I have always enjoyed Denzel Washington movies, but just like my prognostication abilities, he has had his share of flops along with supreme, award winning performances. He has the rare ability to portray both the hero and the villain and be believed by audiences in either role. That's why he does it for me. I'm am glad he doesn't get typecast into one character that he just rehashes with a different plot. You never know what you will get when you tune in and that's why you keep going back.
It's just like fantasy football (or sports in general), if the story lines were the same year in and year out, we'd get bored and stop watching. If you knew that the Washington Nationals would have the best record in MLB on August 8th, raise your hand. If you knew that the Cincinnati Bengals would make the playoffs with Andy Dalton at the helm last season raise your hand. We don't know and we like it that way.
Here are my thoughts on the upcoming season thanks to Denzel Washington and his fantastic career.
Unstoppable
This movie was about a runaway train and the one team that best resembled that last season was the Green Bay Packers. Sure they were tripped up in the playoffs, but fantasy football owners could care less about that. During the regular season the Packers led the NFL with 70 all purpose touchdowns. To put that in perspective the St. Louis Rams were dead last with only 18 touchdowns. They were probably a bit too pass heavy which hurt them greatly in the playoffs and maybe, just maybe, we'll see Green Bay scale back their aerial assault and try to work in a running game.
That might be a problem because I don't see an every down running back on their current roster. Their projected starter, James Starks is currently the 37th fantasy running back in drafts. There are only 32 teams in the NFL. Case closed. I guess nobody expects the Packers to overreact to their playoff failure and prepare themselves for the playoffs by running. Aaron Rodgers will once again be a fantasy monster and he better for your sake as you'll have to spend a top 5 pick to acquire him. Anything less than that and you'll lose his value in a very deep position in the NFL. I'm not a fan of using a pick that high on a quarterback, because there is usually better value later on in your draft. The wild card on this team (outside of Starks) is Jermichael Finley who I have lauded for years only to be letdown. He had a good year last year, but I know he can elevate his game to a Rob Gronkowski level with Rodgers throwing to him. The question is will this be the year?
The Book of Eli
I think we all should be subscribing to The Book of Eli now. After years of being ignored, Eli Manning finally had his most consistent passing year (which is still a bit inconsistent) and is now being treated like an elite passer. Not to mention he capped his year off with a second Super Bowl victory, the stars seem to be aligning for him to wriggle out of the shadow of his older brother once and for all.
Gone is the notion of the Giants being a run first (and second) team. Gone is the heavy footed, waste of space, Brandon Jacobs. With the emergence of both Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz as speedy, elite wide receivers, New York shifted its focus to keep up with the changing times in the NFL. They are now pass happy and use the running game as a change of pace. The Giants had 17 rushing touchdowns last season and their passing game still was very productive with 29 scores. I do not see any way that New York will score 17 times this season on the ground. If you take 5 of those scores from running to passing Eli Manning vaults to a top 5 fantasy quarterback.
I'll also play the role of devil's advocate. Hakeem Nicks is already recovering from an injury. Maybe Victor Cruz was a flash in the pan. Without the running game balance maybe the Giants get out of whack. Maybe Eli returns to his interception happy ways when he had 25 in 2010. Of course I pegged the Giants as the team most likely to implode last year so maybe I am just biased against them.
Deja Vu
Let me tell about two teams who handle their off season in two completely different ways. The Washington Redskins have been dubbed the 'winners of the off season' almost every year since Dan Snyder took over. The New England Patriots are usually very quiet and refuse to make many waves with free agent signings and selling off of their draft picks. In fact, New England is famous for trading down to acquire more draft picks and cutting their players a year or two before they get too old. Look at how they are treating Wes Welker. They are not about to sink a ton of money into a 31 year old slot receiver. They brought in Brandon Lloyd to supplant him in the near future. They just reload year in and year out...the right way.
