NFL Crystal Ball 2014

I think back to just how close I was last year. No not that Denver over Atlanta prediction I made here but the Denver over Seattle prediction I made six month earlier, but chickened out because ESPN picked the exact same thing right before I posted my predictions. Sure Denver laid a big, fat, ugly egg in front of a couple million people, but they are the odds on favorite to get back there from the AFC again this season. As for the defending champions up in Seattle, they are expected to contend again, but their path should be a bit more difficult in the more rugged NFC. Picking Seattle to win again this season would be foolish of me, though because the last 8 Super Bowl champs have failed to win a single playoff game (I'm pretty sure I heard that one from Peter King first).

Now for the reason why Seattle can win this season. The New England Patriots did win back to back Super Bowls in 2004-05 as did the Cowboys in the 1990's, the 49ers in the 80's (2nd one being won in January '90 but go along with my logic), the Dolphins/Steelers did the feat in the 70's and the Packers started it all in the '60's with back to back victories. No matter the era we have seen a back to back champion in each decade and we almost half way through the 2010's. Seattle was built to win more than one Super Bowl so why not this season?

Before I get to my predictions, let me regale you with my spot on predictions as to who will be breakout stars and fabulous flops this upcoming season:

Break out candidates: Jay Cutler - The biggest thing that has held Jay Cutler back (outside of Mike Martz' LOOK OUT offensive scheme) has been Jay Cutler. This year he'll have two top 10 caliber WRs to throw to and an elite RB to dump the ball off to. The Bears defense isn't that good and in the NFC North it'll take 30+ points per game to win each week. All the makings of a great season for the enigmatic one in the Windy City. Andre Ellington - You're either a believer or not when it comes to Ellington. He showed plenty of flashes last season while splitting reps and this year the position is all his in Arizona. Whether he can hold up for 20+ touches a game is the biggest question mark. I'm on board. Joique Bell - So what if Reggie Bush is the de facto starter in Detroit. The Lions know the Bell will still be an integral part of their offense and as soon as Bush breaks down he'll get rolling. Terrance Williams - Speaking of good offenses with bad defenses, the Dallas Cowboys will be the poster-Boys in the NFL. With Miles Austin officially out of the picture in Big D and Jason Witten another year older and Dez Bryant attracting all the attention on one side of the field, Williams should be open often. Cordarrelle Patterson/Kyle Rudolph - The two most talked about breakout candidates reside in Minnesota. Whether it is Matt Cassel or rookie Teddy Bridgewater pitching the pigskin around, the Vikings have the chance to be an elite offense. Not only do they have Adrian Peterson in the backfield, but they have Norv Turner on the sidelines. Norv is a horrible head coach, but a wonderful offensive coordinator. He squeezes the most juice out of every fantasy orange he coaches. He will make sure that Patterson and Rudolph get their touches.

Busts - Cam Newton - Where to start? Coming off surgery? Yes. An inexperienced receiving corps? Yes. An aging backfield that garners little respect? Yes. I'm not banking on his rushing TDs suddenly exploding when he's not at his healthiest. In his 3 seasons his rushing TD totals have gone 14, 8 and 6. That's the wrong direction. Frank Gore - Everything is pointing to a disastrous season in San Francisco. Even their new stadium is having issues staying healthy. The 49ers defense is a mess and Jim Harbaugh is a ticking time bomb. Frank Gore served his purpose for the 49ers, but this is the year they move on. Either by injury or ineffectiveness, Gore doesn't start more than 7 games this season. Pierre Garcon/DeSean Jackson - If the Redskins learned anything this preseason it's that RGIII is not ready to stand in the pocket and deliver 30+ passes a game. Washington will be better on defense meaning they can run the ball and have a controlled passing game with TE Jordan Reed being the focal point and the WRs being more of a decoy. In 2013 the two combined for 195 catches and nearly 2700 yards (DeSean was on the Eagles) and in 2014 they'll combine for 120 catches and 2000 yards. Temper the expectations.

Regular Season MVP: Drew Brees edging out Peyton Manning

Here are your 2014 NFL Standings:

NFC EAST

Philadelphia Eagles 11-5
Dallas Cowboys 8-8
Washington Redskins 6-10
New York Giants 6-10

NFC NORTH

Green Bay Packers 13-3
Chicago Bears 11-5
Detroit Lions 9-7
Minnesota Vikings 6-10

NFC SOUTH

New Orleans Saints 12-4
Atlanta Falcons 8-8
Carolina Panthers 7-9
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5-11

NFC WEST

Seattle Seahawks 13-3
Arizona Cardinals 9-7
San Francisco 49ers 8-8
St. Louis Rams 7-9

AFC EAST

New England Patriots 13-3
New York Jets 6-10
Miami Dolphins 3-13
Buffalo Bills 3-13

AFC NORTH

Baltimore Ravens 11-5
Pittsburgh Steelers 9-7
Cincinnati Bengals 9-7
Cleveland Browns 2-14

AFC SOUTH

Indianapolis Colts 13-3
Tennessee Titans 6-10
Houston Texans 5-11
Jacksonville Jaguars 3-13

