Third time is the charm, right? After swinging and missing last year with a Houston over Atlanta Super Bowl, I'm back with another 72% guaranteed accurate prediction of the upcoming NFL season. I'll predict every game, a bunch of break outs and flops, your future MVP and of course the winner of the first ever outdoor Super Bowl in a cold weather climate.
Seeing as my XBOX is currently covered in dust due to lack of use, I was resorted to breaking out my old Patriots vs Bears Super Bowl XX Electric Football Game and simulate the games while listening to that awful buzzing sound. Basically, I started playing these games in early March and I have just now finished them. Now although my all too early prediction from my post in February didn't come true exactly this go around, I was close. I do know that the editors at ESPN the Magazine read my blog as their prediction of Denver over Seattle matched mine although they were 6 months late. The only thing that kept Seattle from advancing in my mind during my simulation was the injury to Percy Harvin. They'll drop a game that they shouldn't have forcing them to play on the road in the playoffs.
Here are some predictions for the season:
Break out candidates - T.Y. Hilton who finally emerges as the #1 receiver in Indianapolis over personal favorite Reggie Wayne. Daryl Richardson who will either be the next Alfred Morris or Donald Brown making me look smart or costing me two fantasy leagues. Ben Tate who takes over as the primary back in Houston in the 2nd half due to fatigue/injury concerns with Arian Foster. Dwayne Bowe has been waiting for an offense like the one Andy Reid will compose. He becomes a Pro Bowl starter if there is a Pro Bowl anymore.
Busts - C.J. Spiller becomes the latest top talent on a bad team to suffer an early season ending injury. Vincent Jackson doesn't come close to his 2012 numbers mainly due to the lack of progression in the career of quarterback Josh Freeman who gets benched for a short spell mid-season. DeSean Jackson wears out his welcome with the new Eagles coaching staff by sleeping through yet another team meeting and is relegated to 2nd string down the stretch. Carson Palmer suffers behind the worst offensive line in the NFL for the second year in a row (Oakland was horrid in 2012) and doesn't make it through the season upright.
Regular season MVP: Colin Kaepernick narrowly edging out Peyton Manning
Here are you 2013 NFL Standings:
NFC EAST
Washington Redskins 10-6
New York Giants 9-7
Dallas Cowboys 8-8
Philadelphia Eagles 7-9
NFC NORTH
Detroit Lions 11-5
Green Bay Packers 10-6
Chicago Bears 7-9
Minnesota Vikings 5-11
NFC SOUTH
Atlanta Falcons 12-4
New Orleans Saints 11-5
Carolina Panthers 7-9
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5-11
NFC WEST
San Francisco 49ers 12-4
Seattle Seahawks 11-5
St. Louis Rams 9-7
Arizona Cardinals 2-14
AFC EAST
New England Patriots 13-3
Miami Dolphins 6-10
New York Jets 3-13
Buffalo Bills 3-13
AFC NORTH
Cincinnati Bengals 11-5
Pittsburgh Steelers 9-7
Baltimore Ravens 8-8
Cleveland Browns 8-8
AFC SOUTH
Indianapolis Colts 13-3
Houston Texans 11-5
Tennessee Titans 5-11
Jacksonville Jaguars 4-12
AFC WEST
Denver Broncos 12-4
Kansas City Chiefs 10-6
Oakland Raiders 3-13
San Diego Chargers 2-14
Playoffs:
NFC
1. San Francisco
2. Atlanta
3. Detroit
4. Washington
5. New Orleans
6. Seattle
Wild Card Round:
Seattle over Detroit
Washington over New Orleans
Divisional Round:
San Francisco over Seattle
Atlanta over Washington
NFC Championship:
Atlanta over San Francisco
AFC
1. New England
2. Indianapolis
3. Denver
4. Cincinnati
5. Houston
6. Kansas City
Wild Card Round:
Denver over Kansas City
Houston over Cincinnati
Divisional Round:
New England over Houston
Denver over Indianapolis
AFC Championship:
Denver over New England
Super Bowl:
Denver over Atlanta 27-20; Peyton Manning MVP 24-33 285 yards 2 TD's, 0 INT's and he retires on top.
Showing posts with label eagles. Show all posts
Showing posts with label eagles. Show all posts
Monday, September 2, 2013
Monday, February 4, 2013
NFL Recap
Congratulations to the Baltimore Ravens on winning the Super Bowl over the San Francisco 49ers. Whether you doubt the legality of having injured superstars Ray Lewis and Terrell Suggs back so soon or not, the Ravens will go down in history as champions. The 49ers franchise suffered their first ever loss in the Super Bowl after five victories, but Colin Kaepernick looks to give them a shot at getting back there again.
I did my 2nd annual NFL Crystal Ball right before the season and now it is time to see how I did.
1st prediction was that RGIII would play in 16 games. Correct!! Yeah, yeah he missed a game, but played in a playoff game so 16 games it was.
2nd prediction that Norv Turner wouldn't make it as head coach of the Chargers past their Bye Week in Week 7. 1/2 points! He was dead coach walking by that time and was finally fired after the season.
Standings Predictions: (actual records in parenthesis)
NFC East
Philadelphia Eagles 12-4 (4-12)
Dallas Cowboys 10-6 (8-8)
New York Giants 9-7 (9-7)
Washington Redskins 6-10 (10-6)
NFC North
Green Bay Packers 14-2 (11-5)
Chicago Bears 11-5 (10-6)
Detroit Lions 8-8 (4-12)
Minnesota Vikings 4-12 (10-6)
NFC South
Atlanta Falcons 13-3 (13-3)
New Orleans Saints 10-6 (7-9)
Carolina Panthers 7-9 (7-9)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3-13 (7-9)
NFC West
San Francisco 49ers 11-5 (11-4-1)
Seattle Seahawks 5-11 (11-5)
St. Louis Rams 5-11 (7-8-1)
Arizona Cardinals 4-12 (5-11)
AFC East
New England Patriots 13-3 (12-4)
New York Jets 10-6 (6-10)
Buffalo Bills 6-10 (6-10)
Miami Dolphins 6-10 (7-9)
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens 12-4 (10-6)
Pittsburgh Steelers 9-7 (8-8)
Cincinnati Bengals 9-7 (10-6)
Cleveland Browns 2-14 (5-11)
AFC South
Houston Texans 12-4 (12-4)
Tennessee Titans 7-9 (6-10)
Indianapolis Colts 6-10 (11-5)
Jacksonville Jaguars 2-14 (2-14)
AFC West
Denver Broncos 11-5 (13-3)
Oakland Raiders 8-8 (4-12)
Kansas City Chiefs 7-9 (2-14)
San Diego Chargers 4-12 (7-9)
Hit and miss obviously. I did get 7 of the 8 division winners correct missing only my Washington Redskins. Biggest misses were the Philadelphia Eagles and Seattle Seahawks in the NFC and Kansas City Chiefs and both the New York Jets and Indianapolis Colts in the AFC.
I predicted Tom Brady to win the MVP over Matt Ryan and while they both had good seasons it was Adrian Peterson who won the award over Peyton Manning. Two huge injury risks heading into the season somehow not only managed to stay healthy, but perform well beyond expectations. Deer antler spray for everyone!!!
In my Suprises/Breakouts section I chose:
Jake Locker- 2/10 Locker played in just 11 games and totaled 11 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. A mid-season injury derailed any possibility at building upon a promising finish to the 2011 season.
Jeremy Maclin- 6/10 A good bounce back season for Maclin who still produced as the city of Philadelphia was burning down around him. He still didn't match the 2010 season though.
Donald Brown- 0/10 Ugh. I hitched my ride to him this season and was burnt badly. After 3 years of steady progression, Brown took a major step backwards in his now fledgling career.
Torrey Smith- 4/10 Even with 15 more targets than last season, Smith's numbers were practically identical to 2011. He continues to be high risk/high reward for fantasy owners.
Vernon Davis- 1/10 It took until the playoffs to see the 49ers finally use Davis properly, but he was a major fantasy disappointment all regular season.
In my Disappointments section I chose:
Maurice Jones-Drew- 10/10 When will RB's learn not to hold out. MJD suffered through a terrible season all stemming back to not being at practice.
Ryan Mathews- 9/10 He started injured, ended injured and didn't do much in between scoring just once in a forgettable season.
Vincent Jackson- 0/10 A new team rejuvenated Jackson who had a career high in receiving yardage and caught 8 touchdowns...oops!
Victor Cruz- 4/10 His receiving yardage dropped by nearly 500 yards, but he still hauled in 10 touchdowns which was one more than last year.
Matthew Stafford- 8/10 His TD's were cut in half while throwing one more INT than last year. He still threw for nearly 5,000 useless yards.
The Playoffs:
I went 7/12 (all division winners) and missed both Super Bowl participants (Houston over Atlanta in mine).
Not horrible, but not great.
The emergence of Colin Kaepernick, RGIII and Russell Wilson to how the quarterback position is played is what I will take away from this season. All three did things that I didn't think were possible while pocket passers like Brady, Brees and Manning still produced big numbers. It's a special era we're witnessing for quarterback play. The quarterback position will be DEEP in fantasy football next season...wait, wait and wait for one to fall.
Early prediction for Super Bowl 48 that will probably change by September: Denver over Seattle as Manning pulls off a Ray Lewis and rides off into the sunset on top.
I did my 2nd annual NFL Crystal Ball right before the season and now it is time to see how I did.
1st prediction was that RGIII would play in 16 games. Correct!! Yeah, yeah he missed a game, but played in a playoff game so 16 games it was.
2nd prediction that Norv Turner wouldn't make it as head coach of the Chargers past their Bye Week in Week 7. 1/2 points! He was dead coach walking by that time and was finally fired after the season.
Standings Predictions: (actual records in parenthesis)
NFC East
Philadelphia Eagles 12-4 (4-12)
Dallas Cowboys 10-6 (8-8)
New York Giants 9-7 (9-7)
Washington Redskins 6-10 (10-6)
NFC North
Green Bay Packers 14-2 (11-5)
Chicago Bears 11-5 (10-6)
Detroit Lions 8-8 (4-12)
Minnesota Vikings 4-12 (10-6)
NFC South
Atlanta Falcons 13-3 (13-3)
New Orleans Saints 10-6 (7-9)
Carolina Panthers 7-9 (7-9)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3-13 (7-9)
NFC West
San Francisco 49ers 11-5 (11-4-1)
Seattle Seahawks 5-11 (11-5)
St. Louis Rams 5-11 (7-8-1)
Arizona Cardinals 4-12 (5-11)
AFC East
New England Patriots 13-3 (12-4)
New York Jets 10-6 (6-10)
Buffalo Bills 6-10 (6-10)
Miami Dolphins 6-10 (7-9)
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens 12-4 (10-6)
Pittsburgh Steelers 9-7 (8-8)
Cincinnati Bengals 9-7 (10-6)
Cleveland Browns 2-14 (5-11)
AFC South
Houston Texans 12-4 (12-4)
Tennessee Titans 7-9 (6-10)
Indianapolis Colts 6-10 (11-5)
Jacksonville Jaguars 2-14 (2-14)
AFC West
Denver Broncos 11-5 (13-3)
Oakland Raiders 8-8 (4-12)
Kansas City Chiefs 7-9 (2-14)
San Diego Chargers 4-12 (7-9)
Hit and miss obviously. I did get 7 of the 8 division winners correct missing only my Washington Redskins. Biggest misses were the Philadelphia Eagles and Seattle Seahawks in the NFC and Kansas City Chiefs and both the New York Jets and Indianapolis Colts in the AFC.
I predicted Tom Brady to win the MVP over Matt Ryan and while they both had good seasons it was Adrian Peterson who won the award over Peyton Manning. Two huge injury risks heading into the season somehow not only managed to stay healthy, but perform well beyond expectations. Deer antler spray for everyone!!!
In my Suprises/Breakouts section I chose:
Jake Locker- 2/10 Locker played in just 11 games and totaled 11 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. A mid-season injury derailed any possibility at building upon a promising finish to the 2011 season.
Jeremy Maclin- 6/10 A good bounce back season for Maclin who still produced as the city of Philadelphia was burning down around him. He still didn't match the 2010 season though.
Donald Brown- 0/10 Ugh. I hitched my ride to him this season and was burnt badly. After 3 years of steady progression, Brown took a major step backwards in his now fledgling career.
