Samuel L. Jackson and 2015 Fantasy Football

'I'm tired of these motherfucking blogs about this motherfucking fantasy football!'

I am pretty certain this was the exact quote Samuel L. Jackson used in the director's cut of 'Snakes on a Plane.' What an entertaining flick that was, but that is what usually happens when one sits down to watch one of the roughly 8,000 movies Jackson has appeared in over the last three decades. He's not always the star, but he usually leaves a lasting impression on the viewer with every minute of screen time he receives. There is, after all, a reason he gets as many roles as he does year in and year out.

As for me, I'm far less entertaining as you will soon find out (way to sell your post high there Jason). Every year I pick a famous Hollywood personality and tie their movie career into some of the hot button topics surrounding the upcoming fantasy football season. Last year I chose Tom Hanks and with mixed results I tried to best guess how the 2014 fantasy football season would unfold. Luckily for me I didn't follow my own advice writing that DeMarco Murray and Arian Foster would be busts. They were my first two draft picks in my 14 team league as I went 10-3 in the regular season and 2-0 in the playoffs to capture my 5th championship in the 17 year history of the league. Now don't get me wrong I also followed my advice of waiting on a quarterback. I took Jay Cutler late and he was just average enough to allow my studs to win games.

My rule for leagues of 12 or more teams: drafting RBs early can easily lose your league for you, but if those picks work out you will have a distinct advantage over those who take a QB/TE/WR combination with their first few picks. I won't always get lucky drafting the #1 and #5 overall running backs with the 14th and 15th picks of a draft. Once again I find myself drafting #14 overall and I might, just might be forced into picking backwards if possible studs aren't around. I won't have my full draft strategy until pick 12 of my draft at the earliest. Keep that in mind, when you are drafting, you must be ready to go to plan B or C immediately.

Before getting to the crux of my article, I provide for you my top 5 movies with Samuel L. Jackson in it:

5. A Long Kiss Goodnight

4. Unbreakable

3. Die Hard: With a Vengeance

2. Pulp Fiction (I'm beginning to think I have an affinity for Bruce Willis and Sam together)

1. Jurassic Park

I skipped out all the new age Marvel movies where Jackson has bit roles for the most part and Goodfellas, because although I've watched it a handful of times, cannot recall Jackson's role. I did want to include The Incredibles though, because that is such a fun movie.

Onto my preview of the 2015 Fantasy Football season, starring the one, the only Samuel L. Jackson:

Patriot Games

As has become my tradition, I tie in the first movie with the defending Super Bowl champions. Patriot Games was the second of the Jack Ryan movies (now at five) made, but the first of the Harrison Ford pair. It isn't the best of the bunch (Clear and Present Danger, Hunt for Red October and Sum of All Fears are better IMO) and Samuel L. Jackson isn't in it for very long, but here we are. I'll always remember my father asking me while driving back in 1994 when I was 16 'Do you want to see Patriot games?' I assumed we were moving to the Boston area because I took it as a sports related question, not knowing anything about the Tom Clancy books.

This past year the New England Patriots returned to glory after the Seattle Seahawks inexplicably passed the ball on the one yard line late in the fourth quarter. As happy and joyous as winning the Super Bowl has been for the Patriots, the off season has been the exact opposite. With endless questions surrounding 'Deflategate', the Patriots saw their owner get duped by the NFL Commissioner and then their future Hall of Fame quarterback, Tom Brady receive a four game suspension for basically getting a new phone. I said it from the beginning this was basically a suspension for everything the Patriots franchise has been accused of (and found guilty of) since Brady has been in the league.

What does this mean for all the skill position Patriots in 2015? Not too much really. Gronk is still the highest and most valuable fantasy draft option for them. As long as he stays on the field he is good for nearly a touchdown a game (73 games, including playoffs, 61 touchdowns). The wide receiving corps of Danny Amendola, Julian Edelman and Brandon LaFell will be more than serviceable, especially with the absence of the 77 targets and 52 receptions that Shane Vereen took with him to the New York Giants. It really doesn't matter for four games whether it is Tom Brady passing or Jimmy Garoppolo, the Patriots are a well-oiled machine and the stars will get their numbers. As for the running backs, well that is a horse of a different color. Each week you could have a different hero and goat. The 2014 Patriots had four backs gain between 281-412 yards and those four combined for 12 rushing touchdowns. What a mess. You can't even hope for one being a bye week fill-in for your starter because even up until game time you just don't know who will touch the ball.

As for Brady, sure you have to knock him back a round or two because of the suspension, but don't let him fall too far because you can always plug in Carson Palmer or Joe Flacco for the first quarter of the season and survive. Don't let him slip too far.

Deep Blue Sea(ttle)

I have to admit, I'm pretty proud of myself for this play on the title of a much underrated action/adventure movie. It has sharks, L.L. Cool J talking to a bird, science you could probably poke a million holes in and probably the third most memorable Samuel L. Jackson monologue scene ever behind his Pulp Fiction and Snakes on a Plane speeches. I won't ruin the fun of the scene if you haven't watched it before. As for the title of the movie, it is just perfect for what had to be the mood for fans of Seattle after that goal line interception. It was such a strange decision for a team that had the second most rushing attempts and fewest passing attempts in the NFL.

They rely so much on their run game and defense. IT WAS ONE FLIPPIN' YARD!!! You feel me don't you Seattle? No NFL play will be as scrutinized as that one. That is a fact.

Have no fear Seattle, sunny days will return. Okay maybe not in reality, but on the football field at least. Your defense is still top notch. Your quarterback was recently overpaid, but he gets the job done (EXCEPT ON THE GOAL LINE WITH THE SUPER BOWL ON THE LINE YOU IDIOT JASON). Marshawn Lynch is another year older with another 380 or so touches under his belt. The wide receivers are still forgettable, but the Seahawks did tinker with their tight end position.

Jimmy Graham is now a Seattle Seahawk. A square peg into a round hole? An overreaction to that Super Bowl play? Just what Russell Wilson needed to become an elite fantasy quarterback? Therein lies the million dollar question. Just how will these two mesh? Last season Doug Baldwin saw just over 21% of all the pass attempts by Wilson which was the most on the team. Could Graham eclipse 30% in 2015 which would equate to 135 targets? He averaged 137.75 over his last four years in New Orleans so that is what it would take. With the already built in running threat and the scramble ability of Wilson I figure Jimmy Graham will be seeing a lot of man coverage with help over the top. He will be a PPR monster and his usual goal line beast self. The thought of him being in Seattle will cause his ADP to drop a bit (currently a late 3rd round pick on ESPN) which will make somebody very happy.

