Tom Hanks and 2014 Fantasy Football

This is by far and away my most favorite blog post of each year. It combines the three hobbies that I enjoy most in life: sports, movies and gambling. Each year I choose one of my favorite actors in Hollywood (movies) and compare their body of work to the upcoming NFL season (sports) and how it relates to Fantasy Football (gambling). For an example, last season I chose John Cusack and I think I did okay. Some good calls (Jordan Cameron doing well and the state of New York sucking) and some bad calls (Ryan Williams breaking out and DeSean Jackson being a bust) which is the norm for predictions before most starters step onto the field in preseason. As always I aim for 79% accuracy and 3 solid laughs throughout the post.

This season I'm covering one of the most recognizable actors of my lifetime, Tom Hanks. The winner of two best actor Oscars, nominated in three different decades (and nearly a fourth this past year for Captain Phillips), Hanks has done almost everything in Hollywood. He started on television with the campy Bosom Buddies, then did screwball comedies in the 80s (Bachelor Party, The Money Pit), graduated to dramas and peaking with his awards in the 90s and then turned to blockbuster franchises (Toy Story, the Dan Brown novels) and finally producing and a little directing. If you asked 100 people what their favorite Tom Hanks movie was, you would probably get 15-20 different answers. If I had to rank my top 5 Tom Hanks movies they would be:

5) Big
4) Saving Private Ryan
3) A League of Their Own
2) Toy Story
1) Apollo 13 (yes I just watched this again this past weekend, I can't turn it off when it's on)

So let me get right to it and tell you everything you'll need to know about the upcoming Fantasy Football season.

Sleepless in Seattle

Just like last season when I started with the defending champion Ravens, I head to the great Pacific Northwest where the loyal fans of the Seahawks finally got their first Lombardi Trophy. Where do I start with this stacked team? Stud RB, Marshawn Lynch? Dynamic dual threat QB Russell Wilson? Big play potential WR Percy Harvin? How about the dominating Defense? Last season was nice, but they could be even better this season.

 Let's go backwards with the defense which normally doesn't get spoken about in fantasy football articles. The Seahawks defense should be the first defense drafted and it will be a round or two before any other defense. They had six games where they gave up fewer than 10 points and were the best in the league in giving up yards to the opponent. How could they get better? They only scored four defensive TDs in 2013 and with their big play potential they could easily have 2-3 more this upcoming season. Percy Harvin is the great unknown. He was completely absent in 2013 until the Super Bowl when he had a kickoff return for a touchdown (see he's helping your Seahakws defense already!). With Golden Tate gone and Sidney Rice retired, it's all on his shoulders to make the passing game a threat. Drafting him will be all about value. His name and potential will increase his ADP while his injury risk will scare some people off. If he drops, he is a must pick, but don't go too crazy. That brings us to Russell Wilson who can be really, really good just as easy as he can be really, really quiet. The Seahawks play a run first style and then lean on their defense. Unless he gets his points early it usually winds up being a quiet day at the office. Hopefully with some of the losses on the defense the Seahawks on quite as dominant forcing Wilson to have to do a little bit more, thus raising his ceiling. Don't let the Super Bowl win fool you into reaching for him. He's a great #2 in a 10 team league and a fringe starter in anything bigger. As for Marshawn Lynch, all the signs of a first round bust are there. He's had a ton of mileage on his tires with 1,002 rushes over the last three seasons (including the playoffs). That's 334 per year for those of you who don't know how to operate a calculator. He has got to be tired (I'm tired just carrying my kid up to bed once a night). There has already been talk of more of a time share in Seattle this season with Christine Michael who is a must-handcuff for anyone willing to ride the rainbow one more season.

Big & Splash - Big Splash!

This is where I cover the rookie class...you know the guys who are looking to make a big splash onto the fantasy football scene. Some people call me a genius when they read these preview posts, others just point their finger at me and laugh like Nelson on The Simpsons. Anyways, this years crop of rookies will at least get more headlines than last years did, but whether they produce on the field worthy of a draft pick in your league is yet to be seen.

QBs: Blake Bortles, Johnny Manziel and Teddy Bridgewater - DO NOT DRAFT see that was easy.

Okay to be fair I'd pick any and all of them just in case in a keeper/dynasty league, but for a re-draft league only Manziel intrigues me as a backup. He will, of course, get 98% of all the rookie headlines this season whether he warrants them or not. Bortles and his fellow rookie WRs will have their moments, but not enough to worthy wasting a draft pick. They'll be waiver wire pickups sometime this season. I know I'm not alone in think that Teddy Bridgewater is in the best spot to succeed this season and for years ahead. He has AP behind him and Cordarrelle Patterson and Kyle Rudolph to throw to with Norv Turner calling the shots. If you told me he was going to start 16 games I'd be willing to put him in my sleeper picks as a QB1 in a 12+ team league. Yeah I have high hopes.

RBs: Bishop Sankey, Tre Mason, Jeremy Hill and Carlos Hyde (and even Andre Williams) - DRAFT 'EM ALL!!!

Already Sankey is being touted as ROY potential in Tennessee since CJbarely1K has finally been pushed away to New York. He should be the first rookie RB off your draft board, but there are a few behind him that, if given the right situation could easily surpass his numbers. If for any reason Zac Stacy falls victim to a sophomore slump, Tre Mason could step right in an perform quite nicely. The same goes for Jeremy Hill in Cincinnati as he sits behind personal favorite Gio Bernard. He might even get a good chunk of the touches if Gio can't prove to be an every down back (he'll be just fine, TYVM). Carlos Hyde and Andre Williams were afterthoughts just a week or two ago, but they have already moved up the depth charts due to injuries in San Francisco and New York (Giants).

Here's all you need to know about the rookie crop of running backs, find a spot on your roster for one at the end of the draft. Don't take a backup TE, K or D or God forbid a 3rd QB. Stack the back end of your roster with as many RBs as you can and hope they turn into gold.

WRs: Five of the first 28 and 8 of the first 45 in this draft were spent on WRs.

I'm not touching any of them save for Sammy Watkins as a WR4 at best. I just don't trust rookie WRs one bit. Last season Keenan Allen surprised everyone by being quite the stud, but remember he was the 8th WR draft in the 2013 draft. It's just too difficult to pick out a diamond from the rough. Plus, there are far too many good WRs compared to RBs in the NFL which is why loading up on rookie backs is far more advisable.

TEs: Eric Ebron - As Samuel L. Jackson once said 'Hold on to your butts!'

Note to self: Control your emotions Jason, don't give it away that you are going to try and draft (in every league you're in) the best offensive player to come out of UNC since...2013. I think Eric Ebron is destined for multiple Pro-Bowl seasons in the NFL. I may be typing with rose-colored glasses on as a fan of the Tar Heels, but it believe he's the real deal. He's in a great situation even though past Detroit TEs have disappeared even while Matt Stafford was throwing for 5,000 yards per season. Use him or lose him Matty.