Torrey Smith- 4/10 Even with 15 more targets than last season, Smith's numbers were practically identical to 2011. He continues to be high risk/high reward for fantasy owners.
Vernon Davis- 1/10 It took until the playoffs to see the 49ers finally use Davis properly, but he was a major fantasy disappointment all regular season.
In my Disappointments section I chose:
Maurice Jones-Drew- 10/10 When will RB's learn not to hold out. MJD suffered through a terrible season all stemming back to not being at practice.
Ryan Mathews- 9/10 He started injured, ended injured and didn't do much in between scoring just once in a forgettable season.
Vincent Jackson- 0/10 A new team rejuvenated Jackson who had a career high in receiving yardage and caught 8 touchdowns...oops!
Victor Cruz- 4/10 His receiving yardage dropped by nearly 500 yards, but he still hauled in 10 touchdowns which was one more than last year.
Matthew Stafford- 8/10 His TD's were cut in half while throwing one more INT than last year. He still threw for nearly 5,000 useless yards.
The Playoffs:
I went 7/12 (all division winners) and missed both Super Bowl participants (Houston over Atlanta in mine).
Not horrible, but not great.
The emergence of Colin Kaepernick, RGIII and Russell Wilson to how the quarterback position is played is what I will take away from this season. All three did things that I didn't think were possible while pocket passers like Brady, Brees and Manning still produced big numbers. It's a special era we're witnessing for quarterback play. The quarterback position will be DEEP in fantasy football next season...wait, wait and wait for one to fall.
Early prediction for Super Bowl 48 that will probably change by September: Denver over Seattle as Manning pulls off a Ray Lewis and rides off into the sunset on top.
Monday, October 1, 2012
Weekend Viewing Recap 9/30/12
The more things change, the more they stay the same. That's the old saying, but I'm saying that in the sports world, that's a bunch of crap. Nothing was predictable this weekend. Absolutely nothing. On a scale of 1-10 this weekend was eleventy billion on drama, excitement and awesomeness.
Here are some things not covered by my Top 10:
RGIII and the Redskins finding a way to win with kicker Billy Cundiff saving his job on a last second field goal
The Atlanta Falcons pulling victory out of defeat with a last second drive to stay undefeated against the Carolina Panthers
The Green Bay Packers getting screwed by another set of officials, but surviving at home sending New Orleans to an 0-4 start.
The University of Texas outlasting Oklahoma St. on the road with a last minute touchdown run.
The University of Georgia combining with Tennessee to score 88 points in the first 3 quarters before running out of steam and only scoring 7 in the final 15 minutes with Georgia hanging on between the hedges.
The University of Nebraska winning a close game against Wisconsin despite being forced to wear Scrabble tiles for uniforms.
Homer Bailey of the Cincinnati Reds throwing a no hitter against the Pittsburgh Pirates matching the MLB record of 7 total no hitters pitched in a single season.
Outside of that, nothing much else happened...but I'll still cover the 10 things I was watching this weekend:
10. #14 Ohio St. Buckeyes at #20 Michigan St. Spartans
7-3 at the half. Yup, another riveting Big 10 game. I don't give a damn that it ended up being a 1 point game the two teams were a combined 10-28 on third downs. They couldn't sustain a drive to save their lives. The 3rd quarter was the only watchable quarter where *gasp* 20 whole points were scored. Defensive dominance?? No. More like putrid, slow, outdated offenses. The worst part about it is that Ohio St. won to stay undefeated meaning the Big 10 will still stay on the radar for another couple of weeks.
9. Miami Dolphins at Arizona Cardinals
Beware of the trap games. I tried to warn everyone that this looked too good to be true for Arizona. Everything was in their favor and it took Kevin Kolb pulling a rabbit out of the hat to survive. Miami held a 13-0 lead into the 3rd quarter when Arizona finally woke up putting together 14 consecutive points to take a lead. It lasted just over two minutes. Brian Hartline caught an 80 yard touchdown pass en route to 253 yards receiving while collecting dust on my fantasy football bench. Arizona answered back, scoring the game tying touchdown with only :22 left. In overtime, Jay Feely blasted a game winning 46 yard field goal to keep the Cardinals undefeated heading into their prime time, nationally televised game on the Thursday night against the St. Louis Rams. I had the game being 20-17 Arizona and it finished 24-21...not too shabby.
8. A.L. Central Race (Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins & Tampa Bay Rays at Chicago White Sox)
Ding dong the White Sox are dead...almost. After a very promising start to the weekend with Detroit losing and Chicago winning Friday night, it was all down hill for the White Sox the rest of the way. Chicago was shut down as the Tampa Bay Rays rolled out Matt Moore and David Price who combined to give up just 2 runs in 12.1 innings. The Minnesota Twins didn't help Chicago either against Detroit as Justin Verlander dominated them on Saturday and Prince Fielder hit a go ahead 2 run home run in the 8th inning Sunday. This leaves the A.L. Central exactly as I predicted at a 3 game spread with 3 to go. Get the champagne ready Detroit.
7. Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinals
In a potential playoff preview, the Washington Nationals continued to show some cracks in the mighty exterior against a quality opponent. Their starting pitching struggled (Edwin Jackson and Ross Detwiler gave up 16 runs, 11 earned in just 4 total innings) and when Jordan Zimmermann actually gave them a good start, Drew Storen blew a 9th inning lead. The Nationals survived in the Storen game, but they lost 2 of 3 and are now 7-9 in their last 16 games. Because the Dodgers swept the Rockies while giving up just 1 run all weekend, the Cardinals didn't clinch a playoff spot and the Nationals are still stuck with a magic number of 1 because the Braves won 2 of 3 against the Mets. Washington welcomes Philadelphia to D.C. with the champagne still on ice while St. Louis plays their main rival, the Cincinnati Reds to end the regular season with the playoff hopes on the line.
6. #25 Baylor Bears at #9 West Virginia Mountaineers
There were no rational words to describe this game. The scoring came easier than {insert racy, adult joke here}. 133 total points. I pray to God you all bet the over. Each team scored double digits in each quarter except the 3rd where Baylor only mustered 7 points. Luckily West Virginia scored 21. It was 35-35 at the half thanks to your average, run of the mill 67 yard (non Hail Mary) touchdown pass on the final play of the second quarter. You name an offensive record and it was probably broken. I had predicted the score to be 38-27, but I forgot that they play two halves and not just one in the Big 12. Geno Smith, the quarterback for the Mountaineers, made his Heisman statement by going 45-51 for 656 yards (not a typo), 8 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. He also added 31 yards on the ground, but who is counting? He now has 20 passing touchdowns and only 28 INCOMPLETIONS on the season with no interceptions. That's absurd. Nick Florence did his best to keep pace for Baylor throwing for 581 yards, 5 touchdowns and rushing for a score as well, but the Bears ran out of time. Somewhere between this and what the Big 10 produces is good, quality college football. (Hint: its called the SEC).
5. New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
For more than half of this game, it looked as though Buffalo was ready to take control of the AFC East and put a boot to the throats of the Patriots. Then reality set in. New England reeled off 35 straight points after falling behind 21-7 in about 13 minutes of game time. In all the Patriots scorched the Bills for 45 second half points and climbed back to 2-2 along with Buffalo by winning 52-28. My score of 27-20 New England was spot on if the game had ended after the 1st minute of play in the 4th quarter. Somehow I keep underestimating the quality of offenses and the lack of defense in both college and pro football. Not only did New England get 340 yards passing and 3 touchdowns from Tom Brady, but they had two running backs (Stevan Ridley and Brandon Bolden) eclipse 100 yards while scoring three times total. Buffalo had both of their running backs (Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller) quasi-healthy for the game, but they were held in check rushing for only 62 total yards on 21 carries.
4. New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles
What started out as a snooze fest, turned into another dramatic, down to the last play, controversial ending, classic NFC East grudge match. The keys for Philadelphia (per me) was to involve LeSean McCoy more and he had 26 touches for 140 yards. Michael Vick didn't turn the ball over and since both of my two keys came true it only meant that the Eagles were destined to win a close game. Down by just a point late in the 4th quarter, the Eagles were forced to settle for a field goal after having a 1st and goal. This left just under 2 minutes to play and Eli Manning with yet another chance to win a game late. Thanks to a very, very questionable pass interference call, the Giants moved to within field goal range with only seconds to play. That didn't stop them from taking one last shot to the end zone, but Manning under threw the receiver and he was forced to tackle Nnamdi Asomugha for offensive pass interference. The Giants were now forced into attempting a 54 yard field goal which they missed. But wait...Andy Reid called a timeout. The Giants got a second chance and this time the kick split the uprights, but fell two yards short. The Eagles won 19-17 which was kind of close to my 27-26 prediction.
3. A.L. West Race/Wild Card (Seattle Mariners at Oakland Athletics & Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers)
Both of these series were incredible. The Athletics took care of business easily on Friday night, but looked to be dead in the water on Saturday. Heading into the 8th inning they trailed Seattle 4-1 and the half empty (shocker) O.co Coliseum crown was listless. They scored a run in that inning, but the rally was squashed when the potential third run was gunned down at the plate. But the 9th inning in Oakland is when the magic begins for these Athletics. After a walk to Josh Reddick, Josh Donaldson hit a game tying 2 run homer and in the 10th inning, Brandon Moss hit the game winning 3 run homer to give Oakland its 14th walk off victory of the season. Sunday saw the Athletics hit two more home runs in the 8th inning to break open a 2-2 tie to sweep the Mariners. In Texas, the Angels survived a late rally to win game one of their series. Saturday was rained out forcing the two teams to play a double header on Sunday. The Rangers were an out away from evening the series at a game apiece when Torii Hunter smashed a two run double and the Angels won game two in dramatic fashion. Game 3 was more of the same at the start as the Angels raced out to a 4-0 lead. The Rangers were staring at a one game lead heading to Oakland, but rallied to score the next 8 runs. Los Angeles hit a 3 run homer to close the gap to 8-7, but that was all she wrote. Texas goes into Oakland needing just one win to clinch the West while Oakland needs a win or a loss by both Tampa Bay and Los Angeles to clinch a playoff berth. With the Rangers win, they are in the playoffs as are the Orioles and Yankees.
2. A.L. East Race (Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles & New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays)
So I called for the Orioles to sweep the Red Sox. Yup. So I called for the Yankees to take two of three from the Blue Jays (after losing game one of the 4 game set Thursday). Yup. Nailed it. Baltimore and New York are tied atop the A.L East (and Wild Card #1 for the matter) with only three games left. Baltimore has by far the tougher road as they go to Tampa Bay for their games, although they will miss both David Price and Matt Moore. The Yankees get to head home and welcome the horrid Red Sox to town. Now nothing would make Boston fans somewhat happier than watching the Red Sox cost New York a division crown, but I don't know if the players on the field have enough talent to even make it close. Their heart may be in it, but the current Red Sox suck to put it bluntly. They have lost 9 of 10 as they limp to the end of a disastrous season. As much as it pains me to do so, I think the Yankees win the division outright by a game as Baltimore has to settle for a one game playoff against (probably Oakland) someone.
1. The Ryder Cup
I don't think even the most talented writer would be able to piece enough glorious prose together to give what actually happened justice. To put it simply, the USA got beat by the better team in remarkable fashion. After the first two days, the Americans held a very commanding 10-6 lead. Only once (in 1999) had either side come back to win on Sunday when trailing by 4 points or more. That lead was 10-6 for Europe and the Americans made a outrageous comeback on home soil. This time, with the tables turned, but still on American soil, nobody gave Europe much of a chance to win away from home. The strategy that was employed by captain Jose Maria Olazabal was to put his best players out first to try and quiet the raucous crowd. It worked perfectly. The Europeans won the first four matches out of the gate and the score was even at 10. Since Europe had won the previous Cup they only needed 14 total points to retain it, while the Americans needed 14 1/2 to win it. The next two groups split victories to keep the score knotted at 11. The Americans took a 12-11 lead, but Europe erased that quickly winning two straight and took their first lead of the weekend 13-12. All they needed was one more point. It wasn't going to come easy as Jason Dufner won to tie the score at 13. It came down to the final two matches and with Europe leading in one and trailing in the other things were looking good for them. American Steve Stricker holed a par putt to force Martin Kaymer to sink a six foot putt to win and that's just what he did. It was an epic collapse, but the tension was unmatched. I had predicted a 16-12 American victory and that's how it should have happened, but sports doesn't work that way. Win, lose or draw that's the way I like them.