As for Wilson, he'll have to nearly duplicate his rushing stats 800+ yards and scores (6) to be fully trusted #1 QB. The system just won't allow for him to reach upper echelon passing statistics. Jimmy Graham will help, but I have to believe that 200-300 of Wilson's scramble yards will turn into passing yards and that will lower his fantasy points. Wilson is a middle of the pack at best #1 starter who will have games in that rugged NFC West where it devolves into 'ground and pound' and the Seahawks focus squarely on not making a big mistake.

The Great White Hype

A forgettable movie for me and I'm sure one that Samuel L. Jackson would like back, but that's what happens sometimes in the movie making business. Even with an above average cast with a strong background of work, sometimes it just doesn't come together even if it looks great on paper. This brings me to topic number three: rookies. For every Peyton Manning #1 overall in 1998 you get a Ryan Leaf #2 overall in 1998. For every Ki-Jana Carter #1 overall in 1995 you get a Curtis Martin #74 overall in 1995. For every Rod Gardner #15 overall in 2001 you get a Reggie Wayne #30 overall in 2001.

If the 2012 Draft was the year of the quarterback (Luck, RGIII, Russell Wilson) and 2014 was the year of the Wide Receiver (ODB, Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans, Kelvin Benjamin) could the 2015 class finally produce a good crop of running backs?

Todd Gurley drafted by the St. Louis Rams who already have Tre Mason who as a rookie last year came on strong down the stretch of the season. Gurley who is recovering from a torn ACL may or may not be ready for the start of the season. He may or may not be the #1 running back in St. Louis when he is healthy. I'm not getting burned by those question marks.

Melvin Gordon drafted by the San Diego Chargers who also were led by a rookie running back last season in Branden Oliver has a much better chance to be a star right away. The starting job is probably his which already makes him intriguing. People don't trust rookie RBs in the fantasy world for good reason so if he drops just enough, he could be quite the steal for an owner who goes non-RB with their first two picks.

T.J. Yeldon drafted by the Jacksonville Jaguars. Good - he could and should be the starter. Bad - he is on the Jacksonville Jaguars. Do you remember how well Toby Gerhart did last year? Denard Robinson fared a bit better in spots, but the team is a mess. Yeldon will be drafted too high for my liking because of the possibilities. He may do well but I'm not risking a RB2 slot on him.

Ameer Abdullah, Tevin Coleman, Duke and David Johnson all have the same problem: they are slotted to start as the backup behind an average at best starting running back. All of them will get their chances to shine in 2015 whether it be from injury, poor performance or just being their turn to tote the rock. These are the top RB4s to stash on your bench for a rainy day from this year’s draft class.

As for Wide Receivers there are another interesting crop coming to play this season. Because of last year’s success they might get an unfair bump in ADP which will lessen their value. Kevin White steps in for the departed Brandon Marshall in Chicago (and then suddenly gets injured and will miss at least the first six weeks of the season). Amari Cooper becomes another in a long line of high draft picks for the Oakland Raiders. DeVante Parker gets the role that Mike Wallace once had. Nelson Agholor jumps in feet first to the run and fun style of Chip Kelly and takes the spot of Jeremy Maclin. For wide receivers who will have ample opportunity to be a fantasy WR2 or better, but best be drafted as you WR3 or later. It'll be a fine line come draft night as to whether they show up on my roster.

At Quarterback this year you get another #1 and #2 overall debate: Jameis or Marcus? I'll take neither thank you. If I had to guess who will be the 'Peyton Manning' and who will be the 'Ryan Leaf' of the two I'd give Mariota the Manning card.

Die Hard: With a Vengeance 

I love this film. Academy Award caliber, no, but that isn't what you hope for in a Die Hard movie. You want a sassy, tough as nails John McClane up against an evil henchman who seems to have everything under control up until it's too late to realize he was never in control. Yipee-kay-yay!! The third installment showed a washed up Bruce Willis who everyone thought he was a joke of a cop and a person prove he had another great effort in him. This brings me to our next topic: veterans who might still surprise.

Reggie Bush - He is just 30 years old, but in the NFL he is ancient. Last season was a disaster for him in Detroit, but now he finds himself in San Francisco. Frank Gore is gone (more on that later) making way for Carlos Hyde. Reggie Bush could settle in to the 3rd down back where he could thrive as a pass catcher. There are worse players to take a flyer on with a late round pick (especially in a PPR league).

Frank Gore - Speaking of Gore he once again proved me wrong by piecing together another solid season. He leaves the boring 49ers offense and gets to possibly excel in a wide open Colts attack. Defense won't be able to crowd the line so even at the ripe old age of 32 he could easily surpass his numbers from a year ago and be a upper echelon RB2 for you.

Vincent Jackson - Coming off a down year where he was overshadowed by a rookie, the 32 year old Jackson is primed for a slight bounce back. He won't be the focus of the secondary and he is bound to catch more than two touchdown passes. He still shouldn't be anything more than a WR3 for you with upside.

Carson Palmer - How many times have you heard 'If he can just stay healthy?' This is all you need to know about Palmer. If he plays, he'll do well. Do you realize Carson Palmer was 6-0 as a starter last year with an on pace average of 4300 yards, and 29 touchdowns over a 16 game season? He could be yours in the 10th round or later easy as well. How lucky do you feel?

Thor

This might be a stretch, but when I think about the Norse mythology of the Thor I think of the Minnesota Vikings mascot. After all he is based on Ragnar Lodbrok who 'was a legendary Norse ruler, king, and hero from the Viking Age' according to Wikipedia. See, it all makes sense now right?

As for the 2014 Minnesota Vikings, if you drafted any of their key players for your fantasy football team, you more than likely didn't win many games. Adrian Peterson played just one game last season after being a consensus top 5 pick. His off the field issues have been resolved in the eyes of the NFL, but he is still a jackass in my eyes. Then there was Cordarrelle Patterson who flopped miserably as an up and coming wide receiver. He was joined by Kyle Rudolph in the tight end slot who suffered through an injury plagued season. Three players, three failed seasons all for different reasons.

The gang is all back together for another fun filled season. Adrian Peterson will be yet another top 5 pick, but nobody know how the year off will affect him. Hopefully there are no more skeletons in his closet as well. Patterson will be the #2 or #3 WR behind Mike Wallace (who swapped places with Greg Jennings) and possibly Chris Johnson who could be a sneaky pick if he falls far enough. Kyle Rudolph gets another chance to be paired with coach Norv Turner who is supposed to be the tight end guru.

The key to how this will all work will hinder on the right arm of second year quarterback Teddy Bridgewater who might just be the league’s best kept secret. While everything in Minnesota was falling apart around him, Teddy held his own in his rookie year. With that out of the way, an expanded playbook, a hall of fame caliber running back and God given natural talent, Bridgewater is poised for a breakthrough season. Should you draft him as your starting QB in your draft? Hell no. Don't get me wrong I'm not going all-in on him just yet, but I would love to have him in my back pocket if I waited to grab Eli Manning or Tony Romo as my starter.

