rebound after a debacle of a season and if they can, Jennings may be at the forefront. If Eli Manning continues to crap the bed, Jennings may just be another option for your BYE weeks.
Toby Gerhart - Just like Ben Tate, Gerhart now gets his chance to be a starter after being stuck behind one of the best in the game. Jacksonville has a rookie QB and a very young WR core so they should struggle again to stay consistent on offense. Draft him with a cautious upside.
Donald Brown - He has burned me so many times and is now 3rd string on a team that will rotate RBs at will. Just how much will he play is the big question. If you get Ryan Mathews and have an extra spot to fill in the last round, you could do worse than Brown.
WRs: DeSean Jackson - Now the Redskins didn't back up the truck for Jackson which I'm happy about. Washington will deploy four smallish WRs and big Jordan Reed at TE. If RGIII can figure out how to be a better pocket passer or re-gain the elusiveness as a running threat, the passing game could be lights out in DC. Jackson won't be a PPR monster, but he'll get a few big plays. Solid WR2 option.
Steve Smith - In Carolina it was always about Steve Smith being the only receiving option. Now in Baltimore he'll be able to mix in with Torrey Smith, Dennis Pitta and the one who likes to beat on women. His numbers will be down, but he could still be productive in deeper leagues.
Eric Decker - More Jets! I'm staying away from Decker unless he plummets into the abyss during a draft. He is, by far, the biggest 'money pit' player out there IMO. See Jennings, Greg for an example of what to expect.
Golden Tate - When you draft him you must sing 'I've got the Golden Ticket, I've got the golden twinkle in my eye!' Detroit should be awesome again on offense with Megatron and Reggie Bush, but now with Ebron and Tate they could be near unstoppable. The only downside for me is he'll take away from the numbers that I know Ebron is capable of.
Emmanuel Sanders - He should be good for about 85% of an Eric Decker. That is plenty good enough to draft. He'll be the fourth option on a team that should have 40+ passing TDs. You do the math.
A League of Their Own
When it comes to studs, you won't find many sites who are willing to predict a down year. I will throw out the fact that I wrote about last year for LeagueSafe.com: A first round caliber running back from a team with a losing record will miss half the season or more. FACT.
Doug Martin was the causality in 2013 when Tampa went 4-12. The trend continued:
2012: Maurice Jones-Drew (10 games), Jacksonville goes 2-14; 2011: Jamaal Charles (14 games), Kansas City goes 7-9; 2010: DeAngelo Williams (10 games), Carolina goes 2-14; 2009: Clinton Portis (8 games), Washington goes 4-12. Bad things happen to good running backs on bad teams.
So who will be the victim in 2014??? My best bets are Arian Foster or DeMarco Murray. Book it. Dark horse candidate LeSean McCoy!!
Outside of that the biggest worry I'll have with studs is Peyton Manning. He controls the fate of so may top picks. Five of the top 45 picks on ESPN.com are Broncos and Emmanuel Sanders is at 82.
We've seen what happened to Green Bay without Aaron Rodgers and Dallas without Tony Romo in the past. I bring up Manning because just because he was the best player in the NFL last year, that doesn't erase his medical history.
The two safest picks IMO of the consensus first round are neither RBs nor QBs, but rather Calvin Johnson and Jimmy Graham. If you don't get AP, Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy or Matt Forte in the top four and are scared of Peyton Manning for any reason, draft one of those two at five and six. After the first seven picks, life gets a bit more complicated.
Saving Private Ryan
Last season the Atlanta Falcons fell and fell hard. Tony Gonzalez came back to play one final year because he thought Atlanta, with the addition of Steven Jackson, had the final piece in the Super Bowl puzzle. Well a funny thing happened on the way to the parade down Peachtree Street. Jackson got injured (shocker I know), Julio Jones got injured and Roddy White missed some time. All in all it was an unmitigated disaster for quarterback Matt Ryan, so will 2014 be any different?
Steven Jackson is a year older and Tony Gonzalez finally hung up his cleats.
That's not good.
Julio Jones and Roddy White are back and healthy which is good. If Atlanta can find a running game (probably from someone other than Jackson), they have a chance to put up decent to above average numbers. I don't think Atlanta has hopes of playing in a Super Bowl this season, but Ryan should better this season. I mean, it can't go much worse than it did last year, right?
There will be some good value in Roddy White and Matt Ryan when drafting. I'd even keep an eye on Devonta Freeman who could prove worthy of more than a late round flier.