The Money Pit

You remember this movie? Tom Hanks and Shelley Long keep pouring money into a house in the hopes of making it their dream home with disastrously funny results. I'm a Washington Redskins fan (this does not count as one of the laughs I was looking for Mr./Ms. Reader) and under Dan Snyder, the Redskins are like these characters when it comes to free agency. If you throw money at them, they will come. Well it doesn't always work out they way it was planned. In this section I'll look at a few 'old faces in new places' and determine just how big of a money pit they'll be.

QB: Michael Vick - Fun fact, In 2003 I drafted Michael Vick #1 overall, days before he broke his leg causing him to miss the first 11 games of the season. Good times. 11 years later he's just trying to be a starter on the Jets. Unless he's named opening day starter by the time you draft you can leave him to the dogs.

RBs: Chris Johnson - Hey look another new Jet. Not guaranteed of anything more than a timeshare, Johnson's stock should be pretty low and thus intriguing as a 'just in case' measure.

Knowshown Moreno - From the penthouse to the outhouse. Moreno heads from high flying Denver to Miami. Again he's walking into a possible timeshare with last years bust Lamar Miller. Moreno is certainly the favorite to emerge, but nothing more than a RB3 in most leagues.

Maurice Jones-Drew - After years of toiling away in the wasteland known as Jacksonville, MJD now gets to ride into the sunset of his NFL career in the wasteland that is Oakland. Now the Raiders actually made some decent moves to shore up their defense this year and thus should be a bit better overall. On the other side of the ball MJD gets paired with Run-DMC who together should be healthy for at least six games. The Oakland backfield will be a mess.

Ben Tate - He finally gets his chance to shine. Well that is if he doesn't lose the starting job to rookie Terrance West as I've already heard hints of through the grapevine (which is an actual grape vine in my back yard that I put my ear up to until the neighbors begin to snicker). If you believe in him, that's fine, but temper your expectations.

Rashad Jennings - He's already gaining traction as a breakout player possibility now that David Wilson has mercifully retired due to his neck injury. The Giants as a whole will be looking to rebound after a debacle of a season and if they can, Jennings may be at the forefront. If Eli Manning continues to crap the bed, Jennings may just be another option for your BYE weeks.

Toby Gerhart - Just like Ben Tate, Gerhart now gets his chance to be a starter after being stuck behind one of the best in the game. Jacksonville has a rookie QB and a very young WR core so they should struggle again to stay consistent on offense. Draft him with a cautious upside.

Donald Brown - He has burned me so many times and is now 3rd string on a team that will rotate RBs at will. Just how much will he play is the big question. If you get Ryan Mathews and have an extra spot to fill in the last round, you could do worse than Brown.

WRs: DeSean Jackson - Now the Redskins didn't back up the truck for Jackson which I'm happy about. Washington will deploy four smallish WRs and big Jordan Reed at TE. If RGIII can figure out how to be a better pocket passer or re-gain the elusiveness as a running threat, the passing game could be lights out in DC. Jackson won't be a PPR monster, but he'll get a few big plays. Solid WR2 option.

Steve Smith - In Carolina it was always about Steve Smith being the only receiving option. Now in Baltimore he'll be able to mix in with Torrey Smith, Dennis Pitta and the one who likes to beat on women. His numbers will be down, but he could still be productive in deeper leagues.

Eric Decker - More Jets! I'm staying away from Decker unless he plummets into the abyss during a draft. He is, by far, the biggest 'money pit' player out there IMO. See Jennings, Greg for an example of what to expect.

Golden Tate - When you draft him you must sing 'I've got the Golden Ticket, I've got the golden twinkle in my eye!' Detroit should be awesome again on offense with Megatron and Reggie Bush, but now with Ebron and Tate they could be near unstoppable. The only downside for me is he'll take away from the numbers that I know Ebron is capable of.

Emmanuel Sanders - He should be good for about 85% of an Eric Decker. That is plenty good enough to draft. He'll be the fourth option on a team that should have 40+ passing TDs. You do the math.

A League of Their Own

When it comes to studs, you won't find many sites who are willing to predict a down year. I will throw out the fact that I wrote about last year for LeagueSafe.com: A first round caliber running back from a team with a losing record will miss half the season or more. FACT.

Doug Martin was the causality in 2013 when Tampa went 4-12. The trend continued:

2012: Maurice Jones-Drew (10 games), Jacksonville goes 2-14; 2011: Jamaal Charles (14 games), Kansas City goes 7-9; 2010: DeAngelo Williams (10 games), Carolina goes 2-14; 2009: Clinton Portis (8 games), Washington goes 4-12.  Bad things happen to good running backs on bad teams.

So who will be the victim in 2014???  My best bets are Arian Foster or DeMarco Murray. Book it. Dark horse candidate LeSean McCoy!!

Outside of that the biggest worry I'll have with studs is Peyton Manning. He controls the fate of so may top picks. Five of the top 45 picks on ESPN.com are Broncos and Emmanuel Sanders is at 82.

We've seen what happened to Green Bay without Aaron Rodgers and Dallas without Tony Romo in the past. I bring up Manning because just because he was the best player in the NFL last year, that doesn't erase his medical history.

The two safest picks IMO of the consensus first round are neither RBs nor QBs, but rather Calvin Johnson and Jimmy Graham. If you don't get AP, Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy or Matt Forte in the top four and are scared of Peyton Manning for any reason, draft one of those two at five and six. After the first seven picks, life gets a bit more complicated.

Saving Private Ryan

Last season the Atlanta Falcons fell and fell hard. Tony Gonzalez came back to play one final year because he thought Atlanta, with the addition of Steven Jackson, had the final piece in the Super Bowl puzzle. Well a funny thing happened on the way to the parade down Peachtree Street. Jackson got injured (shocker I know), Julio Jones got injured and Roddy White missed some time. All in all it was an unmitigated disaster for quarterback Matt Ryan, so will 2014 be any different?

Steven Jackson is a year older and Tony Gonzalez finally hung up his cleats.

That's not good.

Julio Jones and Roddy White are back and healthy which is good. If Atlanta can find a running game (probably from someone other than Jackson), they have a chance to put up decent to above average numbers. I don't think Atlanta has hopes of playing in a Super Bowl this season, but Ryan should better this season. I mean, it can't go much worse than it did last year, right?

There will be some good value in Roddy White and Matt Ryan when drafting. I'd even keep an eye on Devonta Freeman who could prove worthy of more than a late round flier.

You've Got Mail

It was recently published that approximately 2.3 MILLION people are still subscribing to AOL dial up services. You have GOT to be kidding me!?!?! Remember when AOL was awesome? I barely do. This is where I will point out that some RBs might have a name that you recognize, but deep down inside you know they're waaaaay past their prime. Time to upgrade your services people.

