Finally. The summer doldrums are just about over and the best time for sports fans is upon us. Not only is baseball headed towards the playoffs, but both college football and the NFL are beginning. In a months time the NBA will be back and hopefully the NHL will be as well.
Let me say thank you to the Olympics, Euro Cup 2012, Golf majors, Tennis Grand Slams, the College World Series and last but not least Major League Baseball for getting us through a very hot summer. Baseball has been especially exciting for me as an Oakland Athletics and Washington Nationals fan. I will definitely not forgot about them come September, but with so many other options to choose from I will certainly have plenty of story lines to crow about in the next couple of months.
But enough about the next couple of months...we have a three day weekend ahead of us as the summer torch unofficially changes into the fall torch.
7. College Football (Non ranked vs. ranked games)
The
first weekend of College Football is feast or famine when hoping to see
a competitive game. Not every game will be LSU winning by 40 points
against North Texas. There are some fun match ups to whet our palettes
here in late August/early September. Teams that don't like each other
very much meet up as Marshall and West Virginia square off. Clemson and
Auburn will fight over which mascot gets to keep the name Tigers. Penn
St. tries to return to normalcy as they begin their life post-Joe Pa
and scandal against Ohio. USC starts the season #1 and welcomes Hawaii
in for a warm up. One game I'm intrigued to watch will be Navy and
Notre Dame playing in Ireland. With a perfect 9am start time it will be
a great way to start the weekend (while at work for me).
6. Boise St. Broncos at Michigan St. Spartans
Gone
are Kirk Cousins and Kellen Moore for the respective schools. With
both teams starting from scratch it will be interesting to see if either
team will be able to be a national contender this season. Whether
successful or not this year, it is a fact that Boise St. will be leaving
the Mountain West conference and heading to the Big East as of next
year. Geographically challenged issues aside, it will be good for their
school to finally face better competition to try and prove if they are
actually as good as they think they are. This should be a rebuilding
year for Boise St., but with a preseason ranking of 13 for Michigan St.,
hopes are high for a smooth transition from Cousins to senior
quarterback Andrew Maxwell.
5. St. Louis Cardinals at Washington Nationals
A possible playoff preview in the Nation's Capital. The defending champions against a team primed to be in contention for the foreseeable future. This is a huge 4 game set for both teams. The Cardinals have been chased out of contention in the N.L. Central due to the continued excellence of the Cincinnati Reds, and are currently trying to fend off both the Pittsburgh Pirates and the L.A. Dodgers for the 2nd Wild Card spot. The Nationals have been slumping of late with a recent 5 game losing streak but starting last night, they have 11 straight games at home. They look to have a comfortable five game lead over the Atlanta Braves, but with the distraction of the Stephen Strasburg shutdown and the fact that they have never been in this position in September anything is still possible.
4. Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees
I don't think anyone had this series circled in April one that could hold the key to who will win the A.L. East, but that's why they play the games. The Orioles sit only 3 games back of the might Yankees and with a miraculous weekend they could be tied by Labor Day. The Tampa Bay Rays are right there as well sitting one game behind Baltimore and are playing lowly Toronto with hopes of keeping this a 3 way race all the way until the end of the season. Maybe this will be the weekend where New York starts to build towards the playoffs. Since going to Oakland in mid-July the Yankees are only 18-21 and have nearly squandered the 10 game lead they had at that point. Nobody seems to understand just how Baltimore is winning. I'll put it simply...their bullpen has been fantastic. Without a great bullpen you can't go 24-6 in one run games and 12-2 in extra innings like the Orioles currently are.
3. U.S. Open Tennis
With the first
couple of rounds out of the way, the real tournament can now begin.
Even though he probably won't be around much past this weekend, American
Andy Roddick has announced he will be retiring after the U.S. Open.
For nearly a decade he was the best hope for the U.S. to win in Men's
Tennis Grand Slam event after Pete Sampras and Andre Agassi retired. After winning the U.S. Open in 2003, Roddick could never climb that mountain again in a Grand Slam event.
As for people who could win this year all the usual suspects are around
(save for Rafael Nadal who is once again nursing injuries). Federer,
Novak, Serena and Sharapova are all alive and are expected to contend,
but when the lights are on in New York City magical things sometimes
happen and that is why we watch.
2. Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers
I'll admit it, I called the A.L. Central over long ago. I thought for sure the Tigers would have run and hid from the White Sox by now. What do I know anyways? Heading into this series Chicago still holds a 3 game lead with no signs of wavering. This series also brings us Chris Sale vs. Justin Verlander on Sunday night. As the final Sunday without the NFL to compete with, MLB has given fans the ultimate treat as a send off. Two Cy Young candidates facing each other with the division title at stake...niiiiice. I'm still saying the Tigers win the division and I still say it will be by around 4 or 5 games so sweeping Chicago this weekend might be a good start to make me look less foolish.
1. Michigan Wolverines vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
The defending champions get a real test right out of the gate as Alabama and Michigan head to Dallas Cowboys Stadium to get the first weekend of College Football started off with a bang. This will be the first time that these two school meet outside of a Bowl Game and only the fourth time ever. Senior quarterback Denard Robinson will need to be more like he was in 2010 than 2011 for Michigan to keep close. After breaking onto the scene, Robinson regressed in almost all statistical categories last season. Alabama may have lost some key pieces, but they don't rebuild, they just reload and the defense that was NFL worthy last season should be extremely stingy once again.
Friday, August 31, 2012
Sunday, August 19, 2012
The Newest 'Big 3'
I promised I wasn't going to write a blog post during 'Fantasy Football Draft Week', but here I am sitting down on Sunday night inspired once again by the Washington Nationals. All the recent focus for the team is the imminent shutout of star pitcher Stephen Strasburg. If you think I'm going to rant about that tonight, you're wrong. If you think I'm going to write about the Nationals getting oh so close to clinching their first ever playoff spot...not just yet. With 41 games left they hold a 5 game lead in the N.L. East and it with the second place Atlanta Braves coming to town we might know a little more about the fate of the 2012 Nationals in 72 hours.
With 121 games in the books, Washington is 3/4 of the way through a possibly magical season. It reminds me of the 2001 Oakland Athletics who get real good, real quick. It was a year faster than expected, but once the ball got rolling the team wouldn't and couldn't stop winning. That Athletics team won 102 games that season (finishing a scant 14 games out of 1st place behind the fluke of a team that was Seattle). This years Nationals are on pace to win 100.5 games (which I am being told is impossible to do) and they are doing it with a very similar structure.
Both the 2012 Nationals and the 2001 Athletics relied on their top 3 starting pitchers. In 2001 for Oakland it was Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder and Barry Zito. This year it is Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez and Jordan Zimmermann in Washington. Of course during my lifetime, the 2001 Athletics were quickly compared to the Atlanta Braves 'Big 3' of Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine and John Smoltz who first united in 1993.
Atlanta ended up with 7 seasons (1993-1999) with their version, Oakland got only 4 seasons (2001-2004) and with all three of the Nationals starters locked up until at least 2016, it looks like we could get at minimum 5 seasons of the current 'Big 3'. So how do the 2012 Nationals stack up against the 'best of the best' during my lifetime? That is the question that got me researching and now typing. Is it a bit premature to lump Strasburg and company in with the others? Maybe. But what I found out in looking back is very interesting to say the least.
Here are a look at some of the best seasons that the Braves and Athletics 'Big 3's' amassed:
1993 Atlanta Braves
Maddux, Smoltz and Glavine were an average age of 26.6 years old.
Record: 57-27 Win Percentage: 68% Combined ERA: 3.03 (N.L. ERA 4.05)
Lost NLCS
1995 Atlanta Braves
Maddux, Smoltz and Glavine were an average age of 28.6 years old.
Record: 47-16 Win Percentage: 75% Combined ERA: 2.79 (N.L. ERA 4.18)
Won World Series
1996 Atlanta Braves
Maddux, Smoltz and Glavine were an average age of 29.6 years old.
Record: 54-29 Win Percentage: 65% Combined ERA: 2.88 (N.L ERA 4.22)
Lost World Series
1997 Atlanta Braves
Maddux, Smoltz and Glavine were an average age of 30.6 years old.
Record: 48-23 Win Percentage: 68% Combined ERA: 2.74 (N.L. ERA 4.21)
Lost NLCS
1998 Atlanta Braves
Maddux, Smoltz and Glavine were an average age of 31.6 years old.
Record: 55-18 Win Percentage: 75% Combined ERA: 2.49 (N.L. ERA 4.24)
Lost NLCS
2001 Oakland Athletics
Hudson, Mulder and Zito were an average age of 23.6 years old.
Record: 56-25 Win Percentage: 69% Combined ERA: 3.43 (A.L. ERA 4.48)
Lost ALDS
2002 Oakland Athletics
Hudson, Mulder and Zito were an average age of 24.6 years old.
Record: 57-21 Win Percentage: 73% Combined ERA: 3.05 (A.L. ERA 4.47)
Lost ALDS
2012 Washington Nationals
Strasburg, Gonzalez, Zimmerman are an average age of 25 years old.
Record as of 8/19/12: 39-18 Win Percentage: 68% Combined ERA: 2.86 (N.L. ERA 4.00)
With 41 games left (and ignoring Strasburg being shut down) the 'Big 3' will get 24 more starts and that puts them on pace for a record of: 52-24 and that low (relatively speaking) win total is thanks in large part to the lack of offense Jordan Zimmermann received in the 1st half of the season, but stuff happens.
One key statistic is that from 1993-1999 the Atlanta Braves made the playoffs each year that there were playoffs (the strike in 1994 canceled the playoffs). The Oakland Athletics made the playoffs between 2001-2003 and finished 1 game behind the Angels in 2004. According to ESPN the Washington Nationals have a 99.1% chance of making the playoffs this season.
The next key statistic is there being only 1 World Series championship over the 10 full seasons of the Braves and Athletics pitching accomplishments. You have to have some exceedingly high expectations for the Nationals over the next 5 seasons that withstanding. Pitching may not win you a World Series title, but it certainly gives you a leg up on the competition.
The final key to the three teams is the durability that the pitchers had while together. It takes a full season of health to put up the gaudy win totals that were seen. The Athletics didn't wait for injury to derail their pitching, but rather traded away their key assets at their peak. Mark Mulder's career was shortened by back injuries after being traded away, Tim Hudson has fought through injuries in Atlanta and Barry Zito forgot how to throw strikes after crossing the Bay into San Francisco.