The Redskins have to make the big splash. The constantly mortgage their future to get the biggest off season prize. Whether is was Bruce Smith, Deion Sanders, Albert Haynesworth or now (via draft) Robert Griffin III. As a Redskins fan, I am drooling over RGIII, but I know there is no depth on this team. The offensive line is already in shambles with their only asset 1 failed drug test away from being out of the NFL. They couldn't add any more talent because they were caught 'cheating' by the NFL when they circumvented the lack of a salary cap and exiled some bad contracts. They traded away 3 draft picks for RGIII including a 2nd rounder this year and their next two 1st round picks. Where will the help come from? RGIII won't be of much use in a full body cast.
The Patriots are always the deepest team in the NFL. They plug in backups at every position and still succeed. Lose Tom Brady in game one? No problem...still 10-6. Lose a roster full of defensive backs? No problem, throw in a wide receiver...still win the AFC East. Yes they haven't won a Super Bowl since waaaaay back in 2005 but they have gone twice since and I'd take that if I were a fan. How does this affect us fantasy owners? Simple, when was the last time anybody on Washington was relevant for fantasy owners? Clinton Portis in 2009? How about for New England...Tom Brady, Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, Brandon Lloyd and now they'll plug in Stevan Ridley at running back and he'll probably be more than successful. Like Deja Vu all over again.
Man on Fire
Who is the angriest person in the NFL? Who saw their head coach suspended for the year? Who had to fight tooth and nail to get a new long term contract after practically saving his franchise? Drew Brees that's who. Coming off of one of the greatest single season statistical seasons for a quarterback, Drew Brees has been put through the wringer this off season and it will be interesting to see how he produces. He also has to face the curse of hosting the Super Bowl this season. Remember how well that worked out for Dallas two years ago? There has been plenty of turmoil surrounding this team and I can easily see this team cracking if this go bad early. An injury here and bad break there (God forbid they lose to the Redskins at home to start the season) and the losses could pile up.
Drew Brees is the consummate on field general, but it has always been Sean Payton that was the straw that stirred the proverbial drink in New Orleans. Without him around the team this year I expect some more inconsistencies. The 46/14 TD/INT split for Brees might slip to 38/17. Not drastic, but enough to drop him down a notch. The wide receiver position in New Orleans has always been a tough one for fantasy owners. Sure they throw the ball a ton, but the Saints spread the ball around well. Marques Colston is not special, but he's consistent. Lance Moore and Devery Henderson have shown flashes and will have chances again this season with the departure of Robert Meachem. The big break out star of the passing game was tight end Jimmy Graham. He again will look to lead the team in all receiving categories and I don't see why he can't. He has the perfect mix and speed and size and great hands. I have him as my #1 tight end over Gronkowski because I think the Patriots will diversify their offense even more just to mess with us.
The running game is an interesting puzzle. Darren Sproles had 87 rushing attempts and 86 receptions. Pierre Thomas and Mark Ingram combined for 1000 yards and 10 touchdowns on the ground, but I expect Ingram to get a bit more work as the younger player this season. If he can stay healthy I can see 900 yards and 9 touchdowns from him. All three will be drafted and all three will have great games, but I see Pierre Thomas dropping off the radar by season's end.
Remember the Titans
This should be entitled 'Remember Chris Johnson?' or 'Remember Kenny Britt?'. Two of the bigger busts at their respective positions last season, both are looking to rebound. After holding out for a new contract last season, CJ2K came into 2011 a step slow and it cost him dearly. He had a couple of breakout games, but those were against some pretty bad defenses. Kenny Britt started out on fire, but a torn ACL ruined his season. Then he went out and got arrested AGAIN this off season so he is not only facing league penalties, but physical limitations as well.
At quarterback, Jake Locker looks to replace the aging Matt Hassel
It also doesn't hurt that the Titans play in the least talented division in the NFL. While Houston is a contender, both Indianapolis and Jacksonville have major question marks. Four games against them will be good news for a young team trying to find its way. Chris Johnson is the only player worth spending a high draft pick on, but there are others to keep an eye on including Nate Washington and Jared Cook who are both dependent on a good passing game.