I've already discussed a few of this years crop who are just trying to hang on to their fledgling careers.

1) MJD
2) Steven Jackson
3) Chris Johnson

Here are a few others that I would avoid unless you just can't pass them up because they've dropped like a rock:

4) BenJarvus Green-Ellis - put a fork in him, he's done. The Bengals have two young and capable backs to turn to and Green-Ellis will be looking for a roster spot somewhere when injuries happen by September.

5) DeAngelo Williams - This has been a slow bleed, as he has managed to stay healthy, but his production has basically flat lined. His last three seasons his YPC has gone 5.4, 4.3, 4.2 as his carries have increase each of those seasons. His TDs have also gone 7, 5, 3 in those same three seasons. More touches with less production and even fewer scoring. Yikes.

6) Ray Rice - He's just 27, but he's had a lot of work in a short time. Tack on the fact that he'll be missing the first two games of the season and Bernard Pierce will be itching to rebound from his sophomore slump, he is ripe for failure. Too much crap going on in his life to focus on the game.

7) Frank Gore - Prove me wrong again Gore...do it. Will this finally be the year that the 49ers use their stockpile of young backs (those that aren't already injured)? I'm saying that it is. Paging Carlos Hyde, you are needed at the sleeper desk.

 Band of Brothers

Okay, so this isn't a true movie, but it's an exquisite mini series. I just couldn't pass this one up. Also don't miss 'From the Earth to the Moon' and currently airing on CNN 'The Sixties'. Have you figured out what I will be discussing in this section?

Yup, everyone's favorite coaches to hate, Jim and John Harbaugh and their teams the San Francisco 49ers and the Baltimore Ravens. Just two years ago they were fighting it out for the Super Bowl, but both fell short last season. The Niners are in a better position IMO to get back to the promised land, but the Ravens have the advantage of playing in a watered down AFC.

I've already covered both Frank Gore and Ray Rice and how I think this will be a down year for both as they have both been just so good for so long for their respective teams.

At quarterback you have two guys in Colin Kaepernick and Joe Flacco who have signed big money extensions and are now expected to be elite for a long time. The key for Kaepernick is keeping Michael Crabtree on the field. When Crabtree plays, Colin produces big time fantasy stats. He should come cheap this year and provide great upside with a full year from Crabtree.

As for Flacco, oh Joe...he had more games with 2+ interceptions in 2013 (7) than he did 2+ touchdowns (6). That's not good. Of course the Ravens O-Line was in shambles which led to not being able to run the ball at all. Being forced to throw and to throw into traffic got him in a ton of trouble. Now with a healthy Dennis Pitta and the savvy veteran, Steve Smith, things should be better. How much is the key? You will draft him as a backup, but you could wind up using him if Baltimore gets hot.

Each team has a quality TE although Vernon Davis has at least proved himself, while we are all waiting for Dennis Pitta to join the elite members of the fantasy TE world. Davis scored 13 times last season, which was the second time he's done that in his career. The last time he did that he followed it up with 13 touchdowns TOTAL over the next two seasons. I have to believe that a full season from Crabtree will cut into his total scores, but he will still be a top 5 TE nonetheless. For Pitta, his owners would be thrilled with a 'Vernon Davis down year' type year with 600 yards receiving and 6 touchdowns. Lump him in with about half a dozen other TEs that you can get cheap and late and won't hurt you too much.

At WR between Torrey and Steve Smith, Michael Crabtree and ex-Raven Anquan Boldin you have four WRs all capable of big games and stretches of inconsistent fantasy numbers. If I had to put them in order of fantasy points I'd go: Crabtree, Torrey, Steve and Anquan. All worthy of a mid round pick and all worthy of starts and sits all season long.

Catch Me If You Can

In this movie, Tom Hanks runs around trying to catch a teenager who is kiting checks and emulating a pilot and doctor among other professions. In recent years, the NFL has seen a change of pace from plodding running games and low scoring offenses, to wide open, four WR sets and Tecmo Bowl style scores. There are a glutton of WRs who will be challenging defenses who are handcuffed by today's rules to catch them if they can. *Groan* goes the audience. Yeah you all saw that one coming.

In my opinion we are almost to the point where ALL leagues should require 3 WRs to start. In you average, run of the mill, 10 team league if you only played the top 20 scoring WRs of 2013 you wouldn't have used four receivers who posted 1,000+ yards receiving and three other receivers who scored 10 TDs!! Let's look at those names:

Michael Floyd, Brian Hartline, Harry Douglas, Kendall Wright, Wes Welker, Marvin Jones and Jerricho Cotchery. You could win some fantasy games with 3 or 4 of those receivers, no? None were in the Top 20 in standard scoring on ESPN last year.

Now if you stretched out the field and were forced to own someone between 36-40 we would get:

Eddie Royal, Rod Streater, Doug Baldwin, Greg Jennings and Terrance Williams (and yet big names like Steve Smith and Dwayne Bowe are still behind them!).

WR is deep enough right now that forcing owners to find that diamond in the rough makes it more fun rather than just running out Stud A and Stud C vs Stud B and Stud D. Yawn!

More roster spots everyone!!! Make BYE weeks, trading and waiver wire pickups mean something. It's just too easy if you don't push WR (and RB for that matter) past the top 30.

The Ladykillers

I must admit, I didn't enjoy this movie one bit. I saw it in the theaters and I would rank it in my Top 10 of worst movies I've paid money to see (also listed - and don't judge me - Freddy Got Fingered, To Die For, The Royal Tennebaums, Waterworld, The Truth About Cats and Dogs (date), Lady in the Water, Funny People, Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull and Star Wars Episode I).

But I'm not here to discuss bad movies, but I am going to point out my thoughts on the real 'lady killers' of the NFL, your starting QBs of the NFL. These are the guys who get the head cheerleader, star in all of the commercials and usually just look the best (face of the franchise for a reason). Even if you suck, yeah I'm looking at you Christian Ponder, you usually do okay in life.

Let's start at the top with Peyton Manning who may not be Tom Brady when it comes to wooing the ladies, but he is the face of the NFL when it comes to advertising. Between him, Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees you have three stud QBs and then the position becomes wide open.

This year I'd be willing to lump in Matt Stafford who I think will challenge for that #3 spot, but even if he falls short he should still produce huge numbers in Detroit. If you miss out on those four, fear not, there are 6-10 more QBs I think you can win a fantasy championship with:

(In no particular order)

Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, Tony Romo, RGIII, Colin Kaepernick, Jay Cutler, Andy Dalton, Russell Wilson, Nick Foles, Tom Brady, Matt Ryan and Phillip Rivers.