The Braves just kept rolling their trio out year after year with the payroll big enough to afford them. John Smoltz was then injured in 2000 and most of 2001 and turned into a reliever for 3 seasons before rejoining the Braves rotation with Hudson in 2005. Both Tom Glavine and Greg Maddux stayed mostly injury free for the remainder of their careers although Maddux returned to Chicago in 2004 and Glavine went to the rival Mets in 2003.
The future of the Washington Nationals has a wonderful foundation as long as Strasburg, Gonzalez and Zimmermann stay healthy and together. It appears the higher ups in the Nationals organization are playing it safe with Strasburg (coming off of Tommy John surgery in 2010) this season with the looming 'shutdown', but if it ensures four more seasons of watching the newest 'Big 3' pitch it may just be worth it.
That being said...let the big dog run.
Oh yeah, I'll be at Monday's game watching Tim Hudson vs. Jordan Zimmermann...it all comes full circle, doesn't it?
With 121 games in the books, Washington is 3/4 of the way through a possibly magical season. It reminds me of the 2001 Oakland Athletics who get real good, real quick. It was a year faster than expected, but once the ball got rolling the team wouldn't and couldn't stop winning. That Athletics team won 102 games that season (finishing a scant 14 games out of 1st place behind the fluke of a team that was Seattle). This years Nationals are on pace to win 100.5 games (which I am being told is impossible to do) and they are doing it with a very similar structure.
Both the 2012 Nationals and the 2001 Athletics relied on their top 3 starting pitchers. In 2001 for Oakland it was Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder and Barry Zito. This year it is Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez and Jordan Zimmermann in Washington. Of course during my lifetime, the 2001 Athletics were quickly compared to the Atlanta Braves 'Big 3' of Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine and John Smoltz who first united in 1993.
Atlanta ended up with 7 seasons (1993-1999) with their version, Oakland got only 4 seasons (2001-2004) and with all three of the Nationals starters locked up until at least 2016, it looks like we could get at minimum 5 seasons of the current 'Big 3'. So how do the 2012 Nationals stack up against the 'best of the best' during my lifetime? That is the question that got me researching and now typing. Is it a bit premature to lump Strasburg and company in with the others? Maybe. But what I found out in looking back is very interesting to say the least.
Here are a look at some of the best seasons that the Braves and Athletics 'Big 3's' amassed:
1993 Atlanta Braves
Maddux, Smoltz and Glavine were an average age of 26.6 years old.
Record: 57-27 Win Percentage: 68% Combined ERA: 3.03 (N.L. ERA 4.05)
Lost NLCS
1995 Atlanta Braves
Maddux, Smoltz and Glavine were an average age of 28.6 years old.
Record: 47-16 Win Percentage: 75% Combined ERA: 2.79 (N.L. ERA 4.18)
Won World Series
1996 Atlanta Braves
Maddux, Smoltz and Glavine were an average age of 29.6 years old.
Record: 54-29 Win Percentage: 65% Combined ERA: 2.88 (N.L ERA 4.22)
Lost World Series
1997 Atlanta Braves
Maddux, Smoltz and Glavine were an average age of 30.6 years old.
Record: 48-23 Win Percentage: 68% Combined ERA: 2.74 (N.L. ERA 4.21)
Lost NLCS
1998 Atlanta Braves
Maddux, Smoltz and Glavine were an average age of 31.6 years old.
Record: 55-18 Win Percentage: 75% Combined ERA: 2.49 (N.L. ERA 4.24)
Lost NLCS
2001 Oakland Athletics
Hudson, Mulder and Zito were an average age of 23.6 years old.
Record: 56-25 Win Percentage: 69% Combined ERA: 3.43 (A.L. ERA 4.48)
Lost ALDS
2002 Oakland Athletics
Hudson, Mulder and Zito were an average age of 24.6 years old.
Record: 57-21 Win Percentage: 73% Combined ERA: 3.05 (A.L. ERA 4.47)
Lost ALDS
2012 Washington Nationals
Strasburg, Gonzalez, Zimmerman are an average age of 25 years old.
Record as of 8/19/12: 39-18 Win Percentage: 68% Combined ERA: 2.86 (N.L. ERA 4.00)
With 41 games left (and ignoring Strasburg being shut down) the 'Big 3' will get 24 more starts and that puts them on pace for a record of: 52-24 and that low (relatively speaking) win total is thanks in large part to the lack of offense Jordan Zimmermann received in the 1st half of the season, but stuff happens.
One key statistic is that from 1993-1999 the Atlanta Braves made the playoffs each year that there were playoffs (the strike in 1994 canceled the playoffs). The Oakland Athletics made the playoffs between 2001-2003 and finished 1 game behind the Angels in 2004. According to ESPN the Washington Nationals have a 99.1% chance of making the playoffs this season.
The next key statistic is there being only 1 World Series championship over the 10 full seasons of the Braves and Athletics pitching accomplishments. You have to have some exceedingly high expectations for the Nationals over the next 5 seasons that withstanding. Pitching may not win you a World Series title, but it certainly gives you a leg up on the competition.
The final key to the three teams is the durability that the pitchers had while together. It takes a full season of health to put up the gaudy win totals that were seen. The Athletics didn't wait for injury to derail their pitching, but rather traded away their key assets at their peak. Mark Mulder's career was shortened by back injuries after being traded away, Tim Hudson has fought through injuries in Atlanta and Barry Zito forgot how to throw strikes after crossing the Bay into San Francisco.
The Braves just kept rolling their trio out year after year with the payroll big enough to afford them. John Smoltz was then injured in 2000 and most of 2001 and turned into a reliever for 3 seasons before rejoining the Braves rotation with Hudson in 2005. Both Tom Glavine and Greg Maddux stayed mostly injury free for the remainder of their careers although Maddux returned to Chicago in 2004 and Glavine went to the rival Mets in 2003.
The future of the Washington Nationals has a wonderful foundation as long as Strasburg, Gonzalez and Zimmermann stay healthy and together. It appears the higher ups in the Nationals organization are playing it safe with Strasburg (coming off of Tommy John surgery in 2010) this season with the looming 'shutdown', but if it ensures four more seasons of watching the newest 'Big 3' pitch it may just be worth it.
That being said...let the big dog run.
Oh yeah, I'll be at Monday's game watching Tim Hudson vs. Jordan Zimmermann...it all comes full circle, doesn't it?
Monday, August 13, 2012
Pocket Pair 8/13/12: Weekend Recap
The first full weekend of preseason football is behind us and the two biggest casualties were lost in two completely different ways. San Diego Chargers running back Ryan Mathews was injured right off the bat with a broken collarbone and will likely miss the first couple of regular season games. His fantasy stock had skyrocketed in the off season with the departure of touchdown vulture Mike Tolbert from the Chargers backfield. Now it will be very interesting to see how far Mathews drops in fantasy drafts. If he misses just a game or two he will still end up being rather valuable, but if it stretches to a third or even a fourth missed game it would be tough to spend a 2nd/3rd round pick on someone like that.
The other player that had a really bad weekend was Miami Dolphins receiver Chad Johnson. Arrested on a domestic abuse charge, he was released by the team late Sunday night. New (old) name, same old dumb ass. What little fantasy value Chad Johnson had, is officially gone now and it will be interesting to see if his career is now over. So much for that Hall of Fame jacket Chad.
------------------------------------------
As for what you should have watched this weekend:
6. St. Louis Rams at Indianapolis Colts
Peyton who? It looks like Andrew Luck might have a future in football. He looked pretty damn good against an obviously flawed Rams team, but I won't let that dampen his first professional game. Luck finished 10/16 for 188 yards and 2 passing touchdowns including a 63 yard score to running back Donald Brown. Both Andrew Luck and Peyton Manning threw a touchdown on their first ever pass for the Colts...just sayin'. For St. Louis, Sam Bradford was efficiently unimpressive as he completed 7 of his 9 attempts, but for a paltry 57 yards. You can't read much into either stat line, but at least Bradford didn't get injured...yet. Andrew Luck will have plenty of great moments this season and he is bound to look like a rookie at times as well, so don't go too overboard just yet.
5. Washington Nationals at Arizona Diamondbacks
In a series that the Arizona Diamondbacks desperately needed to win, they entered Sunday hoping for a big start from rookie Patrick Corbin just to avoid being swept away. Stephen Strasburg dominated Arizona on Friday night and a 5 run fifth inning by the Nationals sunk them Saturday night. Corbin struck out 7 Nationals over seven very effective innings as Arizona ran away from Washington to salvage the final game of the series. The loss broke the Nationals 8 game winning streak, but they still hold a 4 game lead in the N.L. East. The Diamondbacks are five games out and in third place in the N.L. West.
4. Oakland Athletics at Chicago White Sox
This series had almost everything you could ask for in a series. A walk off win, some bad blood, a dominant pitching performance and a player popping his shoulder in after dislocating it and the getting the go ahead hit a half inning later....say what? Let's slow down and roll back the clock to Friday night. The Athletics jumped out to a 3-0 lead, but three solo home runs later the game was tied at 3 in the bottom of the ninth. That's where Jordan Danks hit his 1st career home run, a game winner for the White Sox. Also that night both Yoenes Cespedes and then later A.J. Pierzynksi were hit by pitches. Cespedes got hit a bit high, but just took his base like a professional. Pierzynski who had homered earlier felt the need to stare down Brandon McCarthy the whole way down to 1st like the douche he is. Sunday saw Chicago starter Chris Sale strike out 11 over 6.2 innings as he helped Chicago cruise to victory. In between the two White Sox victories, Brandon Inge became a cult hero in Oakland Saturday night. After blowing a 6-2 lead the Athletics and White Sox were tied at 6 in the bottom of the seventh. A hot shot down to 3rd was snagged by Inge who dislocated his shoulder on the dive. He then called time and popped it back into place and stayed in the game. The White Sox took the lead, but the inning ended on a double play started by Inge. He then came up in the top of the 8th after Oakland had rallied to tie it at 7 and hit the go ahead single as the Athletics held on to win 9-7. Although he'll probably end up on the DL, I don't think anyone in Oakland will forget that effort for a long time.
