The only question that should be on your mind is: 'Can he do it for a third straight season?'
Let's look back at my Super Bowl prediction from two years ago... HERE
And then for good measure, last year... HERE
Two years in a row I picked the correct teams in the upcoming Super Bowl and two years in a row I picked the wrong outcome.
I made my all too early Super Bowl prediction again at the end of last year and it was Green Bay over Indianapolis, but that was before Frank Gore was brought to Indy and before Jordy Nelson tore his ACL for the Packers. So much has changed so I went back to my XBOX this past weekend and played every single NFL game to come up with another practically perfect prediction.
The one part about my predictions that never come true is the individual performers. My breakouts become busts and my busts challenge for MVPs. No worries, I'm a results oriented person and nobody can take away my playoff predictions from a year ago (especially the AFC bracket).
Here are your 2015 break out candidates:
QB - Teddy Bridgewater - probably because I follow way too many people from the Minnesota area on Twitter for someone who lives in Virginia, but I'm on board with everything Teddy and the Vikings this year. AP is back, Kyle Rudolph will be healthy and the wide receivers can't be as awful as they were last season as a group. The playbook will open up and Bridgewater will flourish. 27 TD passes and 3 more on the ground for Teddy.
RB - Isaiah Crowell - Everyone and their mother is picking Duke Johnson to be the Browns running back to own in fantasy football, but not me. Sure he will get his touches, but Crowell gets the first shot and with a healthy Browns offensive line, it'll be his breakout season, not Johnson. 10 rushing touchdowns for him on the season.
WR - I'm not going to chicken out here, but it seems like everyone is picking from the group of Jordan Matthews, Davante Adams, John Brown and DeVante Parker. Who is left to choose? Do I go other obvious rookies like Amari Cooper, Nelson Agholor or Devin Funchess? How about vets in new places like Jeremy Maclin or Andre Johnson? No I'm going with Allen Robinson of your favorite team that you forget is in the NFL, the Jacksonville Jaguars. As I explained to a fellow fantasy drafter, he is the number one WR in Jacksonville and not Allen Hurns. 1100 yards and 8 touchdowns for the true Allen.
Here are your 2015 bust candidates:
QB - Russell Wilson - Yeah he got Jimmy Graham and yeah he can run like the wind, but cracks are forming for the Seahawks. The offensive line is in shambles, Wilson has suffered a concussion and thinks he can fix it with water and the team will still lean on Marshawn Lynch. This year Wilson misses 2 games and struggles at other times as he doesn't live up to his high fantasy rating. 19 total touchdowns.
RB - So many choices: DeMarco Murray who is bound to injure himself after his 9000 touches last season? LeSean McCoy who is already injured and on the Bills? Alfred Morris who everyone assumes will be relegated to a backup role my Week 6 in Washington? AP who missed a full year and passed 30 years of age? Matt Forte who will catch about half the passes as he did last year with a new offensive coordinator? Justin Forsett who could be a one year wonder when we look back? More rookie busts like previous seasons with Melvin Gordon and T.J. Yeldon? Well I'm going off the board with Mark Ingram. I actually think the Saints will surprise, but it will have to be an entire team effort. The Saints just do not lean on a single running back for a whole season. He fails to top 1000 yards and scores just 6 times.
WR - Alshon Jeffrey - As go the Bears horrible season goes the production level of the already injured Jeffrey. He is fully elevated to the #1 WR in Chicago as Brandon Marshall has left for New York so he gets all the attention from defenses and he still has Jay Cutler throwing to him (at least until Cutler is benched in Week 7 as the season becomes lost).
MVP - Andrew Luck narrowly edges out a pissed off Tom Brady
Here are your future 2015 NFL Standings:
NFC EAST
Philadelphia Eagles 11-5
Dallas Cowboys 10-6New York Giants 8-8
Washington Redskins 6-10
NFC NORTH
Green Bay Packers 11-5
Detroit Lions 10-6
Minnesota Vikings 9-7
Chicago Bears 4-12
NFC SOUTH
New Orleans Saints 12-4
Atlanta Falcons 8-8
Carolina Panthers 5-11
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4-12
NFC WEST
Arizona Cardinals 11-5
Seattle Seahawks 9-7
St. Louis Rams 4-12
San Francisco 49ers 4-12
AFC EAST
New England Patriots 13-3
Miami Dolphins 9-7
Buffalo Bills 7-9
New York Jets 3-13
AFC NORTH
Baltimore Ravens 10-6
Cincinnati Bengals 10-6
Pittsburgh Steelers 10-6
Cleveland Browns 6-10
AFC SOUTH
Indianapolis Colts 13-3
Houston Texans 8-8
Jacksonville Jaguars 4-12
Tennessee Titans 3-13
AFC WEST
Denver Broncos 12-4
Kansas City Chiefs 10-6
San Diego Chargers 7-9
Oakland Raiders 6-10
Playoffs:
NFC
1. New Orleans 12-4
2. Green Bay 11-5
3. Philadelphia 11-5
4. Arizona 11-5
5. Dallas 10-6
6. Detroit 10-6
Wild Card Round:
Arizona over Dallas
Philadelphia over Detroit
Divisional Round:
Arizona over New Orleans
Green Bay over Philadelphia
NFC Championship:
Green Bay over Arizona
AFC
1. Indianapolis 13-3
2. New England 13-3
3. Denver 12-4
4. Baltimore 10-6
5. Kansas City 10-6
6. Cincinnati 10-6
Wild Card Round:
Kansas City over Baltimore
Denver over Cincinnati
Divisional Round:
Indianapolis over Kansas City
New England over Denver
AFC Championship:
Indianapolis over New England
Super Bowl:
Green Bay over Indianapolis 27-24 - Aaron Rodgers Super Bowl MVP
Showing posts with label denver broncos. Show all posts
Showing posts with label denver broncos. Show all posts
Tuesday, September 8, 2015
Monday, September 1, 2014
NFL Crystal Ball 2014
I think back to just how close I was last year. No not that Denver over Atlanta prediction I made here but the Denver over Seattle prediction I made six month earlier, but chickened out because ESPN picked the exact same thing right before I posted my predictions. Sure Denver laid a big, fat, ugly egg in front of a couple million people, but they are the odds on favorite to get back there from the AFC again this season. As for the defending champions up in Seattle, they are expected to contend again, but their path should be a bit more difficult in the more rugged NFC. Picking Seattle to win again this season would be foolish of me, though because the last 8 Super Bowl champs have failed to win a single playoff game (I'm pretty sure I heard that one from Peter King first).
Now for the reason why Seattle can win this season. The New England Patriots did win back to back Super Bowls in 2004-05 as did the Cowboys in the 1990's, the 49ers in the 80's (2nd one being won in January '90 but go along with my logic), the Dolphins/Steelers did the feat in the 70's and the Packers started it all in the '60's with back to back victories. No matter the era we have seen a back to back champion in each decade and we almost half way through the 2010's. Seattle was built to win more than one Super Bowl so why not this season?
Before I get to my predictions, let me regale you with my spot on predictions as to who will be breakout stars and fabulous flops this upcoming season:
Break out candidates: Jay Cutler - The biggest thing that has held Jay Cutler back (outside of Mike Martz' LOOK OUT offensive scheme) has been Jay Cutler. This year he'll have two top 10 caliber WRs to throw to and an elite RB to dump the ball off to. The Bears defense isn't that good and in the NFC North it'll take 30+ points per game to win each week. All the makings of a great season for the enigmatic one in the Windy City. Andre Ellington - You're either a believer or not when it comes to Ellington. He showed plenty of flashes last season while splitting reps and this year the position is all his in Arizona. Whether he can hold up for 20+ touches a game is the biggest question mark. I'm on board. Joique Bell - So what if Reggie Bush is the de facto starter in Detroit. The Lions know the Bell will still be an integral part of their offense and as soon as Bush breaks down he'll get rolling. Terrance Williams - Speaking of good offenses with bad defenses, the Dallas Cowboys will be the poster-Boys in the NFL. With Miles Austin officially out of the picture in Big D and Jason Witten another year older and Dez Bryant attracting all the attention on one side of the field, Williams should be open often. Cordarrelle Patterson/Kyle Rudolph - The two most talked about breakout candidates reside in Minnesota. Whether it is Matt Cassel or rookie Teddy Bridgewater pitching the pigskin around, the Vikings have the chance to be an elite offense. Not only do they have Adrian Peterson in the backfield, but they have Norv Turner on the sidelines. Norv is a horrible head coach, but a wonderful offensive coordinator. He squeezes the most juice out of every fantasy orange he coaches. He will make sure that Patterson and Rudolph get their touches.
Busts - Cam Newton - Where to start? Coming off surgery? Yes. An inexperienced receiving corps? Yes. An aging backfield that garners little respect? Yes. I'm not banking on his rushing TDs suddenly exploding when he's not at his healthiest. In his 3 seasons his rushing TD totals have gone 14, 8 and 6. That's the wrong direction. Frank Gore - Everything is pointing to a disastrous season in San Francisco. Even their new stadium is having issues staying healthy. The 49ers defense is a mess and Jim Harbaugh is a ticking time bomb. Frank Gore served his purpose for the 49ers, but this is the year they move on. Either by injury or ineffectiveness, Gore doesn't start more than 7 games this season. Pierre Garcon/DeSean Jackson - If the Redskins learned anything this preseason it's that RGIII is not ready to stand in the pocket and deliver 30+ passes a game. Washington will be better on defense meaning they can run the ball and have a controlled passing game with TE Jordan Reed being the focal point and the WRs being more of a decoy. In 2013 the two combined for 195 catches and nearly 2700 yards (DeSean was on the Eagles) and in 2014 they'll combine for 120 catches and 2000 yards. Temper the expectations.
