NFL Crystal Ball 2015

The only question that should be on your mind is: 'Can he do it for a third straight season?'

Let's look back at my Super Bowl prediction from two years ago... HERE

And then for good measure, last year... HERE

Two years in a row I picked the correct teams in the upcoming Super Bowl and two years in a row I picked the wrong outcome.

I made my all too early Super Bowl prediction again at the end of last year and it was Green Bay over Indianapolis, but that was before Frank Gore was brought to Indy and before Jordy Nelson tore his ACL for the Packers. So much has changed so I went back to my XBOX this past weekend and played every single NFL game to come up with another practically perfect prediction.

The one part about my predictions that never come true is the individual performers. My breakouts become busts and my busts challenge for MVPs. No worries, I'm a results oriented person and nobody can take away my playoff predictions from a year ago (especially the AFC bracket).

Here are your 2015 break out candidates:

QB - Teddy Bridgewater - probably because I follow way too many people from the Minnesota area on Twitter for someone who lives in Virginia, but I'm on board with everything Teddy and the Vikings this year. AP is back, Kyle Rudolph will be healthy and the wide receivers can't be as awful as they were last season as a group. The playbook will open up and Bridgewater will flourish. 27 TD passes and 3 more on the ground for Teddy.

RB - Isaiah Crowell - Everyone and their mother is picking Duke Johnson to be the Browns running back to own in fantasy football, but not me. Sure he will get his touches, but Crowell gets the first shot and with a healthy Browns offensive line, it'll be his breakout season, not Johnson. 10 rushing touchdowns for him on the season.

WR - I'm not going to chicken out here, but it seems like everyone is picking from the group of Jordan Matthews, Davante Adams, John Brown and DeVante Parker. Who is left to choose? Do I go other obvious rookies like Amari Cooper, Nelson Agholor or Devin Funchess? How about vets in new places like Jeremy Maclin or Andre Johnson? No I'm going with Allen Robinson of your favorite team that you forget is in the NFL, the Jacksonville Jaguars. As I explained to a fellow fantasy drafter, he is the number one WR in Jacksonville and not Allen Hurns. 1100 yards and 8 touchdowns for the true Allen.

Here are your 2015 bust candidates:

QB - Russell Wilson - Yeah he got Jimmy Graham and yeah he can run like the wind, but cracks are forming for the Seahawks. The offensive line is in shambles, Wilson has suffered a concussion and thinks he can fix it with water and the team will still lean on Marshawn Lynch. This year Wilson misses 2 games and struggles at other times as he doesn't live up to his high fantasy rating. 19 total touchdowns.

RB - So many choices: DeMarco Murray who is bound to injure himself after his 9000 touches last season? LeSean McCoy who is already injured and on the Bills? Alfred Morris who everyone assumes will be relegated to a backup role my Week 6 in Washington? AP who missed a full year and passed 30 years of age? Matt Forte who will catch about half the passes as he did last year with a new offensive coordinator? Justin Forsett who could be a one year wonder when we look back? More rookie busts like previous seasons with Melvin Gordon and T.J. Yeldon? Well I'm going off the board with Mark Ingram. I actually think the Saints will surprise, but it will have to be an entire team effort. The Saints just do not lean on a single running back for a whole season. He fails to top 1000 yards and scores just 6 times.

WR - Alshon Jeffrey - As go the Bears horrible season goes the production level of the already injured Jeffrey. He is fully elevated to the #1 WR in Chicago as Brandon Marshall has left for New York so he gets all the attention from defenses and he still has Jay Cutler throwing to him (at least until Cutler is benched in Week 7 as the season becomes lost).

MVP - Andrew Luck narrowly edges out a pissed off Tom Brady

Here are your future 2015 NFL Standings:

NFC EAST

Philadelphia Eagles 11-5
Dallas Cowboys 10-6New York Giants 8-8
Washington Redskins 6-10 

NFC NORTH

Green Bay Packers 11-5
Detroit Lions 10-6
Minnesota Vikings 9-7
Chicago Bears 4-12

NFC SOUTH

New Orleans Saints 12-4 
Atlanta Falcons 8-8 
Carolina Panthers 5-11
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4-12

NFC WEST

Arizona Cardinals 11-5
Seattle Seahawks 9-7
St. Louis Rams 4-12
San Francisco 49ers 4-12

AFC EAST

New England Patriots 13-3
Miami Dolphins 9-7
Buffalo Bills 7-9
New York Jets 3-13