That's 16!! QBs who are all worthy of starting on any given Sunday. Sure there is some wide week-to-week variance of those final dozen, but if you get them late enough you should be able to make up the points by being stronger at RB/WR/TE than your opponent who drafted Peyton/Rodgers/Brees/Stafford in Rounds 1-3.

Here's my advice: draft a stud QB if you are stuck on picking between a RB you don't like or a WR you think you can get in the next round, but wait on QBs if you are happy with your RB/WR/TE picks in the first six rounds.

Angels & Demons

For my last film of the post I cover one of the movies that came from the Dan Brown book series where Tom Hanks is the lead character Robert Langdon. It's like the 'National Treasure' series with Nick Cage only with more religion and less world history. Either way I'm a sucker for all of these movies where it's basically good vs. evil and a treasure hunt.

As for how it relates to the NFL, when you draft your team it is all about maximizing your 'sleepers' AKA 'angels' and minimizing your 'busts' AKA 'demons'. Not too much of a stretch if I do say so myself!

Angels (Sleepers)

QBs: Jay Cutler - He has Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery and Matt Forte. He played in 10 full games in 2013. The numbers he put up in those games worked out to be a 4,100+ yard, 30 TD season. He is currently going 16th overall for QBs on ESPN. He was also on pace for 18 INTs so there is that. He has all the makings of a top 8 QB in 2014.

        Andy Dalton - In his three years in the NFL, Andy Dalton has started all 48 games for the Cincinnati Bengals. Each year he has seen his Attempts, Yards, TDs, Yards/Attempt, Team Record and unfortunately his INTs increase. He signed a new deal and now the question is whether he has peaked or whether he has one (or more) levels to grow. If the Bengals can find a TE to emerge and get Gio the ball 70 times out of the backfield, he may just hit that next upper level. Look for 4,400 yards, 35 TDs and 18 INTs to get the Bengals into the playoffs for their fourth straight season. That's better than the 17th overall QB as he is going right now.

RBs: Carlos Hyde - I've already touched on Frank Gore stepping aside sometime this season due to rest/injury/ineffectiveness. One of these years I'm bound to be right.

Joique Bell - Do I think Reggie Bush can put together another season of 14+ games while carrying the ball over 200 times?? No, no I do not. I think the Lions are going to play thing a bit smarter and let Bell tote the rock much more on 1st and 2nd down and let Bush be the 3rd down, trailing late in the game back. Bell gets an extra 60 attempts and finishes around 900 yards and 10 TDs. Bush still catches 50 passes and has 6 total TDs, but Bell is the Lions back I want.

WRs: Terrance Williams - Oh thank heavens that Miles Austin is gone for good from Dallas. Maybe now they can find someone to lighten the coverage for Dez Bryant and Jason Witten on the opposite side of the field. He's got a 1,000 yard season ahead of him with 7 TDs as Dallas will need to score 30+ points a week to have a chance. Currently he's the 37th WR coming off the board on ESPN.

Riley Cooper - I stay in the NFC East for another WR who showed flashes last season although he was stuck behind other guys. Well DeSean Jackson is gone and the Eagles aren't about to stop their high paced, fun and gun style. Somebody has to pick up the slack as the deep threat option. With Darren Sproles working underneath, Cooper should find some openings over the top to the tune of double digits TDs.

TE - Ladarius Green - He has had time to learn from one of the best and now he takes the lead. He showed some promise in the middle of the season last year so I know he can do it. Antonio Gates didn't top 50 yards receiving over the final six weeks of the season as father time was catching up to him. Draft Green as a backup and watch him explode by Week 5.

Demons (Busts)

QBs: Cam Newton - I know all about his top 4 streak he has going as a fantasy quarterback. That ends with a bang this year. A diminishing running attack, the loss of his safety valve in Steve Smith and the off-season surgery all adds up to an ugly year. Outside of the top 15 for Newton.

Johnny Manziel - Being drafted ahead of Jay Cutler and Andy Dalton. I'm sorry, but I'm just not on board for fantasy greatness just yet. I love the enthusiasm, but I think there will be a learning curve than most all rookies go through. If he had Josh Gordon the whole season, maybe, just maybe I'd get fully on board.

RBs: Who haven't I named already? Gore, Reggie Bush, DeMarco Murray and Arian Foster are my big four.

Overall I think this will be a down year for RBs which makes hitting pay dirt all the more important. Which is why so many people are using their first two picks on a WR/QB combo and then just loading up on 4-5 middle tier RBs and hoping to get lucky.

WRs: Andre Johnson - Blame this on Ryan Fitzpatrick. That's all I have and that's all I need. His numbers come back to Earth this year.

Larry Fitzgerald - His value rebounded last season thanks in large part to the 10 TDs while not even hitting 1,000 yards receiving (for the second consecutive season). Third times the charm has he fails to hit even 900 yards receiving and only 5 TDs.

TE: Outside of Antonio Gates you ask?

Julius Thomas - When something is just too good to be true like last season was for Thomas, I get a weird feeling. After scoring 8 times in the first 7 weeks he found the end zone just 4 times over the last 9 weeks including two lost to injury. Everything won't be all butterflies and rainbows this season in Denver so temper your expectations.

So that's it for this season. If you have read this you are already 8% of the way to winning your league! Congrats and please make all checks of your winnings payable to Jason Wippich.

Good luck and have fun.

NFL Crystal Ball 2013

Third time is the charm, right?  After swinging and missing last year with a Houston over Atlanta Super Bowl, I'm back with another 72% guaranteed accurate prediction of the upcoming NFL season.  I'll predict every game, a bunch of break outs and flops, your future MVP and of course the winner of the first ever outdoor Super Bowl in a cold weather climate.

Seeing as my XBOX is currently covered in dust due to lack of use, I was resorted to breaking out my old Patriots vs Bears Super Bowl XX Electric Football Game and simulate the games while listening to that awful buzzing sound.  Basically, I started playing these games in early March and I have just now finished them.  Now although my all too early prediction from my post in February didn't come true exactly this go around, I was close.  I do know that the editors at ESPN the Magazine read my blog as their prediction of Denver over Seattle matched mine although they were 6 months late.  The only thing that kept Seattle from advancing in my mind during my simulation was the injury to Percy Harvin.  They'll drop a game that they shouldn't have forcing them to play on the road in the playoffs.

Here are some predictions for the season:

Break out candidates - T.Y. Hilton who finally emerges as the #1 receiver in Indianapolis over personal favorite Reggie Wayne.  Daryl Richardson who will either be the next Alfred Morris or Donald Brown making me look smart or costing me two fantasy leagues.  Ben Tate who takes over as the primary back in Houston in the 2nd half due to fatigue/injury concerns with Arian Foster.  Dwayne Bowe has been waiting for an offense like the one Andy Reid will compose.  He becomes a Pro Bowl starter if there is a Pro Bowl anymore.