You've Got Mail
It was recently published that approximately 2.3 MILLION people are still subscribing to AOL dial up services. You have GOT to be kidding me!?!?! Remember when AOL was awesome? I barely do. This is where I will point out that some RBs might have a name that you recognize, but deep down inside you know they're waaaaay past their prime. Time to upgrade your services people.
I've already discussed a few of this years crop who are just trying to hang on to their fledgling careers.
1) MJD
2) Steven Jackson
3) Chris Johnson
Here are a few others that I would avoid unless you just can't pass them up because they've dropped like a rock:
4) BenJarvus Green-Ellis - put a fork in him, he's done. The Bengals have two young and capable backs to turn to and Green-Ellis will be looking for a roster spot somewhere when injuries happen by September.
5) DeAngelo Williams - This has been a slow bleed, as he has managed to stay healthy, but his production has basically flat lined. His last three seasons his YPC has gone 5.4, 4.3, 4.2 as his carries have increase each of those seasons. His TDs have also gone 7, 5, 3 in those same three seasons. More touches with less production and even fewer scoring. Yikes.
6) Ray Rice - He's just 27, but he's had a lot of work in a short time. Tack on the fact that he'll be missing the first two games of the season and Bernard Pierce will be itching to rebound from his sophomore slump, he is ripe for failure. Too much crap going on in his life to focus on the game.
7) Frank Gore - Prove me wrong again Gore...do it. Will this finally be the year that the 49ers use their stockpile of young backs (those that aren't already injured)? I'm saying that it is. Paging Carlos Hyde, you are needed at the sleeper desk.
Band of Brothers
Okay, so this isn't a true movie, but it's an exquisite mini series. I just couldn't pass this one up. Also don't miss 'From the Earth to the Moon' and currently airing on CNN 'The Sixties'. Have you figured out what I will be discussing in this section?
Yup, everyone's favorite coaches to hate, Jim and John Harbaugh and their teams the San Francisco 49ers and the Baltimore Ravens. Just two years ago they were fighting it out for the Super Bowl, but both fell short last season. The Niners are in a better position IMO to get back to the promised land, but the Ravens have the advantage of playing in a watered down AFC.
I've already covered both Frank Gore and Ray Rice and how I think this will be a down year for both as they have both been just so good for so long for their respective teams.
At quarterback you have two guys in Colin Kaepernick and Joe Flacco who have signed big money extensions and are now expected to be elite for a long time. The key for Kaepernick is keeping Michael Crabtree on the field. When Crabtree plays, Colin produces big time fantasy stats. He should come cheap this year and provide great upside with a full year from Crabtree.
As for Flacco, oh Joe...he had more games with 2+ interceptions in 2013 (7) than he did 2+ touchdowns (6). That's not good. Of course the Ravens O-Line was in shambles which led to not being able to run the ball at all. Being forced to throw and to throw into traffic got him in a ton of trouble. Now with a healthy Dennis Pitta and the savvy veteran, Steve Smith, things should be better. How much is the key? You will draft him as a backup, but you could wind up using him if Baltimore gets hot.
Each team has a quality TE although Vernon Davis has at least proved himself, while we are all waiting for Dennis Pitta to join the elite members of the fantasy TE world. Davis scored 13 times last season, which was the second time he's done that in his career. The last time he did that he followed it up with 13 touchdowns TOTAL over the next two seasons. I have to believe that a full season from Crabtree will cut into his total scores, but he will still be a top 5 TE nonetheless. For Pitta, his owners would be thrilled with a 'Vernon Davis down year' type year with 600 yards receiving and 6 touchdowns. Lump him in with about half a dozen other TEs that you can get cheap and late and won't hurt you too much.
At WR between Torrey and Steve Smith, Michael Crabtree and ex-Raven Anquan Boldin you have four WRs all capable of big games and stretches of inconsistent fantasy numbers. If I had to put them in order of fantasy points I'd go: Crabtree, Torrey, Steve and Anquan. All worthy of a mid round pick and all worthy of starts and sits all season long.
Catch Me If You Can
In this movie, Tom Hanks runs around trying to catch a teenager who is kiting checks and emulating a pilot and doctor among other professions. In recent years, the NFL has seen a change of pace from plodding running games and low scoring offenses, to wide open, four WR sets and Tecmo Bowl style scores. There are a glutton of WRs who will be challenging defenses who are handcuffed by today's rules to catch them if they can. *Groan* goes the audience. Yeah you all saw that one coming.