Regular Season MVP: Drew Brees edging out Peyton Manning
Here are your 2014 NFL Standings:
NFC EAST
Philadelphia Eagles 11-5
Dallas Cowboys 8-8
Washington Redskins 6-10
New York Giants 6-10
NFC NORTH
Green Bay Packers 13-3
Chicago Bears 11-5
Detroit Lions 9-7
Minnesota Vikings 6-10
NFC SOUTH
New Orleans Saints 12-4
Atlanta Falcons 8-8
Carolina Panthers 7-9
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5-11
NFC WEST
Seattle Seahawks 13-3
Arizona Cardinals 9-7
San Francisco 49ers 8-8
St. Louis Rams 7-9
AFC EAST
New England Patriots 13-3
New York Jets 6-10
Miami Dolphins 3-13
Buffalo Bills 3-13
AFC NORTH
Baltimore Ravens 11-5
Pittsburgh Steelers 9-7
Cincinnati Bengals 9-7
Cleveland Browns 2-14
AFC SOUTH
Indianapolis Colts 13-3
Tennessee Titans 6-10
Houston Texans 5-11
Jacksonville Jaguars 3-13
AFC WEST
Denver Broncos 13-3
Kansas City Chiefs 9-7
San Diego Chargers 7-9
Oakland Raiders 5-11
Playoffs:
NFC
1. Seattle
2. Green Bay
3. New Orleans
4. Philadelphia
5. Chicago
6. Detroit
Wild Card Round:
New Orleans over Detroit
Chicago over Philadelphia
Divisional Round:
Seattle over Chicago
Green Bay over New Orleans
NFC Championship:
Seattle over Green Bay
AFC
1. New England
2. Denver
3. Indianapolis
4. Baltimore
5. Pittsburgh
6. Kansas City
Wild Card Round:
Indianapolis over Kansas City
Baltimore over Pittsburgh
Divisional Round:
New England over Baltimore
Indianapolis over Denver
AFC Championship:
New England over Indianapolis
Super Bowl:
Seattle over New England 27-16 as Russel Wilson wins the Super Bowl MVP.
Now for the reason why Seattle can win this season. The New England Patriots did win back to back Super Bowls in 2004-05 as did the Cowboys in the 1990's, the 49ers in the 80's (2nd one being won in January '90 but go along with my logic), the Dolphins/Steelers did the feat in the 70's and the Packers started it all in the '60's with back to back victories. No matter the era we have seen a back to back champion in each decade and we almost half way through the 2010's. Seattle was built to win more than one Super Bowl so why not this season?
Before I get to my predictions, let me regale you with my spot on predictions as to who will be breakout stars and fabulous flops this upcoming season:
Break out candidates: Jay Cutler - The biggest thing that has held Jay Cutler back (outside of Mike Martz' LOOK OUT offensive scheme) has been Jay Cutler. This year he'll have two top 10 caliber WRs to throw to and an elite RB to dump the ball off to. The Bears defense isn't that good and in the NFC North it'll take 30+ points per game to win each week. All the makings of a great season for the enigmatic one in the Windy City. Andre Ellington - You're either a believer or not when it comes to Ellington. He showed plenty of flashes last season while splitting reps and this year the position is all his in Arizona. Whether he can hold up for 20+ touches a game is the biggest question mark. I'm on board. Joique Bell - So what if Reggie Bush is the de facto starter in Detroit. The Lions know the Bell will still be an integral part of their offense and as soon as Bush breaks down he'll get rolling. Terrance Williams - Speaking of good offenses with bad defenses, the Dallas Cowboys will be the poster-Boys in the NFL. With Miles Austin officially out of the picture in Big D and Jason Witten another year older and Dez Bryant attracting all the attention on one side of the field, Williams should be open often. Cordarrelle Patterson/Kyle Rudolph - The two most talked about breakout candidates reside in Minnesota. Whether it is Matt Cassel or rookie Teddy Bridgewater pitching the pigskin around, the Vikings have the chance to be an elite offense. Not only do they have Adrian Peterson in the backfield, but they have Norv Turner on the sidelines. Norv is a horrible head coach, but a wonderful offensive coordinator. He squeezes the most juice out of every fantasy orange he coaches. He will make sure that Patterson and Rudolph get their touches.
Busts - Cam Newton - Where to start? Coming off surgery? Yes. An inexperienced receiving corps? Yes. An aging backfield that garners little respect? Yes. I'm not banking on his rushing TDs suddenly exploding when he's not at his healthiest. In his 3 seasons his rushing TD totals have gone 14, 8 and 6. That's the wrong direction. Frank Gore - Everything is pointing to a disastrous season in San Francisco. Even their new stadium is having issues staying healthy. The 49ers defense is a mess and Jim Harbaugh is a ticking time bomb. Frank Gore served his purpose for the 49ers, but this is the year they move on. Either by injury or ineffectiveness, Gore doesn't start more than 7 games this season. Pierre Garcon/DeSean Jackson - If the Redskins learned anything this preseason it's that RGIII is not ready to stand in the pocket and deliver 30+ passes a game. Washington will be better on defense meaning they can run the ball and have a controlled passing game with TE Jordan Reed being the focal point and the WRs being more of a decoy. In 2013 the two combined for 195 catches and nearly 2700 yards (DeSean was on the Eagles) and in 2014 they'll combine for 120 catches and 2000 yards. Temper the expectations.
Regular Season MVP: Drew Brees edging out Peyton Manning
Here are your 2014 NFL Standings:
NFC EAST
Philadelphia Eagles 11-5
Dallas Cowboys 8-8
Washington Redskins 6-10
New York Giants 6-10
NFC NORTH
Green Bay Packers 13-3
Chicago Bears 11-5
Detroit Lions 9-7
Minnesota Vikings 6-10
NFC SOUTH
New Orleans Saints 12-4
Atlanta Falcons 8-8
Carolina Panthers 7-9
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5-11
NFC WEST
Seattle Seahawks 13-3
Arizona Cardinals 9-7
San Francisco 49ers 8-8
St. Louis Rams 7-9
AFC EAST
New England Patriots 13-3
New York Jets 6-10
Miami Dolphins 3-13
Buffalo Bills 3-13
AFC NORTH
Baltimore Ravens 11-5
Pittsburgh Steelers 9-7
Cincinnati Bengals 9-7
Cleveland Browns 2-14
AFC SOUTH
Indianapolis Colts 13-3
Tennessee Titans 6-10
Houston Texans 5-11
Jacksonville Jaguars 3-13
AFC WEST
Denver Broncos 13-3
Kansas City Chiefs 9-7
San Diego Chargers 7-9
Oakland Raiders 5-11
Playoffs:
NFC
1. Seattle
2. Green Bay
3. New Orleans
4. Philadelphia
5. Chicago
6. Detroit
Wild Card Round:
New Orleans over Detroit
Chicago over Philadelphia
Divisional Round:
Seattle over Chicago
Green Bay over New Orleans
NFC Championship:
Seattle over Green Bay
AFC
1. New England
2. Denver
3. Indianapolis
4. Baltimore
5. Pittsburgh
6. Kansas City
Wild Card Round:
Indianapolis over Kansas City
Baltimore over Pittsburgh
Divisional Round:
New England over Baltimore
Indianapolis over Denver
AFC Championship:
New England over Indianapolis
Super Bowl:
Seattle over New England 27-16 as Russel Wilson wins the Super Bowl MVP.
Saturday, August 9, 2014
Tom Hanks and 2014 Fantasy Football
This is by far and away my most favorite blog post of each year. It combines
the three hobbies that I enjoy most in life: sports, movies and gambling. Each
year I choose one of my favorite actors in Hollywood (movies) and compare their
body of work to the upcoming NFL season (sports) and how it relates to Fantasy
Football (gambling). For an example, last season I chose John Cusack and I think I did okay. Some good calls (Jordan
Cameron doing well and the state of New York sucking) and some bad calls (Ryan
Williams breaking out and DeSean Jackson being a bust) which is the norm for predictions
before most starters step onto the field in preseason. As always I aim for 79%
accuracy and 3 solid laughs throughout the post.
This season I'm covering one of the most recognizable actors of my lifetime, Tom Hanks. The winner of two best actor Oscars, nominated in three different decades (and nearly a fourth this past year for Captain Phillips), Hanks has done almost everything in Hollywood. He started on television with the campy Bosom Buddies, then did screwball comedies in the 80s (Bachelor Party, The Money Pit), graduated to dramas and peaking with his awards in the 90s and then turned to blockbuster franchises (Toy Story, the Dan Brown novels) and finally producing and a little directing. If you asked 100 people what their favorite Tom Hanks movie was, you would probably get 15-20 different answers. If I had to rank my top 5 Tom Hanks movies they would be:
5) Big
4) Saving Private Ryan
3) A League of Their Own
2) Toy Story
1) Apollo 13 (yes I just watched this again this past weekend, I can't turn it off when it's on)
So let me get right to it and tell you everything you'll need to know about the upcoming Fantasy Football season.
Sleepless in Seattle
Just like last season when I started with the defending champion Ravens, I head to the great Pacific Northwest where the loyal fans of the Seahawks finally got their first Lombardi Trophy. Where do I start with this stacked team? Stud RB, Marshawn Lynch? Dynamic dual threat QB Russell Wilson? Big play potential WR Percy Harvin? How about the dominating Defense? Last season was nice, but they could be even better this season.