Busts - C.J. Spiller becomes the latest top talent on a bad team to suffer an early season ending injury.  Vincent Jackson doesn't come close to his 2012 numbers mainly due to the lack of progression in the career of quarterback Josh Freeman who gets benched for a short spell mid-season.  DeSean Jackson wears out his welcome with the new Eagles coaching staff by sleeping through yet another team meeting and is relegated to 2nd string down the stretch.  Carson Palmer suffers behind the worst offensive line in the NFL for the second year in a row (Oakland was horrid in 2012) and doesn't make it through the season upright.

Regular season MVP: Colin Kaepernick narrowly edging out Peyton Manning

Here are you 2013 NFL Standings:

NFC EAST

Washington Redskins 10-6
New York Giants 9-7
Dallas Cowboys 8-8
Philadelphia Eagles 7-9

NFC NORTH

Detroit Lions 11-5
Green Bay Packers 10-6
Chicago Bears 7-9
Minnesota Vikings 5-11

NFC SOUTH

Atlanta Falcons 12-4
New Orleans Saints 11-5
Carolina Panthers 7-9
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5-11

NFC WEST

San Francisco 49ers 12-4
Seattle Seahawks 11-5
St. Louis Rams 9-7
Arizona Cardinals 2-14

AFC EAST

New England Patriots 13-3
Miami Dolphins 6-10
New York Jets 3-13
Buffalo Bills 3-13

AFC NORTH

Cincinnati Bengals 11-5
Pittsburgh Steelers 9-7
Baltimore Ravens 8-8
Cleveland Browns 8-8

AFC SOUTH

Indianapolis Colts 13-3
Houston Texans 11-5
Tennessee Titans 5-11
Jacksonville Jaguars 4-12

AFC WEST

Denver Broncos 12-4
Kansas City Chiefs 10-6
Oakland Raiders 3-13
San Diego Chargers 2-14

Playoffs:

NFC

1. San Francisco
2. Atlanta
3. Detroit
4. Washington
5. New Orleans
6. Seattle

Wild Card Round:

Seattle over Detroit
Washington over New Orleans

Divisional Round:

San Francisco over Seattle
Atlanta over Washington

NFC Championship:

Atlanta over San Francisco

AFC

1. New England
2. Indianapolis
3. Denver
4. Cincinnati
5. Houston
6. Kansas City

Wild Card Round:

Denver over Kansas City
Houston over Cincinnati

Divisional Round:

New England over Houston
Denver over Indianapolis

AFC Championship:

Denver over New England

Super Bowl:

Denver over Atlanta 27-20; Peyton Manning MVP 24-33 285 yards 2 TD's, 0 INT's and he retires on top.

Pocket Pair 8/13/12: Weekend Recap

The first full weekend of preseason football is behind us and the two biggest casualties were lost in two completely different ways.  San Diego Chargers running back Ryan Mathews was injured right off the bat with a broken collarbone and will likely miss the first couple of regular season games.  His fantasy stock had skyrocketed in the off season with the departure of touchdown vulture Mike Tolbert from the Chargers backfield.  Now it will be very interesting to see how far Mathews drops in fantasy drafts.  If he misses just a game or two he will still end up being rather valuable, but if it stretches to a third or even a fourth missed game it would be tough to spend a 2nd/3rd round pick on someone like that.

The other player that had a really bad weekend was Miami Dolphins receiver Chad Johnson.  Arrested on a domestic abuse charge, he was released by the team late Sunday night.  New (old) name, same old dumb ass.  What little fantasy value Chad Johnson had, is officially gone now and it will be interesting to see if his career is now over.  So much for that Hall of Fame jacket Chad.

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As for what you should have watched this weekend:

6. St. Louis Rams at Indianapolis Colts

Peyton who?  It looks like Andrew Luck might have a future in football.  He looked pretty damn good against an obviously flawed Rams team, but I won't let that dampen his first professional game.  Luck finished 10/16 for 188 yards and 2 passing touchdowns including a 63 yard score to running back Donald Brown.  Both Andrew Luck and Peyton Manning threw a touchdown on their first ever pass for the Colts...just sayin'.  For St. Louis, Sam Bradford was efficiently unimpressive as he completed 7 of his 9 attempts, but for a paltry 57 yards.  You can't read much into either stat line, but at least Bradford didn't get injured...yet.  Andrew Luck will have plenty of great moments this season and he is bound to look like a rookie at times as well, so don't go too overboard just yet.


5. Washington Nationals at Arizona Diamondbacks

In a series that the Arizona Diamondbacks desperately needed to win, they entered Sunday hoping for a big start from rookie Patrick Corbin just to avoid being swept away.  Stephen Strasburg dominated Arizona on Friday night and a 5 run fifth inning by the Nationals sunk them Saturday night.  Corbin struck out 7 Nationals over seven very effective innings as Arizona ran away from Washington to salvage the final game of the series.  The loss broke the Nationals 8 game winning streak, but they still hold a 4 game lead in the N.L. East.  The Diamondbacks are five games out and in third place in the N.L. West.

4. Oakland Athletics at Chicago White Sox

This series had almost everything you could ask for in a series.  A walk off win, some bad blood, a dominant pitching performance and a player popping his shoulder in after dislocating it and the getting the go ahead hit a half inning later....say what?   Let's slow down and roll back the clock to Friday night.  The Athletics jumped out to a 3-0 lead, but three solo home runs later the game was tied at 3 in the bottom of the ninth.  That's where Jordan Danks hit his 1st career home run, a game winner for the White Sox.  Also that night both Yoenes Cespedes and then later A.J. Pierzynksi were hit by pitches.  Cespedes got hit a bit high, but just took his base like a professional.  Pierzynski who had homered earlier felt the need to stare down Brandon McCarthy the whole way down to 1st like the douche he is.  Sunday saw Chicago starter Chris Sale strike out 11 over 6.2 innings as he helped Chicago cruise to victory.  In between the two White Sox victories, Brandon Inge became a cult hero in Oakland Saturday night.  After blowing a 6-2 lead the Athletics and White Sox were tied at 6 in the bottom of the seventh.  A hot shot down to 3rd was snagged by Inge who dislocated his shoulder on the dive.  He then called time and popped it back into place and stayed in the game.  The White Sox took the lead, but the inning ended on a double play started by Inge.  He then came up in the top of the 8th after Oakland had rallied to tie it at 7 and hit the go ahead single as the Athletics held on to win 9-7.  Although he'll probably end up on the DL, I don't think anyone in Oakland will forget that effort for a long time.