Here are some things not covered by my Top 10:
RGIII and the Redskins finding a way to win with kicker Billy Cundiff saving his job on a last second field goal
The Atlanta Falcons pulling victory out of defeat with a last second drive to stay undefeated against the Carolina Panthers
The Green Bay Packers getting screwed by another set of officials, but surviving at home sending New Orleans to an 0-4 start.
The University of Texas outlasting Oklahoma St. on the road with a last minute touchdown run.
The University of Georgia combining with Tennessee to score 88 points in the first 3 quarters before running out of steam and only scoring 7 in the final 15 minutes with Georgia hanging on between the hedges.
The University of Nebraska winning a close game against Wisconsin despite being forced to wear Scrabble tiles for uniforms.
Homer Bailey of the Cincinnati Reds throwing a no hitter against the Pittsburgh Pirates matching the MLB record of 7 total no hitters pitched in a single season.
Outside of that, nothing much else happened...but I'll still cover the 10 things I was watching this weekend:
10. #14 Ohio St. Buckeyes at #20 Michigan St. Spartans
7-3 at the half. Yup, another riveting Big 10 game. I don't give a damn that it ended up being a 1 point game the two teams were a combined 10-28 on third downs. They couldn't sustain a drive to save their lives. The 3rd quarter was the only watchable quarter where *gasp* 20 whole points were scored. Defensive dominance?? No. More like putrid, slow, outdated offenses. The worst part about it is that Ohio St. won to stay undefeated meaning the Big 10 will still stay on the radar for another couple of weeks.
9. Miami Dolphins at Arizona Cardinals
Beware of the trap games. I tried to warn everyone that this looked too good to be true for Arizona. Everything was in their favor and it took Kevin Kolb pulling a rabbit out of the hat to survive. Miami held a 13-0 lead into the 3rd quarter when Arizona finally woke up putting together 14 consecutive points to take a lead. It lasted just over two minutes. Brian Hartline caught an 80 yard touchdown pass en route to 253 yards receiving while collecting dust on my fantasy football bench. Arizona answered back, scoring the game tying touchdown with only :22 left. In overtime, Jay Feely blasted a game winning 46 yard field goal to keep the Cardinals undefeated heading into their prime time, nationally televised game on the Thursday night against the St. Louis Rams. I had the game being 20-17 Arizona and it finished 24-21...not too shabby.
8. A.L. Central Race (Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins & Tampa Bay Rays at Chicago White Sox)
Ding dong the White Sox are dead...almost. After a very promising start to the weekend with Detroit losing and Chicago winning Friday night, it was all down hill for the White Sox the rest of the way. Chicago was shut down as the Tampa Bay Rays rolled out Matt Moore and David Price who combined to give up just 2 runs in 12.1 innings. The Minnesota Twins didn't help Chicago either against Detroit as Justin Verlander dominated them on Saturday and Prince Fielder hit a go ahead 2 run home run in the 8th inning Sunday. This leaves the A.L. Central exactly as I predicted at a 3 game spread with 3 to go. Get the champagne ready Detroit.
7. Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinals
In a potential playoff preview, the Washington Nationals continued to show some cracks in the mighty exterior against a quality opponent. Their starting pitching struggled (Edwin Jackson and Ross Detwiler gave up 16 runs, 11 earned in just 4 total innings) and when Jordan Zimmermann actually gave them a good start, Drew Storen blew a 9th inning lead. The Nationals survived in the Storen game, but they lost 2 of 3 and are now 7-9 in their last 16 games. Because the Dodgers swept the Rockies while giving up just 1 run all weekend, the Cardinals didn't clinch a playoff spot and the Nationals are still stuck with a magic number of 1 because the Braves won 2 of 3 against the Mets. Washington welcomes Philadelphia to D.C. with the champagne still on ice while St. Louis plays their main rival, the Cincinnati Reds to end the regular season with the playoff hopes on the line.
6. #25 Baylor Bears at #9 West Virginia Mountaineers
There were no rational words to describe this game. The scoring came easier than {insert racy, adult joke here}. 133 total points. I pray to God you all bet the over. Each team scored double digits in each quarter except the 3rd where Baylor only mustered 7 points. Luckily West Virginia scored 21. It was 35-35 at the half thanks to your average, run of the mill 67 yard (non Hail Mary) touchdown pass on the final play of the second quarter. You name an offensive record and it was probably broken. I had predicted the score to be 38-27, but I forgot that they play two halves and not just one in the Big 12. Geno Smith, the quarterback for the Mountaineers, made his Heisman statement by going 45-51 for 656 yards (not a typo), 8 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. He also added 31 yards on the ground, but who is counting? He now has 20 passing touchdowns and only 28 INCOMPLETIONS on the season with no interceptions. That's absurd. Nick Florence did his best to keep pace for Baylor throwing for 581 yards, 5 touchdowns and rushing for a score as well, but the Bears ran out of time. Somewhere between this and what the Big 10 produces is good, quality college football. (Hint: its called the SEC).
5. New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
For more than half of this game, it looked as though Buffalo was ready to take control of the AFC East and put a boot to the throats of the Patriots. Then reality set in. New England reeled off 35 straight points after falling behind 21-7 in about 13 minutes of game time. In all the Patriots scorched the Bills for 45 second half points and climbed back to 2-2 along with Buffalo by winning 52-28. My score of 27-20 New England was spot on if the game had ended after the 1st minute of play in the 4th quarter. Somehow I keep underestimating the quality of offenses and the lack of defense in both college and pro football. Not only did New England get 340 yards passing and 3 touchdowns from Tom Brady, but they had two running backs (Stevan Ridley and Brandon Bolden) eclipse 100 yards while scoring three times total. Buffalo had both of their running backs (Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller) quasi-healthy for the game, but they were held in check rushing for only 62 total yards on 21 carries.
4. New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles
What started out as a snooze fest, turned into another dramatic, down to the last play, controversial ending, classic NFC East grudge match. The keys for Philadelphia (per me) was to involve LeSean McCoy more and he had 26 touches for 140 yards. Michael Vick didn't turn the ball over and since both of my two keys came true it only meant that the Eagles were destined to win a close game. Down by just a point late in the 4th quarter, the Eagles were forced to settle for a field goal after having a 1st and goal. This left just under 2 minutes to play and Eli Manning with yet another chance to win a game late. Thanks to a very, very questionable pass interference call, the Giants moved to within field goal range with only seconds to play. That didn't stop them from taking one last shot to the end zone, but Manning under threw the receiver and he was forced to tackle Nnamdi Asomugha for offensive pass interference. The Giants were now forced into attempting a 54 yard field goal which they missed. But wait...Andy Reid called a timeout. The Giants got a second chance and this time the kick split the uprights, but fell two yards short. The Eagles won 19-17 which was kind of close to my 27-26 prediction.
3. A.L. West Race/Wild Card (Seattle Mariners at Oakland Athletics & Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers)
Both of these series were incredible. The Athletics took care of business easily on Friday night, but looked to be dead in the water on Saturday. Heading into the 8th inning they trailed Seattle 4-1 and the half empty (shocker) O.co Coliseum crown was listless. They scored a run in that inning, but the rally was squashed when the potential third run was gunned down at the plate. But the 9th inning in Oakland is when the magic begins for these Athletics. After a walk to Josh Reddick, Josh Donaldson hit a game tying 2 run homer and in the 10th inning, Brandon Moss hit the game winning 3 run homer to give Oakland its 14th walk off victory of the season. Sunday saw the Athletics hit two more home runs in the 8th inning to break open a 2-2 tie to sweep the Mariners. In Texas, the Angels survived a late rally to win game one of their series. Saturday was rained out forcing the two teams to play a double header on Sunday. The Rangers were an out away from evening the series at a game apiece when Torii Hunter smashed a two run double and the Angels won game two in dramatic fashion. Game 3 was more of the same at the start as the Angels raced out to a 4-0 lead. The Rangers were staring at a one game lead heading to Oakland, but rallied to score the next 8 runs. Los Angeles hit a 3 run homer to close the gap to 8-7, but that was all she wrote. Texas goes into Oakland needing just one win to clinch the West while Oakland needs a win or a loss by both Tampa Bay and Los Angeles to clinch a playoff berth. With the Rangers win, they are in the playoffs as are the Orioles and Yankees.
2. A.L. East Race (Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles & New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays)
So I called for the Orioles to sweep the Red Sox. Yup. So I called for the Yankees to take two of three from the Blue Jays (after losing game one of the 4 game set Thursday). Yup. Nailed it. Baltimore and New York are tied atop the A.L East (and Wild Card #1 for the matter) with only three games left. Baltimore has by far the tougher road as they go to Tampa Bay for their games, although they will miss both David Price and Matt Moore. The Yankees get to head home and welcome the horrid Red Sox to town. Now nothing would make Boston fans somewhat happier than watching the Red Sox cost New York a division crown, but I don't know if the players on the field have enough talent to even make it close. Their heart may be in it, but the current Red Sox suck to put it bluntly. They have lost 9 of 10 as they limp to the end of a disastrous season. As much as it pains me to do so, I think the Yankees win the division outright by a game as Baltimore has to settle for a one game playoff against (probably Oakland) someone.
1. The Ryder Cup
I don't think even the most talented writer would be able to piece enough glorious prose together to give what actually happened justice. To put it simply, the USA got beat by the better team in remarkable fashion. After the first two days, the Americans held a very commanding 10-6 lead. Only once (in 1999) had either side come back to win on Sunday when trailing by 4 points or more. That lead was 10-6 for Europe and the Americans made a outrageous comeback on home soil. This time, with the tables turned, but still on American soil, nobody gave Europe much of a chance to win away from home. The strategy that was employed by captain Jose Maria Olazabal was to put his best players out first to try and quiet the raucous crowd. It worked perfectly. The Europeans won the first four matches out of the gate and the score was even at 10. Since Europe had won the previous Cup they only needed 14 total points to retain it, while the Americans needed 14 1/2 to win it. The next two groups split victories to keep the score knotted at 11. The Americans took a 12-11 lead, but Europe erased that quickly winning two straight and took their first lead of the weekend 13-12. All they needed was one more point. It wasn't going to come easy as Jason Dufner won to tie the score at 13. It came down to the final two matches and with Europe leading in one and trailing in the other things were looking good for them. American Steve Stricker holed a par putt to force Martin Kaymer to sink a six foot putt to win and that's just what he did. It was an epic collapse, but the tension was unmatched. I had predicted a 16-12 American victory and that's how it should have happened, but sports doesn't work that way. Win, lose or draw that's the way I like them.
Friday, September 28, 2012
Weekend Viewing Guide 9/28/12
This is the week that every baseball team has been working towards since Spring Training started in March. With six games left for everyone it's time to punch your ticket to the postseason or go home. The American League holds all of the drama as none of the divisions have been decided. There are also no less than four teams still vying for the two Wild Card spots. Four of the five playoff teams, including two of the three division winners, have already been decided in the National League and the final Wild Card looks to be all be sewn up, but Washington still has some work left to do and they are still vying for the top record in all of baseball with Cincinnati.
The big news in the NFL is that the real referees are back and started last night in Baltimore. Football is much more boring when you only have to focus on the game. Thank heavens for fantasy football or else I would have turned off the Ravens/Browns game early with the way each team started. Outside of the ref issues it was quite amazing to have a week like the last one where Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger, Peyton Manning, Michael Vick and Philip Rivers all lost. That's a big chunk of the face of the NFL going down all at the same time, and you can't even say it was the next generation doing all the work as Cam Newton, RGIII and Andrew Luck all lost too.
College football has a light schedule, but I'm sure there will be a big upset (*Editors note* Did you see Stanford lose late last night??) and some crazy finishes worth noting. Thankfully the PGA has the Ryder Cup going on to balance the weekend out.
