Congratulations to the Baltimore Ravens on winning the Super Bowl over the San Francisco 49ers. Whether you doubt the legality of having injured superstars Ray Lewis and Terrell Suggs back so soon or not, the Ravens will go down in history as champions. The 49ers franchise suffered their first ever loss in the Super Bowl after five victories, but Colin Kaepernick looks to give them a shot at getting back there again.
I did my 2nd annual NFL Crystal Ball right before the season and now it is time to see how I did.
1st prediction was that RGIII would play in 16 games. Correct!! Yeah, yeah he missed a game, but played in a playoff game so 16 games it was.
2nd prediction that Norv Turner wouldn't make it as head coach of the Chargers past their Bye Week in Week 7. 1/2 points! He was dead coach walking by that time and was finally fired after the season.
Standings Predictions: (actual records in parenthesis)
NFC East
Philadelphia Eagles 12-4 (4-12)
Dallas Cowboys 10-6 (8-8)
New York Giants 9-7 (9-7)
Washington Redskins 6-10 (10-6)
NFC North
Green Bay Packers 14-2 (11-5)
Chicago Bears 11-5 (10-6)
Detroit Lions 8-8 (4-12)
Minnesota Vikings 4-12 (10-6)
NFC South
Atlanta Falcons 13-3 (13-3)
New Orleans Saints 10-6 (7-9)
Carolina Panthers 7-9 (7-9)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3-13 (7-9)
NFC West
San Francisco 49ers 11-5 (11-4-1)
Seattle Seahawks 5-11 (11-5)
St. Louis Rams 5-11 (7-8-1)
Arizona Cardinals 4-12 (5-11)
AFC East
New England Patriots 13-3 (12-4)
New York Jets 10-6 (6-10)
Buffalo Bills 6-10 (6-10)
Miami Dolphins 6-10 (7-9)
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens 12-4 (10-6)
Pittsburgh Steelers 9-7 (8-8)
Cincinnati Bengals 9-7 (10-6)
Cleveland Browns 2-14 (5-11)
AFC South
Houston Texans 12-4 (12-4)
Tennessee Titans 7-9 (6-10)
Indianapolis Colts 6-10 (11-5)
Jacksonville Jaguars 2-14 (2-14)
AFC West
Denver Broncos 11-5 (13-3)
Oakland Raiders 8-8 (4-12)
Kansas City Chiefs 7-9 (2-14)
San Diego Chargers 4-12 (7-9)
Hit and miss obviously. I did get 7 of the 8 division winners correct missing only my Washington Redskins. Biggest misses were the Philadelphia Eagles and Seattle Seahawks in the NFC and Kansas City Chiefs and both the New York Jets and Indianapolis Colts in the AFC.
I predicted Tom Brady to win the MVP over Matt Ryan and while they both had good seasons it was Adrian Peterson who won the award over Peyton Manning. Two huge injury risks heading into the season somehow not only managed to stay healthy, but perform well beyond expectations. Deer antler spray for everyone!!!
In my Suprises/Breakouts section I chose:
Jake Locker- 2/10 Locker played in just 11 games and totaled 11 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. A mid-season injury derailed any possibility at building upon a promising finish to the 2011 season.
Jeremy Maclin- 6/10 A good bounce back season for Maclin who still produced as the city of Philadelphia was burning down around him. He still didn't match the 2010 season though.
Donald Brown- 0/10 Ugh. I hitched my ride to him this season and was burnt badly. After 3 years of steady progression, Brown took a major step backwards in his now fledgling career.
Torrey Smith- 4/10 Even with 15 more targets than last season, Smith's numbers were practically identical to 2011. He continues to be high risk/high reward for fantasy owners.
Vernon Davis- 1/10 It took until the playoffs to see the 49ers finally use Davis properly, but he was a major fantasy disappointment all regular season.
In my Disappointments section I chose:
Maurice Jones-Drew- 10/10 When will RB's learn not to hold out. MJD suffered through a terrible season all stemming back to not being at practice.
Ryan Mathews- 9/10 He started injured, ended injured and didn't do much in between scoring just once in a forgettable season.
Vincent Jackson- 0/10 A new team rejuvenated Jackson who had a career high in receiving yardage and caught 8 touchdowns...oops!
Victor Cruz- 4/10 His receiving yardage dropped by nearly 500 yards, but he still hauled in 10 touchdowns which was one more than last year.
Matthew Stafford- 8/10 His TD's were cut in half while throwing one more INT than last year. He still threw for nearly 5,000 useless yards.
The Playoffs:
I went 7/12 (all division winners) and missed both Super Bowl participants (Houston over Atlanta in mine).
Not horrible, but not great.
The emergence of Colin Kaepernick, RGIII and Russell Wilson to how the quarterback position is played is what I will take away from this season. All three did things that I didn't think were possible while pocket passers like Brady, Brees and Manning still produced big numbers. It's a special era we're witnessing for quarterback play. The quarterback position will be DEEP in fantasy football next season...wait, wait and wait for one to fall.
Early prediction for Super Bowl 48 that will probably change by September: Denver over Seattle as Manning pulls off a Ray Lewis and rides off into the sunset on top.
Showing posts with label steelers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label steelers. Show all posts
Monday, February 4, 2013
Monday, September 10, 2012
Weekend In Review 9/10/12
...and I'm spent.
Thursday night: Burger grand opening at ZBurger w/ Philly cheese steaks, custard, fries, hot dogs, onion rings and some milkshakes (not necessarily in that order).
Friday night: Burger grand opening at Kraze: w/ fries and a milkshake
Saturday: College Football, work, survived a mini hurricane, dodged a tornado and got some pizza (must find veggies this week)
Sunday: Football, Baseball, Golf, Tennis, Fantasy Football (and still no veggies...do Doritos count?)
If your weekend was like that or maybe you went on Burger Days VI (www.burgerdays.com) you may have missed something...let me catch you up.
10. BMW Championship
I went out on a limb on Thursday and called that Tiger Woods would win this week. Well that didn't happen as Rory McIlroy continued his recent dominance winning for the second week in a row. Tiger finished T-4th, three shots behind. Phil Mickelson remembered that he was once good and came on strong over the weekend tying for second place. With next weeks Tour Championship starting on Thursday, the golf world will be all abuzz with the three biggest draws finally playing well at the same time. McIlroy has put his early season distractions aside and is proving to be the prodigy that everyone thought he was going to be. It will be difficult to go against him winning a third straight and the FedEx Cup in Atlanta.
9. College Football - Upset Alert
Behind six touchdown passes from Matt Barkley, USC eased by Syracuse in New Jersey (although they didn't cover...sorry Luis, I warned you). Florida St. was a 70.5 point favorite over Savannah 'thanks for the $' St. and led 28-0 seven minutes into the game. Then the weather took over. A couple of rain delays and 27 more points later, the game was mercifully called in the 3rd quarter canceling the spread and saving a lot of people some money because it would have been 80-0 easy. As for the games I figured were going to be close. Missouri played a good three quarters, but Georgia played all four quarters, ruining the Tigers first SEC game, losing 41-20. My upset pick at work (trust me) was Wisconsin losing to Oregon St. outright and they did 10-7, scoring their only points with less than 2 minutes left in the game. Nebraska went out west to play UCLA and got upended in a great game 36-30. Of course I can't forget to point out the embarrassment that was Arkansas who got caught looking ahead to #1 Alabama next week by getting utterly shocked by Louisiana-Monroe (who??) 34-31 in OT. Yikes!
8. Washington Redskins at New Orleans Saints
Control yourself Jason...settle down...SUPER BOWL HERE WE COME!!! Stop that...sorry for the outburst, but did you see RGIII? He looked good, real good. Of course so did Cam Newton last season after a week and Carolina finished 6-10 and looked pitiful Sunday. All the gadgets, the speed, the offense that was hidden during preseason was unleashed as #10 led the Redskins to 10 points in each quarter to upend the Saints 40-32. I give credit to Drew Brees on never giving in and keeping me on the edge of my seat down to the final play of the game, but his brilliance wasn't enough this weekend. Is it the Super Bowl host city curse?? Maybe, but I'm thrilled to see the Redskins finally show some excitement on the offensive side of the ball. RGIII FOR MVP...NO WAIT HALL OF FAME!!!! Agghhh I can't stop myself.
7. San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers
It appears that the Packers have found their Kryptonite...a really good defense. Two straight games now (dating back to the playoffs against the Giants) the vaunted Green Bay offense was held in check in a loss. Both times at home and in relatively similar fashion this time falling by a score of 30-22 (37-20 vs. New York in the playoffs). The 49ers stuffed the non existent running game of the Packers and pressured Aaron Rodgers just enough to keep him off balance. Green Bay needs to find some offensive balance or one of two things is bound to happen: either they will lose again in the playoffs or Rodgers arm will fall off by Thanksgiving. San Francisco is going to be the real deal again this season. Their offense is leaps and bounds better with Randy Moss and great depth at running back.
6. Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Rays
4, 6 and 6. The total runs scored in each game. Good pitching won this weekend as it is apt to do come September and October. Tampa Bay took two of three games keeping themselves close in the Wild Card and the A.L. East races. The Rangers saw their lead in the A.L. West shrink to 3.5 games over Oakland as the Athletics swept the Seattle Mariners. Saturday was a great pitchers duel between Yu Darvish andDavid Price Chris Archer (who stepped in for the injured ace) as they combined for 15 in, 6 H, 4 BB, 3 ER and 19 K's. Neither received a decision as Texas won their lone game of the series in extra innings. James Shields lived up to his moniker of 'Big Game James' as he utterly dominated a strong Rangers lineup throwing a complete game 2 hit shutout and was aided by a three home run game from B.J. Upton.
5. U.S. Open Tennis
The weather was the big winner of the weekend as rain caused havoc on the schedule. The Men's Final has been pushed to 4pm today and it will be...drum roll please...Andy Murray vs. Novak Djokovic. I am as shocked as you are folks. As soon as Roger Federer lost, we knew it would come down to the last of the Big 4 and it did. The women's side was much more tightly contested even though it ended as was expected. Maria Sharapova and Victoria Azarenka played a wonderful three set match in which the #1 seed Azaranka pulled out winning the last two sets. Serena Williams continued to cruise through the Open as she crushed Sara Errani in straight sets. This set up a dream match up for fans and they were treated to some high level, high intensity tennis. Serena won the first set with ease again and I thought the tournament was over. Azarenka had other thoughts as she turned the tables, thumping Williams to force a winner take all third set. Serena was broken early and then broke back. At 3-3 her serve was broken again giving Azarenka a 4-3 lead which she stretched to 5-3. Serena fought back, cutting it to 5-4 and then broke Azarenka who was serving for the match to even the third set at 5 games apiece. Serena held serve and broke Azarenka again to win the championship. It was enthralling and I'm so happy I brought the small television to the man cave and didn't have to miss it.
4. Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants
The Dodgers had a great chance to make the N.L. West a true race with a strong weekend, but things got worse for them as the days went by. On Friday, Giants starter Tim Lincecum tried everything in his power to let the Dodgers win. He walked 7 batters in 6.1 innings, but Los Angeles couldn't get the big hit stranding 11 runners in a 5-2 loss where San Francisco scored 4 runs in their final three at bats. Saturday came and the Dodgers were without Matt Kemp who is suffering from a sore shoulder. They had to face Matt Cain and fared as expected as they were trailing 2-1 going to the 8th inning. They tied the score and chased Cain and then got the go ahead and eventual winning run in the 9th. Knowing they had Clayton Kershaw going on Sunday, the Dodgers had to feel excited about taking the series. Then word came Sunday afternoon that Kershaw was scratched with an injury. That must have deflated the locker room as Barry Zito (yes, him) dominated Los Angeles with 6.1 shutout innings as the Giants won 4-0 to extend their lead to 5.5 games.
3. Detroit Tigers at Los Angeles Angels
Somebody in the Detroit locker room better send the Kansas City Royals a thank you card. The Tigers rolled into Los Angeles to face the scorching hot Angels and got swept right out of town. They only lost a game in the standings to the White Sox thanks to Kansas City winning two of three, but have practically fallen out of the Wild Card race. The Angels, on the other hand, have won 6 in a row and 11 of 12 as they welcome Oakland to southern California for a four game series after just taking three straight in Oakland. They are 2.5 games behind the Athletics and 6 behind Texas. Detroit had best lick their wounds quickly as they fly to Chicago to battle the White Sox in their own four game mega-series. Oh about the Verlander-Trout match up...yeah Trout hit a bomb off of Justin in the 1st inning...statement made.
2. New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles
This was the exact opposite series than that of the Rangers/Rays series. 16, 13, 9, 16. That's a lot of runs by two good hitting, average pitching teams. The Orioles won the first game behind 6 home runs, but the Yankees struck back in game two with 3 home runs of their own (as did the Orioles...remember pitching optional) to win. Game three was the 'pitchers duel' of the series between C.C. Sabathia, who is clearly pitching injured, and Joe Saunders. Yup, grasping at straws here. The Orioles hit three more home runs to win another one run game. They tied the Yankees for 1st again, but lost lead off hitter Nick Markakis to a broken hand. This must have stung the Baltimore clubhouse because they got thrashed on Sunday 13-3, failing again at their chance to stand alone atop the A.L. East. Life doesn't getting any easier for Baltimore as Tampa Bay strolls into town with a chance to knock the Orioles to third place.
1. Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos
Welcome back Peyton Manning. The NFL missed you while you were gone. After sitting out a year with a neck injury and switching teams, Manning didn't skip a beat. After each team started slowly, things got going in the second quarter when Knoshown Moreno scampered in for a score. Big Ben took the Steelers right down the field and hit Heath Miller for a touchdown as the 1st half ended. Pittsburgh got the ball back to start the 3rd quarter and used 9 minutes to score 3 points. In real time, Peyton Manning didn't run an actual play from scrimmage (kneel down doesn't count to me) in an hour and now trailed 13-7. Two plays and 36 seconds later, it was 14-13 Broncos as Manning connected with Demaryius Thomas on a 71 yard score. Pittsburgh then controlled the ball for the remainder of the 3rd quarter, but still trailed by 1 point. That didn't last long as the Steelers scored in the first minute to go up 19-14. Then Peyton took over. He led the Broncos on back to back scoring drives for 10 points giving them a 25-19 lead and Tracy Porter sealed the deal for Denver with a pick-six touchdown (as he is known to do).
Thursday night: Burger grand opening at ZBurger w/ Philly cheese steaks, custard, fries, hot dogs, onion rings and some milkshakes (not necessarily in that order).
Friday night: Burger grand opening at Kraze: w/ fries and a milkshake
Saturday: College Football, work, survived a mini hurricane, dodged a tornado and got some pizza (must find veggies this week)
Sunday: Football, Baseball, Golf, Tennis, Fantasy Football (and still no veggies...do Doritos count?)
If your weekend was like that or maybe you went on Burger Days VI (www.burgerdays.com) you may have missed something...let me catch you up.
10. BMW Championship
I went out on a limb on Thursday and called that Tiger Woods would win this week. Well that didn't happen as Rory McIlroy continued his recent dominance winning for the second week in a row. Tiger finished T-4th, three shots behind. Phil Mickelson remembered that he was once good and came on strong over the weekend tying for second place. With next weeks Tour Championship starting on Thursday, the golf world will be all abuzz with the three biggest draws finally playing well at the same time. McIlroy has put his early season distractions aside and is proving to be the prodigy that everyone thought he was going to be. It will be difficult to go against him winning a third straight and the FedEx Cup in Atlanta.
9. College Football - Upset Alert
Behind six touchdown passes from Matt Barkley, USC eased by Syracuse in New Jersey (although they didn't cover...sorry Luis, I warned you). Florida St. was a 70.5 point favorite over Savannah 'thanks for the $' St. and led 28-0 seven minutes into the game. Then the weather took over. A couple of rain delays and 27 more points later, the game was mercifully called in the 3rd quarter canceling the spread and saving a lot of people some money because it would have been 80-0 easy. As for the games I figured were going to be close. Missouri played a good three quarters, but Georgia played all four quarters, ruining the Tigers first SEC game, losing 41-20. My upset pick at work (trust me) was Wisconsin losing to Oregon St. outright and they did 10-7, scoring their only points with less than 2 minutes left in the game. Nebraska went out west to play UCLA and got upended in a great game 36-30. Of course I can't forget to point out the embarrassment that was Arkansas who got caught looking ahead to #1 Alabama next week by getting utterly shocked by Louisiana-Monroe (who??) 34-31 in OT. Yikes!
8. Washington Redskins at New Orleans Saints
Control yourself Jason...settle down...SUPER BOWL HERE WE COME!!! Stop that...sorry for the outburst, but did you see RGIII? He looked good, real good. Of course so did Cam Newton last season after a week and Carolina finished 6-10 and looked pitiful Sunday. All the gadgets, the speed, the offense that was hidden during preseason was unleashed as #10 led the Redskins to 10 points in each quarter to upend the Saints 40-32. I give credit to Drew Brees on never giving in and keeping me on the edge of my seat down to the final play of the game, but his brilliance wasn't enough this weekend. Is it the Super Bowl host city curse?? Maybe, but I'm thrilled to see the Redskins finally show some excitement on the offensive side of the ball. RGIII FOR MVP...NO WAIT HALL OF FAME!!!! Agghhh I can't stop myself.
7. San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers
It appears that the Packers have found their Kryptonite...a really good defense. Two straight games now (dating back to the playoffs against the Giants) the vaunted Green Bay offense was held in check in a loss. Both times at home and in relatively similar fashion this time falling by a score of 30-22 (37-20 vs. New York in the playoffs). The 49ers stuffed the non existent running game of the Packers and pressured Aaron Rodgers just enough to keep him off balance. Green Bay needs to find some offensive balance or one of two things is bound to happen: either they will lose again in the playoffs or Rodgers arm will fall off by Thanksgiving. San Francisco is going to be the real deal again this season. Their offense is leaps and bounds better with Randy Moss and great depth at running back.
6. Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Rays
4, 6 and 6. The total runs scored in each game. Good pitching won this weekend as it is apt to do come September and October. Tampa Bay took two of three games keeping themselves close in the Wild Card and the A.L. East races. The Rangers saw their lead in the A.L. West shrink to 3.5 games over Oakland as the Athletics swept the Seattle Mariners. Saturday was a great pitchers duel between Yu Darvish and
5. U.S. Open Tennis
The weather was the big winner of the weekend as rain caused havoc on the schedule. The Men's Final has been pushed to 4pm today and it will be...drum roll please...Andy Murray vs. Novak Djokovic. I am as shocked as you are folks. As soon as Roger Federer lost, we knew it would come down to the last of the Big 4 and it did. The women's side was much more tightly contested even though it ended as was expected. Maria Sharapova and Victoria Azarenka played a wonderful three set match in which the #1 seed Azaranka pulled out winning the last two sets. Serena Williams continued to cruise through the Open as she crushed Sara Errani in straight sets. This set up a dream match up for fans and they were treated to some high level, high intensity tennis. Serena won the first set with ease again and I thought the tournament was over. Azarenka had other thoughts as she turned the tables, thumping Williams to force a winner take all third set. Serena was broken early and then broke back. At 3-3 her serve was broken again giving Azarenka a 4-3 lead which she stretched to 5-3. Serena fought back, cutting it to 5-4 and then broke Azarenka who was serving for the match to even the third set at 5 games apiece. Serena held serve and broke Azarenka again to win the championship. It was enthralling and I'm so happy I brought the small television to the man cave and didn't have to miss it.
4. Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants
The Dodgers had a great chance to make the N.L. West a true race with a strong weekend, but things got worse for them as the days went by. On Friday, Giants starter Tim Lincecum tried everything in his power to let the Dodgers win. He walked 7 batters in 6.1 innings, but Los Angeles couldn't get the big hit stranding 11 runners in a 5-2 loss where San Francisco scored 4 runs in their final three at bats. Saturday came and the Dodgers were without Matt Kemp who is suffering from a sore shoulder. They had to face Matt Cain and fared as expected as they were trailing 2-1 going to the 8th inning. They tied the score and chased Cain and then got the go ahead and eventual winning run in the 9th. Knowing they had Clayton Kershaw going on Sunday, the Dodgers had to feel excited about taking the series. Then word came Sunday afternoon that Kershaw was scratched with an injury. That must have deflated the locker room as Barry Zito (yes, him) dominated Los Angeles with 6.1 shutout innings as the Giants won 4-0 to extend their lead to 5.5 games.
3. Detroit Tigers at Los Angeles Angels
Somebody in the Detroit locker room better send the Kansas City Royals a thank you card. The Tigers rolled into Los Angeles to face the scorching hot Angels and got swept right out of town. They only lost a game in the standings to the White Sox thanks to Kansas City winning two of three, but have practically fallen out of the Wild Card race. The Angels, on the other hand, have won 6 in a row and 11 of 12 as they welcome Oakland to southern California for a four game series after just taking three straight in Oakland. They are 2.5 games behind the Athletics and 6 behind Texas. Detroit had best lick their wounds quickly as they fly to Chicago to battle the White Sox in their own four game mega-series. Oh about the Verlander-Trout match up...yeah Trout hit a bomb off of Justin in the 1st inning...statement made.
2. New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles
This was the exact opposite series than that of the Rangers/Rays series. 16, 13, 9, 16. That's a lot of runs by two good hitting, average pitching teams. The Orioles won the first game behind 6 home runs, but the Yankees struck back in game two with 3 home runs of their own (as did the Orioles...remember pitching optional) to win. Game three was the 'pitchers duel' of the series between C.C. Sabathia, who is clearly pitching injured, and Joe Saunders. Yup, grasping at straws here. The Orioles hit three more home runs to win another one run game. They tied the Yankees for 1st again, but lost lead off hitter Nick Markakis to a broken hand. This must have stung the Baltimore clubhouse because they got thrashed on Sunday 13-3, failing again at their chance to stand alone atop the A.L. East. Life doesn't getting any easier for Baltimore as Tampa Bay strolls into town with a chance to knock the Orioles to third place.
1. Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos
Welcome back Peyton Manning. The NFL missed you while you were gone. After sitting out a year with a neck injury and switching teams, Manning didn't skip a beat. After each team started slowly, things got going in the second quarter when Knoshown Moreno scampered in for a score. Big Ben took the Steelers right down the field and hit Heath Miller for a touchdown as the 1st half ended. Pittsburgh got the ball back to start the 3rd quarter and used 9 minutes to score 3 points. In real time, Peyton Manning didn't run an actual play from scrimmage (kneel down doesn't count to me) in an hour and now trailed 13-7. Two plays and 36 seconds later, it was 14-13 Broncos as Manning connected with Demaryius Thomas on a 71 yard score. Pittsburgh then controlled the ball for the remainder of the 3rd quarter, but still trailed by 1 point. That didn't last long as the Steelers scored in the first minute to go up 19-14. Then Peyton took over. He led the Broncos on back to back scoring drives for 10 points giving them a 25-19 lead and Tracy Porter sealed the deal for Denver with a pick-six touchdown (as he is known to do).
Thursday, September 6, 2012
Weekend Viewing Guide 9/6/12
Last week welcomed College Football back and this weekend it is all about the NFL. Wednesday night got it all started as the Dallas Cowboys went into New York and stunned the Giants. I predicted the Cowboys to make the playoffs and the Giants not to, so good start through one game!!
The week in baseball has been a crazy one with the Orioles and Rays continuing to inch closer to the New York Yankees in the A.L. East. The Detroit Tigers stumbled a bit against the lowly Cleveland Indians as the Chicago White Sox regained a one game advantage in the A.L. Central. The Texas Rangers took advantage of playing the Kansas City Royals by extending their lead out west to 5 games as the Los Angeles Angels swept away the once hot Oakland Athletics in Oakland. Not only did the Athletics lose, but they also lost starting pitcher Brandon McCarthy after he took a ball off the head hit back at him. There are now five teams within 3 games of the two Wild Card spots in the American League.
In the National League, the Washington Nationals are in total cruise control even with the impending shutdown of Stephen Strasburg. Their lead is 7.5 games and a divisional crown is only a matter of time now. The same can be said in the Central where the Cincinnati Reds continue to maintain a sizable advantage over both the St. Louis Cardinals and Pittsburgh Pirates. Needless to say, both of those divisions are sewed up, but that can't be said about the N.L. West. The Los Angeles Dodgers are trying to hang in the race with the San Francisco Giants with their new $8 billion roster. The Wild Card has four teams within 1.5 games and two others on the fringes at 6.5 games back.
This weekend will continue to paint the playoff picture for baseball fans, but all of that will get overshadowed by the first weekend of the NFL. Mix in some PGA playoffs, the end of the U.S. Open and the second weekend of College Football and boy do we have a fun 72 hours ahead in the world of sports.
Here's what you should be watching:
10. BMW Championship
Last weekend Rory McIlroy won the Deutsche Bank Championship for his 3rd victory of the season and tied Tiger Woods for top spot in that category. He also took the lead in the FedEx Cup standings with this weekend and next weekend as the final two events. I am predicting that Tiger Woods answers back and finally puts together a complete tournament to win this weekend. That should set up a glorious final weekend in Atlanta to decide the Cup winner. Take advantage of this moment in time with both McIlroy and Woods playing high level golf because the window could close anytime as Woods hands the torch to McIlroy as the World's greatest active golfer.
9. College Football-Upset Alert
No marquee games this weekend with the NFL starting, but there are a couple of teams that should be on high alert for an upset. No, I am not talking about Florida St. who is a scant 70.5 point favorite to beat Savannah St. (not that I was looking or anything). Southern Cal might be traveling cross country, but they should handle Syracuse with ease. Missouri is welcomed to the SEC by hosting #7 Georgia and it should be a good test for the Bulldogs. #13 Wisconsin struggled to beat Northern Iowa and now has to go west to face Oregon St. who has yet to play this season. The final game that could bring an upset is #16 Nebraska who heads to Los Angeles to take on UCLA. Not the greatest slate of games, but its still better than nothing.
8. Washington Redskins at New Orleans Saints
Okay I admit this was has a bit of personal backing to it, but I think everyone is eager to see what RGIII can do in the NFL. With apologies to Andrew Luck, Indianapolis is not Washington D.C. and a match up against New Orleans who is wrought with dramatic story lines themselves is too tasty to pass up. Washington kept the playbook for Griffin under wraps during the preseason which just adds to the intrigue. On the other side of the ball, the Saints will be without head coach Sean Payton and linebacker Jonathan Vilma for the season due to 'Bountygate'. They are also the host city for the Super Bowl and all the curses that go along with that so it will be interesting to track each team this season for two totally different reasons.