Let's go backwards with the defense which normally doesn't get spoken about in fantasy football articles. The Seahawks defense should be the first defense drafted and it will be a round or two before any other defense. They had six games where they gave up fewer than 10 points and were the best in the league in giving up yards to the opponent. How could they get better? They only scored four defensive TDs in 2013 and with their big play potential they could easily have 2-3 more this upcoming season. Percy Harvin is the great unknown. He was completely absent in 2013 until the Super Bowl when he had a kickoff return for a touchdown (see he's helping your Seahakws defense already!). With Golden Tate gone and Sidney Rice retired, it's all on his shoulders to make the passing game a threat. Drafting him will be all about value. His name and potential will increase his ADP while his injury risk will scare some people off. If he drops, he is a must pick, but don't go too crazy. That brings us to Russell Wilson who can be really, really good just as easy as he can be really, really quiet. The Seahawks play a run first style and then lean on their defense. Unless he gets his points early it usually winds up being a quiet day at the office. Hopefully with some of the losses on the defense the Seahawks on quite as dominant forcing Wilson to have to do a little bit more, thus raising his ceiling. Don't let the Super Bowl win fool you into reaching for him. He's a great #2 in a 10 team league and a fringe starter in anything bigger. As for Marshawn Lynch, all the signs of a first round bust are there. He's had a ton of mileage on his tires with 1,002 rushes over the last three seasons (including the playoffs). That's 334 per year for those of you who don't know how to operate a calculator. He has got to be tired (I'm tired just carrying my kid up to bed once a night). There has already been talk of more of a time share in Seattle this season with Christine Michael who is a must-handcuff for anyone willing to ride the rainbow one more season.
Big & Splash - Big Splash!
This is where I cover the rookie class...you know the guys who are looking to make a big splash onto the fantasy football scene. Some people call me a genius when they read these preview posts, others just point their finger at me and laugh like Nelson on The Simpsons. Anyways, this years crop of rookies will at least get more headlines than last years did, but whether they produce on the field worthy of a draft pick in your league is yet to be seen.
QBs: Blake Bortles, Johnny Manziel and Teddy Bridgewater - DO NOT DRAFT see that was easy.
Okay to be fair I'd pick any and all of them just in case in a keeper/dynasty league, but for a re-draft league only Manziel intrigues me as a backup. He will, of course, get 98% of all the rookie headlines this season whether he warrants them or not. Bortles and his fellow rookie WRs will have their moments, but not enough to worthy wasting a draft pick. They'll be waiver wire pickups sometime this season. I know I'm not alone in think that Teddy Bridgewater is in the best spot to succeed this season and for years ahead. He has AP behind him and Cordarrelle Patterson and Kyle Rudolph to throw to with Norv Turner calling the shots. If you told me he was going to start 16 games I'd be willing to put him in my sleeper picks as a QB1 in a 12+ team league. Yeah I have high hopes.
RBs: Bishop Sankey, Tre Mason, Jeremy Hill and Carlos Hyde (and even Andre Williams) - DRAFT 'EM ALL!!!
Already Sankey is being touted as ROY potential in Tennessee since CJbarely1K has finally been pushed away to New York. He should be the first rookie RB off your draft board, but there are a few behind him that, if given the right situation could easily surpass his numbers. If for any reason Zac Stacy falls victim to a sophomore slump, Tre Mason could step right in an perform quite nicely. The same goes for Jeremy Hill in Cincinnati as he sits behind personal favorite Gio Bernard. He might even get a good chunk of the touches if Gio can't prove to be an every down back (he'll be just fine, TYVM). Carlos Hyde and Andre Williams were afterthoughts just a week or two ago, but they have already moved up the depth charts due to injuries in San Francisco and New York (Giants).
Here's all you need to know about the rookie crop of running backs, find a spot on your roster for one at the end of the draft. Don't take a backup TE, K or D or God forbid a 3rd QB. Stack the back end of your roster with as many RBs as you can and hope they turn into gold.
WRs: Five of the first 28 and 8 of the first 45 in this draft were spent on WRs.
I'm not touching any of them save for Sammy Watkins as a WR4 at best. I just don't trust rookie WRs one bit. Last season Keenan Allen surprised everyone by being quite the stud, but remember he was the 8th WR draft in the 2013 draft. It's just too difficult to pick out a diamond from the rough. Plus, there are far too many good WRs compared to RBs in the NFL which is why loading up on rookie backs is far more advisable.
TEs: Eric Ebron - As Samuel L. Jackson once said 'Hold on to your butts!'
Note to self: Control your emotions Jason, don't give it away that you are going to try and draft (in every league you're in) the best offensive player to come out of UNC since...2013. I think Eric Ebron is destined for multiple Pro-Bowl seasons in the NFL. I may be typing with rose-colored glasses on as a fan of the Tar Heels, but it believe he's the real deal. He's in a great situation even though past Detroit TEs have disappeared even while Matt Stafford was throwing for 5,000 yards per season. Use him or lose him Matty.
The Money Pit
You remember this movie? Tom Hanks and Shelley Long keep pouring money into a house in the hopes of making it their dream home with disastrously funny results. I'm a Washington Redskins fan (this does not count as one of the laughs I was looking for Mr./Ms. Reader) and under Dan Snyder, the Redskins are like these characters when it comes to free agency. If you throw money at them, they will come. Well it doesn't always work out they way it was planned. In this section I'll look at a few 'old faces in new places' and determine just how big of a money pit they'll be.
QB: Michael Vick - Fun fact, In 2003 I drafted Michael Vick #1 overall, days before he broke his leg causing him to miss the first 11 games of the season. Good times. 11 years later he's just trying to be a starter on the Jets. Unless he's named opening day starter by the time you draft you can leave him to the dogs.
RBs: Chris Johnson - Hey look another new Jet. Not guaranteed of anything more than a timeshare, Johnson's stock should be pretty low and thus intriguing as a 'just in case' measure.
Knowshown Moreno - From the penthouse to the outhouse. Moreno heads from high flying Denver to Miami. Again he's walking into a possible timeshare with last years bust Lamar Miller. Moreno is certainly the favorite to emerge, but nothing more than a RB3 in most leagues.
Maurice Jones-Drew - After years of toiling away in the wasteland known as Jacksonville, MJD now gets to ride into the sunset of his NFL career in the wasteland that is Oakland. Now the Raiders actually made some decent moves to shore up their defense this year and thus should be a bit better overall. On the other side of the ball MJD gets paired with Run-DMC who together should be healthy for at least six games. The Oakland backfield will be a mess.
Ben Tate - He finally gets his chance to shine. Well that is if he doesn't lose the starting job to rookie Terrance West as I've already heard hints of through the grapevine (which is an actual grape vine in my back yard that I put my ear up to until the neighbors begin to snicker). If you believe in him, that's fine, but temper your expectations.
Rashad Jennings - He's already gaining traction as a breakout player possibility now that David Wilson has mercifully retired due to his neck injury. The Giants as a whole will be looking to rebound after a debacle of a season and if they can, Jennings may be at the forefront. If Eli Manning continues to crap the bed, Jennings may just be another option for your BYE weeks.
Toby Gerhart - Just like Ben Tate, Gerhart now gets his chance to be a starter after being stuck behind one of the best in the game. Jacksonville has a rookie QB and a very young WR core so they should struggle again to stay consistent on offense. Draft him with a cautious upside.
Donald Brown - He has burned me so many times and is now 3rd string on a team that will rotate RBs at will. Just how much will he play is the big question. If you get Ryan Mathews and have an extra spot to fill in the last round, you could do worse than Brown.
WRs: DeSean Jackson - Now the Redskins didn't back up the truck for Jackson which I'm happy about. Washington will deploy four smallish WRs and big Jordan Reed at TE. If RGIII can figure out how to be a better pocket passer or re-gain the elusiveness as a running threat, the passing game could be lights out in DC. Jackson won't be a PPR monster, but he'll get a few big plays. Solid WR2 option.
Steve Smith - In Carolina it was always about Steve Smith being the only receiving option. Now in Baltimore he'll be able to mix in with Torrey Smith, Dennis Pitta and the one who likes to beat on women. His numbers will be down, but he could still be productive in deeper leagues.
Eric Decker - More Jets! I'm staying away from Decker unless he plummets into the abyss during a draft. He is, by far, the biggest 'money pit' player out there IMO. See Jennings, Greg for an example of what to expect.
Golden Tate - When you draft him you must sing 'I've got the Golden Ticket, I've got the golden twinkle in my eye!' Detroit should be awesome again on offense with Megatron and Reggie Bush, but now with Ebron and Tate they could be near unstoppable. The only downside for me is he'll take away from the numbers that I know Ebron is capable of.
Emmanuel Sanders - He should be good for about 85% of an Eric Decker. That is plenty good enough to draft. He'll be the fourth option on a team that should have 40+ passing TDs. You do the math.
A League of Their Own
When it comes to studs, you won't find many sites who are willing to predict a down year. I will throw out the fact that I wrote about last year for LeagueSafe.com: A first round caliber running back from a team with a losing record will miss half the season or more. FACT.
Doug Martin was the causality in 2013 when Tampa went 4-12. The trend continued:
2012: Maurice Jones-Drew (10 games), Jacksonville goes 2-14; 2011: Jamaal Charles (14 games), Kansas City goes 7-9; 2010: DeAngelo Williams (10 games), Carolina goes 2-14; 2009: Clinton Portis (8 games), Washington goes 4-12. Bad things happen to good running backs on bad teams.
So who will be the victim in 2014??? My best bets are Arian Foster or DeMarco Murray. Book it. Dark horse candidate LeSean McCoy!!
Outside of that the biggest worry I'll have with studs is Peyton Manning. He controls the fate of so may top picks. Five of the top 45 picks on ESPN.com are Broncos and Emmanuel Sanders is at 82.
We've seen what happened to Green Bay without Aaron Rodgers and Dallas without Tony Romo in the past. I bring up Manning because just because he was the best player in the NFL last year, that doesn't erase his medical history.
The two safest picks IMO of the consensus first round are neither RBs nor QBs, but rather Calvin Johnson and Jimmy Graham. If you don't get AP, Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy or Matt Forte in the top four and are scared of Peyton Manning for any reason, draft one of those two at five and six. After the first seven picks, life gets a bit more complicated.