Here's what I'll be watching:
10. #14 Ohio St. Buckeyes at #20 Michigan St. Spartans
I realize this is a meeting of two top twenty teams. But this is the Big 10 after all. We've seen what happens to the Big 10 when they play out of conference, it gets quite ugly. You can hype this game up as much as you want, but the fact is neither of these teams are good enough to contend. This game will be exciting like watching paint dry. I hate the Big 10 and I just don't know why I included this on my list. I probably should have stuck with nine games. The winner of this game will be zzzzzzzzzz....sorry fell asleep on my keyboard. Michigan St. 24 Ohio St. 21
9. Miami Dolphins at Arizona Cardinals
In my NFL preview article I predicted the Houston Texans to defeat the Atlanta Falcons in the Super Bowl. They are both 3-0. There is only one other 3-0 team in the NFL and that is the Arizona Cardinals. Yup, I'm as shocked as you are. Not only did they lose their 'starting' quarterback John Skelton to injury and had to turn to their real 'starting' quarterback Kevin Kolb (who they paid big bucks for last season, but lost all faith in him real fast and now have no choice but to play him and he is finally producing the way he was supposed to so maybe they should have stuck with him after all because that only makes financial and football sense anyways), but they have already won in New England so it might be time to take them seriously. Their defense has been stellar as they haven't given up more than 18 points in a game. In fact they have only given up 40 points all season which is about one games worth to us Redskins fans. Even without the services of Skelton and newly injured (re-injured? perpetually injured?) running back Beanie Wells, this should be a cake walk for Arizona. Miami is not very good and their only offensive weapon, Reggie Bush is injured. They also have to travel cross country for Ryan Tannehill's second ever road game. This game will be a blowout, won't it? Arizona 20 Miami 17
8. A.L. Central Race (Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins & Tampa Bay Rays at Chicago White Sox)
All season long I have been sticking by my prediction that the Tigers would win the A.L. Central by 4-5 games. It finally looks like I may be right. After losing to Tampa Bay last night, the White Sox have now dropped 3 in a row and are 2-8 in their last 10 games. Detroit has won 4 in a row and 7 of their last 10 to take a seemingly insurmountable two game lead with six to go. Detroit plays only the Twins and Royals the rest of the way and at worst they will go 4-2. Chicago is not going 6-0. This race is...how do you say it Hawk???? O-vah!!! You can put that on the board. Detroit will be up by 3 come Monday.
7. Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinals
Two teams that have all but wrapped up their playoff seeding meet. This will be fun to see if the Nationals clinch the N.L. East crown on the same day that the Cardinals clinch the 2nd Wild Card. Dual celebrations!! This is a potential NLDS match up so the advanced scouts will be out in full force trying to pick up on any trends that either team might be showing. Rookie Bryce Harper has found his stroke again and is getting hot just at the right time. The Cardinals welcomed back starting pitcher Chris Carpenter who has missed the entire season since pitching in Game 7 of the World Series in last October. Saturday features the marquee match up with Kyle Lohse who is still an astounding 16-3 against Jordan Zimmermann who has been elevated to the #2 man in the rotation with the absence of Stephen Strasburg. I think Washington wins two of three clinching the N.L. East on Sunday. St. Louis must wait a day for their celebration.
6. #25 Baylor Bears at #9 West Virginia Mountaineers
West Virginia is in the Big 12. West Virginia is in the Big 12. It will take time to remember that one and Saturday they make their debut hosting the Baylor Bears. Geno Smith is a star and on the young season he has 1072 passing yards, 12 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. Baylor has replaced RGIII with Nick Florence and he has responded in kind with 1004 yards passing, 11 touchdowns and 4 interceptions over his first three games. There was a memo sent out to the city of Morgantown where WVU is located reminding fans and students to not burn any couches. Yeah, that will work. Let the couches burn!! West Virginia 38 Baylor 27
5. New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
The Bills have done this recently, the Patriots have not. Last year Buffalo jumped out to a 3-0 record after beating these same Patriots at home. They eventually climbed to 5-2 before injuries took hold and Buffalo dropped seven straight in route to a 6-10 season. The last time the New England Patriots who are 1-2 were below .500 at any point in the season was 2003 when they lost the opening game to the Buffalo Bills. It all comes full circle friends. Buffalo can not only stay atop the AFC East standings with a win, but they can also put two full games between them and New England. I realize that the Patriots aren't worried. After all, when they started 0-1 in 2003 they still won the Super Bowl. But if they lose on Sunday and fall to 1-3 they will be 2 games below .500 for the first time since week 2 of 2001 and that year...oh crap...yeah they won the Super Bowl that year too. New England 27 Buffalo 20
4. New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles
Now this is an intriguing game. Both teams stand at 2-1, but only the Giants have looked halfway decent doing so. The Eagles have been using smoke and mirrors to offset their 12 turnovers, which is the worst in the NFL, but that won't work this week. The Giants will take full advantage of any sloppy play by Philadelphia which in lies the key to the game. If Michael Vick can play smart and if Andy Reid relies heavily on their best player, LeSean McCoy, the Eagles will win. If not the Giants will roll out of Philadelphia victorious. New York might have found their newest incarnation of Thunder and Lightning with what Andre Brown did last week and with the return of Ahmad Bradshaw. Add that to what we know Eli Manning can do with Victor Cruz and a healthy(ish) Hakeem Nicks and mix in the emergence of Martellus Bennett and this team has the potential to even be better than the Super Bowl winning squad of last year. Final Score: Philadelphia 27 New York 26
3. A.L. West Race/Wild Card (Seattle Mariners at Oakland Athletics & Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers)
The two races very near and dear to my heart. Oakland missed out on a glorious chance yesterday to put the fear of God into Texas. With a win they would have closed the gap in the A.L. West to two games, but instead sit four back. With three head to head games left in Oakland, nothing is wrapped up just yet for the Rangers but they are getting close. It won't be easy as the red hot Angels stroll into town with Jered Weaver, Ervin Santana and Zack Greinke pitching. Both teams are in dire need of victories (obviously LA more so) and if the Angels win two of three, the door may be wide open for Oakland to control their own destiny come Monday. The Athletics welcome the Mariners to town which may sound good, but Seattle has been playing with heart. Justin Smoak is on a torrid hot streak, but without Felix Hernandez pitching, I don't see them winning more than a game this weekend. I say both the Angels and Athletics win two of three and the Athletics stay two up on Los Angeles and Tampa Bay while closing the gap in the West to three games.
2. A.L. East Race (Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles & New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays)
Six games left and the surprising Baltimore Orioles refuse to go away. Not only are they leading the first Wild Card by a game over the equally surprising Oakland Athletics, but they trail the mighty Yankees but just a single game. I could make a case for either team winning the East because what I have seen all season long doesn't make sense. Baltimore has roughly used 79 different starting pitchers this season while the future Hall of Fame lineup that New York rolls out every night continues to be hot and cold. Both teams have had devastating injuries, but that is not any different than the rest of MLB. All I know is that the emotion in Charm City this weekend will be palpable. Fans of the Orioles haven't been treated to this since 1997 and they will definitely turn out in droves to sweep away the Red Sox. The atmosphere in Toronto will be a bit more subdued, but it shouldn't stop the Yankees from winning two of three this weekend. Give me a tie atop the standings come Monday morning!
1. The Ryder Cup
If you know anything about me, you know I'm a sucker for high level golf. If you know anything else about me, you know I'm a glutton for country versus country sporting events. The Ryder Cup gets me. USA versus Europe in 72 hours of day long golf with three different formats. The best golfers playing not only for personal pride, but for their country. Yes Rory, Tiger and Phil are all there. So is the FexEx Cup winner Brandt Snedeker. In fact 9 of the top 10 golfers in the world rankings will be partaking in this weekends event. Only Australian Adam Scott is missing. This tournament is only played once every other year and as it rotates between the Unites States and Europe, its only here once every four years. In 2010, Europe held serve by winning 14 1/2 to 13 1/2 so it is imperative for the States to respond on home soil. On paper the United States has the edge, they have home field advantage and I think they win this one with a bit of a cushion 16-12.
The big news in the NFL is that the real referees are back and started last night in Baltimore. Football is much more boring when you only have to focus on the game. Thank heavens for fantasy football or else I would have turned off the Ravens/Browns game early with the way each team started. Outside of the ref issues it was quite amazing to have a week like the last one where Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger, Peyton Manning, Michael Vick and Philip Rivers all lost. That's a big chunk of the face of the NFL going down all at the same time, and you can't even say it was the next generation doing all the work as Cam Newton, RGIII and Andrew Luck all lost too.
College football has a light schedule, but I'm sure there will be a big upset (*Editors note* Did you see Stanford lose late last night??) and some crazy finishes worth noting. Thankfully the PGA has the Ryder Cup going on to balance the weekend out.
Here's what I'll be watching:
10. #14 Ohio St. Buckeyes at #20 Michigan St. Spartans
I realize this is a meeting of two top twenty teams. But this is the Big 10 after all. We've seen what happens to the Big 10 when they play out of conference, it gets quite ugly. You can hype this game up as much as you want, but the fact is neither of these teams are good enough to contend. This game will be exciting like watching paint dry. I hate the Big 10 and I just don't know why I included this on my list. I probably should have stuck with nine games. The winner of this game will be zzzzzzzzzz....sorry fell asleep on my keyboard. Michigan St. 24 Ohio St. 21
9. Miami Dolphins at Arizona Cardinals
In my NFL preview article I predicted the Houston Texans to defeat the Atlanta Falcons in the Super Bowl. They are both 3-0. There is only one other 3-0 team in the NFL and that is the Arizona Cardinals. Yup, I'm as shocked as you are. Not only did they lose their 'starting' quarterback John Skelton to injury and had to turn to their real 'starting' quarterback Kevin Kolb (who they paid big bucks for last season, but lost all faith in him real fast and now have no choice but to play him and he is finally producing the way he was supposed to so maybe they should have stuck with him after all because that only makes financial and football sense anyways), but they have already won in New England so it might be time to take them seriously. Their defense has been stellar as they haven't given up more than 18 points in a game. In fact they have only given up 40 points all season which is about one games worth to us Redskins fans. Even without the services of Skelton and newly injured (re-injured? perpetually injured?) running back Beanie Wells, this should be a cake walk for Arizona. Miami is not very good and their only offensive weapon, Reggie Bush is injured. They also have to travel cross country for Ryan Tannehill's second ever road game. This game will be a blowout, won't it? Arizona 20 Miami 17
8. A.L. Central Race (Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins & Tampa Bay Rays at Chicago White Sox)
All season long I have been sticking by my prediction that the Tigers would win the A.L. Central by 4-5 games. It finally looks like I may be right. After losing to Tampa Bay last night, the White Sox have now dropped 3 in a row and are 2-8 in their last 10 games. Detroit has won 4 in a row and 7 of their last 10 to take a seemingly insurmountable two game lead with six to go. Detroit plays only the Twins and Royals the rest of the way and at worst they will go 4-2. Chicago is not going 6-0. This race is...how do you say it Hawk???? O-vah!!! You can put that on the board. Detroit will be up by 3 come Monday.
7. Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinals
Two teams that have all but wrapped up their playoff seeding meet. This will be fun to see if the Nationals clinch the N.L. East crown on the same day that the Cardinals clinch the 2nd Wild Card. Dual celebrations!! This is a potential NLDS match up so the advanced scouts will be out in full force trying to pick up on any trends that either team might be showing. Rookie Bryce Harper has found his stroke again and is getting hot just at the right time. The Cardinals welcomed back starting pitcher Chris Carpenter who has missed the entire season since pitching in Game 7 of the World Series in last October. Saturday features the marquee match up with Kyle Lohse who is still an astounding 16-3 against Jordan Zimmermann who has been elevated to the #2 man in the rotation with the absence of Stephen Strasburg. I think Washington wins two of three clinching the N.L. East on Sunday. St. Louis must wait a day for their celebration.