3. Detroit Tigers at Texas Rangers
Detroit must have felt really good about their chances in this series after storming into Texas and taking game one behind a stellar effort from Max Scherzer and a big home run from Prince Fielder. With Justin Verlander on the mound, the Tigers had a prime opportunity to take the series and look for a sweep. Verlander did his part with 7 strong innings, but he was matched pitch for pitch (and then some) by Derek Holland. The game was ended by rookie sensation Mike Olt who singled with two outs in the ninth after a lengthy at bat. Sunday saw Yu Darvish continue his trend of pitching just well enough to get a win behind the powerful offense of the Rangers. He threw 120 pitches over 6.2 innings giving up 6 hits, 5 walks and struck out 8 batters, but managed to only give up 3 runs. Josh Hamilton hit a home run and the Rangers took advantage of some sloppy Detroit defense to pull away and take the series. The Tigers lost a game in the standings to the White Sox this weekend while the Rangers gained a game on both the Athletics and Angles who each lost their respective series.
2. PGA Championship
There's nothing like a crowded leader board on the back nine of a Major Championship in golf. Rory McIlroy was having none of that this weekend. After John Daly enthralled us on Thursday, he fell out of it with a bad Friday. Adam Scott suffered the same fate with a poor Friday and couldn't get things rolling on the weekend. Tiger Woods played very consistently on Friday and actually held the lead going into the weekend. In years past the tournament would have been over and Tiger would have run away with it. Well the winner won by a PGA Championship record 8 strokes, but it wasn't Tiger. Just like he did at the U.S. Open last year, Rory McIlroy looked like Tiger Woods of a decade ago. Once he got rolling, he didn't stop. He showed no mercy for his competitors and matched his 8 stroke victory from his only other Major victory.
The comparisons had already started between Woods and McIlroy, but now they will be the only thing spoken about for the rest of the golf season. Rory has two Major championships at a younger age than was Tiger when he had two. I assume the question on ESPN will be 'Is there a better chance at Tiger catching Jack Nicklaus in Major victories or Rory catching Tiger (or heaven forbid Jack)?'
1. Men's Olympic Basketball Semis/Finals
Gold or bust. That was the scenario for the United States once again this Olympics as it has been for at least my entire life, if not more. 2012 marked the 40 year anniversary for one of the darkest, most controversial moments in American Olympic history and it marked the 20 year anniversary of the most dominant team in Olympic history. There has never really been an in between option for our men's Olympic basketball teams.
On Friday, Spain outlasted a sluggish start to upend Russia to move into the gold medal game. There they would meet the winner of the U.S. vs. Argentina game. For the most part the first half of that game was closely contested with the Americans threatening to break away, but being thwarted. The second half is where the Americans finally put away pesky Argentina once and for all. They outscored Argentina by 19 points and cruised into Sunday's gold medal game.
Spain is no slouch, led by Pau Gasol, Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka, they have a true NBA front line. As the game began, it was the 3 point shooting of Juan Carlos Navarro and the rest of Spain that caught the U.S. off guard. They made seven 3 point baskets in the first half alone and trailed mighty U.S. by just a single point at halftime. Outside of the barrage of 3's by Spain, the referees were the second most talked about item. There were 33 total fouls called in the first 20 minutes of play. Spain's coaching staff made an egregious error by leaving Marc Gasol on the court with three fouls and he picked up his fourth in the second quarter and didn't return until early in the 4th quarter.
Spain deserves credit, though, as even when that time came around the game was still close. Because of the proficiency from behind the arc, the American defense was stretched out and Pau Gasol took advantage in the second half. He scored with ease and kept Spain within arms reach until midway through the 4th quarter. That is where the overall depth of the American squad finally proved too much for Spain. Kevin Durant led all scorers with 30 points and LeBron James came up with a timely dunk and three point basket late to seal the gold medal. While it wasn't by blowout fashion a la 1992, the gold is all the same for the 2012 version.
The other player that had a really bad weekend was Miami Dolphins receiver Chad Johnson. Arrested on a domestic abuse charge, he was released by the team late Sunday night. New (old) name, same old dumb ass. What little fantasy value Chad Johnson had, is officially gone now and it will be interesting to see if his career is now over. So much for that Hall of Fame jacket Chad.
As for what you should have watched this weekend:
6. St. Louis Rams at Indianapolis Colts
Peyton who? It looks like Andrew Luck might have a future in football. He looked pretty damn good against an obviously flawed Rams team, but I won't let that dampen his first professional game. Luck finished 10/16 for 188 yards and 2 passing touchdowns including a 63 yard score to running back Donald Brown. Both Andrew Luck and Peyton Manning threw a touchdown on their first ever pass for the Colts...just sayin'. For St. Louis, Sam Bradford was efficiently unimpressive as he completed 7 of his 9 attempts, but for a paltry 57 yards. You can't read much into either stat line, but at least Bradford didn't get injured...yet. Andrew Luck will have plenty of great moments this season and he is bound to look like a rookie at times as well, so don't go too overboard just yet.
5. Washington Nationals at Arizona Diamondbacks
In a series that the Arizona Diamondbacks desperately needed to win, they entered Sunday hoping for a big start from rookie Patrick Corbin just to avoid being swept away. Stephen Strasburg dominated Arizona on Friday night and a 5 run fifth inning by the Nationals sunk them Saturday night. Corbin struck out 7 Nationals over seven very effective innings as Arizona ran away from Washington to salvage the final game of the series. The loss broke the Nationals 8 game winning streak, but they still hold a 4 game lead in the N.L. East. The Diamondbacks are five games out and in third place in the N.L. West.
4. Oakland Athletics at Chicago White Sox
This series had almost everything you could ask for in a series. A walk off win, some bad blood, a dominant pitching performance and a player popping his shoulder in after dislocating it and the getting the go ahead hit a half inning later....say what? Let's slow down and roll back the clock to Friday night. The Athletics jumped out to a 3-0 lead, but three solo home runs later the game was tied at 3 in the bottom of the ninth. That's where Jordan Danks hit his 1st career home run, a game winner for the White Sox. Also that night both Yoenes Cespedes and then later A.J. Pierzynksi were hit by pitches. Cespedes got hit a bit high, but just took his base like a professional. Pierzynski who had homered earlier felt the need to stare down Brandon McCarthy the whole way down to 1st like the douche he is. Sunday saw Chicago starter Chris Sale strike out 11 over 6.2 innings as he helped Chicago cruise to victory. In between the two White Sox victories, Brandon Inge became a cult hero in Oakland Saturday night. After blowing a 6-2 lead the Athletics and White Sox were tied at 6 in the bottom of the seventh. A hot shot down to 3rd was snagged by Inge who dislocated his shoulder on the dive. He then called time and popped it back into place and stayed in the game. The White Sox took the lead, but the inning ended on a double play started by Inge. He then came up in the top of the 8th after Oakland had rallied to tie it at 7 and hit the go ahead single as the Athletics held on to win 9-7. Although he'll probably end up on the DL, I don't think anyone in Oakland will forget that effort for a long time.
3. Detroit Tigers at Texas Rangers
Detroit must have felt really good about their chances in this series after storming into Texas and taking game one behind a stellar effort from Max Scherzer and a big home run from Prince Fielder. With Justin Verlander on the mound, the Tigers had a prime opportunity to take the series and look for a sweep. Verlander did his part with 7 strong innings, but he was matched pitch for pitch (and then some) by Derek Holland. The game was ended by rookie sensation Mike Olt who singled with two outs in the ninth after a lengthy at bat. Sunday saw Yu Darvish continue his trend of pitching just well enough to get a win behind the powerful offense of the Rangers. He threw 120 pitches over 6.2 innings giving up 6 hits, 5 walks and struck out 8 batters, but managed to only give up 3 runs. Josh Hamilton hit a home run and the Rangers took advantage of some sloppy Detroit defense to pull away and take the series. The Tigers lost a game in the standings to the White Sox this weekend while the Rangers gained a game on both the Athletics and Angles who each lost their respective series.
2. PGA Championship
There's nothing like a crowded leader board on the back nine of a Major Championship in golf. Rory McIlroy was having none of that this weekend. After John Daly enthralled us on Thursday, he fell out of it with a bad Friday. Adam Scott suffered the same fate with a poor Friday and couldn't get things rolling on the weekend. Tiger Woods played very consistently on Friday and actually held the lead going into the weekend. In years past the tournament would have been over and Tiger would have run away with it. Well the winner won by a PGA Championship record 8 strokes, but it wasn't Tiger. Just like he did at the U.S. Open last year, Rory McIlroy looked like Tiger Woods of a decade ago. Once he got rolling, he didn't stop. He showed no mercy for his competitors and matched his 8 stroke victory from his only other Major victory.
The comparisons had already started between Woods and McIlroy, but now they will be the only thing spoken about for the rest of the golf season. Rory has two Major championships at a younger age than was Tiger when he had two. I assume the question on ESPN will be 'Is there a better chance at Tiger catching Jack Nicklaus in Major victories or Rory catching Tiger (or heaven forbid Jack)?'
1. Men's Olympic Basketball Semis/Finals
Gold or bust. That was the scenario for the United States once again this Olympics as it has been for at least my entire life, if not more. 2012 marked the 40 year anniversary for one of the darkest, most controversial moments in American Olympic history and it marked the 20 year anniversary of the most dominant team in Olympic history. There has never really been an in between option for our men's Olympic basketball teams.
On Friday, Spain outlasted a sluggish start to upend Russia to move into the gold medal game. There they would meet the winner of the U.S. vs. Argentina game. For the most part the first half of that game was closely contested with the Americans threatening to break away, but being thwarted. The second half is where the Americans finally put away pesky Argentina once and for all. They outscored Argentina by 19 points and cruised into Sunday's gold medal game.
Spain is no slouch, led by Pau Gasol, Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka, they have a true NBA front line. As the game began, it was the 3 point shooting of Juan Carlos Navarro and the rest of Spain that caught the U.S. off guard. They made seven 3 point baskets in the first half alone and trailed mighty U.S. by just a single point at halftime. Outside of the barrage of 3's by Spain, the referees were the second most talked about item. There were 33 total fouls called in the first 20 minutes of play. Spain's coaching staff made an egregious error by leaving Marc Gasol on the court with three fouls and he picked up his fourth in the second quarter and didn't return until early in the 4th quarter.
Spain deserves credit, though, as even when that time came around the game was still close. Because of the proficiency from behind the arc, the American defense was stretched out and Pau Gasol took advantage in the second half. He scored with ease and kept Spain within arms reach until midway through the 4th quarter. That is where the overall depth of the American squad finally proved too much for Spain. Kevin Durant led all scorers with 30 points and LeBron James came up with a timely dunk and three point basket late to seal the gold medal. While it wasn't by blowout fashion a la 1992, the gold is all the same for the 2012 version.