The Hateful Eight

For the first time in my five year history of doing this mash-up of movies and fantasy football I am including a movie that hasn't been released. The Hateful Eight is the next Quentin Tarintino movie and I cannot wait for it to come out. The plot is described as a bunch of all around mean and dangerous people stuck in a cabin during a blizzard where all types of mayhem breaks loose. Giggity! Let me guess, long scenes of exquisite dialogue mixed with violent bloodshed? I'm in. As for the title, I used this to give you eight players I am staying away from this year. Let's call it the Frank Gore list because of all the abuse I have given him over the last few years, but he just won't fade away!

 DeMarco Murray - Yes the overall #1 fantasy running back from last year. I'm not touching him. He had the sixth most touches in NFL history last season when everything went right. He was behind a dominant offensive line, he had nobody vying for playing time behind him and he had a predictable coach who leaned on Murray in a contract year when he pretty much knew he wasn't coming back. Now Murray is in Philadelphia who doesn't run the ball at the same rate as Dallas (42% to 50%). Murray saw 77% of the Cowboys rushes last season. The top Eagles back from last season, LeSean McCoy saw just 65.8% of the rushes. Philadelphia also has Darren Sproles and Ryan Mathews in the backfield to eat away at some playing time to keep Murray fresh in the up tempo scheme. All signs point to some major regression and a hamstring problem.

Calvin Johnson - For three straight years all of the important numbers for Megatron have decreased. Games played, targets, receptions and yards receiving all down. That is not good for a receiver who is about to turn 30. Fantasy owners don't see nor do they care about this. They see the name and they want him. He is still going mid to late 2nd round in fantasy drafts. There are far too many younger receivers with the same upside to pick before Johnson.

Mark Ingram - This could be the one that comes back to haunt me. It's not that I don't believe in what Ingram could be, I just don't trust the Saints this year. More importantly I don't trust Sean Payton. The last time the Saints had a 1000 yard rusher was Payton first year coaching in 2006. I certainly think Ingram has the best chance anyone has had since then to eclipse that mark, but I'm not risking a late 2nd round pick/early 3rd on that. Add into the fact that C.J. Spiller was brought in to be the 3rd down back and then some, I just am too weary. The Saints won't be a pass happy team, but my fear of Payton keeps Ingram off my teams.

Andre Johnson - New city. Better quarterback. Andre Johnson is back!!! Hmmmmm, no. His numbers have dropped just like Calvin Johnson over the last three years and he has just turned 34. The Colts have brought in Frank Gore to help balance out their offense. They already have T.Y. Hilton, Dwayne Allen, Coby Fleener and Donte Moncrief. There is only one ball to go around. Andre Johnson has not been a part of an offense like this. Temper your expectations folks. Don't let the glow of Andrew Luck's star blind you into wasting a fourth round pick.

Brandon Marshall - Pssst Brandon Marshall is now a New York Jet. Yes the same Jets who just lost their starting quarterback to a broken jaw in a locker room fight. Remember what happened to Eric Decker when he left Peyton Manning? This isn't going to end well. He's also going in the sixth round of most drafts. That's just silly talk. The Jets are awful and are already on their backup quarterback for the first quarter of the season. Go younger, take another running back or your QB here.

Drew Brees - Did I mention that I'm down on the Saints this year. Call it fear of the unknown. Just how will they look without Jimmy Graham? Graham was such an important cog in that offense I am struggling trying to figure out what we will see this season from Brees and company. Payton has threatened to run more and why not? On one side you have an aging Marques Colston and on the other side you have a young, unknown in Brandin Cooks who missed six games to injury during his rookie year. Like Calvin Johnson, fantasy owners will still see the name 'Drew Brees' and think of the good old days and reach a bit too early for him. This will be a down year for him and for you as well if you draft him as your starting quarterback.

Devonta Freeman - Devonta Freeman or Tevin Coleman? Is there a correct answer in Atlanta this season? Early drafts on ESPN seem to favor Tevin Coleman, but as I look at other websites, it is still rather muddled. This is how I feel the Atlanta backfield right now. I'll definitely keep an eye on these two during the preseason, but right now I'm steering clear.

Bishop Sankey - Okay this one is just personal. Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice I hate you forever. I don't want to hear the excuses about the Titans sucking last year and dragging Sankey down with them. They won't be that much better even with Marcus Mariota but even if they are I won't reap the rewards of a refreshed Sankey, because I'm not touching him.

Kiss of Death

 How did I miss this film? Shame on me. Maybe it is good, maybe is sucks, but I completely let it pass me by. This brings me to my next topic: Sleepers. If you aren't paying attention you just might miss a gem. Of course if you do go out to see that unknown movie that everyone says is going to be so great you just might come back disappointed and a few bucks poorer. I think back to the movie 'To Die For' with Nicole Kidman. What a heap of crap that turned out to be, but all I heard was how it couldn't miss. You hear that Bishop Sankey?? I'm so bitter.

Of course I've rarely picked a good sleeper which also bring the title of this topic home. As soon as I put these names down, they are destined to fail. This will be their 'kiss of death.'

David Johnson (RB) Arizona Cardinals - As a bitter owner of Andre Ellington I know that it is just a matter of time until the rookie out of Northern Iowa gets his chance. You could probably snag him somewhere between the 9th and 12th rounds depending on your league size and wind up with a starting RB for 4-6 weeks while Ellington is nursing yet another lower body injury.

Sam Bradford (QB) Philadelphia Eagles - As a fantasy owner I'm stuck between knowing he'll get injured and knowing he'll be in the Pro Bowl. I've seen how Chip Kelly's scheme turns the average quarterback into something special. Sam Bradford can be very special as long as he stays upright. You could do a whole lot worse with the 22nd quarterback drafted as he is currently going on ESPN.

Donte Moncrief (WR) Indianapolis Colts - We saw the flashes of greatness last season. Then he disappeared. Then the Colts brought in Andre Johnson. So much for that. Well that's where the definition of 'sleeper' comes in to play. My lack of faith in Andre Johnson and the ability of the Colts to score at will makes me confident enough to snag Moncrief as my WR4 and reap the rewards mid-season.

Unbreakable

 I feel like this is the most underrated of the really good M. Night Shyamalan movies. Don't laugh. Obviously there is The Sixth Sense, but I enjoyed Signs and to a lesser extent, but nonetheless The Village. Unfortunately he has turned into what Tiger Woods has become. We all know the talent is there, but as time goes on and the failures pile up you just don't believe he'll ever be good again. Of course this is why we keep buying tickets to watch both of them, just in case they hit lightning in a bottle. The ceiling is so high which make hitting rock bottom so painful to see.

For this topic I will cover the tantalizing option who happens to suffer from the injury bug. You can name this the 'Fragile' Fred Taylor category.