In my opinion we are almost to the point where ALL leagues should require 3 WRs to start. In you average, run of the mill, 10 team league if you only played the top 20 scoring WRs of 2013 you wouldn't have used four receivers who posted 1,000+ yards receiving and three other receivers who scored 10 TDs!! Let's look at those names:
Michael Floyd, Brian Hartline, Harry Douglas, Kendall Wright, Wes Welker, Marvin Jones and Jerricho Cotchery. You could win some fantasy games with 3 or 4 of those receivers, no? None were in the Top 20 in standard scoring on ESPN last year.
Now if you stretched out the field and were forced to own someone between 36-40 we would get:
Eddie Royal, Rod Streater, Doug Baldwin, Greg Jennings and Terrance Williams (and yet big names like Steve Smith and Dwayne Bowe are still behind them!).
WR is deep enough right now that forcing owners to find that diamond in the rough makes it more fun rather than just running out Stud A and Stud C vs Stud B and Stud D. Yawn!
More roster spots everyone!!! Make BYE weeks, trading and waiver wire pickups mean something. It's just too easy if you don't push WR (and RB for that matter) past the top 30.
The Ladykillers
I must admit, I didn't enjoy this movie one bit. I saw it in the theaters and I would rank it in my Top 10 of worst movies I've paid money to see (also listed - and don't judge me - Freddy Got Fingered, To Die For, The Royal Tennebaums, Waterworld, The Truth About Cats and Dogs (date), Lady in the Water, Funny People, Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull and Star Wars Episode I).
But I'm not here to discuss bad movies, but I am going to point out my thoughts on the real 'lady killers' of the NFL, your starting QBs of the NFL. These are the guys who get the head cheerleader, star in all of the commercials and usually just look the best (face of the franchise for a reason). Even if you suck, yeah I'm looking at you Christian Ponder, you usually do okay in life.
Let's start at the top with Peyton Manning who may not be Tom Brady when it comes to wooing the ladies, but he is the face of the NFL when it comes to advertising. Between him, Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees you have three stud QBs and then the position becomes wide open.
This year I'd be willing to lump in Matt Stafford who I think will challenge for that #3 spot, but even if he falls short he should still produce huge numbers in Detroit. If you miss out on those four, fear not, there are 6-10 more QBs I think you can win a fantasy championship with:
(In no particular order)
Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, Tony Romo, RGIII, Colin Kaepernick, Jay Cutler, Andy Dalton, Russell Wilson, Nick Foles, Tom Brady, Matt Ryan and Phillip Rivers.
That's 16!! QBs who are all worthy of starting on any given Sunday. Sure there is some wide week-to-week variance of those final dozen, but if you get them late enough you should be able to make up the points by being stronger at RB/WR/TE than your opponent who drafted Peyton/Rodgers/Brees/Stafford in Rounds 1-3.
Here's my advice: draft a stud QB if you are stuck on picking between a RB you don't like or a WR you think you can get in the next round, but wait on QBs if you are happy with your RB/WR/TE picks in the first six rounds.
Angels & Demons
For my last film of the post I cover one of the movies that came from the Dan Brown book series where Tom Hanks is the lead character Robert Langdon. It's like the 'National Treasure' series with Nick Cage only with more religion and less world history. Either way I'm a sucker for all of these movies where it's basically good vs. evil and a treasure hunt.
As for how it relates to the NFL, when you draft your team it is all about maximizing your 'sleepers' AKA 'angels' and minimizing your 'busts' AKA 'demons'. Not too much of a stretch if I do say so myself!
Angels (Sleepers)
QBs: Jay Cutler - He has Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery and Matt Forte. He played in 10 full games in 2013. The numbers he put up in those games worked out to be a 4,100+ yard, 30 TD season. He is currently going 16th overall for QBs on ESPN. He was also on pace for 18 INTs so there is that. He has all the makings of a top 8 QB in 2014.
Andy Dalton - In his three years in the NFL, Andy Dalton has started all 48 games for the Cincinnati Bengals. Each year he has seen his Attempts, Yards, TDs, Yards/Attempt, Team Record and unfortunately his INTs increase. He signed a new deal and now the question is whether he has peaked or whether he has one (or more) levels to grow. If the Bengals can find a TE to emerge and get Gio the ball 70 times out of the backfield, he may just hit that next upper level. Look for 4,400 yards, 35 TDs and 18 INTs to get the Bengals into the playoffs for their fourth straight season. That's better than the 17th overall QB as he is going right now.
RBs: Carlos Hyde - I've already touched on Frank Gore stepping aside sometime this season due to rest/injury/ineffectiveness. One of these years I'm bound to be right.
