Fantasy Football 2012 Preview: Pick 'em

Every year you can look back at your leagues fantasy football draft and see same round picks of a single position where one team got a stud and one team got a dud.  Last year in one of my leagues there were two of us that waited to draft a quarterback.  My friend and I are notorious for picking our quarterback late and when my turn came up I had two 'sleeper' picks left on the board: Matthew Stafford and Josh Freeman.  I couldn't make up my mind and I knew nobody else would take a quarterback by the time it got back to me so I let him make my decision for me.

With the 1st pick in the 7th round (14 teams), my friend drafted Josh Freeman.  Five picks later I took Matthew Stafford and wound up winning my league.  My friend missed the playoffs.  Sometimes it is that simple.  Another example was where the team before me drafted LeGarrette Blount which forced me to shift strategy and take Larry Fitzgerald with the very next pick because I didn't like any of the next group of running backs.  Later on I took Fred Jackson to compensate for not getting the stud running back in Blount that I wanted.  That worked out well too.

This is why the draft is very important and sometimes it has nothing to do what you want to do.  You must be prepared to scrap your entire plan on the fly because each year is different, each draft is unique and every competing owner is unpredictable.  Not to mention we really have no clue how each player will perform in the upcoming season.  All you can do as a fantasy owner is to draft players who you think will have the greatest success and get you the best value for your pick.

I'm going to take a look at some of the decisions you might have to make in your upcoming draft.  It could be the difference between playing for a trophy or dancing in a tutu for your friends and coworkers.  Don't end up dancing in a tutu for your friends and coworkers.

Quarterbacks:

Eli Manning (ADP 31.9 via ESPN) vs. Michael Vick (ADP 31.9 via ESPN)

One quarterback has won two Super Bowls and one quarterback has hinted that his team is on the verge of a dynasty.  Last year Michael Vick went 1st overall in my league and that owner went 3-10.  Eli Manning went 93rd overall as a backup and his owner went 10-2-1.  Nobody would have predicted that Manning would have 450 points to Vick's 271, but it happened and because of it they are a toss up this season.  For years Eli has been seen a great fantasy backup quarterback, but could never be trusted upon to start week in and week out.  I think that title has now fallen to Jay Cutler, but we'll discuss that another time. 

The Giants have two stud receivers in Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz and the Eagles receivers, DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin aren't too shabby either.  Eli Manning hasn't missed a game since becoming the starter in New York, while Michael Vick has played in only 25 of 32 games since the start of the 2010 season.  Eli Manning cannot and will not run for points for your fantasy team (4 rushing TD's in his 8 year career) whereas Michael Vick has 12 rushing TD's in the last 3 years alone.

The most difficult words to hear for a fantasy owner when describing a player are 'when healthy'.  When healthy Michael Vick is a great fantasy weapon.  Same for Darren McFadden and Andre Johnson, but when they aren't healthy...which is A LOT...they are useless to you.  I understand why owners are enamored with Vick, hell I drafted him 1st overall in 2003, but that risk is tough to overcome for a 3rd round pick.  For Manning owners know what they are going to get.  Nothing too flashy, the occasional brain fart game (see Week 15 vs. Washington which eliminated a ton of Manning owners from their playoffs), but a real steady starting quarterback by seasons end.

The ironic thing about these two quarterbacks is that Eli Manning would have been the perfect back up to Michael Vick last year and this year a quarterback in the same mold as Vick, Robert Griffin III, will be a perfect back up for Eli Manning in a 10 team league.

Peyton Manning (ADP 41.9 via ESPN) vs. Tony Romo (ADP 47.9 via ESPN)

So you're telling me that a quarterback coming off of at least 4 neck 'procedures' who is 36 years old and didn't play last season is being drafted ahead of a quarterback who topped 4,000 yards and 30 TD's in a supposed down year for him?  Tony Romo has Miles Austin, Dez Bryant and Jason Witten to throw to and plays at least half of his games in a dome on turf.  Peyton Manning has Eric Decker, Demaryius Thomas and Jacob Tamme as his best weapons and will be playing outdoors in the elements where he has seen a significant drop in statistics in his career.

I think people are drafting the name rather than using their brains here.  I think Peyton Manning is one of the greatest quarterbacks to have ever laced them up, but he has played in one system for one team with basically the same cast of characters his entire career.  This year he starts all over and nobody can be even certain that he's healthy or will stay healthy after he takes his first big hit.

For all the ridicule that Tony Romo takes for his late game failings, he is still a pretty damn good quarterback.  In his 4 years where he started 13 or more games he has averaged 4,081 yards passing and 30 TD's.  I don't see Peyton getting anywhere close to those numbers this year. 