I start in Washington, home of the walking wounded. Lead member, and the perfect poster boy for this category is:

Jordan Reed (TE) - Week in and week out I watch the Redskins hoping for a return to glory. I am always disappointed. Every time Jordan Reed steps onto the field I watch for the hope that he makes it through the game injury free. I am always disappointed. I'll keep my eye on him and stash him on my bench...just in case.

Percy Harvin (WR) - If there is one franchise that makes me happy to be a Redskins fan it has to be the Buffalo Bills. They made a big splash by bringing in Rex Ryan and then LeSean McCoy. Well Percy Harvin finds himself in the land of the bad sports teams with probably his last chance to stay in the NFL. He's been injured on the field, he's been a malcontent off the field. But we all remember him in the Super Bowl. We know the talent is there. We will keep drafting him in the hopes of the glory days of just two years ago.

Jonathan Stewart (RB) - Just as one 'Daily Show' is ending, another one gets his big shot to finally be the one and the only lead back in Carolina. When he returned from his 82nd* career injury (*approximation) last season I added him to my roster because why not? I knew he could perform and when he actually did it was a welcome surprise. If you knew that Stewart would play all 16 games in 2015 how high would you draft him? Think about that when you see him still available in Round 3 or 4.

Hey look another spot where I could've talked about Sam Bradford. Maybe he should be the poster boy for 'Injuries 'R Us'.

For QB outside of Bradford please consider Carson Palmer (plagued, but has talent) or RGIII (plagued, but has issues) for you backup quarterback.

The Other Guys

 I saw this in theaters. I laughed. I barely remember anything about it. I swear it had its moments, but what they were I have no clue. I couldn't tell you if Samuel L. Jackson was a primary character, a secondary character or a voice-over. This is pretty rare for me. It has to be the early signs of getting old.

I've covered a good sampling of players who could be difference makers either for the good or for the bad for your fantasy team this season, but I missed quite a few. Let me briefly touch on some of..wait for it...the other guys.

 Shame on me for ignoring the machine that is the Green Bay Packers. I think the rule should be: you can't draft too many Packers. Aaron Rodgers? Money in the bank. Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb? So Good. Eddie Lacy? Dominant. You really can't go wrong.

 The Miami Dolphins seem to be on everyone's list of breakout potential. Starting with QB Ryan Tannehill who has seen his numbers get drastically better year over year. As he gets better, he'll make Jarvis Landry better and in turn open up the running game led by a very inconsistent Lamar Miller. I can easily see these three being big time swing players for fantasy teams. Either the hype will bubble and you'll lose all value or they will stay under the radar and pay off. Before you draft check to see how these three have moved over the last 7-14 days and act accordingly. You do want to get at least one of them on your team.

The Oakland Raiders...are still a NFL team somehow.

Although they suffered through a very disappointing season record wise the New York Giants rediscovered a potent offense. Eli Manning threw for the 2nd most yards and touchdowns of his career. This was obviously due in large part to the team utilizing rookie Odell Beckham Jr. as soon as Victor Cruz went down who responding with seven games of 100+ yards receiving (out of 12) with a touchdown per game average. In the backfield Andre Williams and Rashad Jennings combined for 1360 yards and 11 touchdowns which would be fine for any individual player, but neither proved to be good enough to haul the entire load. This could be why the Giants brought in Shane Vereen. No not to run the ball, but to continue to be the best 3rd down back in the NFL. Jennings and Williams can now focus their plodding efforts on 1st and 2nd down and Vereen can continue to catch 50 passes a year and be a worthy PPR league pick. The big question is can the passing game repeat the magic and will a running back emerge? Also can Victor Cruz return to any level of stardom? Eli Manning will be fine and will surely finish higher than 12th best QB which is where he is going in standard ESPN leagues. ODB will probably regress a bit with a better cast around him and the focus squarely on him this season, but still be a viable WR1 in all formats.

The Cincinnati Bengals are the definition of 'The Other Guys.' I mean, they can be good or mediocre and they get the same national coverage because nobody takes the seriously. This is in due large part to the 'Red Rifle' Andy Dalton. Just when you thought he was ready to make the stride to trusted fantasy option he regressed to worse numbers than his rookie year. Let's compare:

2011 3398 yards, 20 TD, 13 INTS

2014 3398 yards, 19 TD, 17 INTS

'12/'13 average: 3981 yards, 30 TD, 18 INTS

The key stats for me were passing attempts and completion %: Dalton attempted 35 FEWER passes than he had in his four year career, but set a high for completion % at 64.2. This tells me that the Bengals were worried about his INTs so they reined him in by throwing safer passes and fewer deeper passes. His yards/completion were the lowest of his career which solidifies my thought process.

Unless Andy Dalton can regain the trust of his coaching staff, he'll be relegated to a backup role in the fantasy world. 

A.J. Green missed three games, but even when he played his numbers were slightly down over his career as you would expect with the 'safer' play calling. His numbers were close to his rookie year in per game averages which also happened to be Dalton's rookie year as well. They are literally two peas in a pod. For Green to live up to his billing of a top 10 fantasy receiver the Bengals had better learn to live with the ups and downs of letting Dalton air it out.

The backfield is nearly equally as jumbled. Yes Jeremy Hill splashed onto the scene around Week 8 in his rookie season. Through the seventh week his average stat line was: 7 carries for 27 yards and he had scored just 2 touchdowns. In the final 9 games his average was: 19 carries for 103 yards with 7 touchdowns. Quite a leap. All the hype. Will he top 1300 yards and 12+ touchdowns as is expected with his late first round/early second price tag? I just can't see that happening as long as Gio Bernard continues to get 10 rushes a game and plays on 3rd down. I see Hill matching his rookie year at best this season.

Rules of Engagement/The Negotiator/Changing Lanes/Pulp Fiction

 A foursome of movies for my final topic.

Rules of Engagement was a run of the mill military movie where the topic of discussion was whether shooting upon people trying to get into a U.S. embassy was illegal or not.

When it comes to your fantasy football draft, there are no rules...put your shirt back on, okay there's just one rule. (Love that commercial). Old school with heavy RB drafting? I'm cool with that. Zero RB strategy which is the new age? Sure why not? All I can ever tell you is to know the rules of your league and adjust your cheat sheet accordingly. Just because ESPN/CBS/Yahoo! have a cheat sheet for a 10 team league with a flex and 0.5 PPR, doesn't mean that will help me in my 14 team, 3rd round reverse, no flex, no PPR league. Picks will be similar, but when every pick is extremely important, you cannot afford to make too many mistakes.

The Negotiator is, in my opinion, a much underappreciated movie. Maybe I'm just a sucker for Kevin Spacey in it. It's one of those movies that I have to watch if I come across it on television.

 Changing Lanes is one of those movies, on the other hand, which I watched once and never gave a second thought to. It was fine, but it involved people from two different walks of lives figuring out they needed to work together to help make each out a better person. Meh.