Joique Bell - Do I think Reggie Bush can put together another season of 14+ games while carrying the ball over 200 times?? No, no I do not. I think the Lions are going to play thing a bit smarter and let Bell tote the rock much more on 1st and 2nd down and let Bush be the 3rd down, trailing late in the game back. Bell gets an extra 60 attempts and finishes around 900 yards and 10 TDs. Bush still catches 50 passes and has 6 total TDs, but Bell is the Lions back I want.
WRs: Terrance Williams - Oh thank heavens that Miles Austin is gone for good from Dallas. Maybe now they can find someone to lighten the coverage for Dez Bryant and Jason Witten on the opposite side of the field. He's got a 1,000 yard season ahead of him with 7 TDs as Dallas will need to score 30+ points a week to have a chance. Currently he's the 37th WR coming off the board on ESPN.
Riley Cooper - I stay in the NFC East for another WR who showed flashes last season although he was stuck behind other guys. Well DeSean Jackson is gone and the Eagles aren't about to stop their high paced, fun and gun style. Somebody has to pick up the slack as the deep threat option. With Darren Sproles working underneath, Cooper should find some openings over the top to the tune of double digits TDs.
TE - Ladarius Green - He has had time to learn from one of the best and now he takes the lead. He showed some promise in the middle of the season last year so I know he can do it. Antonio Gates didn't top 50 yards receiving over the final six weeks of the season as father time was catching up to him. Draft Green as a backup and watch him explode by Week 5.
Demons (Busts)
QBs: Cam Newton - I know all about his top 4 streak he has going as a fantasy quarterback. That ends with a bang this year. A diminishing running attack, the loss of his safety valve in Steve Smith and the off-season surgery all adds up to an ugly year. Outside of the top 15 for Newton.
Johnny Manziel - Being drafted ahead of Jay Cutler and Andy Dalton. I'm sorry, but I'm just not on board for fantasy greatness just yet. I love the enthusiasm, but I think there will be a learning curve than most all rookies go through. If he had Josh Gordon the whole season, maybe, just maybe I'd get fully on board.
RBs: Who haven't I named already? Gore, Reggie Bush, DeMarco Murray and Arian Foster are my big four.
Overall I think this will be a down year for RBs which makes hitting pay dirt all the more important. Which is why so many people are using their first two picks on a WR/QB combo and then just loading up on 4-5 middle tier RBs and hoping to get lucky.
WRs: Andre Johnson - Blame this on Ryan Fitzpatrick. That's all I have and that's all I need. His numbers come back to Earth this year.
Larry Fitzgerald - His value rebounded last season thanks in large part to the 10 TDs while not even hitting 1,000 yards receiving (for the second consecutive season). Third times the charm has he fails to hit even 900 yards receiving and only 5 TDs.
TE: Outside of Antonio Gates you ask?
Julius Thomas - When something is just too good to be true like last season was for Thomas, I get a weird feeling. After scoring 8 times in the first 7 weeks he found the end zone just 4 times over the last 9 weeks including two lost to injury. Everything won't be all butterflies and rainbows this season in Denver so temper your expectations.
So that's it for this season. If you have read this you are already 8% of the way to winning your league! Congrats and please make all checks of your winnings payable to Jason Wippich.
Good luck and have fun.
Friday, March 7, 2014
Sports Bucket List
Now that I'm inching towards the halfway point of the average life expectancy (77.4 years as of 2008 per Wikipedia) for men I figured I'd better start piecing together my Sports Bucket List. Everyone will probably create some type of bucket list during their lifetime and I'm sure I'll do one as well that is not centered around sports, but for now this is what I want to do/see/visit/enjoy before I'm laid to rest.
What a morbid topic Jason...let me tell you what got me thinking about this. I was watching the first UNC v Duke men's basketball game this year and tweeted to @midatlanticbias (another Jason) who happens to be a Duke fan that we should watch a season series of UNC/Duke with each other. Him walking into the palace that is the Dean Dome and me slithering into the cramped, overheated high school gym that is Cameron Indoor Stadium. Now I have already watched a game in each of the two locations. About a decade ago I went with a high school friend to watch a U. of Maryland vs Duke game near the height of their rivalry. I wore a red t-shirt with the words 'Kick Their Ass' written on it in the heart of the 'Cameron Crazies.' Outside of the ticket taker, not one student said a mean word to me. I didn't even get that many dirty looks. Duke won which probably kept me from getting into a shoving match post game, but the experience was fun. Just last month I finally got to see UNC play at home when they defeated Pitt. The place was loud and it was nice to be surrounded by a bunch of fans rooting for the same team unlike my previous three UNC games that I had seen in person: 1) at Princeton 2) in DC during the ACC tournament with a mixed bag of fans 3) at the ACC Championship game last season with a bunch of Miami fans in my section as the Hurricanes won the title.