Running Backs:

Adrian Peterson (ADP 23.3 via ESPN) vs. Darren McFadden (ADP 25.5 via ESPN)

Two running backs who didn't finish the 2011 season healthy.  This will be a significant topic of discussion leading up to drafts this year as along with these two Fred Jackson, Matt Forte, DeMarco Murray, Rashard Mendenhall and Jamaal Charles all suffered season ending injuries of some sort.  All but Mendenhall are tabbed as their respective teams starters and are being drafted in the top 35 picks.  I will not fault owners drafting any one of these backs, but you had better not select two of them in your starting lineup.

Instead of dissecting all seven, I'll highlight 'All Day' and 'Run DMC' because they have cool nicknames.  Peterson tore his ACL which is a red flag in itself for running backs.  To understand that he did that on Christmas Eve should mean he doesn't play in 2012.  Well...here's the thing.  Adrian Peterson is a freak of nature and apparently will be making a run (no pun intended) at starting in Week 1.  If that happens and he is even just above average you might win your league with him as your possible #2 back.  That's in a perfect world.  Reality tells me he won't be ready at the start of the season and he won't be more than average at best for the first half of the season.  That's too long to wait in the fantasy world.  I will be watching him closely and if I see steady improvement he may be a great trading candidate mid-season.

The best news for future owners of Darren McFadden is that Michael Bush is playing in Chicago.  The Raiders will not have anybody to steal touches away from McFadden unless you think Mike Goodson is the answer and I don't.  What you really need to understand, though is Darren McFadden will not play in 16 games.  He just can't do it and has taken over the 'Fragile Fred' moniker from Fred Taylor.  Taylor played in 40 of 64 games in his first 4 seasons in the NFL.  McFadden has played in 45.  I bet you didn't know that played in all 32 of his games over the next two years.  Maybe there is hope for McFadden yet.  

Trent Richardson (ADP 29.2 via ESPN) vs. Steven Jackson (ADP 31.5 via ESPN)

A tale of two running backs at the opposite ends of their career spectrum.  Richardson is a rookie who was drafted 3rd overall and is heading to a team that provides absolutely zero competition for touches.  Steven Jackson has had 7 consecutive 1,000+ rushing yard seasons and even though the Rams took a running back (Isaiah Pead) in the 2nd round, his job doesn't look to be in jeopardy once again this season.  I was personally burned by drafting a rookie running back in Ryan Mathews two years ago so I can't wrap my head around going all in on Richardson. 

The question for fantasy owners is do you like the steady Eddie or do you want to roll the dice on one of the best running prospects the NFL has seen in a very long time?  The Cleveland Browns will still be a bad team this season.  What that means is they will be playing from behind for the most part.  That doesn't usually translate to a lot of rushing attempts.  It's unknown whether Richardson will be a good receiving option, but if he is he will stay on the field more and be far more valuable than Steven Jackson by seasons end.  The Rams had a horrific season in 2011, but it didn't stop Jackson from having decent production.  You would have to believe that they will be better with a healthy Sam Bradford under center and if so Jackson may have one more elite season for fantasy owners.

Wide Receivers:

Mike Wallace (ADP 26.6 via ESPN) vs. A.J. Green (ADP 29.4 via ESPN)

You want red flags about Mike Wallace? I've got red flags.  He's holding out for more money.  His quarterback is the epitome of the walking wounded and now has a 'little torn rotator cuff' per ESPN.  He might not even be the #1 WR on his own team.  Antonio Brown saw 11 more passes go his way than did Wallace and basically matched him in receptions and yards.  The only saving grace for Mike Wallace is that he hauled in 8 touchdowns (to only 2 for Brown), but touchdowns is the one stat that fantasy owners cannot fall in love with. 

The Steelers could easily split those 10 touchdowns 6 to 4 instead of 8 to 2 and all of a sudden the fantasy numbers of the two receivers could be even.  Right now Antonio Brown's ADP is 70.4 and it is all based on his lack of touchdowns.  If Wallace misses any more of training camp it will be interesting to see if he starts slipping and Brown starts rising.

Staying in the AFC North A.J. Green is the unquestioned #1 receiver for the Cincinnati Bengals.  He was the same last year during his rookie season and was rather spectacular based off his expectations.  He topped 1,000 yards receiving and hauled in 7 touchdowns on only 65 receptions.  Another 10 receptions gets him over 1,200 yards and another 7 touchdowns would be the cherry on top. 

The 1A's vs. The 1B's in the NFC

The New York Giants, Dallas Cowboys, Philadelphia Eagles, Green Bay Packers and Atlanta Falcons all pose a problem for defenses.  They all have two really good receivers that could beat you at anytime.  That's all well and good for them, but for fantasy owners deciding on which on to draft could be very difficult.