These translate to fantasy football in a very easy way. Please trade. Please negotiate. Please be active. Don't waste your leagues time by checking out after a 0-2 or 2-5 start. Give it your all for 13 or 14 weeks. Your roster should be nearly fluid save for 2-3 roster spots. Sometimes you'll trade away a play who is about to break out, but sometimes you'll trade him just before he breaks down.

Pulp Fiction was a game changer for me. I think I could easily list the three movies that stand out as the most profound for me being the movie addict that I am:

 1991: Terminator 2: Judgement Day 

My first R rated movie in the theaters, but what registered with me was grand scale of the action. My dad took his then 13 year old son and I was blown away. I had never seen a movie with effects like that. It opened a world of watching blockbusters in theaters. I love to see the explosions and the world ending on the big screen.

 1992: Rear Window

I was in an 8th grade Theater Arts class and our teacher exposed us to the world of Alfred Hitchcock. I was mesmerized by the style, the characters and subtle suspense. The summer after 8th grade I went through Hitchcock's entire filmography in what one could describe as pre-Netflix age binge watching. Now all suspense movies aim to be dubbed 'Hitchcockian' but for my money nothing tops the original.  

1994: Pulp Fiction

New age film noir? Quentin Tarantino as I described with The Hateful Eight above meshed together lengthy scenes of dialogue with over the top brutal violence while presenting very detailed and imaginative characters. This along with Kevin Smith's 'Clerks' opened me up to the world of R rated movies. Violence, language and hopefully a great story.    

I didn't really have anything more to say about fantasy football, but I had to get Pulp Fiction into this somehow.  

Best of luck to everyone this year and may your office productivity not suffer too much on Monday's as you discuss your fantasy stats with your office mates. 

Tom Hanks and 2014 Fantasy Football

This is by far and away my most favorite blog post of each year. It combines the three hobbies that I enjoy most in life: sports, movies and gambling. Each year I choose one of my favorite actors in Hollywood (movies) and compare their body of work to the upcoming NFL season (sports) and how it relates to Fantasy Football (gambling). For an example, last season I chose John Cusack and I think I did okay. Some good calls (Jordan Cameron doing well and the state of New York sucking) and some bad calls (Ryan Williams breaking out and DeSean Jackson being a bust) which is the norm for predictions before most starters step onto the field in preseason. As always I aim for 79% accuracy and 3 solid laughs throughout the post.

This season I'm covering one of the most recognizable actors of my lifetime, Tom Hanks. The winner of two best actor Oscars, nominated in three different decades (and nearly a fourth this past year for Captain Phillips), Hanks has done almost everything in Hollywood. He started on television with the campy Bosom Buddies, then did screwball comedies in the 80s (Bachelor Party, The Money Pit), graduated to dramas and peaking with his awards in the 90s and then turned to blockbuster franchises (Toy Story, the Dan Brown novels) and finally producing and a little directing. If you asked 100 people what their favorite Tom Hanks movie was, you would probably get 15-20 different answers. If I had to rank my top 5 Tom Hanks movies they would be:

5) Big
4) Saving Private Ryan
3) A League of Their Own
2) Toy Story
1) Apollo 13 (yes I just watched this again this past weekend, I can't turn it off when it's on)

So let me get right to it and tell you everything you'll need to know about the upcoming Fantasy Football season.

Sleepless in Seattle

Just like last season when I started with the defending champion Ravens, I head to the great Pacific Northwest where the loyal fans of the Seahawks finally got their first Lombardi Trophy. Where do I start with this stacked team? Stud RB, Marshawn Lynch? Dynamic dual threat QB Russell Wilson? Big play potential WR Percy Harvin? How about the dominating Defense? Last season was nice, but they could be even better this season.

 Let's go backwards with the defense which normally doesn't get spoken about in fantasy football articles. The Seahawks defense should be the first defense drafted and it will be a round or two before any other defense. They had six games where they gave up fewer than 10 points and were the best in the league in giving up yards to the opponent. How could they get better? They only scored four defensive TDs in 2013 and with their big play potential they could easily have 2-3 more this upcoming season. Percy Harvin is the great unknown. He was completely absent in 2013 until the Super Bowl when he had a kickoff return for a touchdown (see he's helping your Seahakws defense already!). With Golden Tate gone and Sidney Rice retired, it's all on his shoulders to make the passing game a threat. Drafting him will be all about value. His name and potential will increase his ADP while his injury risk will scare some people off. If he drops, he is a must pick, but don't go too crazy. That brings us to Russell Wilson who can be really, really good just as easy as he can be really, really quiet. The Seahawks play a run first style and then lean on their defense. Unless he gets his points early it usually winds up being a quiet day at the office. Hopefully with some of the losses on the defense the Seahawks on quite as dominant forcing Wilson to have to do a little bit more, thus raising his ceiling. Don't let the Super Bowl win fool you into reaching for him. He's a great #2 in a 10 team league and a fringe starter in anything bigger. As for Marshawn Lynch, all the signs of a first round bust are there. He's had a ton of mileage on his tires with 1,002 rushes over the last three seasons (including the playoffs). That's 334 per year for those of you who don't know how to operate a calculator. He has got to be tired (I'm tired just carrying my kid up to bed once a night). There has already been talk of more of a time share in Seattle this season with Christine Michael who is a must-handcuff for anyone willing to ride the rainbow one more season.

Big & Splash - Big Splash!

This is where I cover the rookie class...you know the guys who are looking to make a big splash onto the fantasy football scene. Some people call me a genius when they read these preview posts, others just point their finger at me and laugh like Nelson on The Simpsons. Anyways, this years crop of rookies will at least get more headlines than last years did, but whether they produce on the field worthy of a draft pick in your league is yet to be seen.

QBs: Blake Bortles, Johnny Manziel and Teddy Bridgewater - DO NOT DRAFT see that was easy.

Okay to be fair I'd pick any and all of them just in case in a keeper/dynasty league, but for a re-draft league only Manziel intrigues me as a backup. He will, of course, get 98% of all the rookie headlines this season whether he warrants them or not. Bortles and his fellow rookie WRs will have their moments, but not enough to worthy wasting a draft pick. They'll be waiver wire pickups sometime this season. I know I'm not alone in think that Teddy Bridgewater is in the best spot to succeed this season and for years ahead. He has AP behind him and Cordarrelle Patterson and Kyle Rudolph to throw to with Norv Turner calling the shots. If you told me he was going to start 16 games I'd be willing to put him in my sleeper picks as a QB1 in a 12+ team league. Yeah I have high hopes.

RBs: Bishop Sankey, Tre Mason, Jeremy Hill and Carlos Hyde (and even Andre Williams) - DRAFT 'EM ALL!!!