3. Detroit Tigers at Texas Rangers

Detroit must have felt really good about their chances in this series after storming into Texas and taking game one behind a stellar effort from Max Scherzer and a big home run from Prince Fielder.  With Justin Verlander on the mound, the Tigers had a prime opportunity to take the series and look for a sweep.  Verlander did his part with 7 strong innings, but he was matched pitch for pitch (and then some) by Derek Holland.  The game was ended by rookie sensation Mike Olt who singled with two outs in the ninth after a lengthy at bat.  Sunday saw Yu Darvish continue his trend of pitching just well enough to get a win behind the powerful offense of the Rangers.  He threw 120 pitches over 6.2 innings giving up 6 hits, 5 walks and struck out 8 batters, but managed to only give up 3 runs.  Josh Hamilton hit a home run and the Rangers took advantage of some sloppy Detroit defense to pull away and take the series.  The Tigers lost a game in the standings to the White Sox this weekend while the Rangers gained a game on both the Athletics and Angles who each lost their respective series.

2.  PGA Championship

There's nothing like a crowded leader board on the back nine of a Major Championship in golf.  Rory McIlroy was having none of that this weekend.  After John Daly enthralled us on Thursday, he fell out of it with a bad Friday.  Adam Scott suffered the same fate with a poor Friday and couldn't get things rolling on the weekend.  Tiger Woods played very consistently on Friday and actually held the lead going into the weekend.  In years past the tournament would have been over and Tiger would have run away with it.  Well the winner won by a PGA Championship record 8 strokes, but it wasn't Tiger.  Just like he did at the U.S. Open last year, Rory McIlroy looked like Tiger Woods of a decade ago.  Once he got rolling, he didn't stop.  He showed no mercy for his competitors and matched his 8 stroke victory from his only other Major victory.


The comparisons had already started between Woods and McIlroy, but now they will be the only thing spoken about for the rest of the golf season.  Rory has two Major championships at a younger age than was Tiger when he had two.  I assume the question on ESPN will be 'Is there a better chance at Tiger catching Jack Nicklaus in Major victories or Rory catching Tiger (or heaven forbid Jack)?'

1. Men's Olympic Basketball Semis/Finals

Gold or bust.  That was the scenario for the United States once again this Olympics as it has been for at least my entire life, if not more.  2012 marked the 40 year anniversary for one of the darkest, most controversial moments in American Olympic history and it marked the 20 year anniversary of the most dominant team in Olympic history.  There has never really been an in between option for our men's Olympic basketball teams.

On Friday, Spain outlasted a sluggish start to upend Russia to move into the gold medal game.  There they would meet the winner of the U.S. vs. Argentina game.  For the most part the first half of that game was closely contested with the Americans threatening to break away, but being thwarted.  The second half is where the Americans finally put away pesky Argentina once and for all.  They outscored Argentina by 19 points and cruised into Sunday's gold medal game.

Spain is no slouch, led by Pau Gasol, Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka, they have a true NBA front line.  As the game began, it was the 3 point shooting of Juan Carlos Navarro and the rest of Spain that caught the U.S. off guard.  They made seven 3 point baskets in the first half alone and trailed mighty U.S. by just a single point at halftime.  Outside of the barrage of 3's by Spain, the referees were the second most talked about item.  There were 33 total fouls called in the first 20 minutes of play.  Spain's coaching staff made an egregious error by leaving Marc Gasol on the court with three fouls and he picked up his fourth in the second quarter and didn't return until early in the 4th quarter.

Spain deserves credit, though, as even when that time came around the game was still close.  Because of the proficiency from behind the arc, the American defense was stretched out and Pau Gasol took advantage in the second half.  He scored with ease and kept Spain within arms reach until midway through the 4th quarter.  That is where the overall depth of the American squad finally proved too much for Spain.  Kevin Durant led all scorers with 30 points and LeBron James came up with a timely dunk and three point basket late to seal the gold medal.  While it wasn't by blowout fashion a la 1992, the gold is all the same for the 2012 version.

Denzel Washington and 2012 Fantasy Football

Last season I used Clint Eastwood as my muse for my fantasy football preview:  Feel free to read it here.  I had some hits and I had some misses (yeah Chad Ochocinco did not work out), but at least I entertained myself.

I have always enjoyed Denzel Washington movies, but just like my prognostication abilities, he has had his share of flops along with supreme, award winning performances.  He has the rare ability to portray both the hero and the villain and be believed by audiences in either role.  That's why he does it for me.  I'm am glad he doesn't get typecast into one character that he just rehashes with a different plot.  You never know what you will get when you tune in and that's why you keep going back.

It's just like fantasy football (or sports in general), if the story lines were the same year in and year out, we'd get bored and stop watching.  If you knew that the Washington Nationals would have the best record in MLB on August 8th, raise your hand.  If you knew that the Cincinnati Bengals would make the playoffs with Andy Dalton at the helm last season raise your hand.  We don't know and we like it that way.

Here are my thoughts on the upcoming season thanks to Denzel Washington and his fantastic career.

Unstoppable

This movie was about a runaway train and the one team that best resembled that last season was the Green Bay Packers.  Sure they were tripped up in the playoffs, but fantasy football owners could care less about that.  During the regular season the Packers led the NFL with 70 all purpose touchdowns.  To put that in perspective the St. Louis Rams were dead last with only 18 touchdowns.  They were probably a bit too pass heavy which hurt them greatly in the playoffs and maybe, just maybe, we'll see Green Bay scale back their aerial assault and try to work in a running game.

That might be a problem because I don't see an every down running back on their current roster.  Their projected starter, James Starks is currently the 37th fantasy running back in drafts.  There are only 32 teams in the NFL.  Case closed.  I guess nobody expects the Packers to overreact to their playoff failure and prepare themselves for the playoffs by running.  Aaron Rodgers will once again be a fantasy monster and he better for your sake as you'll have to spend a top 5 pick to acquire him.  Anything less than that and you'll lose his value in a very deep position in the NFL.  I'm not a fan of using a pick that high on a quarterback, because there is usually better value later on in your draft.  The wild card on this team (outside of Starks) is Jermichael Finley who I have lauded for years only to be letdown.  He had a good year last year, but I know he can elevate his game to a Rob Gronkowski level with Rodgers throwing to him.  The question is will this be the year?

The Book of Eli

I think we all should be subscribing to The Book of Eli now.  After years of being ignored, Eli Manning finally had his most consistent passing year (which is still a bit inconsistent) and is now being treated like an elite passer.  Not to mention he capped his year off with a second Super Bowl victory, the stars seem to be aligning for him to wriggle out of the shadow of his older brother once and for all.

Gone is the notion of the Giants being a run first (and second) team.  Gone is the heavy footed, waste of space, Brandon Jacobs.  With the emergence of both Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz as speedy, elite wide receivers, New York shifted its focus to keep up with the changing times in the NFL.  They are now pass happy and use the running game as a change of pace.  The Giants had 17 rushing touchdowns last season and their passing game still was very productive with 29 scores.  I do not see any way that New York will score 17 times this season on the ground.  If you take 5 of those scores from running to passing Eli Manning vaults to a top 5 fantasy quarterback.