7. San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers
The defensive stalwart of 2011 versus the offensive juggernaut of 2011 who both came up short last season thanks to the New York Giants. Both teams expect to be in the hunt for this years Super Bowl with the same formula that got them to the playoffs last season. San Francisco did add Randy Moss and Mario Manningham in an attempt to solidify some of their offensive woes, but it will be their defense that wins them games this season again. The Packers will continue to air the ball out and play just enough defense to win, but they had better try and find a running attack for when the weather turns cold or else it could be another early exit for them in the playoffs.
6. Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Rays
The league's best offense against the league's best pitching staff. Yes this is playoff baseball in September. Yu Darvish who has regained his dominant form will face David Price on Saturday and on Sunday 'Big Game' James Shields will face underrated Matt Harrison. This will be a tough series for hitters and pitchers alike and excellent for fans to watch. If only they could find a better stadium than the dump that is dubbed 'The Trop' for it to take place. Speaking of showing up...where are you Tampa fans? Your team tries so hard and you don't give a damn. (Now if this is not the pot calling the kettle black, as my Athletics constantly play in front of small crowds). Common denominator: crap stadiums.
5. U.S. Open Tennis
Yes it was sad to see the career of Andy Roddick come to an end. Mardy Fish had to withdraw and thus no American male made a run to the title once again. Instead, outside of the unending rain, the story shifted to which of the 'Big 3' would win the seasons final Grand Slam event. But a funny thing happened on the way to glory for Roger Federer. He was upended by Tomas Berdych in the Quarterfinals. That left just Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic left as expected finalists. On the Women's side of the draw three of the top four seeds are still alive in the Semifinals. Maria Sharapova is playing the best tennis of her career and she will face #1 seed Victoria Azarenka while nobody seems to be able to stop Serena Williams on the bottom half of the draw. She has yet to drop a set and will face 10th seeded Sara Errani with a trip to the Finals on the line.
4. Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants
The lone notable series in the National League deals with the only division that has yet to be decided. Of course all that could change if the Giants, who have a 4.5 game lead, sweep away their rivals from the south. It all starts with two pitchers who have had their share of controversy this season as new arrival Josh Beckett goes for LA and Tim Lincecum starts for San Francisco. Nobody knows what to expect from either pitcher, but they have both pitched big games and it should be a treat...a San Francisco treat (groan). The other two games appear to be mismatches with Matt Cain toeing the slab for the Giants on Saturday against Chris Capuano, while Sunday the tables are turned with Clayton Kershaw having the obvious advantage against Barry Zito.
3. Detroit Tigers at Los Angeles Angels
With the White Sox hosting the Kansas City Royals, this could be a very bad weekend for the Tigers. The Angels have found their groove again as they push back into playoff contention. With a half game separating the two and 3 teams to climb over to secure a playoff spot, neither team can afford to have a bad series. Detroit does have Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander going while the Angels will be without the services of All-Star Jered Weaver who is nursing a bruised shoulder which gives Detroit a much needed advantage on the mound. The Angels can play small ball with their team speed and long ball with the likes of Albert Pujols and Mark Trumbo. Oh and don't forget Mike Trout. Verlander vs. Trout...yes please.
2. New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles
In what can only be described as the biggest series at Camden Yards since 1997, the Baltimore Orioles could conceivably be all alone in 1st place in the A.L. East by Sunday night. Going into the huge four game series, Baltimore stands only 1 game back of the Bronx Bombers. I only hope fans of Baltimore can forgive Peter Angelos for just one weekend and turn out at the best ballpark in the land and give the Orioles a true home field advantage. If they don't, I'm sure there are plenty of Yankees fans that will flood into Baltimore and turn the city into New York south...show up or shut up Orioles fans.
1. Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos
The game that everyone is interested to see is on prime time Sunday night. The return of NFL spokesman Peyton Manning, this time in a Broncos jersey, is here. The NFL didn't do him any favors as he tests his oft surgically repaired neck against the always dangerous Pittsburgh defense. The Broncos are trendy favorites to come out of the AFC to be in the Super Bowl, but fans realize that Peyton Manning's career could be over with one James Harrison hit on the first series of the game. Everyone will be holding their breath each time Manning steps back to pass. For Pittsburgh, they have plenty of question marks with the health of Big Ben, the multiple injuries at running back, a new offensive coordinator and a disgruntled diva wide receiver in Mike Wallace.
The week in baseball has been a crazy one with the Orioles and Rays continuing to inch closer to the New York Yankees in the A.L. East. The Detroit Tigers stumbled a bit against the lowly Cleveland Indians as the Chicago White Sox regained a one game advantage in the A.L. Central. The Texas Rangers took advantage of playing the Kansas City Royals by extending their lead out west to 5 games as the Los Angeles Angels swept away the once hot Oakland Athletics in Oakland. Not only did the Athletics lose, but they also lost starting pitcher Brandon McCarthy after he took a ball off the head hit back at him. There are now five teams within 3 games of the two Wild Card spots in the American League.
In the National League, the Washington Nationals are in total cruise control even with the impending shutdown of Stephen Strasburg. Their lead is 7.5 games and a divisional crown is only a matter of time now. The same can be said in the Central where the Cincinnati Reds continue to maintain a sizable advantage over both the St. Louis Cardinals and Pittsburgh Pirates. Needless to say, both of those divisions are sewed up, but that can't be said about the N.L. West. The Los Angeles Dodgers are trying to hang in the race with the San Francisco Giants with their new $8 billion roster. The Wild Card has four teams within 1.5 games and two others on the fringes at 6.5 games back.
This weekend will continue to paint the playoff picture for baseball fans, but all of that will get overshadowed by the first weekend of the NFL. Mix in some PGA playoffs, the end of the U.S. Open and the second weekend of College Football and boy do we have a fun 72 hours ahead in the world of sports.
Here's what you should be watching:
10. BMW Championship
Last weekend Rory McIlroy won the Deutsche Bank Championship for his 3rd victory of the season and tied Tiger Woods for top spot in that category. He also took the lead in the FedEx Cup standings with this weekend and next weekend as the final two events. I am predicting that Tiger Woods answers back and finally puts together a complete tournament to win this weekend. That should set up a glorious final weekend in Atlanta to decide the Cup winner. Take advantage of this moment in time with both McIlroy and Woods playing high level golf because the window could close anytime as Woods hands the torch to McIlroy as the World's greatest active golfer.
9. College Football-Upset Alert
No marquee games this weekend with the NFL starting, but there are a couple of teams that should be on high alert for an upset. No, I am not talking about Florida St. who is a scant 70.5 point favorite to beat Savannah St. (not that I was looking or anything). Southern Cal might be traveling cross country, but they should handle Syracuse with ease. Missouri is welcomed to the SEC by hosting #7 Georgia and it should be a good test for the Bulldogs. #13 Wisconsin struggled to beat Northern Iowa and now has to go west to face Oregon St. who has yet to play this season. The final game that could bring an upset is #16 Nebraska who heads to Los Angeles to take on UCLA. Not the greatest slate of games, but its still better than nothing.
8. Washington Redskins at New Orleans Saints
Okay I admit this was has a bit of personal backing to it, but I think everyone is eager to see what RGIII can do in the NFL. With apologies to Andrew Luck, Indianapolis is not Washington D.C. and a match up against New Orleans who is wrought with dramatic story lines themselves is too tasty to pass up. Washington kept the playbook for Griffin under wraps during the preseason which just adds to the intrigue. On the other side of the ball, the Saints will be without head coach Sean Payton and linebacker Jonathan Vilma for the season due to 'Bountygate'. They are also the host city for the Super Bowl and all the curses that go along with that so it will be interesting to track each team this season for two totally different reasons.
7. San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers
The defensive stalwart of 2011 versus the offensive juggernaut of 2011 who both came up short last season thanks to the New York Giants. Both teams expect to be in the hunt for this years Super Bowl with the same formula that got them to the playoffs last season. San Francisco did add Randy Moss and Mario Manningham in an attempt to solidify some of their offensive woes, but it will be their defense that wins them games this season again. The Packers will continue to air the ball out and play just enough defense to win, but they had better try and find a running attack for when the weather turns cold or else it could be another early exit for them in the playoffs.
6. Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Rays
The league's best offense against the league's best pitching staff. Yes this is playoff baseball in September. Yu Darvish who has regained his dominant form will face David Price on Saturday and on Sunday 'Big Game' James Shields will face underrated Matt Harrison. This will be a tough series for hitters and pitchers alike and excellent for fans to watch. If only they could find a better stadium than the dump that is dubbed 'The Trop' for it to take place. Speaking of showing up...where are you Tampa fans? Your team tries so hard and you don't give a damn. (Now if this is not the pot calling the kettle black, as my Athletics constantly play in front of small crowds). Common denominator: crap stadiums.