Already Sankey is being touted as ROY potential in Tennessee since CJbarely1K has finally been pushed away to New York. He should be the first rookie RB off your draft board, but there are a few behind him that, if given the right situation could easily surpass his numbers. If for any reason Zac Stacy falls victim to a sophomore slump, Tre Mason could step right in an perform quite nicely. The same goes for Jeremy Hill in Cincinnati as he sits behind personal favorite Gio Bernard. He might even get a good chunk of the touches if Gio can't prove to be an every down back (he'll be just fine, TYVM). Carlos Hyde and Andre Williams were afterthoughts just a week or two ago, but they have already moved up the depth charts due to injuries in San Francisco and New York (Giants).

Here's all you need to know about the rookie crop of running backs, find a spot on your roster for one at the end of the draft. Don't take a backup TE, K or D or God forbid a 3rd QB. Stack the back end of your roster with as many RBs as you can and hope they turn into gold.

WRs: Five of the first 28 and 8 of the first 45 in this draft were spent on WRs.

I'm not touching any of them save for Sammy Watkins as a WR4 at best. I just don't trust rookie WRs one bit. Last season Keenan Allen surprised everyone by being quite the stud, but remember he was the 8th WR draft in the 2013 draft. It's just too difficult to pick out a diamond from the rough. Plus, there are far too many good WRs compared to RBs in the NFL which is why loading up on rookie backs is far more advisable.

TEs: Eric Ebron - As Samuel L. Jackson once said 'Hold on to your butts!'

Note to self: Control your emotions Jason, don't give it away that you are going to try and draft (in every league you're in) the best offensive player to come out of UNC since...2013. I think Eric Ebron is destined for multiple Pro-Bowl seasons in the NFL. I may be typing with rose-colored glasses on as a fan of the Tar Heels, but it believe he's the real deal. He's in a great situation even though past Detroit TEs have disappeared even while Matt Stafford was throwing for 5,000 yards per season. Use him or lose him Matty.

The Money Pit

You remember this movie? Tom Hanks and Shelley Long keep pouring money into a house in the hopes of making it their dream home with disastrously funny results. I'm a Washington Redskins fan (this does not count as one of the laughs I was looking for Mr./Ms. Reader) and under Dan Snyder, the Redskins are like these characters when it comes to free agency. If you throw money at them, they will come. Well it doesn't always work out they way it was planned. In this section I'll look at a few 'old faces in new places' and determine just how big of a money pit they'll be.

QB: Michael Vick - Fun fact, In 2003 I drafted Michael Vick #1 overall, days before he broke his leg causing him to miss the first 11 games of the season. Good times. 11 years later he's just trying to be a starter on the Jets. Unless he's named opening day starter by the time you draft you can leave him to the dogs.

RBs: Chris Johnson - Hey look another new Jet. Not guaranteed of anything more than a timeshare, Johnson's stock should be pretty low and thus intriguing as a 'just in case' measure.

Knowshown Moreno - From the penthouse to the outhouse. Moreno heads from high flying Denver to Miami. Again he's walking into a possible timeshare with last years bust Lamar Miller. Moreno is certainly the favorite to emerge, but nothing more than a RB3 in most leagues.

Maurice Jones-Drew - After years of toiling away in the wasteland known as Jacksonville, MJD now gets to ride into the sunset of his NFL career in the wasteland that is Oakland. Now the Raiders actually made some decent moves to shore up their defense this year and thus should be a bit better overall. On the other side of the ball MJD gets paired with Run-DMC who together should be healthy for at least six games. The Oakland backfield will be a mess.

Ben Tate - He finally gets his chance to shine. Well that is if he doesn't lose the starting job to rookie Terrance West as I've already heard hints of through the grapevine (which is an actual grape vine in my back yard that I put my ear up to until the neighbors begin to snicker). If you believe in him, that's fine, but temper your expectations.

Rashad Jennings - He's already gaining traction as a breakout player possibility now that David Wilson has mercifully retired due to his neck injury. The Giants as a whole will be looking to rebound after a debacle of a season and if they can, Jennings may be at the forefront. If Eli Manning continues to crap the bed, Jennings may just be another option for your BYE weeks.

Toby Gerhart - Just like Ben Tate, Gerhart now gets his chance to be a starter after being stuck behind one of the best in the game. Jacksonville has a rookie QB and a very young WR core so they should struggle again to stay consistent on offense. Draft him with a cautious upside.

Donald Brown - He has burned me so many times and is now 3rd string on a team that will rotate RBs at will. Just how much will he play is the big question. If you get Ryan Mathews and have an extra spot to fill in the last round, you could do worse than Brown.

WRs: DeSean Jackson - Now the Redskins didn't back up the truck for Jackson which I'm happy about. Washington will deploy four smallish WRs and big Jordan Reed at TE. If RGIII can figure out how to be a better pocket passer or re-gain the elusiveness as a running threat, the passing game could be lights out in DC. Jackson won't be a PPR monster, but he'll get a few big plays. Solid WR2 option.

Steve Smith - In Carolina it was always about Steve Smith being the only receiving option. Now in Baltimore he'll be able to mix in with Torrey Smith, Dennis Pitta and the one who likes to beat on women. His numbers will be down, but he could still be productive in deeper leagues.

Eric Decker - More Jets! I'm staying away from Decker unless he plummets into the abyss during a draft. He is, by far, the biggest 'money pit' player out there IMO. See Jennings, Greg for an example of what to expect.

Golden Tate - When you draft him you must sing 'I've got the Golden Ticket, I've got the golden twinkle in my eye!' Detroit should be awesome again on offense with Megatron and Reggie Bush, but now with Ebron and Tate they could be near unstoppable. The only downside for me is he'll take away from the numbers that I know Ebron is capable of.

Emmanuel Sanders - He should be good for about 85% of an Eric Decker. That is plenty good enough to draft. He'll be the fourth option on a team that should have 40+ passing TDs. You do the math.

A League of Their Own

When it comes to studs, you won't find many sites who are willing to predict a down year. I will throw out the fact that I wrote about last year for LeagueSafe.com: A first round caliber running back from a team with a losing record will miss half the season or more. FACT.

Doug Martin was the causality in 2013 when Tampa went 4-12. The trend continued:

2012: Maurice Jones-Drew (10 games), Jacksonville goes 2-14; 2011: Jamaal Charles (14 games), Kansas City goes 7-9; 2010: DeAngelo Williams (10 games), Carolina goes 2-14; 2009: Clinton Portis (8 games), Washington goes 4-12.  Bad things happen to good running backs on bad teams.

So who will be the victim in 2014???  My best bets are Arian Foster or DeMarco Murray. Book it. Dark horse candidate LeSean McCoy!!

Outside of that the biggest worry I'll have with studs is Peyton Manning. He controls the fate of so may top picks. Five of the top 45 picks on ESPN.com are Broncos and Emmanuel Sanders is at 82.