AFC NORTH

Baltimore Ravens 10-6
Cincinnati Bengals 10-6
Pittsburgh Steelers 10-6
Cleveland Browns 6-10

AFC SOUTH

Indianapolis Colts 13-3 
Houston Texans 8-8
Jacksonville Jaguars 4-12
Tennessee Titans 3-13

AFC WEST

Denver Broncos 12-4
Kansas City Chiefs 10-6
San Diego Chargers 7-9
Oakland Raiders 6-10

Playoffs:

NFC

1. New Orleans 12-4
2. Green Bay 11-5
3. Philadelphia 11-5
4. Arizona 11-5
5. Dallas 10-6
6. Detroit 10-6

Wild Card Round:

Arizona over Dallas
Philadelphia over Detroit

Divisional Round:

Arizona over New Orleans
Green Bay over Philadelphia

NFC Championship:

Green Bay over Arizona

AFC

1. Indianapolis 13-3
2. New England 13-3
3. Denver 12-4
4. Baltimore 10-6
5. Kansas City 10-6
6. Cincinnati 10-6

Wild Card Round:

Kansas City over Baltimore
Denver over Cincinnati

Divisional Round:

Indianapolis over Kansas City
New England over Denver

AFC Championship:

Indianapolis over New England

Super Bowl:

Green Bay over Indianapolis 27-24 - Aaron Rodgers Super Bowl MVP 

NFL Recap

I was this close again!!! After predicting a Denver-Seattle Super Bowl last year I figured there was no chance I'd ever get that close again. I went with Seattle to defeat New England with my all too early prediction for this season and lo and behold I hit the nail on the head again! With 15 minutes to play Seattle held a 24-14 lead and my predicted score of 27-16 looked pretty good. But as Geico has always said, a lot can change in just 15 minutes. New England roared back and took a late lead, but Seattle drove right back down the field and with less than a minute to play was one yard away from a back to back championship and turning me into a fatter, balder version of Nostradamus. One run by Marshawn Lynch and I was money! But no. Pete Carroll called for a pass, it was intercepted and Brady and Belichick cemented themselves as the greatest quarterback/coach duo in the history of the NFL. Kudos to them on a wonderful 4th quarter comeback that will forever be overshadowed by that final play. Do they have it in them to get back to a seventh Super Bowl before Brady hangs them up? Maybe, but you'll have to scroll down to see if I have picked them to repeat. As for the Seahawks, their window of having a cheap Russell Wilson is closed, Marshawn Lynch is a free agent and pissed so this might just be the end for their mini run. They will still be a heavy favorite to compete for a Super Bowl, but I believe it'll take at least a year or two to regroup after this debacle.

So lets look back at my predictions from my 4th annual NFL Crystal Ball and see just how horrid they were.

Breakout Candidates

Jay Cutler: Tied for the league lead in interceptions and was benched for the final game of the regular season. On a brighter note, was the starting quarterback on my fantasy football team that went 10-3 in the regular season (DeMarco Murray, Arian Foster and Jordy Nelson may have been on it too).

Andre Ellington: Played a lot more, but got injured and missed the final quarter of the season. Didn't live up to the hype, but was serviceable.

Joique Bell: More rushing, less receiving and the same total touchdowns from a year before. Maybe next year he puts it all together. Close, but no cigar.

Terrance Williams: Fewer targets, receptions and receiving yards than his rookie year, but scored 3 more touchdowns. He has all the makings of a star, but will have to settle for second fiddle with Dez in Big D.

Cordarrelle Patterson/Kyle Rudolph: I don't even know where to start with this debacle of a duo. Whether it was injury or lack of playing time or both, neither did anything of note while rookie quarterback Teddy Bridgewater was showing glimpses of stardom.

Busts

Cam Newton: After a slow start, Cam looked more and more like the steady Cam by mid-season even overcoming a car accident and some broken ribs. Another swing and a miss.

Frank Gore: My annual prediction of his demise didn't exactly come true. Sure he is showing signs of wear and tear, but he still churned out 1100 yards rushing and 5 total touchdowns while starting all 16 games.

Pierre Garcon/DeSean Jackson: One yes, one no. I predicted 120 total catches and 2000 total yards: they went for 124 total catches and 1928 total yards. DeSean did most of the work of the pair, but this might have been my best prediction of the bunch.

As for MVP: I picked two quarterbacks and missed on both. Aaron Rodgers won (should've been J.J. Watt) while Drew Brees and Peyton Manning were great and awful at times.