Saving Private Ryan
Last season the Atlanta Falcons fell and fell hard. Tony Gonzalez came back to play one final year because he thought Atlanta, with the addition of Steven Jackson, had the final piece in the Super Bowl puzzle. Well a funny thing happened on the way to the parade down Peachtree Street. Jackson got injured (shocker I know), Julio Jones got injured and Roddy White missed some time. All in all it was an unmitigated disaster for quarterback Matt Ryan, so will 2014 be any different?
Steven Jackson is a year older and Tony Gonzalez finally hung up his cleats.
That's not good.
Julio Jones and Roddy White are back and healthy which is good. If Atlanta can find a running game (probably from someone other than Jackson), they have a chance to put up decent to above average numbers. I don't think Atlanta has hopes of playing in a Super Bowl this season, but Ryan should better this season. I mean, it can't go much worse than it did last year, right?
There will be some good value in Roddy White and Matt Ryan when drafting. I'd even keep an eye on Devonta Freeman who could prove worthy of more than a late round flier.
You've Got Mail
It was recently published that approximately 2.3 MILLION people are still subscribing to AOL dial up services. You have GOT to be kidding me!?!?! Remember when AOL was awesome? I barely do. This is where I will point out that some RBs might have a name that you recognize, but deep down inside you know they're waaaaay past their prime. Time to upgrade your services people.
I've already discussed a few of this years crop who are just trying to hang on to their fledgling careers.
1) MJD
2) Steven Jackson
3) Chris Johnson
Here are a few others that I would avoid unless you just can't pass them up because they've dropped like a rock:
4) BenJarvus Green-Ellis - put a fork in him, he's done. The Bengals have two young and capable backs to turn to and Green-Ellis will be looking for a roster spot somewhere when injuries happen by September.
5) DeAngelo Williams - This has been a slow bleed, as he has managed to stay healthy, but his production has basically flat lined. His last three seasons his YPC has gone 5.4, 4.3, 4.2 as his carries have increase each of those seasons. His TDs have also gone 7, 5, 3 in those same three seasons. More touches with less production and even fewer scoring. Yikes.
6) Ray Rice - He's just 27, but he's had a lot of work in a short time. Tack on the fact that he'll be missing the first two games of the season and Bernard Pierce will be itching to rebound from his sophomore slump, he is ripe for failure. Too much crap going on in his life to focus on the game.
7) Frank Gore - Prove me wrong again Gore...do it. Will this finally be the year that the 49ers use their stockpile of young backs (those that aren't already injured)? I'm saying that it is. Paging Carlos Hyde, you are needed at the sleeper desk.
Band of Brothers
Okay, so this isn't a true movie, but it's an exquisite mini series. I just couldn't pass this one up. Also don't miss 'From the Earth to the Moon' and currently airing on CNN 'The Sixties'. Have you figured out what I will be discussing in this section?
Yup, everyone's favorite coaches to hate, Jim and John Harbaugh and their teams the San Francisco 49ers and the Baltimore Ravens. Just two years ago they were fighting it out for the Super Bowl, but both fell short last season. The Niners are in a better position IMO to get back to the promised land, but the Ravens have the advantage of playing in a watered down AFC.
I've already covered both Frank Gore and Ray Rice and how I think this will be a down year for both as they have both been just so good for so long for their respective teams.
At quarterback you have two guys in Colin Kaepernick and Joe Flacco who have signed big money extensions and are now expected to be elite for a long time. The key for Kaepernick is keeping Michael Crabtree on the field. When Crabtree plays, Colin produces big time fantasy stats. He should come cheap this year and provide great upside with a full year from Crabtree.
As for Flacco, oh Joe...he had more games with 2+ interceptions in 2013 (7) than he did 2+ touchdowns (6). That's not good. Of course the Ravens O-Line was in shambles which led to not being able to run the ball at all. Being forced to throw and to throw into traffic got him in a ton of trouble. Now with a healthy Dennis Pitta and the savvy veteran, Steve Smith, things should be better. How much is the key? You will draft him as a backup, but you could wind up using him if Baltimore gets hot.
Each team has a quality TE although Vernon Davis has at least proved himself, while we are all waiting for Dennis Pitta to join the elite members of the fantasy TE world. Davis scored 13 times last season, which was the second time he's done that in his career. The last time he did that he followed it up with 13 touchdowns TOTAL over the next two seasons. I have to believe that a full season from Crabtree will cut into his total scores, but he will still be a top 5 TE nonetheless. For Pitta, his owners would be thrilled with a 'Vernon Davis down year' type year with 600 yards receiving and 6 touchdowns. Lump him in with about half a dozen other TEs that you can get cheap and late and won't hurt you too much.
At WR between Torrey and Steve Smith, Michael Crabtree and ex-Raven Anquan Boldin you have four WRs all capable of big games and stretches of inconsistent fantasy numbers. If I had to put them in order of fantasy points I'd go: Crabtree, Torrey, Steve and Anquan. All worthy of a mid round pick and all worthy of starts and sits all season long.
Catch Me If You Can
In this movie, Tom Hanks runs around trying to catch a teenager who is kiting checks and emulating a pilot and doctor among other professions. In recent years, the NFL has seen a change of pace from plodding running games and low scoring offenses, to wide open, four WR sets and Tecmo Bowl style scores. There are a glutton of WRs who will be challenging defenses who are handcuffed by today's rules to catch them if they can. *Groan* goes the audience. Yeah you all saw that one coming.
In my opinion we are almost to the point where ALL leagues should require 3 WRs to start. In you average, run of the mill, 10 team league if you only played the top 20 scoring WRs of 2013 you wouldn't have used four receivers who posted 1,000+ yards receiving and three other receivers who scored 10 TDs!! Let's look at those names:
Michael Floyd, Brian Hartline, Harry Douglas, Kendall Wright, Wes Welker, Marvin Jones and Jerricho Cotchery. You could win some fantasy games with 3 or 4 of those receivers, no? None were in the Top 20 in standard scoring on ESPN last year.
Now if you stretched out the field and were forced to own someone between 36-40 we would get:
Eddie Royal, Rod Streater, Doug Baldwin, Greg Jennings and Terrance Williams (and yet big names like Steve Smith and Dwayne Bowe are still behind them!).
WR is deep enough right now that forcing owners to find that diamond in the rough makes it more fun rather than just running out Stud A and Stud C vs Stud B and Stud D. Yawn!
More roster spots everyone!!! Make BYE weeks, trading and waiver wire pickups mean something. It's just too easy if you don't push WR (and RB for that matter) past the top 30.
The Ladykillers
I must admit, I didn't enjoy this movie one bit. I saw it in the theaters and I would rank it in my Top 10 of worst movies I've paid money to see (also listed - and don't judge me - Freddy Got Fingered, To Die For, The Royal Tennebaums, Waterworld, The Truth About Cats and Dogs (date), Lady in the Water, Funny People, Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull and Star Wars Episode I).
But I'm not here to discuss bad movies, but I am going to point out my thoughts on the real 'lady killers' of the NFL, your starting QBs of the NFL. These are the guys who get the head cheerleader, star in all of the commercials and usually just look the best (face of the franchise for a reason). Even if you suck, yeah I'm looking at you Christian Ponder, you usually do okay in life.
Let's start at the top with Peyton Manning who may not be Tom Brady when it comes to wooing the ladies, but he is the face of the NFL when it comes to advertising. Between him, Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees you have three stud QBs and then the position becomes wide open.
This year I'd be willing to lump in Matt Stafford who I think will challenge for that #3 spot, but even if he falls short he should still produce huge numbers in Detroit. If you miss out on those four, fear not, there are 6-10 more QBs I think you can win a fantasy championship with:
(In no particular order)
Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, Tony Romo, RGIII, Colin Kaepernick, Jay Cutler, Andy Dalton, Russell Wilson, Nick Foles, Tom Brady, Matt Ryan and Phillip Rivers.
That's 16!! QBs who are all worthy of starting on any given Sunday. Sure there is some wide week-to-week variance of those final dozen, but if you get them late enough you should be able to make up the points by being stronger at RB/WR/TE than your opponent who drafted Peyton/Rodgers/Brees/Stafford in Rounds 1-3.
Here's my advice: draft a stud QB if you are stuck on picking between a RB you don't like or a WR you think you can get in the next round, but wait on QBs if you are happy with your RB/WR/TE picks in the first six rounds.
Angels & Demons
For my last film of the post I cover one of the movies that came from the Dan Brown book series where Tom Hanks is the lead character Robert Langdon. It's like the 'National Treasure' series with Nick Cage only with more religion and less world history. Either way I'm a sucker for all of these movies where it's basically good vs. evil and a treasure hunt.
As for how it relates to the NFL, when you draft your team it is all about maximizing your 'sleepers' AKA 'angels' and minimizing your 'busts' AKA 'demons'. Not too much of a stretch if I do say so myself!
Angels (Sleepers)
QBs: Jay Cutler - He has Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery and Matt Forte. He played in 10 full games in 2013. The numbers he put up in those games worked out to be a 4,100+ yard, 30 TD season. He is currently going 16th overall for QBs on ESPN. He was also on pace for 18 INTs so there is that. He has all the makings of a top 8 QB in 2014.
Andy Dalton - In his three years in the NFL, Andy Dalton has started all 48 games for the Cincinnati Bengals. Each year he has seen his Attempts, Yards, TDs, Yards/Attempt, Team Record and unfortunately his INTs increase. He signed a new deal and now the question is whether he has peaked or whether he has one (or more) levels to grow. If the Bengals can find a TE to emerge and get Gio the ball 70 times out of the backfield, he may just hit that next upper level. Look for 4,400 yards, 35 TDs and 18 INTs to get the Bengals into the playoffs for their fourth straight season. That's better than the 17th overall QB as he is going right now.