We've seen what happened to Green Bay without Aaron Rodgers and Dallas without Tony Romo in the past. I bring up Manning because just because he was the best player in the NFL last year, that doesn't erase his medical history.

The two safest picks IMO of the consensus first round are neither RBs nor QBs, but rather Calvin Johnson and Jimmy Graham. If you don't get AP, Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy or Matt Forte in the top four and are scared of Peyton Manning for any reason, draft one of those two at five and six. After the first seven picks, life gets a bit more complicated.

Saving Private Ryan

Last season the Atlanta Falcons fell and fell hard. Tony Gonzalez came back to play one final year because he thought Atlanta, with the addition of Steven Jackson, had the final piece in the Super Bowl puzzle. Well a funny thing happened on the way to the parade down Peachtree Street. Jackson got injured (shocker I know), Julio Jones got injured and Roddy White missed some time. All in all it was an unmitigated disaster for quarterback Matt Ryan, so will 2014 be any different?

Steven Jackson is a year older and Tony Gonzalez finally hung up his cleats.

That's not good.

Julio Jones and Roddy White are back and healthy which is good. If Atlanta can find a running game (probably from someone other than Jackson), they have a chance to put up decent to above average numbers. I don't think Atlanta has hopes of playing in a Super Bowl this season, but Ryan should better this season. I mean, it can't go much worse than it did last year, right?

There will be some good value in Roddy White and Matt Ryan when drafting. I'd even keep an eye on Devonta Freeman who could prove worthy of more than a late round flier.

You've Got Mail

It was recently published that approximately 2.3 MILLION people are still subscribing to AOL dial up services. You have GOT to be kidding me!?!?! Remember when AOL was awesome? I barely do. This is where I will point out that some RBs might have a name that you recognize, but deep down inside you know they're waaaaay past their prime. Time to upgrade your services people.

I've already discussed a few of this years crop who are just trying to hang on to their fledgling careers.

1) MJD
2) Steven Jackson
3) Chris Johnson

Here are a few others that I would avoid unless you just can't pass them up because they've dropped like a rock:

4) BenJarvus Green-Ellis - put a fork in him, he's done. The Bengals have two young and capable backs to turn to and Green-Ellis will be looking for a roster spot somewhere when injuries happen by September.

5) DeAngelo Williams - This has been a slow bleed, as he has managed to stay healthy, but his production has basically flat lined. His last three seasons his YPC has gone 5.4, 4.3, 4.2 as his carries have increase each of those seasons. His TDs have also gone 7, 5, 3 in those same three seasons. More touches with less production and even fewer scoring. Yikes.

6) Ray Rice - He's just 27, but he's had a lot of work in a short time. Tack on the fact that he'll be missing the first two games of the season and Bernard Pierce will be itching to rebound from his sophomore slump, he is ripe for failure. Too much crap going on in his life to focus on the game.

7) Frank Gore - Prove me wrong again Gore...do it. Will this finally be the year that the 49ers use their stockpile of young backs (those that aren't already injured)? I'm saying that it is. Paging Carlos Hyde, you are needed at the sleeper desk.

 Band of Brothers

Okay, so this isn't a true movie, but it's an exquisite mini series. I just couldn't pass this one up. Also don't miss 'From the Earth to the Moon' and currently airing on CNN 'The Sixties'. Have you figured out what I will be discussing in this section?

Yup, everyone's favorite coaches to hate, Jim and John Harbaugh and their teams the San Francisco 49ers and the Baltimore Ravens. Just two years ago they were fighting it out for the Super Bowl, but both fell short last season. The Niners are in a better position IMO to get back to the promised land, but the Ravens have the advantage of playing in a watered down AFC.

I've already covered both Frank Gore and Ray Rice and how I think this will be a down year for both as they have both been just so good for so long for their respective teams.

At quarterback you have two guys in Colin Kaepernick and Joe Flacco who have signed big money extensions and are now expected to be elite for a long time. The key for Kaepernick is keeping Michael Crabtree on the field. When Crabtree plays, Colin produces big time fantasy stats. He should come cheap this year and provide great upside with a full year from Crabtree.

As for Flacco, oh Joe...he had more games with 2+ interceptions in 2013 (7) than he did 2+ touchdowns (6). That's not good. Of course the Ravens O-Line was in shambles which led to not being able to run the ball at all. Being forced to throw and to throw into traffic got him in a ton of trouble. Now with a healthy Dennis Pitta and the savvy veteran, Steve Smith, things should be better. How much is the key? You will draft him as a backup, but you could wind up using him if Baltimore gets hot.

Each team has a quality TE although Vernon Davis has at least proved himself, while we are all waiting for Dennis Pitta to join the elite members of the fantasy TE world. Davis scored 13 times last season, which was the second time he's done that in his career. The last time he did that he followed it up with 13 touchdowns TOTAL over the next two seasons. I have to believe that a full season from Crabtree will cut into his total scores, but he will still be a top 5 TE nonetheless. For Pitta, his owners would be thrilled with a 'Vernon Davis down year' type year with 600 yards receiving and 6 touchdowns. Lump him in with about half a dozen other TEs that you can get cheap and late and won't hurt you too much.

At WR between Torrey and Steve Smith, Michael Crabtree and ex-Raven Anquan Boldin you have four WRs all capable of big games and stretches of inconsistent fantasy numbers. If I had to put them in order of fantasy points I'd go: Crabtree, Torrey, Steve and Anquan. All worthy of a mid round pick and all worthy of starts and sits all season long.

Catch Me If You Can

In this movie, Tom Hanks runs around trying to catch a teenager who is kiting checks and emulating a pilot and doctor among other professions. In recent years, the NFL has seen a change of pace from plodding running games and low scoring offenses, to wide open, four WR sets and Tecmo Bowl style scores. There are a glutton of WRs who will be challenging defenses who are handcuffed by today's rules to catch them if they can. *Groan* goes the audience. Yeah you all saw that one coming.

In my opinion we are almost to the point where ALL leagues should require 3 WRs to start. In you average, run of the mill, 10 team league if you only played the top 20 scoring WRs of 2013 you wouldn't have used four receivers who posted 1,000+ yards receiving and three other receivers who scored 10 TDs!! Let's look at those names:

Michael Floyd, Brian Hartline, Harry Douglas, Kendall Wright, Wes Welker, Marvin Jones and Jerricho Cotchery. You could win some fantasy games with 3 or 4 of those receivers, no? None were in the Top 20 in standard scoring on ESPN last year.

Now if you stretched out the field and were forced to own someone between 36-40 we would get:

Eddie Royal, Rod Streater, Doug Baldwin, Greg Jennings and Terrance Williams (and yet big names like Steve Smith and Dwayne Bowe are still behind them!).

WR is deep enough right now that forcing owners to find that diamond in the rough makes it more fun rather than just running out Stud A and Stud C vs Stud B and Stud D. Yawn!