Okay I'm getting off track...back to the bucket list.
The easiest way for me will be going from sport to sport (whether you like it or not, I will be including poker as a sport).
Baseball
1) Attend a Game 7 - any Game 7 (bonus points to it including the Oakland Athletics or Washington Nationals). I was fortunate enough to see a playoff game finally two seasons ago when Jayson Werth hit a walk-off HR in Game 4 against St. Louis for the Nationals. I don't remember what ever came of that Game 5 though.
2) See the All-Star festivities - Mainly I want to watch a HR derby. Yes I'm an old soul when it comes to baseball and I thoroughly enjoy a good old fashioned HR derby. I'd go to the All Star game too, but the derby does it for me more so.
3) 30 games in 30 (or 31) days - Maybe not like this one, but something similar without the plane flights. Me and three other people in a camper going coast to coast. It can be done with the right scheduling by MLB as long as the teams who share cities play on the same day and night so you can hit both in one day. I'll blog it if somebody's wants to pay for it :)
4) Throw live to a major league hitter - This one is about 4 years expired as my shoulder has gone to hell, but what I wouldn't have given to throw live to any MLBer during my prime. Sure they would've crushed me, but what fun I would've had.
5) Spend a week with my High School pals in Arizona for Spring Training - My core high school group of friends included two A's fans, a Cubs fan, a Brewers fan, a Yankees fan and a Tigers fan. 4-2 Arizona to Florida (plus I've been to spring training in Florida).
6) Go to Opening Day - This seems like an easy one to accomplish, but I have never gotten around to doing it. Shame on me.
Football
1) Watch the Redskins play (and win) an NFC Championship Game at home - This has many factors that 20 years ago looked to be a distinct possibility, but now looks near impossible. The Redskins have hosted just two playoff games since moving out of DC. I could be sitting on this one for a while.
2) Go to a Super Bowl when the Redskins aren't playing - Jokes aside about how easy this one could be, I don't think I'd like to be in house while the Redskins are playing in a Super Bowl. I'd much rather be around my friends and family. Football is the one sport that I like watching in a social atmosphere. I cuss far too much when watching baseball, hockey and college basketball to be around people I care about.
3) See JMU make the jump to Division 1 and watch UNC play for a National Championship - JMU seems on the cusp of making the leap away from 1-AA (I'm not using the proper terminology for a reason). Then when they beat Virginia Tech it won't be as much as a shock. UNC had a great season in 1997 and have been up and down since (with some help from some boosters and tutors). My hope is they at least play in a BCS level game in the next few years and possibly have that one magical season within the next 10-15 years.
Basketball
1) Go to a Final Four - I possibly could stomach watching UNC live there, but I'd probably be escorted out of the building before the first television timeout. There was a distinct possibility that I was going to get to go to the Final Four in New Orleans in 2012 through a work connection via my sister if UNC had gone, but stupid ass Creighton had to go and injure Kendall Marshall and derail a probable UNC/UK rematch. Still, and forever, bitter.
2) Watch UNC/Duke in both arenas - Already discussed above.
3) Be on UNC's campus during a Final Four/Championship victory - I have been on campus for four UNC games in my life. I was there when UNC lost to Duke, I was there when UNC lost the 1998 Final Four to Utah and I was there when UNC lost to Florida in the 2000 Final Four. Thankfully UNC beat Pitt last month or I may have never gone back.
4) Watch JMU become the next GMU/VCU/Wichita St. - I went to James Madison University (shocking as that is with my affinity to UNC throughout this blog) from 1996-2000. After making the NCAA Tournament in 1994 which was the culmination of 5 straight CAA regular season titles, I had hopes that JMU might be really good while I was there. After all they had legendary head coach Lefty Driesell at the helm. He had spoken to the freshman during orientation in 1996 and then promptly stepped down after our freshman year to go to Georgia St.. JMU won 16 games my freshman year, 11 my sophomore year, 16 my junior year and then had a great senior year with 20 wins. They didn't make the NCAA throughout until breaking a lengthy drought with an appearance last season where they picked up a play-in (1st round) win before losing to Indiana. What I want to see is JMU become the darling of the nation for three weekends in March/April. They don't have to win it all, but to emulate what fellow CAA members GMU and VCU have done would be nice (as long as they don't step on UNC like GMU did).