6. #25 Baylor Bears at #9 West Virginia Mountaineers
West Virginia is in the Big 12. West Virginia is in the Big 12. It will take time to remember that one and Saturday they make their debut hosting the Baylor Bears. Geno Smith is a star and on the young season he has 1072 passing yards, 12 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. Baylor has replaced RGIII with Nick Florence and he has responded in kind with 1004 yards passing, 11 touchdowns and 4 interceptions over his first three games. There was a memo sent out to the city of Morgantown where WVU is located reminding fans and students to not burn any couches. Yeah, that will work. Let the couches burn!! West Virginia 38 Baylor 27
5. New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
The Bills have done this recently, the Patriots have not. Last year Buffalo jumped out to a 3-0 record after beating these same Patriots at home. They eventually climbed to 5-2 before injuries took hold and Buffalo dropped seven straight in route to a 6-10 season. The last time the New England Patriots who are 1-2 were below .500 at any point in the season was 2003 when they lost the opening game to the Buffalo Bills. It all comes full circle friends. Buffalo can not only stay atop the AFC East standings with a win, but they can also put two full games between them and New England. I realize that the Patriots aren't worried. After all, when they started 0-1 in 2003 they still won the Super Bowl. But if they lose on Sunday and fall to 1-3 they will be 2 games below .500 for the first time since week 2 of 2001 and that year...oh crap...yeah they won the Super Bowl that year too. New England 27 Buffalo 20
4. New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles
Now this is an intriguing game. Both teams stand at 2-1, but only the Giants have looked halfway decent doing so. The Eagles have been using smoke and mirrors to offset their 12 turnovers, which is the worst in the NFL, but that won't work this week. The Giants will take full advantage of any sloppy play by Philadelphia which in lies the key to the game. If Michael Vick can play smart and if Andy Reid relies heavily on their best player, LeSean McCoy, the Eagles will win. If not the Giants will roll out of Philadelphia victorious. New York might have found their newest incarnation of Thunder and Lightning with what Andre Brown did last week and with the return of Ahmad Bradshaw. Add that to what we know Eli Manning can do with Victor Cruz and a healthy(ish) Hakeem Nicks and mix in the emergence of Martellus Bennett and this team has the potential to even be better than the Super Bowl winning squad of last year. Final Score: Philadelphia 27 New York 26
3. A.L. West Race/Wild Card (Seattle Mariners at Oakland Athletics & Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers)
The two races very near and dear to my heart. Oakland missed out on a glorious chance yesterday to put the fear of God into Texas. With a win they would have closed the gap in the A.L. West to two games, but instead sit four back. With three head to head games left in Oakland, nothing is wrapped up just yet for the Rangers but they are getting close. It won't be easy as the red hot Angels stroll into town with Jered Weaver, Ervin Santana and Zack Greinke pitching. Both teams are in dire need of victories (obviously LA more so) and if the Angels win two of three, the door may be wide open for Oakland to control their own destiny come Monday. The Athletics welcome the Mariners to town which may sound good, but Seattle has been playing with heart. Justin Smoak is on a torrid hot streak, but without Felix Hernandez pitching, I don't see them winning more than a game this weekend. I say both the Angels and Athletics win two of three and the Athletics stay two up on Los Angeles and Tampa Bay while closing the gap in the West to three games.
2. A.L. East Race (Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles & New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays)
Six games left and the surprising Baltimore Orioles refuse to go away. Not only are they leading the first Wild Card by a game over the equally surprising Oakland Athletics, but they trail the mighty Yankees but just a single game. I could make a case for either team winning the East because what I have seen all season long doesn't make sense. Baltimore has roughly used 79 different starting pitchers this season while the future Hall of Fame lineup that New York rolls out every night continues to be hot and cold. Both teams have had devastating injuries, but that is not any different than the rest of MLB. All I know is that the emotion in Charm City this weekend will be palpable. Fans of the Orioles haven't been treated to this since 1997 and they will definitely turn out in droves to sweep away the Red Sox. The atmosphere in Toronto will be a bit more subdued, but it shouldn't stop the Yankees from winning two of three this weekend. Give me a tie atop the standings come Monday morning!
1. The Ryder Cup
If you know anything about me, you know I'm a sucker for high level golf. If you know anything else about me, you know I'm a glutton for country versus country sporting events. The Ryder Cup gets me. USA versus Europe in 72 hours of day long golf with three different formats. The best golfers playing not only for personal pride, but for their country. Yes Rory, Tiger and Phil are all there. So is the FexEx Cup winner Brandt Snedeker. In fact 9 of the top 10 golfers in the world rankings will be partaking in this weekends event. Only Australian Adam Scott is missing. This tournament is only played once every other year and as it rotates between the Unites States and Europe, its only here once every four years. In 2010, Europe held serve by winning 14 1/2 to 13 1/2 so it is imperative for the States to respond on home soil. On paper the United States has the edge, they have home field advantage and I think they win this one with a bit of a cushion 16-12.
Friday, September 14, 2012
Weekend Viewing Guide 9/14/12
No tennis, no golf, no soccer...no worries. There is still a glutton of sports to watch this weekend. I'm not even going to highlight the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears I'm watching as I type that was played last night or the mouth-watering Monday Night Football game between my MVP choice, Matt Ryan and the expected Comeback Player of the Year, Peyton Manning. If you're a betting person...take the over. Either of those games would have cracked my top 3 of the weekend, but I push on, there are still enough main courses to satisfy even the Burgerdays crew.
Let's roll our sleeves up and get right into it:
10. James Madison University vs. West Virginia University (FedEx Field)
Okay don't stop reading, I haven't gone crazy. I went to JMU and I know some guys who went to West Virginia so there's a little more at stake if JMU can keep it close. If you remember, JMU went down to Virginia Tech just two years ago and won so be careful Mountaineer fans. In all actuality this will be a 60-17 type score, but you have two schools that have a ton of alumni in the DC/Maryland area and a 90,000 seat stadium to fill. With a 4:30pm start, the only real question is how many fans will be sober enough to remember to go into the stadium? Let's go Dukes!
9. St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgers
What the hell is going on with the National League Wild Card standings? The Cardinals suck, the Dodgers stink and the Pirates are terrible. The only teams that seem to want to play Atlanta in the one game playoff are the Philadelphia Phillies and Milwaukee Brewers who have each shaved about 10 games in the standings in the last month. This four game series that started (right about now) Thursday has the chance to make a gruesome mess of everything. By Monday there could be five teams within two games of the second Wild Card. When St. Louis and Los Angeles split these four games they will be at 77 and 76 wins respectively. The Pirates play the crappy Cubs, the Phillies will crush the abysmal Astros and the Brewers should manhandle the Mets. This puts all three of them at 75 wins with sweeps. All five will have either 70-72 losses as well with just over two weeks to go...just how we want it.
8. New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers
Neither team expected to be facing an 0-2 start. Both teams were given a tasty cupcake of an opening week game by the NFL and yet both lost. In a division that I expect the Atlanta Falcons to win easily both of these teams are playing for a Wild Card spot in my opinion. This elevates a rather middling week 2 game into a pretty tasty pressure test. I'm sure if I had the Elias Sports Bureau working for me I could tell you what the chances are for 0-2 teams to make the playoffs, but I can promise you it's not that good. Dammit, I'm calling it...the loser of this game does not make the playoffs. Done. Final Score: Saints 31 Panthers 23
7. Florida Gators at Tennessee Volunteers
Welcome back from obscurity Tennessee. This game used to be the highlight of the SEC schedule. Then Tennessee disappeared into oblivion while Florida had up and down seasons (with some Tim Tebow greatness as well) and everyone forgot about these teams. Now even though they are relegated to a Week 3 meeting in mid-September, its good to see both schools getting good again at the same time. Both teams are ranked, ESPN is headed to Knoxville and they made my exclusive list of things to watch! Yes rivalry games in college football are exciting and this one has been ignored for far too long. Final Score Tennessee 31 Florida 21
6. Baltimore Ravens at Philadelphia Eagles
Did you see how good the Ravens looked on Monday? Did you see how bad the Eagles looked on Sunday? All that and Philadelphia is still a 2 point favorite at home this week. A short week and having to play on the road might have a bit to do with that for Baltimore. Something tell me each team will regress to the mean this weekend even if the Eagles are without Jeremy Maclin or DeSean Jackson or both. Michael Vick can't throw 4 more interceptions can he? Joe Flacco isn't going to be an MVP candidate is he? No I don't think either of these will be true. I still have the Ravens squeaking out a 23-20 win.
5. Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Michigan St. Spartans
This is a perfect September game. Two really good September teams that real fans of college football understand have no frickin' shot at being relevant come mid-November. The fans can only hope for another memorable finish like in 2010:
That highlight was made even better with the Star Wars cameo. Notre Dame has not been in the championship picture since the late 80's and the Big Ten is only good when not playing teams from real conferences like the SEC. That makes this game a perfect match up...for September. Final Score Michigan St. 30 Notre Dame 24
4. Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees
I don't understand Tampa Bay. Well I take that back, they can't hit worth a damn. Even though they resemble the Oakland Athletics both on the mound and at the plate and how bad their stadium is, something is missing. There is no magic spark. Time is now beginning to run out on the Rays and unless they walk into New York and win this series, they could be missing the playoffs this year. Things are not looking much better in New York. The age of their core players is starting to become an issue as the injuries continue to mount. Mark Teixeira is injured, Derek Jeter narrowly avoided a bad ankle injury, C.C. Sabathia is hurting and the team just looks sluggish. This starts a 9 game home stand with both the Rays and the Athletics coming to town and we should know the fate of New York by the end of that.
3. USC Trojans at Stanford Cardinal
I bet you didn't realize that senior quarterback Matt Barkley has yet to defeat Stanford. He's 0-3 thanks to Andrew Luck, but unlike Luck, Barkley stayed in school toparty, hang out with co-eds, be the big man on campus
win a BCS Championship. This is the game that USC has to have had
circled on its calendar ever since Barkley decided to return. They owe
the Cardinal some payback for the recent domination that they have had
on their neighbors to the south. The cupboard isn't completely bare for
Stanford as Junior quarterback Josh Nunes has filed in quite admirably,
albeit against lesser competition (yup I'm talking about you Duke).
I've got the over/under on Barkley touchdown passes at 4.5...anyone dare
to take the under? Final Score USC 45 Stanford 27
2. Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers
Ooooooh I remember how this one ended last year. The two head coaches jawing at each other while racing off the field and a little shove fest. Last week the Lions didn't look like the fun 'n gun offensive video game that was 2011. The 49ers did, on the other hand, resemble their 2011 model of being the best defensive unit in the NFL. They also added a better passing game and currently have a healthy Frank Gore. No matter how much I want this to be a good game, I have a feeling this is where the Lions start to crack a bit and the 49ers surge into Super Bowl contenders. Final Score San Francisco 27 Detroit 13
1. Baltimore Orioles at Oakland Athletics
The two best stories in the American League and possibly the Majors meet in the dump that is the O.co Stadium. If the Orioles allowed the Athletics to be the home team, I'd petition Bud Selig to move the series to Camden Yards. Not only would I be able to attend, but it'd be a setting befitting the importance of this series. I know of nobody who thought this series would receive any national media attention, but with the two darlings of baseball playing in mid-September it will be beat reporters dream for its multitude of story lines. Each team is playing for a fallen teammate, Nick Markakis of the Orioles lost for the regular season with a broken hand and Brandon McCarthy of the Athletics lost for the season with a fractured skull. Both teams are currently in the playoffs and have split the season series 3-3 to date so I expect a low scoring series where the team scoring first will win all three games. The bullpens are just too good and the stadium too big for many comebacks to occur.
*Editor's note* After watching 3 quarters of the Packers/Bears game, I change my mind about it being considered for the Top 10 list. Yaaaaaaaaaawwwwwwnnnnnnn! If your best highlight is a punter pitching a ball to a backup tight end, you have not been entertaining.
Let's roll our sleeves up and get right into it:
10. James Madison University vs. West Virginia University (FedEx Field)
Okay don't stop reading, I haven't gone crazy. I went to JMU and I know some guys who went to West Virginia so there's a little more at stake if JMU can keep it close. If you remember, JMU went down to Virginia Tech just two years ago and won so be careful Mountaineer fans. In all actuality this will be a 60-17 type score, but you have two schools that have a ton of alumni in the DC/Maryland area and a 90,000 seat stadium to fill. With a 4:30pm start, the only real question is how many fans will be sober enough to remember to go into the stadium? Let's go Dukes!
9. St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgers
What the hell is going on with the National League Wild Card standings? The Cardinals suck, the Dodgers stink and the Pirates are terrible. The only teams that seem to want to play Atlanta in the one game playoff are the Philadelphia Phillies and Milwaukee Brewers who have each shaved about 10 games in the standings in the last month. This four game series that started (right about now) Thursday has the chance to make a gruesome mess of everything. By Monday there could be five teams within two games of the second Wild Card. When St. Louis and Los Angeles split these four games they will be at 77 and 76 wins respectively. The Pirates play the crappy Cubs, the Phillies will crush the abysmal Astros and the Brewers should manhandle the Mets. This puts all three of them at 75 wins with sweeps. All five will have either 70-72 losses as well with just over two weeks to go...just how we want it.