5. U.S. Open Tennis
Yes it was sad to see the career of Andy Roddick come to an end. Mardy Fish had to withdraw and thus no American male made a run to the title once again. Instead, outside of the unending rain, the story shifted to which of the 'Big 3' would win the seasons final Grand Slam event. But a funny thing happened on the way to glory for Roger Federer. He was upended by Tomas Berdych in the Quarterfinals. That left just Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic left as expected finalists. On the Women's side of the draw three of the top four seeds are still alive in the Semifinals. Maria Sharapova is playing the best tennis of her career and she will face #1 seed Victoria Azarenka while nobody seems to be able to stop Serena Williams on the bottom half of the draw. She has yet to drop a set and will face 10th seeded Sara Errani with a trip to the Finals on the line.
4. Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants
The lone notable series in the National League deals with the only division that has yet to be decided. Of course all that could change if the Giants, who have a 4.5 game lead, sweep away their rivals from the south. It all starts with two pitchers who have had their share of controversy this season as new arrival Josh Beckett goes for LA and Tim Lincecum starts for San Francisco. Nobody knows what to expect from either pitcher, but they have both pitched big games and it should be a treat...a San Francisco treat (groan). The other two games appear to be mismatches with Matt Cain toeing the slab for the Giants on Saturday against Chris Capuano, while Sunday the tables are turned with Clayton Kershaw having the obvious advantage against Barry Zito.
3. Detroit Tigers at Los Angeles Angels
With the White Sox hosting the Kansas City Royals, this could be a very bad weekend for the Tigers. The Angels have found their groove again as they push back into playoff contention. With a half game separating the two and 3 teams to climb over to secure a playoff spot, neither team can afford to have a bad series. Detroit does have Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander going while the Angels will be without the services of All-Star Jered Weaver who is nursing a bruised shoulder which gives Detroit a much needed advantage on the mound. The Angels can play small ball with their team speed and long ball with the likes of Albert Pujols and Mark Trumbo. Oh and don't forget Mike Trout. Verlander vs. Trout...yes please.
2. New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles
In what can only be described as the biggest series at Camden Yards since 1997, the Baltimore Orioles could conceivably be all alone in 1st place in the A.L. East by Sunday night. Going into the huge four game series, Baltimore stands only 1 game back of the Bronx Bombers. I only hope fans of Baltimore can forgive Peter Angelos for just one weekend and turn out at the best ballpark in the land and give the Orioles a true home field advantage. If they don't, I'm sure there are plenty of Yankees fans that will flood into Baltimore and turn the city into New York south...show up or shut up Orioles fans.
1. Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos
The game that everyone is interested to see is on prime time Sunday night. The return of NFL spokesman Peyton Manning, this time in a Broncos jersey, is here. The NFL didn't do him any favors as he tests his oft surgically repaired neck against the always dangerous Pittsburgh defense. The Broncos are trendy favorites to come out of the AFC to be in the Super Bowl, but fans realize that Peyton Manning's career could be over with one James Harrison hit on the first series of the game. Everyone will be holding their breath each time Manning steps back to pass. For Pittsburgh, they have plenty of question marks with the health of Big Ben, the multiple injuries at running back, a new offensive coordinator and a disgruntled diva wide receiver in Mike Wallace.
Monday, September 3, 2012
NFL Crystal Ball 2012
I'm back with another year of fearless predictions of the upcoming NFL season. Last year I had Green Bay defeating New England so I was halfway home, but since I didn't have the New York Giants even making the playoffs I feel I failed.
Houston over New England
SUPER BOWL:
Houston over Atlanta 24-20 Arian Foster Super Bowl MVP 115 yards rushing, 2 TD's
I did correctly predict that Aaron Rodgers would win the MVP award and that Jamaal Charles would be a disappointment, so not everything was a loss.
Once again I played out every game 10,000 times on my XBOX (what a long weekend it was) and I have seen surprises and disappointments and everything in between. Just to let you all know, RGIII will play in all 16 games. It won't help the success of the Redskins, but it was still amazing to see him stay upright.
My predictions only had 4 teams not make the playoffs that were in it last year which would actually be lower than the minimum of 5 that the NFL has seen over recent years. The biggest surprise was that the Philadelphia Eagles were able to keep it together and win the NFC East, but of course I thought the same last year too. Out west Norv Turner doesn't last as Chargers head coach through their Bye Week in Week 7.
Here are how the standings will shape up this season:
NFC EAST:
Philadelphia 12-4
Dallas 10-6
New York 9-7
Washington 6-10
NFC NORTH:
Green Bay 14-2
Chicago 11-5
Detroit 8-8
Minnesota 4-12
NFC SOUTH:
Atlanta 13-3
New Orleans 10-6
Carolina 7-9
Tampa Bay 3-13
NFC WEST:
San Francisco 11-5
Seattle 5-11
St. Louis 5-11
Arizona 4-12
AFC EAST:
New England 13-3
New York 10-6
Buffalo 6-10
Miami 6-10
AFC NORTH:
Baltimore 12-4
Pittsburgh 9-7
Cincinnati 9-7
Cleveland 2-14
AFC SOUTH:
Houston 12-4
Tennessee 7-9
Indianapolis 6-10
Jacksonville 2-14
AFC WEST:
Denver 11-5
Oakland 8-8
Kansas City 7-9
San Diego 4-12
MVP: Tom Brady 2nd: Matt Ryan
Surprises/Breakouts: Jake Locker, Jeremy Maclin (2nd year in a row for this pick), Donald Brown, Torrey Smith, Vernon Davis
Disappointments: Maurice Jones-Drew (hamstring issues due to holdout), Ryan Mathews, Vincent Jackson, Victor Cruz (freak salsa dance injury in Week 4), Matthew Stafford (11 games played which saddens me)
Playoffs:
NFC:
1. Green Bay 14-2
2. Atlanta 13-3
3. Philadelphia 12-4
4. San Francisco 11-5
5. Chicago 11-5
6. Dallas 10-6
Wild Card:
Philadelphia over Dallas
Chicago over San Francisco
Semifinals:
Green Bay over Chicago
Atlanta over Philadelphia
Conference Championship:
Atlanta over Green Bay
AFC:
1. New England 13-3
2. Baltimore 12-4
3. Houston 12-4
4. Denver 11-5
5. New York 10-6
6. Pittsburgh 9-7
Wild Card:
Houston over Pittsburgh
Denver over New York Jets
Semifinals:
New England over Denver
Houston over Baltimore
My predictions only had 4 teams not make the playoffs that were in it last year which would actually be lower than the minimum of 5 that the NFL has seen over recent years. The biggest surprise was that the Philadelphia Eagles were able to keep it together and win the NFC East, but of course I thought the same last year too. Out west Norv Turner doesn't last as Chargers head coach through their Bye Week in Week 7.
Here are how the standings will shape up this season:
NFC EAST:
Philadelphia 12-4
Dallas 10-6
New York 9-7
Washington 6-10
NFC NORTH:
Green Bay 14-2
Chicago 11-5
Detroit 8-8
Minnesota 4-12
NFC SOUTH:
Atlanta 13-3
New Orleans 10-6
Carolina 7-9
Tampa Bay 3-13
NFC WEST:
San Francisco 11-5
Seattle 5-11
St. Louis 5-11
Arizona 4-12
AFC EAST:
New England 13-3
New York 10-6
Buffalo 6-10
Miami 6-10
AFC NORTH:
Baltimore 12-4
Pittsburgh 9-7
Cincinnati 9-7
Cleveland 2-14
AFC SOUTH:
Houston 12-4
Tennessee 7-9
Indianapolis 6-10
Jacksonville 2-14
AFC WEST:
Denver 11-5
Oakland 8-8
Kansas City 7-9
San Diego 4-12
MVP: Tom Brady 2nd: Matt Ryan
Surprises/Breakouts: Jake Locker, Jeremy Maclin (2nd year in a row for this pick), Donald Brown, Torrey Smith, Vernon Davis
Disappointments: Maurice Jones-Drew (hamstring issues due to holdout), Ryan Mathews, Vincent Jackson, Victor Cruz (freak salsa dance injury in Week 4), Matthew Stafford (11 games played which saddens me)
Playoffs:
NFC:
1. Green Bay 14-2
2. Atlanta 13-3
3. Philadelphia 12-4
4. San Francisco 11-5
5. Chicago 11-5
6. Dallas 10-6
Wild Card:
Philadelphia over Dallas
Chicago over San Francisco
Semifinals:
Green Bay over Chicago
Atlanta over Philadelphia
Conference Championship:
Atlanta over Green Bay
AFC:
1. New England 13-3
2. Baltimore 12-4
3. Houston 12-4
4. Denver 11-5
5. New York 10-6
6. Pittsburgh 9-7
Wild Card:
Houston over Pittsburgh
Denver over New York Jets
Semifinals:
New England over Denver
Houston over Baltimore
Conference Championship:
Houston over New England
SUPER BOWL:
Houston over Atlanta 24-20 Arian Foster Super Bowl MVP 115 yards rushing, 2 TD's
Wednesday, August 1, 2012
Fantasy Football 2012 Preview: Pick 'em
Every year you can look back at your leagues fantasy football draft and see same round picks of a single position where one team got a stud and one team got a dud. Last year in one of my leagues there were two of us that waited to draft a quarterback. My friend and I are notorious for picking our quarterback late and when my turn came up I had two 'sleeper' picks left on the board: Matthew Stafford and Josh Freeman. I couldn't make up my mind and I knew nobody else would take a quarterback by the time it got back to me so I let him make my decision for me.