He Got Game
The story about a young basketball star with dreams of greatness. Each year the fantasy world is smitten with dreams of rookies being the next greatest thing. I play in a keeper league in addition to a normal redraft league so it is doubly important to decide right away whether to invest in 1st year players or not. I have never been a big fan of drafting any rookies, no matter the position. More than not this will be a sound strategy, but every once in a while you'll miss out on a late round draft pick future stud.
Take A.J. Green for example. He proved to be a very good #2 wide receiver on a fantasy team with the upside of being an elite #1 receiver. I thought Andy Dalton would hinder his rookie numbers, but they worked quite well as a tandem. If they progress, Cincinnati could all of a sudden be full of quality fantasy options.
This season all the talk surround Trent Richardson in Cleveland and the aforementioned RGIII in Washington. The Browns offense expects to be centered around Richardson, but he is already hurting and according to reports scheduled to visit Dr. James Andrews to look as his knee. The Redskins hopes this season and the next decade rest on the right shoulder and sprinters legs of RGIII. He might not be Cam Newton this year, but he should be a viable backup/injury replacement quarterback and a definite must own in keeper leagues.
Outside of those two there are two running backs that will be vying for touches and could emerge as starters sooner rather than later. Doug Martin in Tampa Bay and David Wilson in New York (Giants) are both listed as the backups for their respective team, but both LeGarrette Blount and Ahmad Bradshaw have injury and performance concerns. They could give fantasy owners the best bang for the buck because neither are guaranteed 20+ touches a game, but will certainly be the first option when the starter goes down.
I am not going to endorse Justin Blackmon this season. He seems to be in the mold of Dez Bryant as a talented on the field player and a pain in the ass off the field. He will go way too high to be entrusted in drafting this season. No value for the pick. If you are going to take a flier on a rookie wide receiver I say look in the direction of Brian Quick in St. Louis or Alshon Jefferey in Chicago.
Dare I forget to mention Andrew Luck. He has some talent around him and plays in the weak AFC South, but I think he will be at least a year away from a starter for fantasy owners. Now a keeper league will be different as he will be a must own if you can afford to stash him away for a season.
Fallen
On the other side of the ledger is fantasy heroes of seasons past. Of the projected top 200 fantasy players this year, at least 20 won't be spoken of by seasons end or ever again. It may not be so sudden for everyone, but each year brings a new crop of youngsters looking to take the place of an aging veteran. Ryan Mathews excused LaDanian Tomlinson in San Diego and Andrew Luck has replaced Peyton Manning in Indianapolis. It happens to everyone.
My number one pick for this list is Frank Gore. It will be difficult to watch him decline this year. He was so good to me in 2009, but with Brandon Jacobs, Kendall Hunter and LaMichael James all in line to lessen his workload, Gore will no longer be worthy of anything more than a flex player by mid season. His last 100 yard rushing game was in Week 9 last year as he averaged only 54 yards per game and scored only 3 touchdowns in the 2nd half of the 2011 season. San Francisco has already announced their plans to use the other three backs more and Gore less, so don't say I didn't warn you.
At quarterback I have lost faith in 'Big' Ben Roethlisberger. What made him so good for his first 7 years started taking a toll last season. He is only 30 but his body is that of a 37 year old. He has nursed so many different injuries that I'm not sure he can be elite again. He had only five 2+ touchdown games last year while having four games of 0 touchdowns. That leaves seven games with just a single touchdown pass and that won't cut it nowadays. He is more than due to miss a couple games this season and the Steelers should start grooming a replacement.
The story looks to be the same for Baltimore Ravens wide receive Anquan Boldin. In the final 8 Ravens games, Boldin didn't top 63 yards receiving, scored only one touchdown and missed two games. That's not good. The one saving grace for Boldin is there aren't too many options to replace him. Outside of fellow starter Torrey Smith, only Jacoby Jones looks to take some catches away from him. Of course Ray Rice will get his share of receptions and whoever emerges between Ed Dickson and Dennis Pitta at tight end could be valuable, but this should be the last hurrah for Boldin.