8. New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers
Neither team expected to be facing an 0-2 start. Both teams were given a tasty cupcake of an opening week game by the NFL and yet both lost. In a division that I expect the Atlanta Falcons to win easily both of these teams are playing for a Wild Card spot in my opinion. This elevates a rather middling week 2 game into a pretty tasty pressure test. I'm sure if I had the Elias Sports Bureau working for me I could tell you what the chances are for 0-2 teams to make the playoffs, but I can promise you it's not that good. Dammit, I'm calling it...the loser of this game does not make the playoffs. Done. Final Score: Saints 31 Panthers 23
7. Florida Gators at Tennessee Volunteers
Welcome back from obscurity Tennessee. This game used to be the highlight of the SEC schedule. Then Tennessee disappeared into oblivion while Florida had up and down seasons (with some Tim Tebow greatness as well) and everyone forgot about these teams. Now even though they are relegated to a Week 3 meeting in mid-September, its good to see both schools getting good again at the same time. Both teams are ranked, ESPN is headed to Knoxville and they made my exclusive list of things to watch! Yes rivalry games in college football are exciting and this one has been ignored for far too long. Final Score Tennessee 31 Florida 21
6. Baltimore Ravens at Philadelphia Eagles
Did you see how good the Ravens looked on Monday? Did you see how bad the Eagles looked on Sunday? All that and Philadelphia is still a 2 point favorite at home this week. A short week and having to play on the road might have a bit to do with that for Baltimore. Something tell me each team will regress to the mean this weekend even if the Eagles are without Jeremy Maclin or DeSean Jackson or both. Michael Vick can't throw 4 more interceptions can he? Joe Flacco isn't going to be an MVP candidate is he? No I don't think either of these will be true. I still have the Ravens squeaking out a 23-20 win.
5. Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Michigan St. Spartans
This is a perfect September game. Two really good September teams that real fans of college football understand have no frickin' shot at being relevant come mid-November. The fans can only hope for another memorable finish like in 2010:
That highlight was made even better with the Star Wars cameo. Notre Dame has not been in the championship picture since the late 80's and the Big Ten is only good when not playing teams from real conferences like the SEC. That makes this game a perfect match up...for September. Final Score Michigan St. 30 Notre Dame 24
4. Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees
I don't understand Tampa Bay. Well I take that back, they can't hit worth a damn. Even though they resemble the Oakland Athletics both on the mound and at the plate and how bad their stadium is, something is missing. There is no magic spark. Time is now beginning to run out on the Rays and unless they walk into New York and win this series, they could be missing the playoffs this year. Things are not looking much better in New York. The age of their core players is starting to become an issue as the injuries continue to mount. Mark Teixeira is injured, Derek Jeter narrowly avoided a bad ankle injury, C.C. Sabathia is hurting and the team just looks sluggish. This starts a 9 game home stand with both the Rays and the Athletics coming to town and we should know the fate of New York by the end of that.
3. USC Trojans at Stanford Cardinal
I bet you didn't realize that senior quarterback Matt Barkley has yet to defeat Stanford. He's 0-3 thanks to Andrew Luck, but unlike Luck, Barkley stayed in school to
2. Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers
Ooooooh I remember how this one ended last year. The two head coaches jawing at each other while racing off the field and a little shove fest. Last week the Lions didn't look like the fun 'n gun offensive video game that was 2011. The 49ers did, on the other hand, resemble their 2011 model of being the best defensive unit in the NFL. They also added a better passing game and currently have a healthy Frank Gore. No matter how much I want this to be a good game, I have a feeling this is where the Lions start to crack a bit and the 49ers surge into Super Bowl contenders. Final Score San Francisco 27 Detroit 13
1. Baltimore Orioles at Oakland Athletics
The two best stories in the American League and possibly the Majors meet in the dump that is the O.co Stadium. If the Orioles allowed the Athletics to be the home team, I'd petition Bud Selig to move the series to Camden Yards. Not only would I be able to attend, but it'd be a setting befitting the importance of this series. I know of nobody who thought this series would receive any national media attention, but with the two darlings of baseball playing in mid-September it will be beat reporters dream for its multitude of story lines. Each team is playing for a fallen teammate, Nick Markakis of the Orioles lost for the regular season with a broken hand and Brandon McCarthy of the Athletics lost for the season with a fractured skull. Both teams are currently in the playoffs and have split the season series 3-3 to date so I expect a low scoring series where the team scoring first will win all three games. The bullpens are just too good and the stadium too big for many comebacks to occur.
*Editor's note* After watching 3 quarters of the Packers/Bears game, I change my mind about it being considered for the Top 10 list. Yaaaaaaaaaawwwwwwnnnnnnn! If your best highlight is a punter pitching a ball to a backup tight end, you have not been entertaining.
Monday, September 3, 2012
NFL Crystal Ball 2012
I'm back with another year of fearless predictions of the upcoming NFL season. Last year I had Green Bay defeating New England so I was halfway home, but since I didn't have the New York Giants even making the playoffs I feel I failed.
Houston over New England
SUPER BOWL:
Houston over Atlanta 24-20 Arian Foster Super Bowl MVP 115 yards rushing, 2 TD's
I did correctly predict that Aaron Rodgers would win the MVP award and that Jamaal Charles would be a disappointment, so not everything was a loss.
Once again I played out every game 10,000 times on my XBOX (what a long weekend it was) and I have seen surprises and disappointments and everything in between. Just to let you all know, RGIII will play in all 16 games. It won't help the success of the Redskins, but it was still amazing to see him stay upright.
My predictions only had 4 teams not make the playoffs that were in it last year which would actually be lower than the minimum of 5 that the NFL has seen over recent years. The biggest surprise was that the Philadelphia Eagles were able to keep it together and win the NFC East, but of course I thought the same last year too. Out west Norv Turner doesn't last as Chargers head coach through their Bye Week in Week 7.
Here are how the standings will shape up this season:
NFC EAST:
Philadelphia 12-4
Dallas 10-6
New York 9-7
Washington 6-10
NFC NORTH:
Green Bay 14-2
Chicago 11-5
Detroit 8-8
Minnesota 4-12
NFC SOUTH:
Atlanta 13-3
New Orleans 10-6
Carolina 7-9
Tampa Bay 3-13
NFC WEST:
San Francisco 11-5
Seattle 5-11
St. Louis 5-11
Arizona 4-12
AFC EAST:
New England 13-3
New York 10-6
Buffalo 6-10
Miami 6-10
AFC NORTH:
Baltimore 12-4
Pittsburgh 9-7
Cincinnati 9-7
Cleveland 2-14
AFC SOUTH:
Houston 12-4
Tennessee 7-9
Indianapolis 6-10
Jacksonville 2-14
AFC WEST:
Denver 11-5
Oakland 8-8
Kansas City 7-9
San Diego 4-12
MVP: Tom Brady 2nd: Matt Ryan
Surprises/Breakouts: Jake Locker, Jeremy Maclin (2nd year in a row for this pick), Donald Brown, Torrey Smith, Vernon Davis
Disappointments: Maurice Jones-Drew (hamstring issues due to holdout), Ryan Mathews, Vincent Jackson, Victor Cruz (freak salsa dance injury in Week 4), Matthew Stafford (11 games played which saddens me)
Playoffs:
NFC:
1. Green Bay 14-2
2. Atlanta 13-3
3. Philadelphia 12-4
4. San Francisco 11-5
5. Chicago 11-5
6. Dallas 10-6
Wild Card:
Philadelphia over Dallas
Chicago over San Francisco
Semifinals:
Green Bay over Chicago
Atlanta over Philadelphia
Conference Championship:
Atlanta over Green Bay
AFC:
1. New England 13-3
2. Baltimore 12-4
3. Houston 12-4
4. Denver 11-5
5. New York 10-6
6. Pittsburgh 9-7
Wild Card:
Houston over Pittsburgh
Denver over New York Jets
Semifinals:
New England over Denver
Houston over Baltimore
My predictions only had 4 teams not make the playoffs that were in it last year which would actually be lower than the minimum of 5 that the NFL has seen over recent years. The biggest surprise was that the Philadelphia Eagles were able to keep it together and win the NFC East, but of course I thought the same last year too. Out west Norv Turner doesn't last as Chargers head coach through their Bye Week in Week 7.
Here are how the standings will shape up this season:
NFC EAST:
Philadelphia 12-4
Dallas 10-6
New York 9-7
Washington 6-10
NFC NORTH:
Green Bay 14-2
Chicago 11-5
Detroit 8-8
Minnesota 4-12
NFC SOUTH:
Atlanta 13-3
New Orleans 10-6
Carolina 7-9
Tampa Bay 3-13
NFC WEST:
San Francisco 11-5
Seattle 5-11
St. Louis 5-11
Arizona 4-12
AFC EAST:
New England 13-3
New York 10-6
Buffalo 6-10
Miami 6-10
AFC NORTH:
Baltimore 12-4
Pittsburgh 9-7
Cincinnati 9-7
Cleveland 2-14
AFC SOUTH:
Houston 12-4
Tennessee 7-9
Indianapolis 6-10
Jacksonville 2-14
AFC WEST:
Denver 11-5
Oakland 8-8
Kansas City 7-9
San Diego 4-12
MVP: Tom Brady 2nd: Matt Ryan
Surprises/Breakouts: Jake Locker, Jeremy Maclin (2nd year in a row for this pick), Donald Brown, Torrey Smith, Vernon Davis
Disappointments: Maurice Jones-Drew (hamstring issues due to holdout), Ryan Mathews, Vincent Jackson, Victor Cruz (freak salsa dance injury in Week 4), Matthew Stafford (11 games played which saddens me)
Playoffs:
NFC:
1. Green Bay 14-2
2. Atlanta 13-3
3. Philadelphia 12-4
4. San Francisco 11-5
5. Chicago 11-5
6. Dallas 10-6
Wild Card:
Philadelphia over Dallas
Chicago over San Francisco
Semifinals:
Green Bay over Chicago
Atlanta over Philadelphia
Conference Championship:
Atlanta over Green Bay
AFC:
1. New England 13-3
2. Baltimore 12-4
3. Houston 12-4
4. Denver 11-5
5. New York 10-6
6. Pittsburgh 9-7
Wild Card:
Houston over Pittsburgh
Denver over New York Jets
Semifinals:
New England over Denver
Houston over Baltimore
Conference Championship:
Houston over New England
SUPER BOWL:
Houston over Atlanta 24-20 Arian Foster Super Bowl MVP 115 yards rushing, 2 TD's
Wednesday, August 1, 2012
Fantasy Football 2012 Preview: Pick 'em
Every year you can look back at your leagues fantasy football draft and see same round picks of a single position where one team got a stud and one team got a dud. Last year in one of my leagues there were two of us that waited to draft a quarterback. My friend and I are notorious for picking our quarterback late and when my turn came up I had two 'sleeper' picks left on the board: Matthew Stafford and Josh Freeman. I couldn't make up my mind and I knew nobody else would take a quarterback by the time it got back to me so I let him make my decision for me.
With the 1st pick in the 7th round (14 teams), my friend drafted Josh Freeman. Five picks later I took Matthew Stafford and wound up winning my league. My friend missed the playoffs. Sometimes it is that simple. Another example was where the team before me drafted LeGarrette Blount which forced me to shift strategy and take Larry Fitzgerald with the very next pick because I didn't like any of the next group of running backs. Later on I took Fred Jackson to compensate for not getting the stud running back in Blount that I wanted. That worked out well too.
This is why the draft is very important and sometimes it has nothing to do what you want to do. You must be prepared to scrap your entire plan on the fly because each year is different, each draft is unique and every competing owner is unpredictable. Not to mention we really have no clue how each player will perform in the upcoming season. All you can do as a fantasy owner is to draft players who you think will have the greatest success and get you the best value for your pick.
I'm going to take a look at some of the decisions you might have to make in your upcoming draft. It could be the difference between playing for a trophy or dancing in a tutu for your friends and coworkers. Don't end up dancing in a tutu for your friends and coworkers.
Quarterbacks:
Eli Manning (ADP 31.9 via ESPN) vs. Michael Vick (ADP 31.9 via ESPN)
One quarterback has won two Super Bowls and one quarterback has hinted that his team is on the verge of a dynasty. Last year Michael Vick went 1st overall in my league and that owner went 3-10. Eli Manning went 93rd overall as a backup and his owner went 10-2-1. Nobody would have predicted that Manning would have 450 points to Vick's 271, but it happened and because of it they are a toss up this season. For years Eli has been seen a great fantasy backup quarterback, but could never be trusted upon to start week in and week out. I think that title has now fallen to Jay Cutler, but we'll discuss that another time.