With the 1st pick in the 7th round (14 teams), my friend drafted Josh Freeman. Five picks later I took Matthew Stafford and wound up winning my league. My friend missed the playoffs. Sometimes it is that simple. Another example was where the team before me drafted LeGarrette Blount which forced me to shift strategy and take Larry Fitzgerald with the very next pick because I didn't like any of the next group of running backs. Later on I took Fred Jackson to compensate for not getting the stud running back in Blount that I wanted. That worked out well too.
This is why the draft is very important and sometimes it has nothing to do what you want to do. You must be prepared to scrap your entire plan on the fly because each year is different, each draft is unique and every competing owner is unpredictable. Not to mention we really have no clue how each player will perform in the upcoming season. All you can do as a fantasy owner is to draft players who you think will have the greatest success and get you the best value for your pick.
I'm going to take a look at some of the decisions you might have to make in your upcoming draft. It could be the difference between playing for a trophy or dancing in a tutu for your friends and coworkers. Don't end up dancing in a tutu for your friends and coworkers.
Quarterbacks:
Eli Manning (ADP 31.9 via ESPN) vs. Michael Vick (ADP 31.9 via ESPN)
One quarterback has won two Super Bowls and one quarterback has hinted that his team is on the verge of a dynasty. Last year Michael Vick went 1st overall in my league and that owner went 3-10. Eli Manning went 93rd overall as a backup and his owner went 10-2-1. Nobody would have predicted that Manning would have 450 points to Vick's 271, but it happened and because of it they are a toss up this season. For years Eli has been seen a great fantasy backup quarterback, but could never be trusted upon to start week in and week out. I think that title has now fallen to Jay Cutler, but we'll discuss that another time.
The Giants have two stud receivers in Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz and the Eagles receivers, DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin aren't too shabby either. Eli Manning hasn't missed a game since becoming the starter in New York, while Michael Vick has played in only 25 of 32 games since the start of the 2010 season. Eli Manning cannot and will not run for points for your fantasy team (4 rushing TD's in his 8 year career) whereas Michael Vick has 12 rushing TD's in the last 3 years alone.
The most difficult words to hear for a fantasy owner when describing a player are 'when healthy'. When healthy Michael Vick is a great fantasy weapon. Same for Darren McFadden and Andre Johnson, but when they aren't healthy...which is A LOT...they are useless to you. I understand why owners are enamored with Vick, hell I drafted him 1st overall in 2003, but that risk is tough to overcome for a 3rd round pick. For Manning owners know what they are going to get. Nothing too flashy, the occasional brain fart game (see Week 15 vs. Washington which eliminated a ton of Manning owners from their playoffs), but a real steady starting quarterback by seasons end.
The ironic thing about these two quarterbacks is that Eli Manning would have been the perfect back up to Michael Vick last year and this year a quarterback in the same mold as Vick, Robert Griffin III, will be a perfect back up for Eli Manning in a 10 team league.
Peyton Manning (ADP 41.9 via ESPN) vs. Tony Romo (ADP 47.9 via ESPN)
So you're telling me that a quarterback coming off of at least 4 neck 'procedures' who is 36 years old and didn't play last season is being drafted ahead of a quarterback who topped 4,000 yards and 30 TD's in a supposed down year for him? Tony Romo has Miles Austin, Dez Bryant and Jason Witten to throw to and plays at least half of his games in a dome on turf. Peyton Manning has Eric Decker, Demaryius Thomas and Jacob Tamme as his best weapons and will be playing outdoors in the elements where he has seen a significant drop in statistics in his career.
I think people are drafting the name rather than using their brains here. I think Peyton Manning is one of the greatest quarterbacks to have ever laced them up, but he has played in one system for one team with basically the same cast of characters his entire career. This year he starts all over and nobody can be even certain that he's healthy or will stay healthy after he takes his first big hit.
For all the ridicule that Tony Romo takes for his late game failings, he is still a pretty damn good quarterback. In his 4 years where he started 13 or more games he has averaged 4,081 yards passing and 30 TD's. I don't see Peyton getting anywhere close to those numbers this year.
Running Backs:
Adrian Peterson (ADP 23.3 via ESPN) vs. Darren McFadden (ADP 25.5 via ESPN)
Two running backs who didn't finish the 2011 season healthy. This will be a significant topic of discussion leading up to drafts this year as along with these two Fred Jackson, Matt Forte, DeMarco Murray, Rashard Mendenhall and Jamaal Charles all suffered season ending injuries of some sort. All but Mendenhall are tabbed as their respective teams starters and are being drafted in the top 35 picks. I will not fault owners drafting any one of these backs, but you had better not select two of them in your starting lineup.
Instead of dissecting all seven, I'll highlight 'All Day' and 'Run DMC' because they have cool nicknames. Peterson tore his ACL which is a red flag in itself for running backs. To understand that he did that on Christmas Eve should mean he doesn't play in 2012. Well...here's the thing. Adrian Peterson is a freak of nature and apparently will be making a run (no pun intended) at starting in Week 1. If that happens and he is even just above average you might win your league with him as your possible #2 back. That's in a perfect world. Reality tells me he won't be ready at the start of the season and he won't be more than average at best for the first half of the season. That's too long to wait in the fantasy world. I will be watching him closely and if I see steady improvement he may be a great trading candidate mid-season.
The best news for future owners of Darren McFadden is that Michael Bush is playing in Chicago. The Raiders will not have anybody to steal touches away from McFadden unless you think Mike Goodson is the answer and I don't. What you really need to understand, though is Darren McFadden will not play in 16 games. He just can't do it and has taken over the 'Fragile Fred' moniker from Fred Taylor. Taylor played in 40 of 64 games in his first 4 seasons in the NFL. McFadden has played in 45. I bet you didn't know that played in all 32 of his games over the next two years. Maybe there is hope for McFadden yet.
Trent Richardson (ADP 29.2 via ESPN) vs. Steven Jackson (ADP 31.5 via ESPN)
A tale of two running backs at the opposite ends of their career spectrum. Richardson is a rookie who was drafted 3rd overall and is heading to a team that provides absolutely zero competition for touches. Steven Jackson has had 7 consecutive 1,000+ rushing yard seasons and even though the Rams took a running back (Isaiah Pead) in the 2nd round, his job doesn't look to be in jeopardy once again this season. I was personally burned by drafting a rookie running back in Ryan Mathews two years ago so I can't wrap my head around going all in on Richardson.
The question for fantasy owners is do you like the steady Eddie or do you want to roll the dice on one of the best running prospects the NFL has seen in a very long time? The Cleveland Browns will still be a bad team this season. What that means is they will be playing from behind for the most part. That doesn't usually translate to a lot of rushing attempts. It's unknown whether Richardson will be a good receiving option, but if he is he will stay on the field more and be far more valuable than Steven Jackson by seasons end. The Rams had a horrific season in 2011, but it didn't stop Jackson from having decent production. You would have to believe that they will be better with a healthy Sam Bradford under center and if so Jackson may have one more elite season for fantasy owners.
Wide Receivers:
Mike Wallace (ADP 26.6 via ESPN) vs. A.J. Green (ADP 29.4 via ESPN)
You want red flags about Mike Wallace? I've got red flags. He's holding out for more money. His quarterback is the epitome of the walking wounded and now has a 'little torn rotator cuff' per ESPN. He might not even be the #1 WR on his own team. Antonio Brown saw 11 more passes go his way than did Wallace and basically matched him in receptions and yards. The only saving grace for Mike Wallace is that he hauled in 8 touchdowns (to only 2 for Brown), but touchdowns is the one stat that fantasy owners cannot fall in love with.
The Steelers could easily split those 10 touchdowns 6 to 4 instead of 8 to 2 and all of a sudden the fantasy numbers of the two receivers could be even. Right now Antonio Brown's ADP is 70.4 and it is all based on his lack of touchdowns. If Wallace misses any more of training camp it will be interesting to see if he starts slipping and Brown starts rising.
Staying in the AFC North A.J. Green is the unquestioned #1 receiver for the Cincinnati Bengals. He was the same last year during his rookie season and was rather spectacular based off his expectations. He topped 1,000 yards receiving and hauled in 7 touchdowns on only 65 receptions. Another 10 receptions gets him over 1,200 yards and another 7 touchdowns would be the cherry on top.
The 1A's vs. The 1B's in the NFC
The New York Giants, Dallas Cowboys, Philadelphia Eagles, Green Bay Packers and Atlanta Falcons all pose a problem for defenses. They all have two really good receivers that could beat you at anytime. That's all well and good for them, but for fantasy owners deciding on which on to draft could be very difficult.