5) Witness the Washington Bullets Wizards return to glory - The reason I'm a Detroit Pistons fan is because the Washington franchise was just too embarrassing when I was a youth. I like the direction they are finally heading in with youthful talent and hopefully they're getting good enough to woo a veteran superstar to get them over the hump. No I don't think LeBron is headed to D.C., but I just can't understand why people won't consider playing here now that Washington has a couple of pieces in place to win.
Hockey
1) Go to the Winter Classic in 2015 - There is only one item on my Christmas list this year and it's to go to the spectacle that is the Winter Classic. With the Washington Capitals trending downward, next year could be a major crossroads for the franchise. Which leads me into the only bucket list item that matters for this category...
2) Witness a Stanley Cup for the Capitals franchise - I've been to regular season games, 1st round playoff games, 2nd round playoff games and even an Eastern Conference Final game back in 1998. I've sat through four overtime horror shows and screamed in excitement after a Game 7 OT game winner (thank you Joel Ward). The highs have been high and the lows have been soul crushing. I know I will literally weep like a baby if the Capitals ever hoist Lord Stanley's Cup.
3) Watch a Game 7 playoff game live when the Capitals win - I've never been to Game 7 in the playoffs and for good reason as a Capitals fan. It hasn't been pretty. One year I'll suck it up and go to try and break the trend, but the fan in me knows what will happen.
Poker
1) Play in the WSOP Main Event - $10,000 buy in with the longest odds of winning millions of dollars. I just want the chance.
2) Play in a $5,000 WPT Event - 1/2 the cost, much better odds of winning.
Obviously I better start making some more $$ if I want either of those to come true.
Golf
1) Hit a hole-in-one - It's every golfers dream and I got within 10 feet once when I used to play a bit more. Simple dream, difficult to achieve.
2) Watch the Masters in person - It's not spring until I start seeing commercials for the Masters on CBS. The best looking course in the world with the best players competing, what more could one ask for?
Soccer
1) Watch the USA win the World Cup - I was fortunate to go to a World Cup match back in 1994 when Mexico and Norway played at RFK in D.C.. I love international soccer (really any international competition when the best are playing the best in any event) and just once the USA will make that magical run to shock the world.
Olypmics
1) Go to an Olympics: Summer or Winter or both - I love the Olympics for the same reason I love the World Cup. I'm a competition junkie. I took off of work during the 2nd week of the Winter Olympics once again to watch the Men's Hockey tournament in peace and quiet. It's what I do. The USA is due to host the Summer Olympics within the next 20 years and I'm in wherever they may be. Same goes for the Winter Olympics and especially the Men's Hockey....
2) Watch the USA men win Gold Medal in the Olympics - The one sporting event I wish I had been at live would easily have been the 'Miracle on Ice' in 1980. While the USA winning a gold medal won't reach the fervor that occurred in 1980, it'll still be fantastic.
Horse Racing
1) Go to the Kentucky Derby - I have already asked my wife to book a trip to Kentucky for my 40th birthday which just happens to be the next time that the Derby falls on my birthday. Perfect. I'll see you there in 2018. I'll be betting on the 5 horse and the 10 horse.
I'm sure I'm missing stuff like going to the Big House to watch a Michigan game or tailgating before an Auburn v Alabama game in college football. I want to go to Dodger Stadium and sit in the 5th upper level or just sit with Vin Scully for nine innings. I'd love to meet a ton of people including Dean Smith even with his heartbreaking mental state right now. I'm sure my list could go on and on because outside of my personal favorite teams, I just love sports.
I know I'd love to sit in with Bill Belichick or any other NFL head coach for a week and see what exactly goes into game planning for a week. Obviously coaching a single MLB game would be ridiculous.
So many things to do so little time and money to do them.
I have knocked some items off the list:
1) Visit Fenway/Wrigley Field
2) Go to the College World Series (although going and seeing UNC win would be perfection)
3) Play basketball on a NBA court (sure I was 12, but I got to shake Charles Barkley's hand)
4) Visit Notre Dame
5) See the Oakland A's play in Oakland (I've also seen them play at Washington, Baltimore, Philadelphia, Chicago (both White Sox and Cubs) and Pittsburgh).
I would enjoy any feedback and any of my reader's bucket list items. Maybe it'll jog my ever crumbling mind on things I have forgotten.
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