The Giants have two stud receivers in Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz and the Eagles receivers, DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin aren't too shabby either. Eli Manning hasn't missed a game since becoming the starter in New York, while Michael Vick has played in only 25 of 32 games since the start of the 2010 season. Eli Manning cannot and will not run for points for your fantasy team (4 rushing TD's in his 8 year career) whereas Michael Vick has 12 rushing TD's in the last 3 years alone.
The most difficult words to hear for a fantasy owner when describing a player are 'when healthy'. When healthy Michael Vick is a great fantasy weapon. Same for Darren McFadden and Andre Johnson, but when they aren't healthy...which is A LOT...they are useless to you. I understand why owners are enamored with Vick, hell I drafted him 1st overall in 2003, but that risk is tough to overcome for a 3rd round pick. For Manning owners know what they are going to get. Nothing too flashy, the occasional brain fart game (see Week 15 vs. Washington which eliminated a ton of Manning owners from their playoffs), but a real steady starting quarterback by seasons end.
The ironic thing about these two quarterbacks is that Eli Manning would have been the perfect back up to Michael Vick last year and this year a quarterback in the same mold as Vick, Robert Griffin III, will be a perfect back up for Eli Manning in a 10 team league.
Peyton Manning (ADP 41.9 via ESPN) vs. Tony Romo (ADP 47.9 via ESPN)
So you're telling me that a quarterback coming off of at least 4 neck 'procedures' who is 36 years old and didn't play last season is being drafted ahead of a quarterback who topped 4,000 yards and 30 TD's in a supposed down year for him? Tony Romo has Miles Austin, Dez Bryant and Jason Witten to throw to and plays at least half of his games in a dome on turf. Peyton Manning has Eric Decker, Demaryius Thomas and Jacob Tamme as his best weapons and will be playing outdoors in the elements where he has seen a significant drop in statistics in his career.
I think people are drafting the name rather than using their brains here. I think Peyton Manning is one of the greatest quarterbacks to have ever laced them up, but he has played in one system for one team with basically the same cast of characters his entire career. This year he starts all over and nobody can be even certain that he's healthy or will stay healthy after he takes his first big hit.
For all the ridicule that Tony Romo takes for his late game failings, he is still a pretty damn good quarterback. In his 4 years where he started 13 or more games he has averaged 4,081 yards passing and 30 TD's. I don't see Peyton getting anywhere close to those numbers this year.
Running Backs:
Adrian Peterson (ADP 23.3 via ESPN) vs. Darren McFadden (ADP 25.5 via ESPN)
Two running backs who didn't finish the 2011 season healthy. This will be a significant topic of discussion leading up to drafts this year as along with these two Fred Jackson, Matt Forte, DeMarco Murray, Rashard Mendenhall and Jamaal Charles all suffered season ending injuries of some sort. All but Mendenhall are tabbed as their respective teams starters and are being drafted in the top 35 picks. I will not fault owners drafting any one of these backs, but you had better not select two of them in your starting lineup.
Instead of dissecting all seven, I'll highlight 'All Day' and 'Run DMC' because they have cool nicknames. Peterson tore his ACL which is a red flag in itself for running backs. To understand that he did that on Christmas Eve should mean he doesn't play in 2012. Well...here's the thing. Adrian Peterson is a freak of nature and apparently will be making a run (no pun intended) at starting in Week 1. If that happens and he is even just above average you might win your league with him as your possible #2 back. That's in a perfect world. Reality tells me he won't be ready at the start of the season and he won't be more than average at best for the first half of the season. That's too long to wait in the fantasy world. I will be watching him closely and if I see steady improvement he may be a great trading candidate mid-season.
The best news for future owners of Darren McFadden is that Michael Bush is playing in Chicago. The Raiders will not have anybody to steal touches away from McFadden unless you think Mike Goodson is the answer and I don't. What you really need to understand, though is Darren McFadden will not play in 16 games. He just can't do it and has taken over the 'Fragile Fred' moniker from Fred Taylor. Taylor played in 40 of 64 games in his first 4 seasons in the NFL. McFadden has played in 45. I bet you didn't know that played in all 32 of his games over the next two years. Maybe there is hope for McFadden yet.
Trent Richardson (ADP 29.2 via ESPN) vs. Steven Jackson (ADP 31.5 via ESPN)
A tale of two running backs at the opposite ends of their career spectrum. Richardson is a rookie who was drafted 3rd overall and is heading to a team that provides absolutely zero competition for touches. Steven Jackson has had 7 consecutive 1,000+ rushing yard seasons and even though the Rams took a running back (Isaiah Pead) in the 2nd round, his job doesn't look to be in jeopardy once again this season. I was personally burned by drafting a rookie running back in Ryan Mathews two years ago so I can't wrap my head around going all in on Richardson.
The question for fantasy owners is do you like the steady Eddie or do you want to roll the dice on one of the best running prospects the NFL has seen in a very long time? The Cleveland Browns will still be a bad team this season. What that means is they will be playing from behind for the most part. That doesn't usually translate to a lot of rushing attempts. It's unknown whether Richardson will be a good receiving option, but if he is he will stay on the field more and be far more valuable than Steven Jackson by seasons end. The Rams had a horrific season in 2011, but it didn't stop Jackson from having decent production. You would have to believe that they will be better with a healthy Sam Bradford under center and if so Jackson may have one more elite season for fantasy owners.
Wide Receivers:
Mike Wallace (ADP 26.6 via ESPN) vs. A.J. Green (ADP 29.4 via ESPN)
You want red flags about Mike Wallace? I've got red flags. He's holding out for more money. His quarterback is the epitome of the walking wounded and now has a 'little torn rotator cuff' per ESPN. He might not even be the #1 WR on his own team. Antonio Brown saw 11 more passes go his way than did Wallace and basically matched him in receptions and yards. The only saving grace for Mike Wallace is that he hauled in 8 touchdowns (to only 2 for Brown), but touchdowns is the one stat that fantasy owners cannot fall in love with.
The Steelers could easily split those 10 touchdowns 6 to 4 instead of 8 to 2 and all of a sudden the fantasy numbers of the two receivers could be even. Right now Antonio Brown's ADP is 70.4 and it is all based on his lack of touchdowns. If Wallace misses any more of training camp it will be interesting to see if he starts slipping and Brown starts rising.
Staying in the AFC North A.J. Green is the unquestioned #1 receiver for the Cincinnati Bengals. He was the same last year during his rookie season and was rather spectacular based off his expectations. He topped 1,000 yards receiving and hauled in 7 touchdowns on only 65 receptions. Another 10 receptions gets him over 1,200 yards and another 7 touchdowns would be the cherry on top.
The 1A's vs. The 1B's in the NFC
The New York Giants, Dallas Cowboys, Philadelphia Eagles, Green Bay Packers and Atlanta Falcons all pose a problem for defenses. They all have two really good receivers that could beat you at anytime. That's all well and good for them, but for fantasy owners deciding on which on to draft could be very difficult.
Let's look at them briefly:
Atlanta - Roddy White (ADP 19.3) vs. Julio Jones (ADP 36.1)
New York - Victor Cruz (ADP 31.9) vs. Hakeem Nicks (ADP 32.2)
Philadelphia - DeSean Jackson (ADP 61.9) vs. Jeremy Maclin (ADP 63.4)
Green Bay - Greg Jennings (ADP 20.0) vs. Jordy Nelson (ADP 39.0)
Dallas - Dez Bryant (ADP 45.3) vs. Miles Austin (ADP 51.0)
That's 10 players on five teams drafted between picks 19 and 64. Not all 10 are going to have an All-Pro season, but they will all, for the most part be a #1 wide receiver on fantasy teams. So which one, and only one, would you draft?
Roddy White is the first of the 'Big 10' coming off the board, but I can easily see Julio Jones outpacing him this season. Last year as a rookie, Jones saw about half the targets, caught about half the balls as the veteran White. Jones proved to be the deep threat averaging nearly 18 yards a catch (to 13 for White) and they both had 8 touchdowns. Imagine if just 10 of those catches by Roddy White end up in Julio Jones' hands. That 1170 yards for White and 1140 for Jones based off of their average yards per catch from 2011.
Victor Cruz came out of nowhere to not only surpass both his teammates in receiving, but finished 3rd in the NFL in yards. He went undrafted in every single fantasy league in the world last year. I'm sure even Victor Cruz didn't draft Victor Cruz. There is really no way he can duplicate his 2011 stat line is there? Well Hakeem Nicks is already injured and Mario Manningham went to San Francisco. The receiver that I'm most worried about on the Giants is Nicks. A broken foot is nothing to sneeze at for a wide receiver and that is what Nicks is coming back from. If he slips due to injury concern I'd feel much better about 2 rounds later.
The Philadelphia Eagles were 'a hot mess' as the kids would say in 2011. They were anointed as Super Bowl champions before the season started and finished 8-8 (even though the actual Super Bowl winners were 9-7). The lack of health and consistency from Michael Vick tempered the numbers that DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin produced, but it wasn't all his fault. Jackson proved to be the leagues foremost prima donna by getting himself suspended after missing a team meeting. Add that to his numerous dropped balls and its a wonder people still have faith in him. Jeremy Maclin quietly caught more passes than Jackson and even had one more touchdown than him. Maybe this is the year Maclin ascends to the top spot in Philadelphia.
Greg Jennings is being drafted almost two rounds ahead of his teammate Jordy Nelson, but why? Name recognition or a longer resume? Aaron Rodgers is currently the best quarterback in the NFL and it probably doesn't matter who lines up next to him in Green Bay. They should all be quality options, but I do know that Jordy Nelson will not catch 15 touchdowns this season. He'll be lucky to do half of that. Five Packers caught six or more touchdowns and that tells me the ball gets spread around. Its the key to the Packers success, murder by numbers. Greg Jennings has had 920+ yards receiving in five straight seasons and averaged 9 touchdowns per season as well. He has easily been the most consistent receiver on the Packers, but the fact that nobody is a true #1 (just like the New Orleans Saints) is the reason why its so difficult to take one of them with your first 2-3 picks.
Neither Dez Bryant nor Miles Austin led the Dallas Cowboys in targets, receptions or yards. It wasn't Laurent Robinson either. It was Jason Witten. Jason Witten is going 60th overall in a much shallower position for fantasy owners yet that is behind both of the wide receivers in Big D. That seems kind of odd, don't you think? To say I don't have faith in either of these two receivers is an understatement. There is not reason that they should be going in rounds 4-5. You just won't get the value you want from them because of the presence of Witten who is obviously the security blanket for Tony Romo. If they fall to rounds 6 or 7 and are your #2 receiver, jump on them immediately, but don't reach for either one.
Tight Ends:
Fred Davis (ADP 103.9 via ESPN) vs. Brandon Pettigrew (ADP 107.9 via ESPN)
On one hand you have a very talented tight end who is one drug bust away from missing a full season. On the other hand you have a great blocking tight end who catches a ton of short passes. They could both potentially put up really good numbers this season and could both be on the waiver wire by mid season. Brandon Pettigrew is a much safer pick, but his ceiling is far lower than that of Fred Davis. With a rookie quarterback who can run and some new speedy wide receivers to stretch the field, the middle of the field could be wide open for him. If he plays all 16 games I expect Fred Davis to challenge for Pro Bowl honors in a very deep position in the NFC. The only thing holding Brandon Pettigrew back is how the Lions use him. He doesn't go down field enough, he doesn't get enough red zone opportunities but and he blocks too much. Outside of that he fits the mold of a very good tight end. He is just on the edge of being a reliable starter.
With the 1st pick in the 7th round (14 teams), my friend drafted Josh Freeman. Five picks later I took Matthew Stafford and wound up winning my league. My friend missed the playoffs. Sometimes it is that simple. Another example was where the team before me drafted LeGarrette Blount which forced me to shift strategy and take Larry Fitzgerald with the very next pick because I didn't like any of the next group of running backs. Later on I took Fred Jackson to compensate for not getting the stud running back in Blount that I wanted. That worked out well too.
This is why the draft is very important and sometimes it has nothing to do what you want to do. You must be prepared to scrap your entire plan on the fly because each year is different, each draft is unique and every competing owner is unpredictable. Not to mention we really have no clue how each player will perform in the upcoming season. All you can do as a fantasy owner is to draft players who you think will have the greatest success and get you the best value for your pick.