RBs: Carlos Hyde - I've already touched on Frank Gore stepping aside sometime this season due to rest/injury/ineffectiveness. One of these years I'm bound to be right.
Joique Bell - Do I think Reggie Bush can put together another season of 14+ games while carrying the ball over 200 times?? No, no I do not. I think the Lions are going to play thing a bit smarter and let Bell tote the rock much more on 1st and 2nd down and let Bush be the 3rd down, trailing late in the game back. Bell gets an extra 60 attempts and finishes around 900 yards and 10 TDs. Bush still catches 50 passes and has 6 total TDs, but Bell is the Lions back I want.
WRs: Terrance Williams - Oh thank heavens that Miles Austin is gone for good from Dallas. Maybe now they can find someone to lighten the coverage for Dez Bryant and Jason Witten on the opposite side of the field. He's got a 1,000 yard season ahead of him with 7 TDs as Dallas will need to score 30+ points a week to have a chance. Currently he's the 37th WR coming off the board on ESPN.
Riley Cooper - I stay in the NFC East for another WR who showed flashes last season although he was stuck behind other guys. Well DeSean Jackson is gone and the Eagles aren't about to stop their high paced, fun and gun style. Somebody has to pick up the slack as the deep threat option. With Darren Sproles working underneath, Cooper should find some openings over the top to the tune of double digits TDs.
TE - Ladarius Green - He has had time to learn from one of the best and now he takes the lead. He showed some promise in the middle of the season last year so I know he can do it. Antonio Gates didn't top 50 yards receiving over the final six weeks of the season as father time was catching up to him. Draft Green as a backup and watch him explode by Week 5.
Demons (Busts)
QBs: Cam Newton - I know all about his top 4 streak he has going as a fantasy quarterback. That ends with a bang this year. A diminishing running attack, the loss of his safety valve in Steve Smith and the off-season surgery all adds up to an ugly year. Outside of the top 15 for Newton.
Johnny Manziel - Being drafted ahead of Jay Cutler and Andy Dalton. I'm sorry, but I'm just not on board for fantasy greatness just yet. I love the enthusiasm, but I think there will be a learning curve than most all rookies go through. If he had Josh Gordon the whole season, maybe, just maybe I'd get fully on board.
RBs: Who haven't I named already? Gore, Reggie Bush, DeMarco Murray and Arian Foster are my big four.
Overall I think this will be a down year for RBs which makes hitting pay dirt all the more important. Which is why so many people are using their first two picks on a WR/QB combo and then just loading up on 4-5 middle tier RBs and hoping to get lucky.
WRs: Andre Johnson - Blame this on Ryan Fitzpatrick. That's all I have and that's all I need. His numbers come back to Earth this year.
Larry Fitzgerald - His value rebounded last season thanks in large part to the 10 TDs while not even hitting 1,000 yards receiving (for the second consecutive season). Third times the charm has he fails to hit even 900 yards receiving and only 5 TDs.
TE: Outside of Antonio Gates you ask?
Julius Thomas - When something is just too good to be true like last season was for Thomas, I get a weird feeling. After scoring 8 times in the first 7 weeks he found the end zone just 4 times over the last 9 weeks including two lost to injury. Everything won't be all butterflies and rainbows this season in Denver so temper your expectations.
So that's it for this season. If you have read this you are already 8% of the way to winning your league! Congrats and please make all checks of your winnings payable to Jason Wippich.
Good luck and have fun.
This season I'm covering one of the most recognizable actors of my lifetime, Tom Hanks. The winner of two best actor Oscars, nominated in three different decades (and nearly a fourth this past year for Captain Phillips), Hanks has done almost everything in Hollywood. He started on television with the campy Bosom Buddies, then did screwball comedies in the 80s (Bachelor Party, The Money Pit), graduated to dramas and peaking with his awards in the 90s and then turned to blockbuster franchises (Toy Story, the Dan Brown novels) and finally producing and a little directing. If you asked 100 people what their favorite Tom Hanks movie was, you would probably get 15-20 different answers. If I had to rank my top 5 Tom Hanks movies they would be:
5) Big
4) Saving Private Ryan
3) A League of Their Own
2) Toy Story
1) Apollo 13 (yes I just watched this again this past weekend, I can't turn it off when it's on)
So let me get right to it and tell you everything you'll need to know about the upcoming Fantasy Football season.
Sleepless in Seattle
Just like last season when I started with the defending champion Ravens, I head to the great Pacific Northwest where the loyal fans of the Seahawks finally got their first Lombardi Trophy. Where do I start with this stacked team? Stud RB, Marshawn Lynch? Dynamic dual threat QB Russell Wilson? Big play potential WR Percy Harvin? How about the dominating Defense? Last season was nice, but they could be even better this season.
Let's go backwards with the defense which normally doesn't get spoken about in fantasy football articles. The Seahawks defense should be the first defense drafted and it will be a round or two before any other defense. They had six games where they gave up fewer than 10 points and were the best in the league in giving up yards to the opponent. How could they get better? They only scored four defensive TDs in 2013 and with their big play potential they could easily have 2-3 more this upcoming season. Percy Harvin is the great unknown. He was completely absent in 2013 until the Super Bowl when he had a kickoff return for a touchdown (see he's helping your Seahakws defense already!). With Golden Tate gone and Sidney Rice retired, it's all on his shoulders to make the passing game a threat. Drafting him will be all about value. His name and potential will increase his ADP while his injury risk will scare some people off. If he drops, he is a must pick, but don't go too crazy. That brings us to Russell Wilson who can be really, really good just as easy as he can be really, really quiet. The Seahawks play a run first style and then lean on their defense. Unless he gets his points early it usually winds up being a quiet day at the office. Hopefully with some of the losses on the defense the Seahawks on quite as dominant forcing Wilson to have to do a little bit more, thus raising his ceiling. Don't let the Super Bowl win fool you into reaching for him. He's a great #2 in a 10 team league and a fringe starter in anything bigger. As for Marshawn Lynch, all the signs of a first round bust are there. He's had a ton of mileage on his tires with 1,002 rushes over the last three seasons (including the playoffs). That's 334 per year for those of you who don't know how to operate a calculator. He has got to be tired (I'm tired just carrying my kid up to bed once a night). There has already been talk of more of a time share in Seattle this season with Christine Michael who is a must-handcuff for anyone willing to ride the rainbow one more season.
Big & Splash - Big Splash!
This is where I cover the rookie class...you know the guys who are looking to make a big splash onto the fantasy football scene. Some people call me a genius when they read these preview posts, others just point their finger at me and laugh like Nelson on The Simpsons. Anyways, this years crop of rookies will at least get more headlines than last years did, but whether they produce on the field worthy of a draft pick in your league is yet to be seen.
QBs: Blake Bortles, Johnny Manziel and Teddy Bridgewater - DO NOT DRAFT see that was easy.
Okay to be fair I'd pick any and all of them just in case in a keeper/dynasty league, but for a re-draft league only Manziel intrigues me as a backup. He will, of course, get 98% of all the rookie headlines this season whether he warrants them or not. Bortles and his fellow rookie WRs will have their moments, but not enough to worthy wasting a draft pick. They'll be waiver wire pickups sometime this season. I know I'm not alone in think that Teddy Bridgewater is in the best spot to succeed this season and for years ahead. He has AP behind him and Cordarrelle Patterson and Kyle Rudolph to throw to with Norv Turner calling the shots. If you told me he was going to start 16 games I'd be willing to put him in my sleeper picks as a QB1 in a 12+ team league. Yeah I have high hopes.
RBs: Bishop Sankey, Tre Mason, Jeremy Hill and Carlos Hyde (and even Andre Williams) - DRAFT 'EM ALL!!!
Already Sankey is being touted as ROY potential in Tennessee since CJbarely1K has finally been pushed away to New York. He should be the first rookie RB off your draft board, but there are a few behind him that, if given the right situation could easily surpass his numbers. If for any reason Zac Stacy falls victim to a sophomore slump, Tre Mason could step right in an perform quite nicely. The same goes for Jeremy Hill in Cincinnati as he sits behind personal favorite Gio Bernard. He might even get a good chunk of the touches if Gio can't prove to be an every down back (he'll be just fine, TYVM). Carlos Hyde and Andre Williams were afterthoughts just a week or two ago, but they have already moved up the depth charts due to injuries in San Francisco and New York (Giants).
Here's all you need to know about the rookie crop of running backs, find a spot on your roster for one at the end of the draft. Don't take a backup TE, K or D or God forbid a 3rd QB. Stack the back end of your roster with as many RBs as you can and hope they turn into gold.
WRs: Five of the first 28 and 8 of the first 45 in this draft were spent on WRs.
I'm not touching any of them save for Sammy Watkins as a WR4 at best. I just don't trust rookie WRs one bit. Last season Keenan Allen surprised everyone by being quite the stud, but remember he was the 8th WR draft in the 2013 draft. It's just too difficult to pick out a diamond from the rough. Plus, there are far too many good WRs compared to RBs in the NFL which is why loading up on rookie backs is far more advisable.
TEs: Eric Ebron - As Samuel L. Jackson once said 'Hold on to your butts!'
Note to self: Control your emotions Jason, don't give it away that you are going to try and draft (in every league you're in) the best offensive player to come out of UNC since...2013. I think Eric Ebron is destined for multiple Pro-Bowl seasons in the NFL. I may be typing with rose-colored glasses on as a fan of the Tar Heels, but it believe he's the real deal. He's in a great situation even though past Detroit TEs have disappeared even while Matt Stafford was throwing for 5,000 yards per season. Use him or lose him Matty.