Friday, August 10, 2012
Pocket Pair 8/10/12: Weekend Viewing Guide
With the Olympics all but over, it is time to shift focus to the playoff races that are heating up in baseball and to the start of the NFL season. August is about surviving to the stretch run for baseball teams, staying healthy for football teams and doing your fantasy football drafts for fans.
I am about 2 weeks away to draft week where my 3 leagues will get set. In the meantime here is what will pass the time this weekend while you are doing your draft prep.
6. St. Louis Rams at Indianapolis Colts
Last night we all got to witness the start of the RGIII era in Washington. It was rather successful, but in Indianapolis the #1 draft pick is ready to start making headlines of his own. Andrew Luck makes his debut as Colts fans hope they have struck pay dirt once again after more than a decade of excellence with Peyton Manning under center. In St. Louis, the Rams are only two years removed from taking Sam Bradford 1st overall. Things started off okay, but he and the entire team regressed greatly through a myriad of injuries and bad play. Bradford will look to begin his path back to respectability this weekend.
5. Washington Nationals at Arizona Diamondbacks
Over the last month it seems as though nobody has been willing to take control in the N.L. West. The Dodgers, Giants and Diamondbacks have all been hovering just over .500 in the last 30 days and it doesn't get any easier for Arizona this weekend. The Washington Nationals have the best record in baseball and will start the series with Stephen Strasburg on the mound. All eyes have been on Washington brass as they have yet to formally announce their plans with Strasburg, but he sits at 127.1 innings pitched so he should be within his final 8 starts or so this season.
4. Oakland Athletics at Chicago White Sox
Even though they have cooled off as of late, the Athletics stellar play in July have put them squarely in the middle of a playoff race for the first time since 2006 when they went to the ALCS. After this series the Athletics play 13 of 16 games against teams already with October vacation plans. The White Sox have alternated streaks of dominance with streaks of ineptitude in the second half. They followed a five game losing streak with a five game winning streak and after winning five of six they have lost their last two heading into this weekend. Opening day starter Brandon McCarthy returns from the DL (again) to start the series for Oakland while Chris Sale brings his 13-3 record into the finale for Chicago.
3. Detroit Tigers at Texas Rangers
Speaking of streaky, the Detroit Tigers cannot decide whether they are really good or really average. After winning 8 of 10 to start the 2nd half the Tigers lost 6 of 8 only to win their next 6. Of course after losing yesterday they are now bringing a two game losing streak into Texas who are having issues of their own. Even with better play of late the Rangers are only 12-11 since the All Star Break. Now their next seven games are against Detroit and the New York Yankees so more mediocrity seems inevitable. Both Justin Verlander and Yu Darvish make appearances. but unfortunately for fans not against each other.
2. PGA Championship
The final Major in the PGA takes place this weekend at picturesque Kiawah Island in South Carolina. After the 1st day the leader board has some interesting names that should attract viewers of all sorts. Rory McIlroy checks in one stroke off the lead. Adam Scott has regrouped from disaster and is two off the lead. Tiger Woods is floating around only three back. But the news of the day has to be John Daly who posted a -4 par score to sit only two strokes back as well. It must have been his pants:
1. Men's Olympic Basketball Semis/Finals
Starting this morning the gold medal will be decided in the marquee event for fans in the United States. Spain and Russia meet in the appetizer with the United States and Argentina meeting for the third time in three weeks. Save for the 3rd quarter of the second meeting the United States has only outscored Argentina by 9 points in seven quarters of play. Of course they blew the doors off of Argentina by 25 in that 3rd quarter. Sunday will bring the gold medal game and all expectations are that the United States will win that, but they have looked vulnerable as much as dominant at times in London.
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If you need me this weekend I'll be taking our first year players from my baseball team through the Cinnamon Challenge at our annual team party. Last year went like this for the Falls Church News Hounds....enjoy:
I am about 2 weeks away to draft week where my 3 leagues will get set. In the meantime here is what will pass the time this weekend while you are doing your draft prep.
6. St. Louis Rams at Indianapolis Colts
Last night we all got to witness the start of the RGIII era in Washington. It was rather successful, but in Indianapolis the #1 draft pick is ready to start making headlines of his own. Andrew Luck makes his debut as Colts fans hope they have struck pay dirt once again after more than a decade of excellence with Peyton Manning under center. In St. Louis, the Rams are only two years removed from taking Sam Bradford 1st overall. Things started off okay, but he and the entire team regressed greatly through a myriad of injuries and bad play. Bradford will look to begin his path back to respectability this weekend.
5. Washington Nationals at Arizona Diamondbacks
Over the last month it seems as though nobody has been willing to take control in the N.L. West. The Dodgers, Giants and Diamondbacks have all been hovering just over .500 in the last 30 days and it doesn't get any easier for Arizona this weekend. The Washington Nationals have the best record in baseball and will start the series with Stephen Strasburg on the mound. All eyes have been on Washington brass as they have yet to formally announce their plans with Strasburg, but he sits at 127.1 innings pitched so he should be within his final 8 starts or so this season.
4. Oakland Athletics at Chicago White Sox
Even though they have cooled off as of late, the Athletics stellar play in July have put them squarely in the middle of a playoff race for the first time since 2006 when they went to the ALCS. After this series the Athletics play 13 of 16 games against teams already with October vacation plans. The White Sox have alternated streaks of dominance with streaks of ineptitude in the second half. They followed a five game losing streak with a five game winning streak and after winning five of six they have lost their last two heading into this weekend. Opening day starter Brandon McCarthy returns from the DL (again) to start the series for Oakland while Chris Sale brings his 13-3 record into the finale for Chicago.
3. Detroit Tigers at Texas Rangers
Speaking of streaky, the Detroit Tigers cannot decide whether they are really good or really average. After winning 8 of 10 to start the 2nd half the Tigers lost 6 of 8 only to win their next 6. Of course after losing yesterday they are now bringing a two game losing streak into Texas who are having issues of their own. Even with better play of late the Rangers are only 12-11 since the All Star Break. Now their next seven games are against Detroit and the New York Yankees so more mediocrity seems inevitable. Both Justin Verlander and Yu Darvish make appearances. but unfortunately for fans not against each other.
2. PGA Championship
The final Major in the PGA takes place this weekend at picturesque Kiawah Island in South Carolina. After the 1st day the leader board has some interesting names that should attract viewers of all sorts. Rory McIlroy checks in one stroke off the lead. Adam Scott has regrouped from disaster and is two off the lead. Tiger Woods is floating around only three back. But the news of the day has to be John Daly who posted a -4 par score to sit only two strokes back as well. It must have been his pants:
1. Men's Olympic Basketball Semis/Finals
Starting this morning the gold medal will be decided in the marquee event for fans in the United States. Spain and Russia meet in the appetizer with the United States and Argentina meeting for the third time in three weeks. Save for the 3rd quarter of the second meeting the United States has only outscored Argentina by 9 points in seven quarters of play. Of course they blew the doors off of Argentina by 25 in that 3rd quarter. Sunday will bring the gold medal game and all expectations are that the United States will win that, but they have looked vulnerable as much as dominant at times in London.
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If you need me this weekend I'll be taking our first year players from my baseball team through the Cinnamon Challenge at our annual team party. Last year went like this for the Falls Church News Hounds....enjoy:
Wednesday, August 8, 2012
Denzel Washington and 2012 Fantasy Football
Last season I used Clint Eastwood as my muse for my fantasy football preview: Feel free to read it here. I had some hits and I had some misses (yeah Chad Ochocinco did not work out), but at least I entertained myself.
I have always enjoyed Denzel Washington movies, but just like my prognostication abilities, he has had his share of flops along with supreme, award winning performances. He has the rare ability to portray both the hero and the villain and be believed by audiences in either role. That's why he does it for me. I'm am glad he doesn't get typecast into one character that he just rehashes with a different plot. You never know what you will get when you tune in and that's why you keep going back.
It's just like fantasy football (or sports in general), if the story lines were the same year in and year out, we'd get bored and stop watching. If you knew that the Washington Nationals would have the best record in MLB on August 8th, raise your hand. If you knew that the Cincinnati Bengals would make the playoffs with Andy Dalton at the helm last season raise your hand. We don't know and we like it that way.
Here are my thoughts on the upcoming season thanks to Denzel Washington and his fantastic career.
Unstoppable
This movie was about a runaway train and the one team that best resembled that last season was the Green Bay Packers. Sure they were tripped up in the playoffs, but fantasy football owners could care less about that. During the regular season the Packers led the NFL with 70 all purpose touchdowns. To put that in perspective the St. Louis Rams were dead last with only 18 touchdowns. They were probably a bit too pass heavy which hurt them greatly in the playoffs and maybe, just maybe, we'll see Green Bay scale back their aerial assault and try to work in a running game.
That might be a problem because I don't see an every down running back on their current roster. Their projected starter, James Starks is currently the 37th fantasy running back in drafts. There are only 32 teams in the NFL. Case closed. I guess nobody expects the Packers to overreact to their playoff failure and prepare themselves for the playoffs by running. Aaron Rodgers will once again be a fantasy monster and he better for your sake as you'll have to spend a top 5 pick to acquire him. Anything less than that and you'll lose his value in a very deep position in the NFL. I'm not a fan of using a pick that high on a quarterback, because there is usually better value later on in your draft. The wild card on this team (outside of Starks) is Jermichael Finley who I have lauded for years only to be letdown. He had a good year last year, but I know he can elevate his game to a Rob Gronkowski level with Rodgers throwing to him. The question is will this be the year?
The Book of Eli
I think we all should be subscribing to The Book of Eli now. After years of being ignored, Eli Manning finally had his most consistent passing year (which is still a bit inconsistent) and is now being treated like an elite passer. Not to mention he capped his year off with a second Super Bowl victory, the stars seem to be aligning for him to wriggle out of the shadow of his older brother once and for all.
Gone is the notion of the Giants being a run first (and second) team. Gone is the heavy footed, waste of space, Brandon Jacobs. With the emergence of both Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz as speedy, elite wide receivers, New York shifted its focus to keep up with the changing times in the NFL. They are now pass happy and use the running game as a change of pace. The Giants had 17 rushing touchdowns last season and their passing game still was very productive with 29 scores. I do not see any way that New York will score 17 times this season on the ground. If you take 5 of those scores from running to passing Eli Manning vaults to a top 5 fantasy quarterback.