I'm going to take a look at some of the decisions you might have to make in your upcoming draft. It could be the difference between playing for a trophy or dancing in a tutu for your friends and coworkers. Don't end up dancing in a tutu for your friends and coworkers.
Quarterbacks:
Eli Manning (ADP 31.9 via ESPN) vs. Michael Vick (ADP 31.9 via ESPN)
One quarterback has won two Super Bowls and one quarterback has hinted that his team is on the verge of a dynasty. Last year Michael Vick went 1st overall in my league and that owner went 3-10. Eli Manning went 93rd overall as a backup and his owner went 10-2-1. Nobody would have predicted that Manning would have 450 points to Vick's 271, but it happened and because of it they are a toss up this season. For years Eli has been seen a great fantasy backup quarterback, but could never be trusted upon to start week in and week out. I think that title has now fallen to Jay Cutler, but we'll discuss that another time.
The Giants have two stud receivers in Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz and the Eagles receivers, DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin aren't too shabby either. Eli Manning hasn't missed a game since becoming the starter in New York, while Michael Vick has played in only 25 of 32 games since the start of the 2010 season. Eli Manning cannot and will not run for points for your fantasy team (4 rushing TD's in his 8 year career) whereas Michael Vick has 12 rushing TD's in the last 3 years alone.
The most difficult words to hear for a fantasy owner when describing a player are 'when healthy'. When healthy Michael Vick is a great fantasy weapon. Same for Darren McFadden and Andre Johnson, but when they aren't healthy...which is A LOT...they are useless to you. I understand why owners are enamored with Vick, hell I drafted him 1st overall in 2003, but that risk is tough to overcome for a 3rd round pick. For Manning owners know what they are going to get. Nothing too flashy, the occasional brain fart game (see Week 15 vs. Washington which eliminated a ton of Manning owners from their playoffs), but a real steady starting quarterback by seasons end.
The ironic thing about these two quarterbacks is that Eli Manning would have been the perfect back up to Michael Vick last year and this year a quarterback in the same mold as Vick, Robert Griffin III, will be a perfect back up for Eli Manning in a 10 team league.
Peyton Manning (ADP 41.9 via ESPN) vs. Tony Romo (ADP 47.9 via ESPN)
So you're telling me that a quarterback coming off of at least 4 neck 'procedures' who is 36 years old and didn't play last season is being drafted ahead of a quarterback who topped 4,000 yards and 30 TD's in a supposed down year for him? Tony Romo has Miles Austin, Dez Bryant and Jason Witten to throw to and plays at least half of his games in a dome on turf. Peyton Manning has Eric Decker, Demaryius Thomas and Jacob Tamme as his best weapons and will be playing outdoors in the elements where he has seen a significant drop in statistics in his career.
I think people are drafting the name rather than using their brains here. I think Peyton Manning is one of the greatest quarterbacks to have ever laced them up, but he has played in one system for one team with basically the same cast of characters his entire career. This year he starts all over and nobody can be even certain that he's healthy or will stay healthy after he takes his first big hit.
For all the ridicule that Tony Romo takes for his late game failings, he is still a pretty damn good quarterback. In his 4 years where he started 13 or more games he has averaged 4,081 yards passing and 30 TD's. I don't see Peyton getting anywhere close to those numbers this year.
Running Backs:
Adrian Peterson (ADP 23.3 via ESPN) vs. Darren McFadden (ADP 25.5 via ESPN)
Two running backs who didn't finish the 2011 season healthy. This will be a significant topic of discussion leading up to drafts this year as along with these two Fred Jackson, Matt Forte, DeMarco Murray, Rashard Mendenhall and Jamaal Charles all suffered season ending injuries of some sort. All but Mendenhall are tabbed as their respective teams starters and are being drafted in the top 35 picks. I will not fault owners drafting any one of these backs, but you had better not select two of them in your starting lineup.
Instead of dissecting all seven, I'll highlight 'All Day' and 'Run DMC' because they have cool nicknames. Peterson tore his ACL which is a red flag in itself for running backs. To understand that he did that on Christmas Eve should mean he doesn't play in 2012. Well...here's the thing. Adrian Peterson is a freak of nature and apparently will be making a run (no pun intended) at starting in Week 1. If that happens and he is even just above average you might win your league with him as your possible #2 back. That's in a perfect world. Reality tells me he won't be ready at the start of the season and he won't be more than average at best for the first half of the season. That's too long to wait in the fantasy world. I will be watching him closely and if I see steady improvement he may be a great trading candidate mid-season.
The best news for future owners of Darren McFadden is that Michael Bush is playing in Chicago. The Raiders will not have anybody to steal touches away from McFadden unless you think Mike Goodson is the answer and I don't. What you really need to understand, though is Darren McFadden will not play in 16 games. He just can't do it and has taken over the 'Fragile Fred' moniker from Fred Taylor. Taylor played in 40 of 64 games in his first 4 seasons in the NFL. McFadden has played in 45. I bet you didn't know that played in all 32 of his games over the next two years. Maybe there is hope for McFadden yet.
Trent Richardson (ADP 29.2 via ESPN) vs. Steven Jackson (ADP 31.5 via ESPN)
A tale of two running backs at the opposite ends of their career spectrum. Richardson is a rookie who was drafted 3rd overall and is heading to a team that provides absolutely zero competition for touches. Steven Jackson has had 7 consecutive 1,000+ rushing yard seasons and even though the Rams took a running back (Isaiah Pead) in the 2nd round, his job doesn't look to be in jeopardy once again this season. I was personally burned by drafting a rookie running back in Ryan Mathews two years ago so I can't wrap my head around going all in on Richardson.
The question for fantasy owners is do you like the steady Eddie or do you want to roll the dice on one of the best running prospects the NFL has seen in a very long time? The Cleveland Browns will still be a bad team this season. What that means is they will be playing from behind for the most part. That doesn't usually translate to a lot of rushing attempts. It's unknown whether Richardson will be a good receiving option, but if he is he will stay on the field more and be far more valuable than Steven Jackson by seasons end. The Rams had a horrific season in 2011, but it didn't stop Jackson from having decent production. You would have to believe that they will be better with a healthy Sam Bradford under center and if so Jackson may have one more elite season for fantasy owners.
Wide Receivers:
Mike Wallace (ADP 26.6 via ESPN) vs. A.J. Green (ADP 29.4 via ESPN)
You want red flags about Mike Wallace? I've got red flags. He's holding out for more money. His quarterback is the epitome of the walking wounded and now has a 'little torn rotator cuff' per ESPN. He might not even be the #1 WR on his own team. Antonio Brown saw 11 more passes go his way than did Wallace and basically matched him in receptions and yards. The only saving grace for Mike Wallace is that he hauled in 8 touchdowns (to only 2 for Brown), but touchdowns is the one stat that fantasy owners cannot fall in love with.
The Steelers could easily split those 10 touchdowns 6 to 4 instead of 8 to 2 and all of a sudden the fantasy numbers of the two receivers could be even. Right now Antonio Brown's ADP is 70.4 and it is all based on his lack of touchdowns. If Wallace misses any more of training camp it will be interesting to see if he starts slipping and Brown starts rising.
Staying in the AFC North A.J. Green is the unquestioned #1 receiver for the Cincinnati Bengals. He was the same last year during his rookie season and was rather spectacular based off his expectations. He topped 1,000 yards receiving and hauled in 7 touchdowns on only 65 receptions. Another 10 receptions gets him over 1,200 yards and another 7 touchdowns would be the cherry on top.
The 1A's vs. The 1B's in the NFC
The New York Giants, Dallas Cowboys, Philadelphia Eagles, Green Bay Packers and Atlanta Falcons all pose a problem for defenses. They all have two really good receivers that could beat you at anytime. That's all well and good for them, but for fantasy owners deciding on which on to draft could be very difficult.
Let's look at them briefly:
Atlanta - Roddy White (ADP 19.3) vs. Julio Jones (ADP 36.1)
New York - Victor Cruz (ADP 31.9) vs. Hakeem Nicks (ADP 32.2)
Philadelphia - DeSean Jackson (ADP 61.9) vs. Jeremy Maclin (ADP 63.4)
Green Bay - Greg Jennings (ADP 20.0) vs. Jordy Nelson (ADP 39.0)
Dallas - Dez Bryant (ADP 45.3) vs. Miles Austin (ADP 51.0)
That's 10 players on five teams drafted between picks 19 and 64. Not all 10 are going to have an All-Pro season, but they will all, for the most part be a #1 wide receiver on fantasy teams. So which one, and only one, would you draft?
Roddy White is the first of the 'Big 10' coming off the board, but I can easily see Julio Jones outpacing him this season. Last year as a rookie, Jones saw about half the targets, caught about half the balls as the veteran White. Jones proved to be the deep threat averaging nearly 18 yards a catch (to 13 for White) and they both had 8 touchdowns. Imagine if just 10 of those catches by Roddy White end up in Julio Jones' hands. That 1170 yards for White and 1140 for Jones based off of their average yards per catch from 2011.
Victor Cruz came out of nowhere to not only surpass both his teammates in receiving, but finished 3rd in the NFL in yards. He went undrafted in every single fantasy league in the world last year. I'm sure even Victor Cruz didn't draft Victor Cruz. There is really no way he can duplicate his 2011 stat line is there? Well Hakeem Nicks is already injured and Mario Manningham went to San Francisco. The receiver that I'm most worried about on the Giants is Nicks. A broken foot is nothing to sneeze at for a wide receiver and that is what Nicks is coming back from. If he slips due to injury concern I'd feel much better about 2 rounds later.
The Philadelphia Eagles were 'a hot mess' as the kids would say in 2011. They were anointed as Super Bowl champions before the season started and finished 8-8 (even though the actual Super Bowl winners were 9-7). The lack of health and consistency from Michael Vick tempered the numbers that DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin produced, but it wasn't all his fault. Jackson proved to be the leagues foremost prima donna by getting himself suspended after missing a team meeting. Add that to his numerous dropped balls and its a wonder people still have faith in him. Jeremy Maclin quietly caught more passes than Jackson and even had one more touchdown than him. Maybe this is the year Maclin ascends to the top spot in Philadelphia.
Greg Jennings is being drafted almost two rounds ahead of his teammate Jordy Nelson, but why? Name recognition or a longer resume? Aaron Rodgers is currently the best quarterback in the NFL and it probably doesn't matter who lines up next to him in Green Bay. They should all be quality options, but I do know that Jordy Nelson will not catch 15 touchdowns this season. He'll be lucky to do half of that. Five Packers caught six or more touchdowns and that tells me the ball gets spread around. Its the key to the Packers success, murder by numbers. Greg Jennings has had 920+ yards receiving in five straight seasons and averaged 9 touchdowns per season as well. He has easily been the most consistent receiver on the Packers, but the fact that nobody is a true #1 (just like the New Orleans Saints) is the reason why its so difficult to take one of them with your first 2-3 picks.
Neither Dez Bryant nor Miles Austin led the Dallas Cowboys in targets, receptions or yards. It wasn't Laurent Robinson either. It was Jason Witten. Jason Witten is going 60th overall in a much shallower position for fantasy owners yet that is behind both of the wide receivers in Big D. That seems kind of odd, don't you think? To say I don't have faith in either of these two receivers is an understatement. There is not reason that they should be going in rounds 4-5. You just won't get the value you want from them because of the presence of Witten who is obviously the security blanket for Tony Romo. If they fall to rounds 6 or 7 and are your #2 receiver, jump on them immediately, but don't reach for either one.
Tight Ends:
Fred Davis (ADP 103.9 via ESPN) vs. Brandon Pettigrew (ADP 107.9 via ESPN)
On one hand you have a very talented tight end who is one drug bust away from missing a full season. On the other hand you have a great blocking tight end who catches a ton of short passes. They could both potentially put up really good numbers this season and could both be on the waiver wire by mid season. Brandon Pettigrew is a much safer pick, but his ceiling is far lower than that of Fred Davis. With a rookie quarterback who can run and some new speedy wide receivers to stretch the field, the middle of the field could be wide open for him. If he plays all 16 games I expect Fred Davis to challenge for Pro Bowl honors in a very deep position in the NFC. The only thing holding Brandon Pettigrew back is how the Lions use him. He doesn't go down field enough, he doesn't get enough red zone opportunities but and he blocks too much. Outside of that he fits the mold of a very good tight end. He is just on the edge of being a reliable starter.
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