The Money Pit
You remember this movie? Tom Hanks and Shelley Long keep pouring money into a house in the hopes of making it their dream home with disastrously funny results. I'm a Washington Redskins fan (this does not count as one of the laughs I was looking for Mr./Ms. Reader) and under Dan Snyder, the Redskins are like these characters when it comes to free agency. If you throw money at them, they will come. Well it doesn't always work out they way it was planned. In this section I'll look at a few 'old faces in new places' and determine just how big of a money pit they'll be.
QB: Michael Vick - Fun fact, In 2003 I drafted Michael Vick #1 overall, days before he broke his leg causing him to miss the first 11 games of the season. Good times. 11 years later he's just trying to be a starter on the Jets. Unless he's named opening day starter by the time you draft you can leave him to the dogs.
RBs: Chris Johnson - Hey look another new Jet. Not guaranteed of anything more than a timeshare, Johnson's stock should be pretty low and thus intriguing as a 'just in case' measure.
Knowshown Moreno - From the penthouse to the outhouse. Moreno heads from high flying Denver to Miami. Again he's walking into a possible timeshare with last years bust Lamar Miller. Moreno is certainly the favorite to emerge, but nothing more than a RB3 in most leagues.
Maurice Jones-Drew - After years of toiling away in the wasteland known as Jacksonville, MJD now gets to ride into the sunset of his NFL career in the wasteland that is Oakland. Now the Raiders actually made some decent moves to shore up their defense this year and thus should be a bit better overall. On the other side of the ball MJD gets paired with Run-DMC who together should be healthy for at least six games. The Oakland backfield will be a mess.
Ben Tate - He finally gets his chance to shine. Well that is if he doesn't lose the starting job to rookie Terrance West as I've already heard hints of through the grapevine (which is an actual grape vine in my back yard that I put my ear up to until the neighbors begin to snicker). If you believe in him, that's fine, but temper your expectations.
Rashad Jennings - He's already gaining traction as a breakout player possibility now that David Wilson has mercifully retired due to his neck injury. The Giants as a whole will be looking to rebound after a debacle of a season and if they can, Jennings may be at the forefront. If Eli Manning continues to crap the bed, Jennings may just be another option for your BYE weeks.
Toby Gerhart - Just like Ben Tate, Gerhart now gets his chance to be a starter after being stuck behind one of the best in the game. Jacksonville has a rookie QB and a very young WR core so they should struggle again to stay consistent on offense. Draft him with a cautious upside.
Donald Brown - He has burned me so many times and is now 3rd string on a team that will rotate RBs at will. Just how much will he play is the big question. If you get Ryan Mathews and have an extra spot to fill in the last round, you could do worse than Brown.
WRs: DeSean Jackson - Now the Redskins didn't back up the truck for Jackson which I'm happy about. Washington will deploy four smallish WRs and big Jordan Reed at TE. If RGIII can figure out how to be a better pocket passer or re-gain the elusiveness as a running threat, the passing game could be lights out in DC. Jackson won't be a PPR monster, but he'll get a few big plays. Solid WR2 option.
Steve Smith - In Carolina it was always about Steve Smith being the only receiving option. Now in Baltimore he'll be able to mix in with Torrey Smith, Dennis Pitta and the one who likes to beat on women. His numbers will be down, but he could still be productive in deeper leagues.
Eric Decker - More Jets! I'm staying away from Decker unless he plummets into the abyss during a draft. He is, by far, the biggest 'money pit' player out there IMO. See Jennings, Greg for an example of what to expect.
Golden Tate - When you draft him you must sing 'I've got the Golden Ticket, I've got the golden twinkle in my eye!' Detroit should be awesome again on offense with Megatron and Reggie Bush, but now with Ebron and Tate they could be near unstoppable. The only downside for me is he'll take away from the numbers that I know Ebron is capable of.
Emmanuel Sanders - He should be good for about 85% of an Eric Decker. That is plenty good enough to draft. He'll be the fourth option on a team that should have 40+ passing TDs. You do the math.
A League of Their Own
When it comes to studs, you won't find many sites who are willing to predict a down year. I will throw out the fact that I wrote about last year for LeagueSafe.com: A first round caliber running back from a team with a losing record will miss half the season or more. FACT.
Doug Martin was the causality in 2013 when Tampa went 4-12. The trend continued:
2012: Maurice Jones-Drew (10 games), Jacksonville goes 2-14; 2011: Jamaal Charles (14 games), Kansas City goes 7-9; 2010: DeAngelo Williams (10 games), Carolina goes 2-14; 2009: Clinton Portis (8 games), Washington goes 4-12. Bad things happen to good running backs on bad teams.
So who will be the victim in 2014??? My best bets are Arian Foster or DeMarco Murray. Book it. Dark horse candidate LeSean McCoy!!
Outside of that the biggest worry I'll have with studs is Peyton Manning. He controls the fate of so may top picks. Five of the top 45 picks on ESPN.com are Broncos and Emmanuel Sanders is at 82.
We've seen what happened to Green Bay without Aaron Rodgers and Dallas without Tony Romo in the past. I bring up Manning because just because he was the best player in the NFL last year, that doesn't erase his medical history.
The two safest picks IMO of the consensus first round are neither RBs nor QBs, but rather Calvin Johnson and Jimmy Graham. If you don't get AP, Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy or Matt Forte in the top four and are scared of Peyton Manning for any reason, draft one of those two at five and six. After the first seven picks, life gets a bit more complicated.
Saving Private Ryan
Last season the Atlanta Falcons fell and fell hard. Tony Gonzalez came back to play one final year because he thought Atlanta, with the addition of Steven Jackson, had the final piece in the Super Bowl puzzle. Well a funny thing happened on the way to the parade down Peachtree Street. Jackson got injured (shocker I know), Julio Jones got injured and Roddy White missed some time. All in all it was an unmitigated disaster for quarterback Matt Ryan, so will 2014 be any different?
Steven Jackson is a year older and Tony Gonzalez finally hung up his cleats.
That's not good.
Julio Jones and Roddy White are back and healthy which is good. If Atlanta can find a running game (probably from someone other than Jackson), they have a chance to put up decent to above average numbers. I don't think Atlanta has hopes of playing in a Super Bowl this season, but Ryan should better this season. I mean, it can't go much worse than it did last year, right?
There will be some good value in Roddy White and Matt Ryan when drafting. I'd even keep an eye on Devonta Freeman who could prove worthy of more than a late round flier.
You've Got Mail
It was recently published that approximately 2.3 MILLION people are still subscribing to AOL dial up services. You have GOT to be kidding me!?!?! Remember when AOL was awesome? I barely do. This is where I will point out that some RBs might have a name that you recognize, but deep down inside you know they're waaaaay past their prime. Time to upgrade your services people.
I've already discussed a few of this years crop who are just trying to hang on to their fledgling careers.
1) MJD
2) Steven Jackson
3) Chris Johnson
Here are a few others that I would avoid unless you just can't pass them up because they've dropped like a rock:
4) BenJarvus Green-Ellis - put a fork in him, he's done. The Bengals have two young and capable backs to turn to and Green-Ellis will be looking for a roster spot somewhere when injuries happen by September.
5) DeAngelo Williams - This has been a slow bleed, as he has managed to stay healthy, but his production has basically flat lined. His last three seasons his YPC has gone 5.4, 4.3, 4.2 as his carries have increase each of those seasons. His TDs have also gone 7, 5, 3 in those same three seasons. More touches with less production and even fewer scoring. Yikes.
6) Ray Rice - He's just 27, but he's had a lot of work in a short time. Tack on the fact that he'll be missing the first two games of the season and Bernard Pierce will be itching to rebound from his sophomore slump, he is ripe for failure. Too much crap going on in his life to focus on the game.
7) Frank Gore - Prove me wrong again Gore...do it. Will this finally be the year that the 49ers use their stockpile of young backs (those that aren't already injured)? I'm saying that it is. Paging Carlos Hyde, you are needed at the sleeper desk.
Band of Brothers
Okay, so this isn't a true movie, but it's an exquisite mini series. I just couldn't pass this one up. Also don't miss 'From the Earth to the Moon' and currently airing on CNN 'The Sixties'. Have you figured out what I will be discussing in this section?
Yup, everyone's favorite coaches to hate, Jim and John Harbaugh and their teams the San Francisco 49ers and the Baltimore Ravens. Just two years ago they were fighting it out for the Super Bowl, but both fell short last season. The Niners are in a better position IMO to get back to the promised land, but the Ravens have the advantage of playing in a watered down AFC.
I've already covered both Frank Gore and Ray Rice and how I think this will be a down year for both as they have both been just so good for so long for their respective teams.
At quarterback you have two guys in Colin Kaepernick and Joe Flacco who have signed big money extensions and are now expected to be elite for a long time. The key for Kaepernick is keeping Michael Crabtree on the field. When Crabtree plays, Colin produces big time fantasy stats. He should come cheap this year and provide great upside with a full year from Crabtree.
As for Flacco, oh Joe...he had more games with 2+ interceptions in 2013 (7) than he did 2+ touchdowns (6). That's not good. Of course the Ravens O-Line was in shambles which led to not being able to run the ball at all. Being forced to throw and to throw into traffic got him in a ton of trouble. Now with a healthy Dennis Pitta and the savvy veteran, Steve Smith, things should be better. How much is the key? You will draft him as a backup, but you could wind up using him if Baltimore gets hot.
Each team has a quality TE although Vernon Davis has at least proved himself, while we are all waiting for Dennis Pitta to join the elite members of the fantasy TE world. Davis scored 13 times last season, which was the second time he's done that in his career. The last time he did that he followed it up with 13 touchdowns TOTAL over the next two seasons. I have to believe that a full season from Crabtree will cut into his total scores, but he will still be a top 5 TE nonetheless. For Pitta, his owners would be thrilled with a 'Vernon Davis down year' type year with 600 yards receiving and 6 touchdowns. Lump him in with about half a dozen other TEs that you can get cheap and late and won't hurt you too much.