Let's look at them briefly:

Atlanta - Roddy White (ADP 19.3) vs. Julio Jones (ADP 36.1)
New York - Victor Cruz (ADP 31.9) vs. Hakeem Nicks (ADP 32.2)
Philadelphia - DeSean Jackson (ADP 61.9) vs. Jeremy Maclin (ADP 63.4)
Green Bay - Greg Jennings (ADP 20.0) vs. Jordy Nelson (ADP 39.0)
Dallas - Dez Bryant (ADP 45.3) vs. Miles Austin (ADP 51.0)

That's 10 players on five teams drafted between picks 19 and 64.  Not all 10 are going to have an All-Pro season, but they will all, for the most part be a #1 wide receiver on fantasy teams.  So which one, and only one, would you draft?  

Roddy White is the first of the 'Big 10' coming off the board, but I can easily see Julio Jones outpacing him this season.  Last year as a rookie, Jones saw about half the targets, caught about half the balls as the veteran White.  Jones proved to be the deep threat averaging nearly 18 yards a catch (to 13 for White) and they both had 8 touchdowns.  Imagine if just 10 of those catches by Roddy White end up in Julio Jones' hands.  That 1170 yards for White and 1140 for Jones based off of their average yards per catch from 2011.

Victor Cruz came out of nowhere to not only surpass both his teammates in receiving, but finished 3rd in the NFL in yards.  He went undrafted in every single fantasy league in the world last year.  I'm sure even Victor Cruz didn't draft Victor Cruz.  There is really no way he can duplicate his 2011 stat line is there?  Well Hakeem Nicks is already injured and Mario Manningham went to San Francisco.  The receiver that I'm most worried about on the Giants is Nicks.  A broken foot is nothing to sneeze at for a wide receiver and that is what Nicks is coming back from.  If he slips due to injury concern I'd feel much better about 2 rounds later.

The Philadelphia Eagles were 'a hot mess' as the kids would say in 2011.  They were anointed as Super Bowl champions before the season started and finished 8-8 (even though the actual Super Bowl winners were 9-7).  The lack of health and consistency from Michael Vick tempered the numbers that DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin produced, but it wasn't all his fault.  Jackson proved to be the leagues foremost prima donna by getting himself suspended after missing a team meeting.  Add that to his numerous dropped balls and its a wonder people still have faith in him.  Jeremy Maclin quietly caught more passes than Jackson and even had one more touchdown than him.  Maybe this is the year Maclin ascends to the top spot in Philadelphia.

Greg Jennings is being drafted almost two rounds ahead of his teammate Jordy Nelson, but why?  Name recognition or a longer resume?  Aaron Rodgers is currently the best quarterback in the NFL and it probably doesn't matter who lines up next to him in Green Bay.  They should all be quality options, but I do know that Jordy Nelson will not catch 15 touchdowns this season.  He'll be lucky to do half of that.   Five Packers caught six or more touchdowns and that tells me the ball gets spread around.  Its the key to the Packers success, murder by numbers.  Greg Jennings has had 920+ yards receiving in five straight seasons and averaged 9 touchdowns per season as well.  He has easily been the most consistent receiver on the Packers, but the fact that nobody is a true #1 (just like the New Orleans Saints) is the reason why its so difficult to take one of them with your first 2-3 picks.

Neither Dez Bryant nor Miles Austin led the Dallas Cowboys in targets, receptions or yards.  It wasn't Laurent Robinson either.  It was Jason Witten.  Jason Witten is going 60th overall in a much shallower position for fantasy owners yet that is behind both of the wide receivers in Big D.  That seems kind of odd, don't you think?  To say I don't have faith in either of these two receivers is an understatement.  There is not reason that they should be going in rounds 4-5.  You just won't get the value you want from them because of the presence of Witten who is obviously the security blanket for Tony Romo.  If they fall to rounds 6 or 7 and are your #2 receiver, jump on them immediately, but don't reach for either one.

Tight Ends:

Fred Davis (ADP 103.9 via ESPN) vs. Brandon Pettigrew (ADP 107.9 via ESPN)

On one hand you have a very talented tight end who is one drug bust away from missing a full season.  On the other hand you have a great blocking tight end who catches a ton of short passes.  They could both potentially put up really good numbers this season and could both be on the waiver wire by mid season.  Brandon Pettigrew is a much safer pick, but his ceiling is far lower than that of Fred Davis.  With a rookie quarterback who can run and some new speedy wide receivers to stretch the field, the middle of the field could be wide open for him.  If he plays all 16 games I expect Fred Davis to challenge for Pro Bowl honors in a very deep position in the NFC.  The only thing holding Brandon Pettigrew back is how the Lions use him.  He doesn't go down field enough, he doesn't get enough red zone opportunities but and he blocks too much.  Outside of that he fits the mold of a very good tight end.  He is just on the edge of being a reliable starter.