Standings and Predicted Records (actual records in parenthesis) 

NFC EAST

Philadelphia Eagles 11-5 (10-6)
Dallas Cowboys 8-8 (12-4)
Washington Redskins 6-10 (4-12)
New York Giants 6-10 (6-10)

NFC NORTH

Green Bay Packers 13-3 (12-4)
Chicago Bears 11-5 (5-11)
Detroit Lions 9-7 (11-5)
Minnesota Vikings 6-10 (7-9)

NFC SOUTH

New Orleans Saints 12-4 (7-9)
Atlanta Falcons 8-8 (6-10)
Carolina Panthers 7-9 (7-8-1)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5-11 (2-14)

NFC WEST

Seattle Seahawks 13-3 (12-4)
Arizona Cardinals 9-7 (11-5)
San Francisco 49ers 8-8 (8-8)
St. Louis Rams 7-9 (6-10)

AFC EAST

New England Patriots 13-3 (12-4)
New York Jets 6-10 (4-12)
Miami Dolphins 3-13 (8-8)
Buffalo Bills 3-13 (9-7)

AFC NORTH

Baltimore Ravens 11-5 (10-6)
Pittsburgh Steelers 9-7 (11-5)
Cincinnati Bengals 9-7 (10-5-1)
Cleveland Browns 2-14 (7-9)

AFC SOUTH

Indianapolis Colts 13-3 (11-5)
Tennessee Titans 6-10 (2-14)
Houston Texans 5-11 (9-7)
Jacksonville Jaguars 3-13 (3-13)

AFC WEST

Denver Broncos 13-3 (12-4)
Kansas City Chiefs 9-7 (9-7)
San Diego Chargers 7-9 (9-7)
Oakland Raiders 5-11 (3-13)


I went 5/8 in predicting division winners, but missed an AFC division winner for the first time in three years as the Ravens came up short to Pittsburgh before beating them in the playoffs.

Biggest misses were Chicago and Buffalo (six games off) New Orleans, Miami and Cleveland (5 games off)

But just when I was looking like a fool...along came the playoffs:

I had Seattle beating Green Bay in the NFC Championship game so that was good (even though Chicago, Philadelphia and New Orleans made me look silly).

In the AFC...ah near perfection. I had every single winner correct and outside of picking Kansas City over Cincinnati for the #6 seed went perfect!!! Baltimore over Pittsburgh: YES New England over Baltimore: YES Indianapolis over Denver: YES New England over Indianapolis: YES 

Can't do much better than that.

As for my all too early prediction for Super Bowl 50 where I am looking for three consecutive February bulls-eyes (Denver/Seattle, New England/Seattle) I am going: Green Bay to outscore Indianapolis and return the Lombardi Trophy to where it belongs for the leagues' 50th anniversary of the big game. Each team was a game away, but this will mark a changing of the guard in the AFC and Seattle might finally have to let some of their core walk away after two straight Super Bowl appearances.  

NFL Crystal Ball 2014

I think back to just how close I was last year. No not that Denver over Atlanta prediction I made here but the Denver over Seattle prediction I made six month earlier, but chickened out because ESPN picked the exact same thing right before I posted my predictions. Sure Denver laid a big, fat, ugly egg in front of a couple million people, but they are the odds on favorite to get back there from the AFC again this season. As for the defending champions up in Seattle, they are expected to contend again, but their path should be a bit more difficult in the more rugged NFC. Picking Seattle to win again this season would be foolish of me, though because the last 8 Super Bowl champs have failed to win a single playoff game (I'm pretty sure I heard that one from Peter King first).

Now for the reason why Seattle can win this season. The New England Patriots did win back to back Super Bowls in 2004-05 as did the Cowboys in the 1990's, the 49ers in the 80's (2nd one being won in January '90 but go along with my logic), the Dolphins/Steelers did the feat in the 70's and the Packers started it all in the '60's with back to back victories. No matter the era we have seen a back to back champion in each decade and we almost half way through the 2010's. Seattle was built to win more than one Super Bowl so why not this season?