At WR between Torrey and Steve Smith, Michael Crabtree and ex-Raven Anquan Boldin you have four WRs all capable of big games and stretches of inconsistent fantasy numbers. If I had to put them in order of fantasy points I'd go: Crabtree, Torrey, Steve and Anquan. All worthy of a mid round pick and all worthy of starts and sits all season long.
Catch Me If You Can
In this movie, Tom Hanks runs around trying to catch a teenager who is kiting checks and emulating a pilot and doctor among other professions. In recent years, the NFL has seen a change of pace from plodding running games and low scoring offenses, to wide open, four WR sets and Tecmo Bowl style scores. There are a glutton of WRs who will be challenging defenses who are handcuffed by today's rules to catch them if they can. *Groan* goes the audience. Yeah you all saw that one coming.
In my opinion we are almost to the point where ALL leagues should require 3 WRs to start. In you average, run of the mill, 10 team league if you only played the top 20 scoring WRs of 2013 you wouldn't have used four receivers who posted 1,000+ yards receiving and three other receivers who scored 10 TDs!! Let's look at those names:
Michael Floyd, Brian Hartline, Harry Douglas, Kendall Wright, Wes Welker, Marvin Jones and Jerricho Cotchery. You could win some fantasy games with 3 or 4 of those receivers, no? None were in the Top 20 in standard scoring on ESPN last year.
Now if you stretched out the field and were forced to own someone between 36-40 we would get:
Eddie Royal, Rod Streater, Doug Baldwin, Greg Jennings and Terrance Williams (and yet big names like Steve Smith and Dwayne Bowe are still behind them!).
WR is deep enough right now that forcing owners to find that diamond in the rough makes it more fun rather than just running out Stud A and Stud C vs Stud B and Stud D. Yawn!
More roster spots everyone!!! Make BYE weeks, trading and waiver wire pickups mean something. It's just too easy if you don't push WR (and RB for that matter) past the top 30.
The Ladykillers
I must admit, I didn't enjoy this movie one bit. I saw it in the theaters and I would rank it in my Top 10 of worst movies I've paid money to see (also listed - and don't judge me - Freddy Got Fingered, To Die For, The Royal Tennebaums, Waterworld, The Truth About Cats and Dogs (date), Lady in the Water, Funny People, Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull and Star Wars Episode I).
But I'm not here to discuss bad movies, but I am going to point out my thoughts on the real 'lady killers' of the NFL, your starting QBs of the NFL. These are the guys who get the head cheerleader, star in all of the commercials and usually just look the best (face of the franchise for a reason). Even if you suck, yeah I'm looking at you Christian Ponder, you usually do okay in life.
Let's start at the top with Peyton Manning who may not be Tom Brady when it comes to wooing the ladies, but he is the face of the NFL when it comes to advertising. Between him, Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees you have three stud QBs and then the position becomes wide open.
This year I'd be willing to lump in Matt Stafford who I think will challenge for that #3 spot, but even if he falls short he should still produce huge numbers in Detroit. If you miss out on those four, fear not, there are 6-10 more QBs I think you can win a fantasy championship with:
(In no particular order)
Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, Tony Romo, RGIII, Colin Kaepernick, Jay Cutler, Andy Dalton, Russell Wilson, Nick Foles, Tom Brady, Matt Ryan and Phillip Rivers.
That's 16!! QBs who are all worthy of starting on any given Sunday. Sure there is some wide week-to-week variance of those final dozen, but if you get them late enough you should be able to make up the points by being stronger at RB/WR/TE than your opponent who drafted Peyton/Rodgers/Brees/Stafford in Rounds 1-3.
Here's my advice: draft a stud QB if you are stuck on picking between a RB you don't like or a WR you think you can get in the next round, but wait on QBs if you are happy with your RB/WR/TE picks in the first six rounds.
Angels & Demons
For my last film of the post I cover one of the movies that came from the Dan Brown book series where Tom Hanks is the lead character Robert Langdon. It's like the 'National Treasure' series with Nick Cage only with more religion and less world history. Either way I'm a sucker for all of these movies where it's basically good vs. evil and a treasure hunt.
As for how it relates to the NFL, when you draft your team it is all about maximizing your 'sleepers' AKA 'angels' and minimizing your 'busts' AKA 'demons'. Not too much of a stretch if I do say so myself!
Angels (Sleepers)
QBs: Jay Cutler - He has Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery and Matt Forte. He played in 10 full games in 2013. The numbers he put up in those games worked out to be a 4,100+ yard, 30 TD season. He is currently going 16th overall for QBs on ESPN. He was also on pace for 18 INTs so there is that. He has all the makings of a top 8 QB in 2014.
Andy Dalton - In his three years in the NFL, Andy Dalton has started all 48 games for the Cincinnati Bengals. Each year he has seen his Attempts, Yards, TDs, Yards/Attempt, Team Record and unfortunately his INTs increase. He signed a new deal and now the question is whether he has peaked or whether he has one (or more) levels to grow. If the Bengals can find a TE to emerge and get Gio the ball 70 times out of the backfield, he may just hit that next upper level. Look for 4,400 yards, 35 TDs and 18 INTs to get the Bengals into the playoffs for their fourth straight season. That's better than the 17th overall QB as he is going right now.
RBs: Carlos Hyde - I've already touched on Frank Gore stepping aside sometime this season due to rest/injury/ineffectiveness. One of these years I'm bound to be right.
Joique Bell - Do I think Reggie Bush can put together another season of 14+ games while carrying the ball over 200 times?? No, no I do not. I think the Lions are going to play thing a bit smarter and let Bell tote the rock much more on 1st and 2nd down and let Bush be the 3rd down, trailing late in the game back. Bell gets an extra 60 attempts and finishes around 900 yards and 10 TDs. Bush still catches 50 passes and has 6 total TDs, but Bell is the Lions back I want.
WRs: Terrance Williams - Oh thank heavens that Miles Austin is gone for good from Dallas. Maybe now they can find someone to lighten the coverage for Dez Bryant and Jason Witten on the opposite side of the field. He's got a 1,000 yard season ahead of him with 7 TDs as Dallas will need to score 30+ points a week to have a chance. Currently he's the 37th WR coming off the board on ESPN.
Riley Cooper - I stay in the NFC East for another WR who showed flashes last season although he was stuck behind other guys. Well DeSean Jackson is gone and the Eagles aren't about to stop their high paced, fun and gun style. Somebody has to pick up the slack as the deep threat option. With Darren Sproles working underneath, Cooper should find some openings over the top to the tune of double digits TDs.
TE - Ladarius Green - He has had time to learn from one of the best and now he takes the lead. He showed some promise in the middle of the season last year so I know he can do it. Antonio Gates didn't top 50 yards receiving over the final six weeks of the season as father time was catching up to him. Draft Green as a backup and watch him explode by Week 5.
Demons (Busts)
QBs: Cam Newton - I know all about his top 4 streak he has going as a fantasy quarterback. That ends with a bang this year. A diminishing running attack, the loss of his safety valve in Steve Smith and the off-season surgery all adds up to an ugly year. Outside of the top 15 for Newton.
Johnny Manziel - Being drafted ahead of Jay Cutler and Andy Dalton. I'm sorry, but I'm just not on board for fantasy greatness just yet. I love the enthusiasm, but I think there will be a learning curve than most all rookies go through. If he had Josh Gordon the whole season, maybe, just maybe I'd get fully on board.
RBs: Who haven't I named already? Gore, Reggie Bush, DeMarco Murray and Arian Foster are my big four.
Overall I think this will be a down year for RBs which makes hitting pay dirt all the more important. Which is why so many people are using their first two picks on a WR/QB combo and then just loading up on 4-5 middle tier RBs and hoping to get lucky.
WRs: Andre Johnson - Blame this on Ryan Fitzpatrick. That's all I have and that's all I need. His numbers come back to Earth this year.
Larry Fitzgerald - His value rebounded last season thanks in large part to the 10 TDs while not even hitting 1,000 yards receiving (for the second consecutive season). Third times the charm has he fails to hit even 900 yards receiving and only 5 TDs.
TE: Outside of Antonio Gates you ask?
Julius Thomas - When something is just too good to be true like last season was for Thomas, I get a weird feeling. After scoring 8 times in the first 7 weeks he found the end zone just 4 times over the last 9 weeks including two lost to injury. Everything won't be all butterflies and rainbows this season in Denver so temper your expectations.
So that's it for this season. If you have read this you are already 8% of the way to winning your league! Congrats and please make all checks of your winnings payable to Jason Wippich.
Good luck and have fun.
Monday, February 3, 2014
NFL Recap
Congratulations to the Seattle Seahawks on finally bringing another championship to the Pacific Northwest. Not since the now defunct Seattle Supersonics took down the nearly defunct Washington Bullets (now Wizards) in five game in 1979 has Seattle had a chance to party. Oh marijuana is legal there you say? Forget that. I just hope the Denver Broncos don't suffer the same fate as a franchise the way that the Washington basketball franchise has seen. In the 34 full seasons (not counting the current season) since that loss to Seattle, Washington has won just 41% (1128-1612) of their games which would be a 6.5 win season in the NFL. Not only that but Washington has won just two playoff series and has had 16 head coaches. Times could get tough in the Mile High City.
You think this can't happen to a proud franchise like Denver? They're not going to have Peyton Manning much longer if at all anymore. If they don't find another franchise quarterback who knows how long it could take to get back to elite status. To bring it full circle, the Washington Redskins have played 22 seasons since their last Super Bowl appearance. They have won 149 games of the 352 played. That's a winning percentage of .42 or 6.7 wins per season. The Redskins have won just three playoff games and have had eight different head coaches (nine if you count Gibbs' second term). Welcome to my own personal hell Broncos fans.