I'll also play the role of devil's advocate. Hakeem Nicks is already recovering from an injury. Maybe Victor Cruz was a flash in the pan. Without the running game balance maybe the Giants get out of whack. Maybe Eli returns to his interception happy ways when he had 25 in 2010. Of course I pegged the Giants as the team most likely to implode last year so maybe I am just biased against them.
Deja Vu
Let me tell about two teams who handle their off season in two completely different ways. The Washington Redskins have been dubbed the 'winners of the off season' almost every year since Dan Snyder took over. The New England Patriots are usually very quiet and refuse to make many waves with free agent signings and selling off of their draft picks. In fact, New England is famous for trading down to acquire more draft picks and cutting their players a year or two before they get too old. Look at how they are treating Wes Welker. They are not about to sink a ton of money into a 31 year old slot receiver. They brought in Brandon Lloyd to supplant him in the near future. They just reload year in and year out...the right way.
The Redskins have to make the big splash. The constantly mortgage their future to get the biggest off season prize. Whether is was Bruce Smith, Deion Sanders, Albert Haynesworth or now (via draft) Robert Griffin III. As a Redskins fan, I am drooling over RGIII, but I know there is no depth on this team. The offensive line is already in shambles with their only asset 1 failed drug test away from being out of the NFL. They couldn't add any more talent because they were caught 'cheating' by the NFL when they circumvented the lack of a salary cap and exiled some bad contracts. They traded away 3 draft picks for RGIII including a 2nd rounder this year and their next two 1st round picks. Where will the help come from? RGIII won't be of much use in a full body cast.
The Patriots are always the deepest team in the NFL. They plug in backups at every position and still succeed. Lose Tom Brady in game one? No problem...still 10-6. Lose a roster full of defensive backs? No problem, throw in a wide receiver...still win the AFC East. Yes they haven't won a Super Bowl since waaaaay back in 2005 but they have gone twice since and I'd take that if I were a fan. How does this affect us fantasy owners? Simple, when was the last time anybody on Washington was relevant for fantasy owners? Clinton Portis in 2009? How about for New England...Tom Brady, Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, Brandon Lloyd and now they'll plug in Stevan Ridley at running back and he'll probably be more than successful. Like Deja Vu all over again.
Man on Fire
Who is the angriest person in the NFL? Who saw their head coach suspended for the year? Who had to fight tooth and nail to get a new long term contract after practically saving his franchise? Drew Brees that's who. Coming off of one of the greatest single season statistical seasons for a quarterback, Drew Brees has been put through the wringer this off season and it will be interesting to see how he produces. He also has to face the curse of hosting the Super Bowl this season. Remember how well that worked out for Dallas two years ago? There has been plenty of turmoil surrounding this team and I can easily see this team cracking if this go bad early. An injury here and bad break there (God forbid they lose to the Redskins at home to start the season) and the losses could pile up.
Drew Brees is the consummate on field general, but it has always been Sean Payton that was the straw that stirred the proverbial drink in New Orleans. Without him around the team this year I expect some more inconsistencies. The 46/14 TD/INT split for Brees might slip to 38/17. Not drastic, but enough to drop him down a notch. The wide receiver position in New Orleans has always been a tough one for fantasy owners. Sure they throw the ball a ton, but the Saints spread the ball around well. Marques Colston is not special, but he's consistent. Lance Moore and Devery Henderson have shown flashes and will have chances again this season with the departure of Robert Meachem. The big break out star of the passing game was tight end Jimmy Graham. He again will look to lead the team in all receiving categories and I don't see why he can't. He has the perfect mix and speed and size and great hands. I have him as my #1 tight end over Gronkowski because I think the Patriots will diversify their offense even more just to mess with us.
The running game is an interesting puzzle. Darren Sproles had 87 rushing attempts and 86 receptions. Pierre Thomas and Mark Ingram combined for 1000 yards and 10 touchdowns on the ground, but I expect Ingram to get a bit more work as the younger player this season. If he can stay healthy I can see 900 yards and 9 touchdowns from him. All three will be drafted and all three will have great games, but I see Pierre Thomas dropping off the radar by season's end.
Remember the Titans
This should be entitled 'Remember Chris Johnson?' or 'Remember Kenny Britt?'. Two of the bigger busts at their respective positions last season, both are looking to rebound. After holding out for a new contract last season, CJ2K came into 2011 a step slow and it cost him dearly. He had a couple of breakout games, but those were against some pretty bad defenses. Kenny Britt started out on fire, but a torn ACL ruined his season. Then he went out and got arrested AGAIN this off season so he is not only facing league penalties, but physical limitations as well.
At quarterback, Jake Locker looks to replace the aging Matt Hasselsuck...err beck this season. He was okay in his brief stint as starter last year and will need to make big strides to make this team relevant to fantasy owners. If he can prove to be a average thrower and keep defenses from crowding the line of scrimmage, not only will his job be easier by handing off to Chris Johnson more, but Johnson could return to elite status in the fantasy world.
It also doesn't hurt that the Titans play in the least talented division in the NFL. While Houston is a contender, both Indianapolis and Jacksonville have major question marks. Four games against them will be good news for a young team trying to find its way. Chris Johnson is the only player worth spending a high draft pick on, but there are others to keep an eye on including Nate Washington and Jared Cook who are both dependent on a good passing game.
He Got Game
The story about a young basketball star with dreams of greatness. Each year the fantasy world is smitten with dreams of rookies being the next greatest thing. I play in a keeper league in addition to a normal redraft league so it is doubly important to decide right away whether to invest in 1st year players or not. I have never been a big fan of drafting any rookies, no matter the position. More than not this will be a sound strategy, but every once in a while you'll miss out on a late round draft pick future stud.
Take A.J. Green for example. He proved to be a very good #2 wide receiver on a fantasy team with the upside of being an elite #1 receiver. I thought Andy Dalton would hinder his rookie numbers, but they worked quite well as a tandem. If they progress, Cincinnati could all of a sudden be full of quality fantasy options.
This season all the talk surround Trent Richardson in Cleveland and the aforementioned RGIII in Washington. The Browns offense expects to be centered around Richardson, but he is already hurting and according to reports scheduled to visit Dr. James Andrews to look as his knee. The Redskins hopes this season and the next decade rest on the right shoulder and sprinters legs of RGIII. He might not be Cam Newton this year, but he should be a viable backup/injury replacement quarterback and a definite must own in keeper leagues.
Outside of those two there are two running backs that will be vying for touches and could emerge as starters sooner rather than later. Doug Martin in Tampa Bay and David Wilson in New York (Giants) are both listed as the backups for their respective team, but both LeGarrette Blount and Ahmad Bradshaw have injury and performance concerns. They could give fantasy owners the best bang for the buck because neither are guaranteed 20+ touches a game, but will certainly be the first option when the starter goes down.
I am not going to endorse Justin Blackmon this season. He seems to be in the mold of Dez Bryant as a talented on the field player and a pain in the ass off the field. He will go way too high to be entrusted in drafting this season. No value for the pick. If you are going to take a flier on a rookie wide receiver I say look in the direction of Brian Quick in St. Louis or Alshon Jefferey in Chicago.
Dare I forget to mention Andrew Luck. He has some talent around him and plays in the weak AFC South, but I think he will be at least a year away from a starter for fantasy owners. Now a keeper league will be different as he will be a must own if you can afford to stash him away for a season.
Fallen
On the other side of the ledger is fantasy heroes of seasons past. Of the projected top 200 fantasy players this year, at least 20 won't be spoken of by seasons end or ever again. It may not be so sudden for everyone, but each year brings a new crop of youngsters looking to take the place of an aging veteran. Ryan Mathews excused LaDanian Tomlinson in San Diego and Andrew Luck has replaced Peyton Manning in Indianapolis. It happens to everyone.
My number one pick for this list is Frank Gore. It will be difficult to watch him decline this year. He was so good to me in 2009, but with Brandon Jacobs, Kendall Hunter and LaMichael James all in line to lessen his workload, Gore will no longer be worthy of anything more than a flex player by mid season. His last 100 yard rushing game was in Week 9 last year as he averaged only 54 yards per game and scored only 3 touchdowns in the 2nd half of the 2011 season. San Francisco has already announced their plans to use the other three backs more and Gore less, so don't say I didn't warn you.
At quarterback I have lost faith in 'Big' Ben Roethlisberger. What made him so good for his first 7 years started taking a toll last season. He is only 30 but his body is that of a 37 year old. He has nursed so many different injuries that I'm not sure he can be elite again. He had only five 2+ touchdown games last year while having four games of 0 touchdowns. That leaves seven games with just a single touchdown pass and that won't cut it nowadays. He is more than due to miss a couple games this season and the Steelers should start grooming a replacement.
The story looks to be the same for Baltimore Ravens wide receive Anquan Boldin. In the final 8 Ravens games, Boldin didn't top 63 yards receiving, scored only one touchdown and missed two games. That's not good. The one saving grace for Boldin is there aren't too many options to replace him. Outside of fellow starter Torrey Smith, only Jacoby Jones looks to take some catches away from him. Of course Ray Rice will get his share of receptions and whoever emerges between Ed Dickson and Dennis Pitta at tight end could be valuable, but this should be the last hurrah for Boldin.
Philadelphia
What to make of the dynasty in the making in eastern Pennsylvania? The Eagles can be so dominating and so lost all in the same game. There is far too much talent to not expect them to excel this season, but questions still exist. Can Michael Vick stay healthy? Is DeSean Jackson done being a head case? Is LeSean McCoy ready to be the best running back in the NFL? Will Andy Reid's head be in it this season?
Let's go down the list: No Michael Vick cannot stay healthy. He will miss a game or two or more and that is a problem for not only his owners, but the owners of all the Eagles. As Vick goes, so goes Jeremy Maclin, Brent Celek and Jackson. At least you won't have to waste a 1st round pick on Vick this season. If he drops in your draft to the 3rd or 4th round he might be worth the trouble.
Yes I believe DeSean Jackson's antics are behind him. He can easily bounce back and prove he's the game breaker we all thought he'd be last year. I certainly hope he learned from his childish mistakes last year and I'm willing to take him as my #2 wide receiver, but not my top one.
LeSean McCoy was asked to run more and catch less last year and that turned him into a fantasy stud. It was the only thing lacking in his game and fantasy owners never thought the Eagles would commit to the run enough, but that was proven wrong. Now as a true dual threat, we know that if you need a 30 carry, 185 yard, 2 touchdown effort (2011) he can do that. If you need an 8 catch, 86 yard, 1 touchdown performance (2010) he can do that too. Now if he happens to combine the two in a week...well draft him with confidence folks.