Let's look at them briefly:
Atlanta - Roddy White (ADP 19.3) vs. Julio Jones (ADP 36.1)
New York - Victor Cruz (ADP 31.9) vs. Hakeem Nicks (ADP 32.2)
Philadelphia - DeSean Jackson (ADP 61.9) vs. Jeremy Maclin (ADP 63.4)
Green Bay - Greg Jennings (ADP 20.0) vs. Jordy Nelson (ADP 39.0)
Dallas - Dez Bryant (ADP 45.3) vs. Miles Austin (ADP 51.0)
That's 10 players on five teams drafted between picks 19 and 64. Not all 10 are going to have an All-Pro season, but they will all, for the most part be a #1 wide receiver on fantasy teams. So which one, and only one, would you draft?
Roddy White is the first of the 'Big 10' coming off the board, but I can easily see Julio Jones outpacing him this season. Last year as a rookie, Jones saw about half the targets, caught about half the balls as the veteran White. Jones proved to be the deep threat averaging nearly 18 yards a catch (to 13 for White) and they both had 8 touchdowns. Imagine if just 10 of those catches by Roddy White end up in Julio Jones' hands. That 1170 yards for White and 1140 for Jones based off of their average yards per catch from 2011.
Victor Cruz came out of nowhere to not only surpass both his teammates in receiving, but finished 3rd in the NFL in yards. He went undrafted in every single fantasy league in the world last year. I'm sure even Victor Cruz didn't draft Victor Cruz. There is really no way he can duplicate his 2011 stat line is there? Well Hakeem Nicks is already injured and Mario Manningham went to San Francisco. The receiver that I'm most worried about on the Giants is Nicks. A broken foot is nothing to sneeze at for a wide receiver and that is what Nicks is coming back from. If he slips due to injury concern I'd feel much better about 2 rounds later.
The Philadelphia Eagles were 'a hot mess' as the kids would say in 2011. They were anointed as Super Bowl champions before the season started and finished 8-8 (even though the actual Super Bowl winners were 9-7). The lack of health and consistency from Michael Vick tempered the numbers that DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin produced, but it wasn't all his fault. Jackson proved to be the leagues foremost prima donna by getting himself suspended after missing a team meeting. Add that to his numerous dropped balls and its a wonder people still have faith in him. Jeremy Maclin quietly caught more passes than Jackson and even had one more touchdown than him. Maybe this is the year Maclin ascends to the top spot in Philadelphia.
Greg Jennings is being drafted almost two rounds ahead of his teammate Jordy Nelson, but why? Name recognition or a longer resume? Aaron Rodgers is currently the best quarterback in the NFL and it probably doesn't matter who lines up next to him in Green Bay. They should all be quality options, but I do know that Jordy Nelson will not catch 15 touchdowns this season. He'll be lucky to do half of that. Five Packers caught six or more touchdowns and that tells me the ball gets spread around. Its the key to the Packers success, murder by numbers. Greg Jennings has had 920+ yards receiving in five straight seasons and averaged 9 touchdowns per season as well. He has easily been the most consistent receiver on the Packers, but the fact that nobody is a true #1 (just like the New Orleans Saints) is the reason why its so difficult to take one of them with your first 2-3 picks.
Neither Dez Bryant nor Miles Austin led the Dallas Cowboys in targets, receptions or yards. It wasn't Laurent Robinson either. It was Jason Witten. Jason Witten is going 60th overall in a much shallower position for fantasy owners yet that is behind both of the wide receivers in Big D. That seems kind of odd, don't you think? To say I don't have faith in either of these two receivers is an understatement. There is not reason that they should be going in rounds 4-5. You just won't get the value you want from them because of the presence of Witten who is obviously the security blanket for Tony Romo. If they fall to rounds 6 or 7 and are your #2 receiver, jump on them immediately, but don't reach for either one.
Tight Ends:
Fred Davis (ADP 103.9 via ESPN) vs. Brandon Pettigrew (ADP 107.9 via ESPN)
On one hand you have a very talented tight end who is one drug bust away from missing a full season. On the other hand you have a great blocking tight end who catches a ton of short passes. They could both potentially put up really good numbers this season and could both be on the waiver wire by mid season. Brandon Pettigrew is a much safer pick, but his ceiling is far lower than that of Fred Davis. With a rookie quarterback who can run and some new speedy wide receivers to stretch the field, the middle of the field could be wide open for him. If he plays all 16 games I expect Fred Davis to challenge for Pro Bowl honors in a very deep position in the NFC. The only thing holding Brandon Pettigrew back is how the Lions use him. He doesn't go down field enough, he doesn't get enough red zone opportunities but and he blocks too much. Outside of that he fits the mold of a very good tight end. He is just on the edge of being a reliable starter.
With the 1st pick in the 7th round (14 teams), my friend drafted Josh Freeman. Five picks later I took Matthew Stafford and wound up winning my league. My friend missed the playoffs. Sometimes it is that simple. Another example was where the team before me drafted LeGarrette Blount which forced me to shift strategy and take Larry Fitzgerald with the very next pick because I didn't like any of the next group of running backs. Later on I took Fred Jackson to compensate for not getting the stud running back in Blount that I wanted. That worked out well too.
This is why the draft is very important and sometimes it has nothing to do what you want to do. You must be prepared to scrap your entire plan on the fly because each year is different, each draft is unique and every competing owner is unpredictable. Not to mention we really have no clue how each player will perform in the upcoming season. All you can do as a fantasy owner is to draft players who you think will have the greatest success and get you the best value for your pick.
I'm going to take a look at some of the decisions you might have to make in your upcoming draft. It could be the difference between playing for a trophy or dancing in a tutu for your friends and coworkers. Don't end up dancing in a tutu for your friends and coworkers.
Quarterbacks:
Eli Manning (ADP 31.9 via ESPN) vs. Michael Vick (ADP 31.9 via ESPN)
One quarterback has won two Super Bowls and one quarterback has hinted that his team is on the verge of a dynasty. Last year Michael Vick went 1st overall in my league and that owner went 3-10. Eli Manning went 93rd overall as a backup and his owner went 10-2-1. Nobody would have predicted that Manning would have 450 points to Vick's 271, but it happened and because of it they are a toss up this season. For years Eli has been seen a great fantasy backup quarterback, but could never be trusted upon to start week in and week out. I think that title has now fallen to Jay Cutler, but we'll discuss that another time.
The Giants have two stud receivers in Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz and the Eagles receivers, DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin aren't too shabby either. Eli Manning hasn't missed a game since becoming the starter in New York, while Michael Vick has played in only 25 of 32 games since the start of the 2010 season. Eli Manning cannot and will not run for points for your fantasy team (4 rushing TD's in his 8 year career) whereas Michael Vick has 12 rushing TD's in the last 3 years alone.
The most difficult words to hear for a fantasy owner when describing a player are 'when healthy'. When healthy Michael Vick is a great fantasy weapon. Same for Darren McFadden and Andre Johnson, but when they aren't healthy...which is A LOT...they are useless to you. I understand why owners are enamored with Vick, hell I drafted him 1st overall in 2003, but that risk is tough to overcome for a 3rd round pick. For Manning owners know what they are going to get. Nothing too flashy, the occasional brain fart game (see Week 15 vs. Washington which eliminated a ton of Manning owners from their playoffs), but a real steady starting quarterback by seasons end.
The ironic thing about these two quarterbacks is that Eli Manning would have been the perfect back up to Michael Vick last year and this year a quarterback in the same mold as Vick, Robert Griffin III, will be a perfect back up for Eli Manning in a 10 team league.
Peyton Manning (ADP 41.9 via ESPN) vs. Tony Romo (ADP 47.9 via ESPN)
So you're telling me that a quarterback coming off of at least 4 neck 'procedures' who is 36 years old and didn't play last season is being drafted ahead of a quarterback who topped 4,000 yards and 30 TD's in a supposed down year for him? Tony Romo has Miles Austin, Dez Bryant and Jason Witten to throw to and plays at least half of his games in a dome on turf. Peyton Manning has Eric Decker, Demaryius Thomas and Jacob Tamme as his best weapons and will be playing outdoors in the elements where he has seen a significant drop in statistics in his career.
I think people are drafting the name rather than using their brains here. I think Peyton Manning is one of the greatest quarterbacks to have ever laced them up, but he has played in one system for one team with basically the same cast of characters his entire career. This year he starts all over and nobody can be even certain that he's healthy or will stay healthy after he takes his first big hit.
For all the ridicule that Tony Romo takes for his late game failings, he is still a pretty damn good quarterback. In his 4 years where he started 13 or more games he has averaged 4,081 yards passing and 30 TD's. I don't see Peyton getting anywhere close to those numbers this year.