AFC WEST

Denver Broncos 13-3
Kansas City Chiefs 9-7
San Diego Chargers 7-9
Oakland Raiders 5-11

Playoffs:

NFC

1. Seattle
2. Green Bay
3. New Orleans
4. Philadelphia
5. Chicago
6. Detroit

Wild Card Round:

New Orleans over Detroit
Chicago over Philadelphia

Divisional Round:

Seattle over Chicago
Green Bay over New Orleans

NFC Championship:

Seattle over Green Bay

AFC

1. New England
2. Denver
3. Indianapolis
4. Baltimore
5. Pittsburgh
6. Kansas City

Wild Card Round:

Indianapolis over Kansas City
Baltimore over Pittsburgh

Divisional Round:

New England over Baltimore
Indianapolis over Denver

AFC Championship:

New England over Indianapolis

Super Bowl:

Seattle over New England 27-16 as Russel Wilson wins the Super Bowl MVP.
  

NFL Crystal Ball 2013

Third time is the charm, right?  After swinging and missing last year with a Houston over Atlanta Super Bowl, I'm back with another 72% guaranteed accurate prediction of the upcoming NFL season.  I'll predict every game, a bunch of break outs and flops, your future MVP and of course the winner of the first ever outdoor Super Bowl in a cold weather climate.

Seeing as my XBOX is currently covered in dust due to lack of use, I was resorted to breaking out my old Patriots vs Bears Super Bowl XX Electric Football Game and simulate the games while listening to that awful buzzing sound.  Basically, I started playing these games in early March and I have just now finished them.  Now although my all too early prediction from my post in February didn't come true exactly this go around, I was close.  I do know that the editors at ESPN the Magazine read my blog as their prediction of Denver over Seattle matched mine although they were 6 months late.  The only thing that kept Seattle from advancing in my mind during my simulation was the injury to Percy Harvin.  They'll drop a game that they shouldn't have forcing them to play on the road in the playoffs.

Here are some predictions for the season:

Break out candidates - T.Y. Hilton who finally emerges as the #1 receiver in Indianapolis over personal favorite Reggie Wayne.  Daryl Richardson who will either be the next Alfred Morris or Donald Brown making me look smart or costing me two fantasy leagues.  Ben Tate who takes over as the primary back in Houston in the 2nd half due to fatigue/injury concerns with Arian Foster.  Dwayne Bowe has been waiting for an offense like the one Andy Reid will compose.  He becomes a Pro Bowl starter if there is a Pro Bowl anymore.

Busts - C.J. Spiller becomes the latest top talent on a bad team to suffer an early season ending injury.  Vincent Jackson doesn't come close to his 2012 numbers mainly due to the lack of progression in the career of quarterback Josh Freeman who gets benched for a short spell mid-season.  DeSean Jackson wears out his welcome with the new Eagles coaching staff by sleeping through yet another team meeting and is relegated to 2nd string down the stretch.  Carson Palmer suffers behind the worst offensive line in the NFL for the second year in a row (Oakland was horrid in 2012) and doesn't make it through the season upright.

Regular season MVP: Colin Kaepernick narrowly edging out Peyton Manning

Here are you 2013 NFL Standings:

NFC EAST

Washington Redskins 10-6
New York Giants 9-7
Dallas Cowboys 8-8
Philadelphia Eagles 7-9

NFC NORTH

Detroit Lions 11-5
Green Bay Packers 10-6
Chicago Bears 7-9
Minnesota Vikings 5-11

NFC SOUTH

Atlanta Falcons 12-4
New Orleans Saints 11-5
Carolina Panthers 7-9
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5-11

NFC WEST

San Francisco 49ers 12-4
Seattle Seahawks 11-5
St. Louis Rams 9-7
Arizona Cardinals 2-14

AFC EAST

New England Patriots 13-3
Miami Dolphins 6-10
New York Jets 3-13
Buffalo Bills 3-13

AFC NORTH

Cincinnati Bengals 11-5
Pittsburgh Steelers 9-7
Baltimore Ravens 8-8
Cleveland Browns 8-8

AFC SOUTH

Indianapolis Colts 13-3
Houston Texans 11-5
Tennessee Titans 5-11
Jacksonville Jaguars 4-12

AFC WEST

Denver Broncos 12-4
Kansas City Chiefs 10-6
Oakland Raiders 3-13
San Diego Chargers 2-14

Playoffs:

NFC

1. San Francisco
2. Atlanta
3. Detroit
4. Washington
5. New Orleans
6. Seattle

Wild Card Round:

Seattle over Detroit
Washington over New Orleans

Divisional Round:

San Francisco over Seattle
Atlanta over Washington

NFC Championship:

Atlanta over San Francisco

AFC

1. New England
2. Indianapolis
3. Denver
4. Cincinnati
5. Houston
6. Kansas City

Wild Card Round:

Denver over Kansas City
Houston over Cincinnati

Divisional Round:

New England over Houston
Denver over Indianapolis

AFC Championship:

Denver over New England

Super Bowl:

Denver over Atlanta 27-20; Peyton Manning MVP 24-33 285 yards 2 TD's, 0 INT's and he retires on top.