You have to feel for Andy Reid. He recently lost his eldest son and has already returned to practice. His family issues have been well documented and that along with the normal issues of coaching in Philadelphia for 13 years its amazing he has been able to hold it together. Eventually it has to add up and start to distract him doesn't it? If he is able to guide the Eagles to the playoffs this year, it may be his best coaching effort to date.
The Mighty Quinn
This is where I would have talked about Brady Quinn leading the Cleveland Browns to glory...but he sucks so I'll move on. You missed out Brady...you missed out.
Glory
Perhaps Denzel Washington's preeminent performance of his career (I did not care as much for Training Day) I will now try and pick a couple of guys who are set to break out this year with their own best performance.
At quarterback I'm going back to the well of Josh Freeman. Sure many thought the same last season, but apparently the player/coach dynamic under Raheem Morris was how do you say...not good. With new weapons including Vincent Jackson, Dallas Clark and Doug Martin he is a prime candidate for a bounce back season. Will he be good enough to crack the top 10 in the same mold of Matthew Stafford last season...hmmm...maybe. He needs to continue to add the element of running into his bag of tricks as he scored four rushing touchdowns in 2011...up that to seven and now we're talking.
A nice late round back could be Donald Brown in Indianapolis. Even though the Colts are expected to struggle, they still will run the ball and Brown has been elevated to the starter. There is no way that Indianapolis will have Andrew Luck throw the ball 40 times a game. They should be much more balanced than they ever were under Peyton Manning. Brown had 645 yards rushing and five touchdowns in only 12 games in a completely lost season in 2011 so why not expect a 900 yard, 7 touchdown effort this year? That wouldn't be too shabby for somebody being drafted as the 38th overall running back currently.
Wide receiver is the most difficult position to guess a breakout star in my opinion because almost anyone can do it with the right opportunity. I would have need 50 guesses at least for Victor Cruz so here goes nothing. I'm picking Denarius Moore from the Oakland Raiders. Why not? I think Carson Palmer still has a couple of bullets left in his gun and with young, emerging wide receivers in Moore and Darrius Heyward-Bey its only a matter of time for the Raiders to show some promise. When on the field, Moore made plays and that is all you can ask from a wide receiver. He scored 5 touchdowns on only 33 receptions and averaged nearly 19 yards a catch. The skill is there, the opportunity is there and a full year of Palmer is there. If he stays healthy he can hit 1,000 yards and 8 touchdowns easy.
I have always enjoyed Denzel Washington movies, but just like my prognostication abilities, he has had his share of flops along with supreme, award winning performances. He has the rare ability to portray both the hero and the villain and be believed by audiences in either role. That's why he does it for me. I'm am glad he doesn't get typecast into one character that he just rehashes with a different plot. You never know what you will get when you tune in and that's why you keep going back.
It's just like fantasy football (or sports in general), if the story lines were the same year in and year out, we'd get bored and stop watching. If you knew that the Washington Nationals would have the best record in MLB on August 8th, raise your hand. If you knew that the Cincinnati Bengals would make the playoffs with Andy Dalton at the helm last season raise your hand. We don't know and we like it that way.
Here are my thoughts on the upcoming season thanks to Denzel Washington and his fantastic career.
Unstoppable
This movie was about a runaway train and the one team that best resembled that last season was the Green Bay Packers. Sure they were tripped up in the playoffs, but fantasy football owners could care less about that. During the regular season the Packers led the NFL with 70 all purpose touchdowns. To put that in perspective the St. Louis Rams were dead last with only 18 touchdowns. They were probably a bit too pass heavy which hurt them greatly in the playoffs and maybe, just maybe, we'll see Green Bay scale back their aerial assault and try to work in a running game.
That might be a problem because I don't see an every down running back on their current roster. Their projected starter, James Starks is currently the 37th fantasy running back in drafts. There are only 32 teams in the NFL. Case closed. I guess nobody expects the Packers to overreact to their playoff failure and prepare themselves for the playoffs by running. Aaron Rodgers will once again be a fantasy monster and he better for your sake as you'll have to spend a top 5 pick to acquire him. Anything less than that and you'll lose his value in a very deep position in the NFL. I'm not a fan of using a pick that high on a quarterback, because there is usually better value later on in your draft. The wild card on this team (outside of Starks) is Jermichael Finley who I have lauded for years only to be letdown. He had a good year last year, but I know he can elevate his game to a Rob Gronkowski level with Rodgers throwing to him. The question is will this be the year?
The Book of Eli
I think we all should be subscribing to The Book of Eli now. After years of being ignored, Eli Manning finally had his most consistent passing year (which is still a bit inconsistent) and is now being treated like an elite passer. Not to mention he capped his year off with a second Super Bowl victory, the stars seem to be aligning for him to wriggle out of the shadow of his older brother once and for all.
Gone is the notion of the Giants being a run first (and second) team. Gone is the heavy footed, waste of space, Brandon Jacobs. With the emergence of both Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz as speedy, elite wide receivers, New York shifted its focus to keep up with the changing times in the NFL. They are now pass happy and use the running game as a change of pace. The Giants had 17 rushing touchdowns last season and their passing game still was very productive with 29 scores. I do not see any way that New York will score 17 times this season on the ground. If you take 5 of those scores from running to passing Eli Manning vaults to a top 5 fantasy quarterback.
I'll also play the role of devil's advocate. Hakeem Nicks is already recovering from an injury. Maybe Victor Cruz was a flash in the pan. Without the running game balance maybe the Giants get out of whack. Maybe Eli returns to his interception happy ways when he had 25 in 2010. Of course I pegged the Giants as the team most likely to implode last year so maybe I am just biased against them.
Deja Vu
Let me tell about two teams who handle their off season in two completely different ways. The Washington Redskins have been dubbed the 'winners of the off season' almost every year since Dan Snyder took over. The New England Patriots are usually very quiet and refuse to make many waves with free agent signings and selling off of their draft picks. In fact, New England is famous for trading down to acquire more draft picks and cutting their players a year or two before they get too old. Look at how they are treating Wes Welker. They are not about to sink a ton of money into a 31 year old slot receiver. They brought in Brandon Lloyd to supplant him in the near future. They just reload year in and year out...the right way.
The Redskins have to make the big splash. The constantly mortgage their future to get the biggest off season prize. Whether is was Bruce Smith, Deion Sanders, Albert Haynesworth or now (via draft) Robert Griffin III. As a Redskins fan, I am drooling over RGIII, but I know there is no depth on this team. The offensive line is already in shambles with their only asset 1 failed drug test away from being out of the NFL. They couldn't add any more talent because they were caught 'cheating' by the NFL when they circumvented the lack of a salary cap and exiled some bad contracts. They traded away 3 draft picks for RGIII including a 2nd rounder this year and their next two 1st round picks. Where will the help come from? RGIII won't be of much use in a full body cast.
The Patriots are always the deepest team in the NFL. They plug in backups at every position and still succeed. Lose Tom Brady in game one? No problem...still 10-6. Lose a roster full of defensive backs? No problem, throw in a wide receiver...still win the AFC East. Yes they haven't won a Super Bowl since waaaaay back in 2005 but they have gone twice since and I'd take that if I were a fan. How does this affect us fantasy owners? Simple, when was the last time anybody on Washington was relevant for fantasy owners? Clinton Portis in 2009? How about for New England...Tom Brady, Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, Brandon Lloyd and now they'll plug in Stevan Ridley at running back and he'll probably be more than successful. Like Deja Vu all over again.
Man on Fire
Who is the angriest person in the NFL? Who saw their head coach suspended for the year? Who had to fight tooth and nail to get a new long term contract after practically saving his franchise? Drew Brees that's who. Coming off of one of the greatest single season statistical seasons for a quarterback, Drew Brees has been put through the wringer this off season and it will be interesting to see how he produces. He also has to face the curse of hosting the Super Bowl this season. Remember how well that worked out for Dallas two years ago? There has been plenty of turmoil surrounding this team and I can easily see this team cracking if this go bad early. An injury here and bad break there (God forbid they lose to the Redskins at home to start the season) and the losses could pile up.
Drew Brees is the consummate on field general, but it has always been Sean Payton that was the straw that stirred the proverbial drink in New Orleans. Without him around the team this year I expect some more inconsistencies. The 46/14 TD/INT split for Brees might slip to 38/17. Not drastic, but enough to drop him down a notch. The wide receiver position in New Orleans has always been a tough one for fantasy owners. Sure they throw the ball a ton, but the Saints spread the ball around well. Marques Colston is not special, but he's consistent. Lance Moore and Devery Henderson have shown flashes and will have chances again this season with the departure of Robert Meachem. The big break out star of the passing game was tight end Jimmy Graham. He again will look to lead the team in all receiving categories and I don't see why he can't. He has the perfect mix and speed and size and great hands. I have him as my #1 tight end over Gronkowski because I think the Patriots will diversify their offense even more just to mess with us.
The running game is an interesting puzzle. Darren Sproles had 87 rushing attempts and 86 receptions. Pierre Thomas and Mark Ingram combined for 1000 yards and 10 touchdowns on the ground, but I expect Ingram to get a bit more work as the younger player this season. If he can stay healthy I can see 900 yards and 9 touchdowns from him. All three will be drafted and all three will have great games, but I see Pierre Thomas dropping off the radar by season's end.
Remember the Titans
This should be entitled 'Remember Chris Johnson?' or 'Remember Kenny Britt?'. Two of the bigger busts at their respective positions last season, both are looking to rebound. After holding out for a new contract last season, CJ2K came into 2011 a step slow and it cost him dearly. He had a couple of breakout games, but those were against some pretty bad defenses. Kenny Britt started out on fire, but a torn ACL ruined his season. Then he went out and got arrested AGAIN this off season so he is not only facing league penalties, but physical limitations as well.
At quarterback, Jake Locker looks to replace the aging Matt Hassel
It also doesn't hurt that the Titans play in the least talented division in the NFL. While Houston is a contender, both Indianapolis and Jacksonville have major question marks. Four games against them will be good news for a young team trying to find its way. Chris Johnson is the only player worth spending a high draft pick on, but there are others to keep an eye on including Nate Washington and Jared Cook who are both dependent on a good passing game.