So let's look back at my predictions from my 3rd annual NFL Crystal Ball and see how bad they were.
Breakout Candidates
T.Y. Hilton - He caught more passes, for more yards, but had fewer touchdown receptions. Even with teammate and default WR1 Reggie Wayne going down with and injury, Hilton never exploded on a consistent basis.
Daryl Richardson - UGH...he killed me here and in the fantasy football world. What a utter disaster. I was correct that the Rams would produce a fantasy sleeper darling at the RB position, but that went to Zac Stacy. Richardson was a bust in all senses of the word.
Ben Tate - It was a good bounce back season for Tate, but Arian Foster didn't stay injured long enough and even when Foster went down, so did Tate. His 2013 season was very similar to his rookie campaign, but not good enough to be a breakout player.
Dwayne Bowe - The KC Chiefs were my breakout team and they did very well. Dwayne Bowe on the other hand took a step back from his 2012 campaign. His style is just not a good fit for what Andy Reid wanted to do with the passing game. Maybe the Redskins will trade a future 1st round pick for him...I kid I kid.
So yeah not so good Jason.
Busts
C.J. Spiller - Now we're talking! Taken in the first round in most every fantasy draft, Spiller was relegated to backup status behind Fred Jackson in Buffalo. He had moments of glory, but he had fewer total yards this season than he had rushing yards last season and scored just two times.
Vincent Jackson - Right shape, wrong size. I thought the downfall of Josh Freeman would lead to the downfall of Vincent Jackson, but Freeman's departure only helped Jackson. He put up very similar stats to his 2012 campaign with rookie Mike Glennon at the helm.
DeSean Jackson - As we'll see I was dead wrong on the Eagles as a whole. DeSean would have been an ideal fit for my 'breakout' category. He nearly doubled his receiving yards and caught 9 touchdowns compared to 2 in 2012. I thought he had one foot out of the league and instead he was playing in the Pro Bowl.
Carson Palmer - I suppose the bar was relatively low for Palmer and he did a pretty decent job in Arizona. Sure the interceptions were there with 22, but he also started all 16 games and threw 24 touchdowns for a team that went 10-6. Not too shabby.
MVP
I had high hopes for Colin Kaepernick, but after Week 1's explosion is was mostly downhill for his stat line. My runner-up, Peyton Manning, took home the prize with his record breaking season.
Standings and Predicted Records (actual records in parenthesis)
NFC EAST
Washington Redskins 10-6 (3-13)
New York Giants 9-7 (7-9)
Dallas Cowboys 8-8 (8-8)
Philadelphia Eagles 7-9 (10-6)
NFC NORTH
Detroit Lions 11-5 (7-9)
Green Bay Packers 10-6 (8-7-1)
Chicago Bears 7-9 (8-8)
Minnesota Vikings 5-11 (5-10-1)
NFC SOUTH
Atlanta Falcons 12-4 (4-12)
New Orleans Saints 11-5 (11-5)
Carolina Panthers 7-9 (12-4)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5-11 (4-12)
NFC WEST
San Francisco 49ers 12-4 (12-4)
Seattle Seahawks 11-5 (13-3)
St. Louis Rams 9-7 (7-9)
Arizona Cardinals 2-14 (10-6)
AFC EAST
New England Patriots 13-3 (12-4)
Miami Dolphins 6-10 (8-8)
New York Jets 3-13 (8-8)
Buffalo Bills 3-13 (6-10)
AFC NORTH
Cincinnati Bengals 11-5 (11-5)
Pittsburgh Steelers 9-7 (8-8)
Baltimore Ravens 8-8 (8-8)
Cleveland Browns 8-8 (4-12)
AFC SOUTH
Indianapolis Colts 13-3 (11-5)
Houston Texans 11-5 (2-14)
Tennessee Titans 5-11 (7-9)
Jacksonville Jaguars 4-12 (4-12)
AFC WEST
Denver Broncos 12-4 (13-3)
Kansas City Chiefs 10-6 (11-5)
Oakland Raiders 3-13 (4-12)
San Diego Chargers 2-14 (9-7)
I went 4 for 8 in Division winners taking an 0-fer in the NFC and going a perfect 4-4 in the AFC. That is two consecutive years going perfect in the AFC.
Biggest misses were Arizona, Washington and Philadelphia in the NFC and the Texans and Chargers in the AFC.
As for the playoffs my prediction of Denver over Atlanta didn't come true, but my Denver over Seattle from February of 2013 was much better.
As for my all too early Super Bowl 49 prediction (with the hopes of going back to back on picking the correct two teams) will be....Seattle becoming the first repeat championsince the Cowboys in the 90's err the Patriots in the 2000s over the New England Patriots who get their last Super Bowl run with Tom Brady and Bill Belichick.
You think this can't happen to a proud franchise like Denver? They're not going to have Peyton Manning much longer if at all anymore. If they don't find another franchise quarterback who knows how long it could take to get back to elite status. To bring it full circle, the Washington Redskins have played 22 seasons since their last Super Bowl appearance. They have won 149 games of the 352 played. That's a winning percentage of .42 or 6.7 wins per season. The Redskins have won just three playoff games and have had eight different head coaches (nine if you count Gibbs' second term). Welcome to my own personal hell Broncos fans.
So let's look back at my predictions from my 3rd annual NFL Crystal Ball and see how bad they were.
Breakout Candidates
T.Y. Hilton - He caught more passes, for more yards, but had fewer touchdown receptions. Even with teammate and default WR1 Reggie Wayne going down with and injury, Hilton never exploded on a consistent basis.
Daryl Richardson - UGH...he killed me here and in the fantasy football world. What a utter disaster. I was correct that the Rams would produce a fantasy sleeper darling at the RB position, but that went to Zac Stacy. Richardson was a bust in all senses of the word.
Ben Tate - It was a good bounce back season for Tate, but Arian Foster didn't stay injured long enough and even when Foster went down, so did Tate. His 2013 season was very similar to his rookie campaign, but not good enough to be a breakout player.
Dwayne Bowe - The KC Chiefs were my breakout team and they did very well. Dwayne Bowe on the other hand took a step back from his 2012 campaign. His style is just not a good fit for what Andy Reid wanted to do with the passing game. Maybe the Redskins will trade a future 1st round pick for him...I kid I kid.
So yeah not so good Jason.
Busts
C.J. Spiller - Now we're talking! Taken in the first round in most every fantasy draft, Spiller was relegated to backup status behind Fred Jackson in Buffalo. He had moments of glory, but he had fewer total yards this season than he had rushing yards last season and scored just two times.
Vincent Jackson - Right shape, wrong size. I thought the downfall of Josh Freeman would lead to the downfall of Vincent Jackson, but Freeman's departure only helped Jackson. He put up very similar stats to his 2012 campaign with rookie Mike Glennon at the helm.
DeSean Jackson - As we'll see I was dead wrong on the Eagles as a whole. DeSean would have been an ideal fit for my 'breakout' category. He nearly doubled his receiving yards and caught 9 touchdowns compared to 2 in 2012. I thought he had one foot out of the league and instead he was playing in the Pro Bowl.
Carson Palmer - I suppose the bar was relatively low for Palmer and he did a pretty decent job in Arizona. Sure the interceptions were there with 22, but he also started all 16 games and threw 24 touchdowns for a team that went 10-6. Not too shabby.
MVP
I had high hopes for Colin Kaepernick, but after Week 1's explosion is was mostly downhill for his stat line. My runner-up, Peyton Manning, took home the prize with his record breaking season.
Standings and Predicted Records (actual records in parenthesis)
NFC EAST
Washington Redskins 10-6 (3-13)
New York Giants 9-7 (7-9)
Dallas Cowboys 8-8 (8-8)
Philadelphia Eagles 7-9 (10-6)
NFC NORTH
Detroit Lions 11-5 (7-9)
Green Bay Packers 10-6 (8-7-1)
Chicago Bears 7-9 (8-8)
Minnesota Vikings 5-11 (5-10-1)
NFC SOUTH
Atlanta Falcons 12-4 (4-12)
New Orleans Saints 11-5 (11-5)
Carolina Panthers 7-9 (12-4)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5-11 (4-12)
NFC WEST
San Francisco 49ers 12-4 (12-4)
Seattle Seahawks 11-5 (13-3)
St. Louis Rams 9-7 (7-9)
Arizona Cardinals 2-14 (10-6)
AFC EAST
New England Patriots 13-3 (12-4)
Miami Dolphins 6-10 (8-8)
New York Jets 3-13 (8-8)
Buffalo Bills 3-13 (6-10)
AFC NORTH
Cincinnati Bengals 11-5 (11-5)
Pittsburgh Steelers 9-7 (8-8)
Baltimore Ravens 8-8 (8-8)
Cleveland Browns 8-8 (4-12)
AFC SOUTH
Indianapolis Colts 13-3 (11-5)
Houston Texans 11-5 (2-14)
Tennessee Titans 5-11 (7-9)
Jacksonville Jaguars 4-12 (4-12)
AFC WEST
Denver Broncos 12-4 (13-3)
Kansas City Chiefs 10-6 (11-5)
Oakland Raiders 3-13 (4-12)
San Diego Chargers 2-14 (9-7)
I went 4 for 8 in Division winners taking an 0-fer in the NFC and going a perfect 4-4 in the AFC. That is two consecutive years going perfect in the AFC.
Biggest misses were Arizona, Washington and Philadelphia in the NFC and the Texans and Chargers in the AFC.
As for the playoffs my prediction of Denver over Atlanta didn't come true, but my Denver over Seattle from February of 2013 was much better.
As for my all too early Super Bowl 49 prediction (with the hopes of going back to back on picking the correct two teams) will be....Seattle becoming the first repeat champion
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