Philadelphia
What to make of the dynasty in the making in eastern Pennsylvania? The Eagles can be so dominating and so lost all in the same game. There is far too much talent to not expect them to excel this season, but questions still exist. Can Michael Vick stay healthy? Is DeSean Jackson done being a head case? Is LeSean McCoy ready to be the best running back in the NFL? Will Andy Reid's head be in it this season?
Let's go down the list: No Michael Vick cannot stay healthy. He will miss a game or two or more and that is a problem for not only his owners, but the owners of all the Eagles. As Vick goes, so goes Jeremy Maclin, Brent Celek and Jackson. At least you won't have to waste a 1st round pick on Vick this season. If he drops in your draft to the 3rd or 4th round he might be worth the trouble.
Yes I believe DeSean Jackson's antics are behind him. He can easily bounce back and prove he's the game breaker we all thought he'd be last year. I certainly hope he learned from his childish mistakes last year and I'm willing to take him as my #2 wide receiver, but not my top one.
LeSean McCoy was asked to run more and catch less last year and that turned him into a fantasy stud. It was the only thing lacking in his game and fantasy owners never thought the Eagles would commit to the run enough, but that was proven wrong. Now as a true dual threat, we know that if you need a 30 carry, 185 yard, 2 touchdown effort (2011) he can do that. If you need an 8 catch, 86 yard, 1 touchdown performance (2010) he can do that too. Now if he happens to combine the two in a week...well draft him with confidence folks.
You have to feel for Andy Reid. He recently lost his eldest son and has already returned to practice. His family issues have been well documented and that along with the normal issues of coaching in Philadelphia for 13 years its amazing he has been able to hold it together. Eventually it has to add up and start to distract him doesn't it? If he is able to guide the Eagles to the playoffs this year, it may be his best coaching effort to date.
The Mighty Quinn
This is where I would have talked about Brady Quinn leading the Cleveland Browns to glory...but he sucks so I'll move on. You missed out Brady...you missed out.
Glory
Perhaps Denzel Washington's preeminent performance of his career (I did not care as much for Training Day) I will now try and pick a couple of guys who are set to break out this year with their own best performance.
At quarterback I'm going back to the well of Josh Freeman. Sure many thought the same last season, but apparently the player/coach dynamic under Raheem Morris was how do you say...not good. With new weapons including Vincent Jackson, Dallas Clark and Doug Martin he is a prime candidate for a bounce back season. Will he be good enough to crack the top 10 in the same mold of Matthew Stafford last season...hmmm...maybe. He needs to continue to add the element of running into his bag of tricks as he scored four rushing touchdowns in 2011...up that to seven and now we're talking.
A nice late round back could be Donald Brown in Indianapolis. Even though the Colts are expected to struggle, they still will run the ball and Brown has been elevated to the starter. There is no way that Indianapolis will have Andrew Luck throw the ball 40 times a game. They should be much more balanced than they ever were under Peyton Manning. Brown had 645 yards rushing and five touchdowns in only 12 games in a completely lost season in 2011 so why not expect a 900 yard, 7 touchdown effort this year? That wouldn't be too shabby for somebody being drafted as the 38th overall running back currently.
Wide receiver is the most difficult position to guess a breakout star in my opinion because almost anyone can do it with the right opportunity. I would have need 50 guesses at least for Victor Cruz so here goes nothing. I'm picking Denarius Moore from the Oakland Raiders. Why not? I think Carson Palmer still has a couple of bullets left in his gun and with young, emerging wide receivers in Moore and Darrius Heyward-Bey its only a matter of time for the Raiders to show some promise. When on the field, Moore made plays and that is all you can ask from a wide receiver. He scored 5 touchdowns on only 33 receptions and averaged nearly 19 yards a catch. The skill is there, the opportunity is there and a full year of Palmer is there. If he stays healthy he can hit 1,000 yards and 8 touchdowns easy.
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