I'll also play the role of devil's advocate.  Hakeem Nicks is already recovering from an injury.  Maybe Victor Cruz was a flash in the pan.  Without the running game balance maybe the Giants get out of whack.  Maybe Eli returns to his interception happy ways when he had 25 in 2010.  Of course I pegged the Giants as the team most likely to implode last year so maybe I am just biased against them.

Deja Vu

Let me tell about two teams who handle their off season in two completely different ways.  The Washington Redskins have been dubbed the 'winners of the off season' almost every year since Dan Snyder took over.  The New England Patriots are usually very quiet and refuse to make many waves with free agent signings and selling off of their draft picks.  In fact, New England is famous for trading down to acquire more draft picks and cutting their players a year or two before they get too old.  Look at how they are treating Wes Welker.  They are not about to sink a ton of money into a 31 year old slot receiver.  They brought in Brandon Lloyd to supplant him in the near future.  They just reload year in and year out...the right way.

The Redskins have to make the big splash.  The constantly mortgage their future to get the biggest off season prize.  Whether is was Bruce Smith, Deion Sanders, Albert Haynesworth or now (via draft) Robert Griffin III.  As a Redskins fan, I am drooling over RGIII, but I know there is no depth on this team.  The offensive line is already in shambles with their only asset 1 failed drug test away from being out of the NFL.  They couldn't add any more talent because they were caught 'cheating' by the NFL when they circumvented the lack of a salary cap and exiled some bad contracts.  They traded away 3 draft picks for RGIII including a 2nd rounder this year and their next two 1st round picks.  Where will the help come from?  RGIII won't be of much use in a full body cast.

The Patriots are always the deepest team in the NFL.  They plug in backups at every position and still succeed.  Lose Tom Brady in game one? No problem...still 10-6.  Lose a roster full of defensive backs? No problem, throw in a wide receiver...still win the AFC East.  Yes they haven't won a Super Bowl since waaaaay back in 2005 but they have gone twice since and I'd take that if I were a fan.  How does this affect us fantasy owners?  Simple, when was the last time anybody on Washington was relevant for fantasy owners?  Clinton Portis in 2009?  How about for New England...Tom Brady, Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, Brandon Lloyd and now they'll plug in Stevan Ridley at running back and he'll probably be more than successful.  Like Deja Vu all over again.

Man on Fire

Who is the angriest person in the NFL?  Who saw their head coach suspended for the year?  Who had to fight tooth and nail to get a new long term contract after practically saving his franchise?  Drew Brees that's who.  Coming off of one of the greatest single season statistical seasons for a quarterback, Drew Brees has been put through the wringer this off season and it will be interesting to see how he produces.  He also has to face the curse of hosting the Super Bowl this season.  Remember how well that worked out for Dallas two years ago?  There has been plenty of turmoil surrounding this team and I can easily see this team cracking if this go bad early.  An injury here and bad break there (God forbid they lose to the Redskins at home to start the season) and the losses could pile up.

Drew Brees is the consummate on field general, but it has always been Sean Payton that was the straw that stirred the proverbial drink in New Orleans.  Without him around the team this year I expect some more inconsistencies.  The 46/14 TD/INT split for Brees might slip to 38/17.  Not drastic, but enough to drop him down a notch.  The wide receiver position in New Orleans has always been a tough one for fantasy owners. Sure they throw the ball a ton, but the Saints spread the ball around well.  Marques Colston is not special, but he's consistent.  Lance Moore and Devery Henderson have shown flashes and will have chances again this season with the departure of Robert Meachem.  The big break out star of the passing game was tight end Jimmy Graham.  He again will look to lead the team in all receiving categories and I don't see why he can't.  He has the perfect mix and speed and size and great hands.  I have him as my #1 tight end over Gronkowski because I think the Patriots will diversify their offense even more just to mess with us.

The running game is an interesting puzzle.  Darren Sproles had 87 rushing attempts and 86 receptions.  Pierre Thomas and Mark Ingram combined for 1000 yards and 10 touchdowns on the ground, but I expect Ingram to get a bit more work as the younger player this season.  If he can stay healthy I can see 900 yards and 9 touchdowns from him.  All three will be drafted and all three will have great games, but I see Pierre Thomas dropping off the radar by season's end.

Remember the Titans

This should be entitled 'Remember Chris Johnson?' or 'Remember Kenny Britt?'.  Two of the bigger busts at their respective positions last season, both are looking to rebound.  After holding out for a new contract last season, CJ2K came into 2011 a step slow and it cost him dearly.  He had a couple of breakout games, but those were against some pretty bad defenses.  Kenny Britt started out on fire, but a torn ACL ruined his season.  Then he went out and got arrested AGAIN this off season so he is not only facing league penalties, but physical limitations as well.

At quarterback, Jake Locker looks to replace the aging Matt Hasselsuck...err beck this season.  He was okay in his brief stint as starter last year and will need to make big strides to make this team relevant to fantasy owners.  If he can prove to be a average thrower and keep defenses from crowding the line of scrimmage, not only will his job be easier by handing off to Chris Johnson more, but Johnson could return to elite status in the fantasy world.

It also doesn't hurt that the Titans play in the least talented division in the NFL.  While Houston is a contender, both Indianapolis and Jacksonville have major question marks.  Four games against them will be good news for a young team trying to find its way.  Chris Johnson is the only player worth spending a high draft pick on, but there are others to keep an eye on including Nate Washington and Jared Cook who are both dependent on a good passing game.

He Got Game

The story about a young basketball star with dreams of greatness.  Each year the fantasy world is smitten with dreams of rookies being the next greatest thing.  I play in a keeper league in addition to a normal redraft league so it is doubly important to decide right away whether to invest in 1st year players or not.  I have never been a big fan of drafting any rookies, no matter the position.  More than not this will be a sound strategy, but every once in a while you'll miss out on a late round draft pick future stud.

Take A.J. Green for example.  He proved to be a very good #2 wide receiver on a fantasy team with the upside of being an elite #1 receiver.  I thought Andy Dalton would hinder his rookie numbers, but they worked quite well as a tandem.  If they progress, Cincinnati could all of a sudden be full of quality fantasy options.

This season all the talk surround Trent Richardson in Cleveland and the aforementioned RGIII in Washington.  The Browns offense expects to be centered around Richardson, but he is already hurting and according to reports scheduled to visit Dr. James Andrews to look as his knee.  The Redskins hopes this season and the next decade rest on the right shoulder and sprinters legs of RGIII.  He might not be Cam Newton this year, but he should be a viable backup/injury replacement quarterback and a definite must own in keeper leagues.