More roster spots everyone!!! Make BYE weeks, trading and waiver wire pickups mean something. It's just too easy if you don't push WR (and RB for that matter) past the top 30.

The Ladykillers

I must admit, I didn't enjoy this movie one bit. I saw it in the theaters and I would rank it in my Top 10 of worst movies I've paid money to see (also listed - and don't judge me - Freddy Got Fingered, To Die For, The Royal Tennebaums, Waterworld, The Truth About Cats and Dogs (date), Lady in the Water, Funny People, Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull and Star Wars Episode I).

But I'm not here to discuss bad movies, but I am going to point out my thoughts on the real 'lady killers' of the NFL, your starting QBs of the NFL. These are the guys who get the head cheerleader, star in all of the commercials and usually just look the best (face of the franchise for a reason). Even if you suck, yeah I'm looking at you Christian Ponder, you usually do okay in life.

Let's start at the top with Peyton Manning who may not be Tom Brady when it comes to wooing the ladies, but he is the face of the NFL when it comes to advertising. Between him, Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees you have three stud QBs and then the position becomes wide open.

This year I'd be willing to lump in Matt Stafford who I think will challenge for that #3 spot, but even if he falls short he should still produce huge numbers in Detroit. If you miss out on those four, fear not, there are 6-10 more QBs I think you can win a fantasy championship with:

(In no particular order)

Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, Tony Romo, RGIII, Colin Kaepernick, Jay Cutler, Andy Dalton, Russell Wilson, Nick Foles, Tom Brady, Matt Ryan and Phillip Rivers.

That's 16!! QBs who are all worthy of starting on any given Sunday. Sure there is some wide week-to-week variance of those final dozen, but if you get them late enough you should be able to make up the points by being stronger at RB/WR/TE than your opponent who drafted Peyton/Rodgers/Brees/Stafford in Rounds 1-3.

Here's my advice: draft a stud QB if you are stuck on picking between a RB you don't like or a WR you think you can get in the next round, but wait on QBs if you are happy with your RB/WR/TE picks in the first six rounds.

Angels & Demons

For my last film of the post I cover one of the movies that came from the Dan Brown book series where Tom Hanks is the lead character Robert Langdon. It's like the 'National Treasure' series with Nick Cage only with more religion and less world history. Either way I'm a sucker for all of these movies where it's basically good vs. evil and a treasure hunt.

As for how it relates to the NFL, when you draft your team it is all about maximizing your 'sleepers' AKA 'angels' and minimizing your 'busts' AKA 'demons'. Not too much of a stretch if I do say so myself!

Angels (Sleepers)

QBs: Jay Cutler - He has Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery and Matt Forte. He played in 10 full games in 2013. The numbers he put up in those games worked out to be a 4,100+ yard, 30 TD season. He is currently going 16th overall for QBs on ESPN. He was also on pace for 18 INTs so there is that. He has all the makings of a top 8 QB in 2014.

        Andy Dalton - In his three years in the NFL, Andy Dalton has started all 48 games for the Cincinnati Bengals. Each year he has seen his Attempts, Yards, TDs, Yards/Attempt, Team Record and unfortunately his INTs increase. He signed a new deal and now the question is whether he has peaked or whether he has one (or more) levels to grow. If the Bengals can find a TE to emerge and get Gio the ball 70 times out of the backfield, he may just hit that next upper level. Look for 4,400 yards, 35 TDs and 18 INTs to get the Bengals into the playoffs for their fourth straight season. That's better than the 17th overall QB as he is going right now.

RBs: Carlos Hyde - I've already touched on Frank Gore stepping aside sometime this season due to rest/injury/ineffectiveness. One of these years I'm bound to be right.

Joique Bell - Do I think Reggie Bush can put together another season of 14+ games while carrying the ball over 200 times?? No, no I do not. I think the Lions are going to play thing a bit smarter and let Bell tote the rock much more on 1st and 2nd down and let Bush be the 3rd down, trailing late in the game back. Bell gets an extra 60 attempts and finishes around 900 yards and 10 TDs. Bush still catches 50 passes and has 6 total TDs, but Bell is the Lions back I want.

WRs: Terrance Williams - Oh thank heavens that Miles Austin is gone for good from Dallas. Maybe now they can find someone to lighten the coverage for Dez Bryant and Jason Witten on the opposite side of the field. He's got a 1,000 yard season ahead of him with 7 TDs as Dallas will need to score 30+ points a week to have a chance. Currently he's the 37th WR coming off the board on ESPN.

Riley Cooper - I stay in the NFC East for another WR who showed flashes last season although he was stuck behind other guys. Well DeSean Jackson is gone and the Eagles aren't about to stop their high paced, fun and gun style. Somebody has to pick up the slack as the deep threat option. With Darren Sproles working underneath, Cooper should find some openings over the top to the tune of double digits TDs.

TE - Ladarius Green - He has had time to learn from one of the best and now he takes the lead. He showed some promise in the middle of the season last year so I know he can do it. Antonio Gates didn't top 50 yards receiving over the final six weeks of the season as father time was catching up to him. Draft Green as a backup and watch him explode by Week 5.

Demons (Busts)

QBs: Cam Newton - I know all about his top 4 streak he has going as a fantasy quarterback. That ends with a bang this year. A diminishing running attack, the loss of his safety valve in Steve Smith and the off-season surgery all adds up to an ugly year. Outside of the top 15 for Newton.

Johnny Manziel - Being drafted ahead of Jay Cutler and Andy Dalton. I'm sorry, but I'm just not on board for fantasy greatness just yet. I love the enthusiasm, but I think there will be a learning curve than most all rookies go through. If he had Josh Gordon the whole season, maybe, just maybe I'd get fully on board.

RBs: Who haven't I named already? Gore, Reggie Bush, DeMarco Murray and Arian Foster are my big four.

Overall I think this will be a down year for RBs which makes hitting pay dirt all the more important. Which is why so many people are using their first two picks on a WR/QB combo and then just loading up on 4-5 middle tier RBs and hoping to get lucky.

WRs: Andre Johnson - Blame this on Ryan Fitzpatrick. That's all I have and that's all I need. His numbers come back to Earth this year.

Larry Fitzgerald - His value rebounded last season thanks in large part to the 10 TDs while not even hitting 1,000 yards receiving (for the second consecutive season). Third times the charm has he fails to hit even 900 yards receiving and only 5 TDs.

TE: Outside of Antonio Gates you ask?

Julius Thomas - When something is just too good to be true like last season was for Thomas, I get a weird feeling. After scoring 8 times in the first 7 weeks he found the end zone just 4 times over the last 9 weeks including two lost to injury. Everything won't be all butterflies and rainbows this season in Denver so temper your expectations.

So that's it for this season. If you have read this you are already 8% of the way to winning your league! Congrats and please make all checks of your winnings payable to Jason Wippich.

Good luck and have fun.