He Got Game
The story about a young basketball star with dreams of greatness. Each year the fantasy world is smitten with dreams of rookies being the next greatest thing. I play in a keeper league in addition to a normal redraft league so it is doubly important to decide right away whether to invest in 1st year players or not. I have never been a big fan of drafting any rookies, no matter the position. More than not this will be a sound strategy, but every once in a while you'll miss out on a late round draft pick future stud.
Take A.J. Green for example. He proved to be a very good #2 wide receiver on a fantasy team with the upside of being an elite #1 receiver. I thought Andy Dalton would hinder his rookie numbers, but they worked quite well as a tandem. If they progress, Cincinnati could all of a sudden be full of quality fantasy options.
This season all the talk surround Trent Richardson in Cleveland and the aforementioned RGIII in Washington. The Browns offense expects to be centered around Richardson, but he is already hurting and according to reports scheduled to visit Dr. James Andrews to look as his knee. The Redskins hopes this season and the next decade rest on the right shoulder and sprinters legs of RGIII. He might not be Cam Newton this year, but he should be a viable backup/injury replacement quarterback and a definite must own in keeper leagues.
Outside of those two there are two running backs that will be vying for touches and could emerge as starters sooner rather than later. Doug Martin in Tampa Bay and David Wilson in New York (Giants) are both listed as the backups for their respective team, but both LeGarrette Blount and Ahmad Bradshaw have injury and performance concerns. They could give fantasy owners the best bang for the buck because neither are guaranteed 20+ touches a game, but will certainly be the first option when the starter goes down.
I am not going to endorse Justin Blackmon this season. He seems to be in the mold of Dez Bryant as a talented on the field player and a pain in the ass off the field. He will go way too high to be entrusted in drafting this season. No value for the pick. If you are going to take a flier on a rookie wide receiver I say look in the direction of Brian Quick in St. Louis or Alshon Jefferey in Chicago.
Dare I forget to mention Andrew Luck. He has some talent around him and plays in the weak AFC South, but I think he will be at least a year away from a starter for fantasy owners. Now a keeper league will be different as he will be a must own if you can afford to stash him away for a season.
Fallen
On the other side of the ledger is fantasy heroes of seasons past. Of the projected top 200 fantasy players this year, at least 20 won't be spoken of by seasons end or ever again. It may not be so sudden for everyone, but each year brings a new crop of youngsters looking to take the place of an aging veteran. Ryan Mathews excused LaDanian Tomlinson in San Diego and Andrew Luck has replaced Peyton Manning in Indianapolis. It happens to everyone.
My number one pick for this list is Frank Gore. It will be difficult to watch him decline this year. He was so good to me in 2009, but with Brandon Jacobs, Kendall Hunter and LaMichael James all in line to lessen his workload, Gore will no longer be worthy of anything more than a flex player by mid season. His last 100 yard rushing game was in Week 9 last year as he averaged only 54 yards per game and scored only 3 touchdowns in the 2nd half of the 2011 season. San Francisco has already announced their plans to use the other three backs more and Gore less, so don't say I didn't warn you.
At quarterback I have lost faith in 'Big' Ben Roethlisberger. What made him so good for his first 7 years started taking a toll last season. He is only 30 but his body is that of a 37 year old. He has nursed so many different injuries that I'm not sure he can be elite again. He had only five 2+ touchdown games last year while having four games of 0 touchdowns. That leaves seven games with just a single touchdown pass and that won't cut it nowadays. He is more than due to miss a couple games this season and the Steelers should start grooming a replacement.
The story looks to be the same for Baltimore Ravens wide receive Anquan Boldin. In the final 8 Ravens games, Boldin didn't top 63 yards receiving, scored only one touchdown and missed two games. That's not good. The one saving grace for Boldin is there aren't too many options to replace him. Outside of fellow starter Torrey Smith, only Jacoby Jones looks to take some catches away from him. Of course Ray Rice will get his share of receptions and whoever emerges between Ed Dickson and Dennis Pitta at tight end could be valuable, but this should be the last hurrah for Boldin.
Philadelphia
What to make of the dynasty in the making in eastern Pennsylvania? The Eagles can be so dominating and so lost all in the same game. There is far too much talent to not expect them to excel this season, but questions still exist. Can Michael Vick stay healthy? Is DeSean Jackson done being a head case? Is LeSean McCoy ready to be the best running back in the NFL? Will Andy Reid's head be in it this season?
Let's go down the list: No Michael Vick cannot stay healthy. He will miss a game or two or more and that is a problem for not only his owners, but the owners of all the Eagles. As Vick goes, so goes Jeremy Maclin, Brent Celek and Jackson. At least you won't have to waste a 1st round pick on Vick this season. If he drops in your draft to the 3rd or 4th round he might be worth the trouble.
Yes I believe DeSean Jackson's antics are behind him. He can easily bounce back and prove he's the game breaker we all thought he'd be last year. I certainly hope he learned from his childish mistakes last year and I'm willing to take him as my #2 wide receiver, but not my top one.
LeSean McCoy was asked to run more and catch less last year and that turned him into a fantasy stud. It was the only thing lacking in his game and fantasy owners never thought the Eagles would commit to the run enough, but that was proven wrong. Now as a true dual threat, we know that if you need a 30 carry, 185 yard, 2 touchdown effort (2011) he can do that. If you need an 8 catch, 86 yard, 1 touchdown performance (2010) he can do that too. Now if he happens to combine the two in a week...well draft him with confidence folks.
You have to feel for Andy Reid. He recently lost his eldest son and has already returned to practice. His family issues have been well documented and that along with the normal issues of coaching in Philadelphia for 13 years its amazing he has been able to hold it together. Eventually it has to add up and start to distract him doesn't it? If he is able to guide the Eagles to the playoffs this year, it may be his best coaching effort to date.
The Mighty Quinn
This is where I would have talked about Brady Quinn leading the Cleveland Browns to glory...but he sucks so I'll move on. You missed out Brady...you missed out.
Glory
Perhaps Denzel Washington's preeminent performance of his career (I did not care as much for Training Day) I will now try and pick a couple of guys who are set to break out this year with their own best performance.
At quarterback I'm going back to the well of Josh Freeman. Sure many thought the same last season, but apparently the player/coach dynamic under Raheem Morris was how do you say...not good. With new weapons including Vincent Jackson, Dallas Clark and Doug Martin he is a prime candidate for a bounce back season. Will he be good enough to crack the top 10 in the same mold of Matthew Stafford last season...hmmm...maybe. He needs to continue to add the element of running into his bag of tricks as he scored four rushing touchdowns in 2011...up that to seven and now we're talking.
A nice late round back could be Donald Brown in Indianapolis. Even though the Colts are expected to struggle, they still will run the ball and Brown has been elevated to the starter. There is no way that Indianapolis will have Andrew Luck throw the ball 40 times a game. They should be much more balanced than they ever were under Peyton Manning. Brown had 645 yards rushing and five touchdowns in only 12 games in a completely lost season in 2011 so why not expect a 900 yard, 7 touchdown effort this year? That wouldn't be too shabby for somebody being drafted as the 38th overall running back currently.
Wide receiver is the most difficult position to guess a breakout star in my opinion because almost anyone can do it with the right opportunity. I would have need 50 guesses at least for Victor Cruz so here goes nothing. I'm picking Denarius Moore from the Oakland Raiders. Why not? I think Carson Palmer still has a couple of bullets left in his gun and with young, emerging wide receivers in Moore and Darrius Heyward-Bey its only a matter of time for the Raiders to show some promise. When on the field, Moore made plays and that is all you can ask from a wide receiver. He scored 5 touchdowns on only 33 receptions and averaged nearly 19 yards a catch. The skill is there, the opportunity is there and a full year of Palmer is there. If he stays healthy he can hit 1,000 yards and 8 touchdowns easy.
Monday, August 6, 2012
Pocket Pair 8/6/12
It's a dreary Monday here outside D.C. with overcast clouds a light drizzle and yet its still overbearingly humid. The day will get better and I'm hoping to head downtown tonight with the wife for the Screen on the Green presentation of Psycho. Outdoor Hitchcock..nighttime, shower scene, evil mom...perfect. That would be a great ending to a Monday. As for the last 72 hours...let's look back at the Weekend that was.
5. Hall of Fame Game
I'll be honest, I watched the 1st two series of this game and that was it. I know, I know you're saying 'Jason you were touting that the NFL is back!!'. That's correct, but since I was out and about all day being a good DC tourist I missed the Olympics so that is what I watched. The Saints drove down the field for a touchdown behind Darren Sproles and Mark Ingram which signified the end of the night for Drew Brees. It wasn't that pretty for the Cardinals as Kevin Kolb threw a wounded duck of a pass that got intercepted on his 1st drive. He also bruised/cracked some ribs last night so there's that as well. Full slate of games start on Thursday as everyone in Washington will be glued to see RGIII.
4. Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays
7 runs. That's all that was scored in this series. By both teams. Combined. Each game was a shutout with the Orioles much maligned staff winning the series with two of the shutouts. I guess the old axiom that bad pitching beats horrible hitting is true. Baltimore and Tampa Bay continue their game of leap frog as the Orioles are now a game ahead of the Rays in the standings, but still 6.5 out in the A.L. East and a game out of the Wild Card behind Oakland and Detroit. With the Yankees and Detroit playing each other and the Angels and Athletics playing each other the Rays (vs. Toronto) and Orioles (vs. Seattle) have a chance to make up ground against bad teams.
3. Los Angeles Angels at Chicago White Sox
No worries about a lack of scoring when you involve to really good offenses and no aces are pitching. The White Sox out slugged the Angels in a very competitive series. The Angels are in the middle of a very difficult stretch of games (13 straight against Tampa Bay, Texas, Chicago and Oakland) and are 4-6 in their last 10. Each week I have become more and more of a believer in the White Sox. They can hit with anyone and their pitching has been remarkably better than I thought it would. Chris Sale has had back to back bad starts and that is worrisome as he has entered uncharted territory in innings pitched and I don't know how reliable he'll be down the stretch.
2. Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds
I guess it took Clint Hurdle getting ejected on Saturday night to wake the Pirates up in this series. After dropping the first two games in Cincinnati, Pittsburgh was saved with another stellar outing by Cy Young candidate (favorite even??) A.J. Burnett. The series opened with the Reds shutting out the Pirates behind Mat Latos throwing 7 1/3 innings and hitting a two run home run to help his cause. Saturday saw the drama that comes with a pennant chase as the Reds hit Josh Harrison (without intent it seems), but the home plate umpire felt the need to warn both benches, eliminating the chance for the Pirates to respond if they wanted to. Clint Hurdle (the Pirates manager) took exception and tried to fire his team up by arguing, but they still fell a run short. The lead for the Reds may sit at 4.5 games and they may have the easier schedule on paper, but the Pirates have 32 home games left to the Reds 25 home games so it still may get tight again.