Running Backs:
Adrian Peterson (ADP 23.3 via ESPN) vs. Darren McFadden (ADP 25.5 via ESPN)
Two running backs who didn't finish the 2011 season healthy. This will be a significant topic of discussion leading up to drafts this year as along with these two Fred Jackson, Matt Forte, DeMarco Murray, Rashard Mendenhall and Jamaal Charles all suffered season ending injuries of some sort. All but Mendenhall are tabbed as their respective teams starters and are being drafted in the top 35 picks. I will not fault owners drafting any one of these backs, but you had better not select two of them in your starting lineup.
Instead of dissecting all seven, I'll highlight 'All Day' and 'Run DMC' because they have cool nicknames. Peterson tore his ACL which is a red flag in itself for running backs. To understand that he did that on Christmas Eve should mean he doesn't play in 2012. Well...here's the thing. Adrian Peterson is a freak of nature and apparently will be making a run (no pun intended) at starting in Week 1. If that happens and he is even just above average you might win your league with him as your possible #2 back. That's in a perfect world. Reality tells me he won't be ready at the start of the season and he won't be more than average at best for the first half of the season. That's too long to wait in the fantasy world. I will be watching him closely and if I see steady improvement he may be a great trading candidate mid-season.
The best news for future owners of Darren McFadden is that Michael Bush is playing in Chicago. The Raiders will not have anybody to steal touches away from McFadden unless you think Mike Goodson is the answer and I don't. What you really need to understand, though is Darren McFadden will not play in 16 games. He just can't do it and has taken over the 'Fragile Fred' moniker from Fred Taylor. Taylor played in 40 of 64 games in his first 4 seasons in the NFL. McFadden has played in 45. I bet you didn't know that played in all 32 of his games over the next two years. Maybe there is hope for McFadden yet.
Trent Richardson (ADP 29.2 via ESPN) vs. Steven Jackson (ADP 31.5 via ESPN)
A tale of two running backs at the opposite ends of their career spectrum. Richardson is a rookie who was drafted 3rd overall and is heading to a team that provides absolutely zero competition for touches. Steven Jackson has had 7 consecutive 1,000+ rushing yard seasons and even though the Rams took a running back (Isaiah Pead) in the 2nd round, his job doesn't look to be in jeopardy once again this season. I was personally burned by drafting a rookie running back in Ryan Mathews two years ago so I can't wrap my head around going all in on Richardson.
The question for fantasy owners is do you like the steady Eddie or do you want to roll the dice on one of the best running prospects the NFL has seen in a very long time? The Cleveland Browns will still be a bad team this season. What that means is they will be playing from behind for the most part. That doesn't usually translate to a lot of rushing attempts. It's unknown whether Richardson will be a good receiving option, but if he is he will stay on the field more and be far more valuable than Steven Jackson by seasons end. The Rams had a horrific season in 2011, but it didn't stop Jackson from having decent production. You would have to believe that they will be better with a healthy Sam Bradford under center and if so Jackson may have one more elite season for fantasy owners.
Wide Receivers:
Mike Wallace (ADP 26.6 via ESPN) vs. A.J. Green (ADP 29.4 via ESPN)
You want red flags about Mike Wallace? I've got red flags. He's holding out for more money. His quarterback is the epitome of the walking wounded and now has a 'little torn rotator cuff' per ESPN. He might not even be the #1 WR on his own team. Antonio Brown saw 11 more passes go his way than did Wallace and basically matched him in receptions and yards. The only saving grace for Mike Wallace is that he hauled in 8 touchdowns (to only 2 for Brown), but touchdowns is the one stat that fantasy owners cannot fall in love with.
The Steelers could easily split those 10 touchdowns 6 to 4 instead of 8 to 2 and all of a sudden the fantasy numbers of the two receivers could be even. Right now Antonio Brown's ADP is 70.4 and it is all based on his lack of touchdowns. If Wallace misses any more of training camp it will be interesting to see if he starts slipping and Brown starts rising.
Staying in the AFC North A.J. Green is the unquestioned #1 receiver for the Cincinnati Bengals. He was the same last year during his rookie season and was rather spectacular based off his expectations. He topped 1,000 yards receiving and hauled in 7 touchdowns on only 65 receptions. Another 10 receptions gets him over 1,200 yards and another 7 touchdowns would be the cherry on top.
The 1A's vs. The 1B's in the NFC
The New York Giants, Dallas Cowboys, Philadelphia Eagles, Green Bay Packers and Atlanta Falcons all pose a problem for defenses. They all have two really good receivers that could beat you at anytime. That's all well and good for them, but for fantasy owners deciding on which on to draft could be very difficult.
Let's look at them briefly:
Atlanta - Roddy White (ADP 19.3) vs. Julio Jones (ADP 36.1)
New York - Victor Cruz (ADP 31.9) vs. Hakeem Nicks (ADP 32.2)
Philadelphia - DeSean Jackson (ADP 61.9) vs. Jeremy Maclin (ADP 63.4)
Green Bay - Greg Jennings (ADP 20.0) vs. Jordy Nelson (ADP 39.0)
Dallas - Dez Bryant (ADP 45.3) vs. Miles Austin (ADP 51.0)
That's 10 players on five teams drafted between picks 19 and 64. Not all 10 are going to have an All-Pro season, but they will all, for the most part be a #1 wide receiver on fantasy teams. So which one, and only one, would you draft?
Roddy White is the first of the 'Big 10' coming off the board, but I can easily see Julio Jones outpacing him this season. Last year as a rookie, Jones saw about half the targets, caught about half the balls as the veteran White. Jones proved to be the deep threat averaging nearly 18 yards a catch (to 13 for White) and they both had 8 touchdowns. Imagine if just 10 of those catches by Roddy White end up in Julio Jones' hands. That 1170 yards for White and 1140 for Jones based off of their average yards per catch from 2011.
Victor Cruz came out of nowhere to not only surpass both his teammates in receiving, but finished 3rd in the NFL in yards. He went undrafted in every single fantasy league in the world last year. I'm sure even Victor Cruz didn't draft Victor Cruz. There is really no way he can duplicate his 2011 stat line is there? Well Hakeem Nicks is already injured and Mario Manningham went to San Francisco. The receiver that I'm most worried about on the Giants is Nicks. A broken foot is nothing to sneeze at for a wide receiver and that is what Nicks is coming back from. If he slips due to injury concern I'd feel much better about 2 rounds later.
The Philadelphia Eagles were 'a hot mess' as the kids would say in 2011. They were anointed as Super Bowl champions before the season started and finished 8-8 (even though the actual Super Bowl winners were 9-7). The lack of health and consistency from Michael Vick tempered the numbers that DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin produced, but it wasn't all his fault. Jackson proved to be the leagues foremost prima donna by getting himself suspended after missing a team meeting. Add that to his numerous dropped balls and its a wonder people still have faith in him. Jeremy Maclin quietly caught more passes than Jackson and even had one more touchdown than him. Maybe this is the year Maclin ascends to the top spot in Philadelphia.
Greg Jennings is being drafted almost two rounds ahead of his teammate Jordy Nelson, but why? Name recognition or a longer resume? Aaron Rodgers is currently the best quarterback in the NFL and it probably doesn't matter who lines up next to him in Green Bay. They should all be quality options, but I do know that Jordy Nelson will not catch 15 touchdowns this season. He'll be lucky to do half of that. Five Packers caught six or more touchdowns and that tells me the ball gets spread around. Its the key to the Packers success, murder by numbers. Greg Jennings has had 920+ yards receiving in five straight seasons and averaged 9 touchdowns per season as well. He has easily been the most consistent receiver on the Packers, but the fact that nobody is a true #1 (just like the New Orleans Saints) is the reason why its so difficult to take one of them with your first 2-3 picks.
Neither Dez Bryant nor Miles Austin led the Dallas Cowboys in targets, receptions or yards. It wasn't Laurent Robinson either. It was Jason Witten. Jason Witten is going 60th overall in a much shallower position for fantasy owners yet that is behind both of the wide receivers in Big D. That seems kind of odd, don't you think? To say I don't have faith in either of these two receivers is an understatement. There is not reason that they should be going in rounds 4-5. You just won't get the value you want from them because of the presence of Witten who is obviously the security blanket for Tony Romo. If they fall to rounds 6 or 7 and are your #2 receiver, jump on them immediately, but don't reach for either one.
Tight Ends:
Fred Davis (ADP 103.9 via ESPN) vs. Brandon Pettigrew (ADP 107.9 via ESPN)
On one hand you have a very talented tight end who is one drug bust away from missing a full season. On the other hand you have a great blocking tight end who catches a ton of short passes. They could both potentially put up really good numbers this season and could both be on the waiver wire by mid season. Brandon Pettigrew is a much safer pick, but his ceiling is far lower than that of Fred Davis. With a rookie quarterback who can run and some new speedy wide receivers to stretch the field, the middle of the field could be wide open for him. If he plays all 16 games I expect Fred Davis to challenge for Pro Bowl honors in a very deep position in the NFC. The only thing holding Brandon Pettigrew back is how the Lions use him. He doesn't go down field enough, he doesn't get enough red zone opportunities but and he blocks too much. Outside of that he fits the mold of a very good tight end. He is just on the edge of being a reliable starter.
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