Outside of those two there are two running backs that will be vying for touches and could emerge as starters sooner rather than later.  Doug Martin in Tampa Bay and David Wilson in New York (Giants) are both listed as the backups for their respective team, but both LeGarrette Blount and Ahmad Bradshaw have injury and performance concerns.  They could give fantasy owners the best bang for the buck because neither are guaranteed 20+ touches a game, but will certainly be the first option when the starter goes down.

I am not going to endorse Justin Blackmon this season.  He seems to be in the mold of Dez Bryant as a talented on the field player and a pain in the ass off the field.  He will go way too high to be entrusted in drafting this season.  No value for the pick.  If you are going to take a flier on a rookie wide receiver I say look in the direction of Brian Quick in St. Louis or Alshon Jefferey in Chicago.

Dare I forget to mention Andrew Luck.  He has some talent around him and plays in the weak AFC South, but I think he will be at least a year away from a starter for fantasy owners.  Now a keeper league will be different as he will be a must own if you can afford to stash him away for a season.

Fallen

On the other side of the ledger is fantasy heroes of seasons past.  Of the projected top 200 fantasy players this year, at least 20 won't be spoken of by seasons end or ever again.  It may not be so sudden for everyone, but each year brings a new crop of youngsters looking to take the place of an aging veteran.  Ryan Mathews excused LaDanian Tomlinson in San Diego and Andrew Luck has replaced Peyton Manning in Indianapolis.  It happens to everyone.

My number one pick for this list is Frank Gore.  It will be difficult to watch him decline this year.  He was so good to me in 2009, but with Brandon Jacobs, Kendall Hunter and LaMichael James all in line to lessen his workload, Gore will no longer be worthy of anything more than a flex player by mid season.  His last 100 yard rushing game was in Week 9 last year as he averaged only 54 yards per game and scored only 3 touchdowns in the 2nd half of the 2011 season.  San Francisco has already announced their plans to use the other three backs more and Gore less, so don't say I didn't warn you.

At quarterback I have lost faith in 'Big' Ben Roethlisberger.  What made him so good for his first 7 years started taking a toll last season.  He is only 30 but his body is that of a 37 year old.  He has nursed so many different injuries that I'm not sure he can be elite again.  He had only five 2+ touchdown games last year while having four games of 0 touchdowns.  That leaves seven games with just a single touchdown pass and that won't cut it nowadays.  He is more than due to miss a couple games this season and the Steelers should start grooming a replacement.

The story looks to be the same for Baltimore Ravens wide receive Anquan Boldin.  In the final 8 Ravens games, Boldin didn't top 63 yards receiving, scored only one touchdown and missed two games.  That's not good.  The one saving grace for Boldin is there aren't too many options to replace him.  Outside of fellow starter Torrey Smith, only Jacoby Jones looks to take some catches away from him.  Of course Ray Rice will get his share of receptions and whoever emerges between Ed Dickson and Dennis Pitta at tight end could be valuable, but this should be the last hurrah for Boldin.

Philadelphia

What to make of the dynasty in the making in eastern Pennsylvania?  The Eagles can be so dominating and so lost all in the same game.  There is far too much talent to not expect them to excel this season, but questions still exist.  Can Michael Vick stay healthy?  Is DeSean Jackson done being a head case?  Is LeSean McCoy ready to be the best running back in the NFL?  Will Andy Reid's head be in it this season?

Let's go down the list: No Michael Vick cannot stay healthy.  He will miss a game or two or more and that is a problem for not only his owners, but the owners of all the Eagles.  As Vick goes, so goes Jeremy Maclin, Brent Celek and Jackson.  At least you won't have to waste a 1st round pick on Vick this season.  If he drops in your draft to the 3rd or 4th round he might be worth the trouble.

Yes I believe DeSean Jackson's antics are behind him.  He can easily bounce back and prove he's the game breaker we all thought he'd be last year.  I certainly hope he learned from his childish mistakes last year and I'm willing to take him as my #2 wide receiver, but not my top one.

LeSean McCoy was asked to run more and catch less last year and that turned him into a fantasy stud.  It was the only thing lacking in his game and fantasy owners never thought the Eagles would commit to the run enough, but that was proven wrong.  Now as a true dual threat, we know that if you need a 30 carry, 185 yard, 2 touchdown effort (2011) he can do that.  If you need an 8 catch, 86 yard, 1 touchdown performance (2010) he can do that too.  Now if he happens to combine the two in a week...well draft him with confidence folks.

You have to feel for Andy Reid.  He recently lost his eldest son and has already returned to practice.  His family issues have been well documented and that along with the normal issues of coaching in Philadelphia for  13 years its amazing he has been able to hold it together.  Eventually it has to add up and start to distract him doesn't it?  If he is able to guide the Eagles to the playoffs this year, it may be his best coaching effort to date.

The Mighty Quinn

This is where I would have talked about Brady Quinn leading the Cleveland Browns to glory...but he sucks so I'll move on.  You missed out Brady...you missed out.

Glory

Perhaps Denzel Washington's preeminent performance of his career (I did not care as much for Training Day) I will now try and pick a couple of guys who are set to break out this year with their own best performance.

At quarterback I'm going back to the well of Josh Freeman.  Sure many thought the same last season, but apparently the player/coach dynamic under Raheem Morris was how do you say...not good.  With new weapons including Vincent Jackson, Dallas Clark and Doug Martin he is a prime candidate for a bounce back season.  Will he be good enough to crack the top 10 in the same mold of Matthew Stafford last season...hmmm...maybe.  He needs to continue to add the element of running into his bag of tricks as he scored four rushing touchdowns in 2011...up that to seven and now we're talking.

A nice late round back could be Donald Brown in Indianapolis.  Even though the Colts are expected to struggle, they still will run the ball and Brown has been elevated to the starter.  There is no way that Indianapolis will have Andrew Luck throw the ball 40 times a game.  They should be much more balanced than they ever were under Peyton Manning.  Brown had 645 yards rushing and five touchdowns in only 12 games in a completely lost season in 2011 so why not expect a 900 yard, 7 touchdown effort this year?  That wouldn't be too shabby for somebody being drafted as the 38th overall running back currently.

Wide receiver is the most difficult position to guess a breakout star in my opinion because almost anyone can do it with the right opportunity.  I would have need 50 guesses at least for Victor Cruz so here goes nothing. I'm picking Denarius Moore from the Oakland Raiders.  Why not?  I think Carson Palmer still has a couple of bullets left in his gun and with young, emerging wide receivers in Moore and Darrius Heyward-Bey its only a matter of time for the Raiders to show some promise.  When on the field, Moore made plays and that is all you can ask from a wide receiver.  He scored 5 touchdowns on only 33 receptions and averaged nearly 19 yards a catch.  The skill is there, the opportunity is there and a full year of Palmer is there.  If he stays healthy he can hit 1,000 yards and 8 touchdowns easy.