Before I get to my predictions, let me regale you with my spot on predictions as to who will be breakout stars and fabulous flops this upcoming season:

Break out candidates: Jay Cutler - The biggest thing that has held Jay Cutler back (outside of Mike Martz' LOOK OUT offensive scheme) has been Jay Cutler. This year he'll have two top 10 caliber WRs to throw to and an elite RB to dump the ball off to. The Bears defense isn't that good and in the NFC North it'll take 30+ points per game to win each week. All the makings of a great season for the enigmatic one in the Windy City. Andre Ellington - You're either a believer or not when it comes to Ellington. He showed plenty of flashes last season while splitting reps and this year the position is all his in Arizona. Whether he can hold up for 20+ touches a game is the biggest question mark. I'm on board. Joique Bell - So what if Reggie Bush is the de facto starter in Detroit. The Lions know the Bell will still be an integral part of their offense and as soon as Bush breaks down he'll get rolling. Terrance Williams - Speaking of good offenses with bad defenses, the Dallas Cowboys will be the poster-Boys in the NFL. With Miles Austin officially out of the picture in Big D and Jason Witten another year older and Dez Bryant attracting all the attention on one side of the field, Williams should be open often. Cordarrelle Patterson/Kyle Rudolph - The two most talked about breakout candidates reside in Minnesota. Whether it is Matt Cassel or rookie Teddy Bridgewater pitching the pigskin around, the Vikings have the chance to be an elite offense. Not only do they have Adrian Peterson in the backfield, but they have Norv Turner on the sidelines. Norv is a horrible head coach, but a wonderful offensive coordinator. He squeezes the most juice out of every fantasy orange he coaches. He will make sure that Patterson and Rudolph get their touches.

Busts - Cam Newton - Where to start? Coming off surgery? Yes. An inexperienced receiving corps? Yes. An aging backfield that garners little respect? Yes. I'm not banking on his rushing TDs suddenly exploding when he's not at his healthiest. In his 3 seasons his rushing TD totals have gone 14, 8 and 6. That's the wrong direction. Frank Gore - Everything is pointing to a disastrous season in San Francisco. Even their new stadium is having issues staying healthy. The 49ers defense is a mess and Jim Harbaugh is a ticking time bomb. Frank Gore served his purpose for the 49ers, but this is the year they move on. Either by injury or ineffectiveness, Gore doesn't start more than 7 games this season. Pierre Garcon/DeSean Jackson - If the Redskins learned anything this preseason it's that RGIII is not ready to stand in the pocket and deliver 30+ passes a game. Washington will be better on defense meaning they can run the ball and have a controlled passing game with TE Jordan Reed being the focal point and the WRs being more of a decoy. In 2013 the two combined for 195 catches and nearly 2700 yards (DeSean was on the Eagles) and in 2014 they'll combine for 120 catches and 2000 yards. Temper the expectations.

Regular Season MVP: Drew Brees edging out Peyton Manning

Here are your 2014 NFL Standings:

NFC EAST

Philadelphia Eagles 11-5
Dallas Cowboys 8-8
Washington Redskins 6-10
New York Giants 6-10

NFC NORTH

Green Bay Packers 13-3
Chicago Bears 11-5
Detroit Lions 9-7
Minnesota Vikings 6-10

NFC SOUTH

New Orleans Saints 12-4
Atlanta Falcons 8-8
Carolina Panthers 7-9
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5-11

NFC WEST

Seattle Seahawks 13-3
Arizona Cardinals 9-7
San Francisco 49ers 8-8
St. Louis Rams 7-9

AFC EAST

New England Patriots 13-3
New York Jets 6-10
Miami Dolphins 3-13
Buffalo Bills 3-13

AFC NORTH

Baltimore Ravens 11-5
Pittsburgh Steelers 9-7
Cincinnati Bengals 9-7
Cleveland Browns 2-14

AFC SOUTH

Indianapolis Colts 13-3
Tennessee Titans 6-10
Houston Texans 5-11
Jacksonville Jaguars 3-13

AFC WEST

Denver Broncos 13-3
Kansas City Chiefs 9-7
San Diego Chargers 7-9
Oakland Raiders 5-11

Playoffs:

NFC

1. Seattle
2. Green Bay
3. New Orleans
4. Philadelphia
5. Chicago
6. Detroit

Wild Card Round:

New Orleans over Detroit
Chicago over Philadelphia

Divisional Round:

Seattle over Chicago
Green Bay over New Orleans

NFC Championship:

Seattle over Green Bay

AFC

1. New England
2. Denver
3. Indianapolis
4. Baltimore
5. Pittsburgh
6. Kansas City

Wild Card Round:

Indianapolis over Kansas City
Baltimore over Pittsburgh

Divisional Round:

New England over Baltimore
Indianapolis over Denver

AFC Championship:

New England over Indianapolis

Super Bowl:

Seattle over New England 27-16 as Russel Wilson wins the Super Bowl MVP.