1. The Summer Olympics
It was another great weekend of competition. Michael Phelps stole most of the headlines with him winning gold in his final race and subsequent retirement announcement, but the U.S. as a whole did really well in the numerous swimming events. Andy Murray did what he couldn't do in Wimbledon by winning on his home court against Roger Federer for gold. Track and Field started and Jamaica was the big winners as they swept the 'fastest woman' and 'fastest men' titles in the 100m race. This means Usain Bolt joined American Carl Lewis as the only repeat winner of gold in the 100m in Olympic history. That in itself is impressive. That he has done it rather easily is another feat all into itself. The United States is looking to take gold in women's soccer and beach volleyball and the men's basketball team survived a scare as it inches closer to playing for medals.
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I can't make it through the weekend without mentioning the Washington Nationals can I? They once again dipped into their AAA farm system, the Oakland Athletics, and traded for Kurt Suzuki. As the longest tenured member of my favorite team it was sad to see him go, but his offensive skill level had diminished vastly over the last two years that it just didn't make sense for Oakland to keep paying him $6.5 million a year. They had already acquired a younger, better hitting, not nearly as good defensive catcher in Derek Norris from Washington (in the Gio Gonzalez trade). So why not keep with the plan of shedding salary and getting younger? The Nationals have used about 36 catchers this season and while he may not hit, Kurt Suzuki immediately solidifies the position, gives veteran leadership and will continue to mold the Nationals young pitching staff as he did with countless young pitchers in Oakland.
This is another win/win trade between my two favorite teams. I'm very happy that they continue to shuffle talent back and forth to help each franchise. It's much better than losing players to Boston (oh BTW how's Andrew Bailey doing for you, you Boston douches?) and New York.
World Series 2014 Washington vsOakland San Jose...I can't wait.
5. Hall of Fame Game
I'll be honest, I watched the 1st two series of this game and that was it. I know, I know you're saying 'Jason you were touting that the NFL is back!!'. That's correct, but since I was out and about all day being a good DC tourist I missed the Olympics so that is what I watched. The Saints drove down the field for a touchdown behind Darren Sproles and Mark Ingram which signified the end of the night for Drew Brees. It wasn't that pretty for the Cardinals as Kevin Kolb threw a wounded duck of a pass that got intercepted on his 1st drive. He also bruised/cracked some ribs last night so there's that as well. Full slate of games start on Thursday as everyone in Washington will be glued to see RGIII.
4. Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays
7 runs. That's all that was scored in this series. By both teams. Combined. Each game was a shutout with the Orioles much maligned staff winning the series with two of the shutouts. I guess the old axiom that bad pitching beats horrible hitting is true. Baltimore and Tampa Bay continue their game of leap frog as the Orioles are now a game ahead of the Rays in the standings, but still 6.5 out in the A.L. East and a game out of the Wild Card behind Oakland and Detroit. With the Yankees and Detroit playing each other and the Angels and Athletics playing each other the Rays (vs. Toronto) and Orioles (vs. Seattle) have a chance to make up ground against bad teams.
3. Los Angeles Angels at Chicago White Sox
No worries about a lack of scoring when you involve to really good offenses and no aces are pitching. The White Sox out slugged the Angels in a very competitive series. The Angels are in the middle of a very difficult stretch of games (13 straight against Tampa Bay, Texas, Chicago and Oakland) and are 4-6 in their last 10. Each week I have become more and more of a believer in the White Sox. They can hit with anyone and their pitching has been remarkably better than I thought it would. Chris Sale has had back to back bad starts and that is worrisome as he has entered uncharted territory in innings pitched and I don't know how reliable he'll be down the stretch.
2. Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds
I guess it took Clint Hurdle getting ejected on Saturday night to wake the Pirates up in this series. After dropping the first two games in Cincinnati, Pittsburgh was saved with another stellar outing by Cy Young candidate (favorite even??) A.J. Burnett. The series opened with the Reds shutting out the Pirates behind Mat Latos throwing 7 1/3 innings and hitting a two run home run to help his cause. Saturday saw the drama that comes with a pennant chase as the Reds hit Josh Harrison (without intent it seems), but the home plate umpire felt the need to warn both benches, eliminating the chance for the Pirates to respond if they wanted to. Clint Hurdle (the Pirates manager) took exception and tried to fire his team up by arguing, but they still fell a run short. The lead for the Reds may sit at 4.5 games and they may have the easier schedule on paper, but the Pirates have 32 home games left to the Reds 25 home games so it still may get tight again.
1. The Summer Olympics
It was another great weekend of competition. Michael Phelps stole most of the headlines with him winning gold in his final race and subsequent retirement announcement, but the U.S. as a whole did really well in the numerous swimming events. Andy Murray did what he couldn't do in Wimbledon by winning on his home court against Roger Federer for gold. Track and Field started and Jamaica was the big winners as they swept the 'fastest woman' and 'fastest men' titles in the 100m race. This means Usain Bolt joined American Carl Lewis as the only repeat winner of gold in the 100m in Olympic history. That in itself is impressive. That he has done it rather easily is another feat all into itself. The United States is looking to take gold in women's soccer and beach volleyball and the men's basketball team survived a scare as it inches closer to playing for medals.
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I can't make it through the weekend without mentioning the Washington Nationals can I? They once again dipped into their AAA farm system, the Oakland Athletics, and traded for Kurt Suzuki. As the longest tenured member of my favorite team it was sad to see him go, but his offensive skill level had diminished vastly over the last two years that it just didn't make sense for Oakland to keep paying him $6.5 million a year. They had already acquired a younger, better hitting, not nearly as good defensive catcher in Derek Norris from Washington (in the Gio Gonzalez trade). So why not keep with the plan of shedding salary and getting younger? The Nationals have used about 36 catchers this season and while he may not hit, Kurt Suzuki immediately solidifies the position, gives veteran leadership and will continue to mold the Nationals young pitching staff as he did with countless young pitchers in Oakland.
This is another win/win trade between my two favorite teams. I'm very happy that they continue to shuffle talent back and forth to help each franchise. It's much better than losing players to Boston (oh BTW how's Andrew Bailey doing for you, you Boston douches?) and New York.
World Series 2014 Washington vs
Friday, August 3, 2012
Pocket Pair 8/3/12
The weekend is here, time to kick back relax and enjoy yourself. For those not heading to the beach or on some fantastic vacation, I offer up your weekend viewing guide in the world of sports.
5. Hall of Fame Game
Preseason football is here!! It may not count, but it is football and I know you will watch. This was the only game that was canceled last season during the lockout, but this year you get Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints versus Larry Fitzgerald and the Arizona Cardinals. When it comes to thinking about the Hall of Fame, the Cardinals and Saints are two teams that don't come to mind. Dan Dierdorf was the last player to be inducted from the Cardinals franchise and he retired in 1983. The Saints have had a checkered history and have only seen three players inducted from their franchise. The game is Sunday night so watch the Olympics live on Sunday so that you don't have go back and forth...NFL!!!!!!
4. Baltimore at Tampa Bay
Just when you thought both of these franchises were dead in the water they right the ship. The Orioles have won 3 of 4 including 2 of 3 in New York while the Rays went 6-3 on a very difficult road trip to Baltimore, Los Angeles and Oakland. Each team stands only 6.5 games behind the Yankees after being more the double digits behind just two weeks ago. Do I think either will catch New York? No. In all actuality they have their sights focused on the two Wild Card spots where they are only 1.5 games out. Neither team made any key additions or subtractions at the trade deadline so the Orioles will continue to piece together a pitching staff, while the Rays will try and eke out enough runs to support their pitchers.
3. Los Angeles Angels at Chicago White Sox
After a grueling four game set in the heat of Texas where pitching was optional, the Angels now head to the mid-west to take on first place Chicago. The White Sox have feasted off the Minnesota Twins of late winning 5 of 6 games and also took 2 of 3 from the struggling Texas Rangers. They now begin a nine game home stand with both the Angles and Athletics coming to town. The only downside of this series is the neither Chris Sale nor Jered Weaver are scheduled to pitch as the Angels are pushing back Weaver to line him up against my Athletics next week...screw you Angels, screw you.
2. Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds
A meaningful series for the city of Pittsburgh in August. For the older generations that must just sound right. The Reds are blazing hot (and doing so without Joey Votto) and hold a 3.5 game lead over the Pirates. It's this close because Pittsburgh has yet to play a game against a team over .500 since the All-Star break. Really! Look it up...Milwaukee, Colorado, Miami, Chicago, Houston and Chicago again. Five crappy teams that are a combined 97 games BELOW .500. Yeah that's a cake schedule. Of course Cincinnati has gone 12-1 against very similar, soft, opponents in Milwaukee, Houston, Colorado and San Diego after starting the 2nd half against St. Louis and Arizona. We really don't know if either of these teams are really good, but they are good at beating bad teams.
1. The Summer Olympics
Week one is wrapping up meaning short distance swimming and gymnastics are coming to a close and track & field is getting under way. In between tennis, volleyball, soccer and basketball will start handing out medals as they are all just about finished with group stages. There have been plenty of great moments for the United States, but there have been some disappointments as well...I'm looking at you Ryan Lochte. Outside of the tape delay controversy here in the states, the lack of corporate sponsored fans filling the seats and the badminton scandal the London games have been rather successful. I still can't believe that baseball is NOT an Olympic sports, but dudes jumping on a trampoline is. Something is wrong with that, really wrong.
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Yesterday I unplugged from the world at noon so that I could watch the Olympics at night the way were used to...hours late. Here at work I am afforded the opportunity to watch everything live with multiple televisions and my iPad available at my desk, but I didn't feel like doing it yesterday. I wanted to sit on my couch with my wife and watch Lochte vs Phelps one last time. I held my breath every time Gabby Douglas flipped in the air. I cheered when Rebecca Soni broke her own world record then night after setting it to win gold.
With me going back in time to the days of yore before internet, before Twitter and Facebook, I almost felt like reading a newspaper this morning...almost. I really can't wait for the 2016 Olympics with live prime time events. I've gotten used to getting information in real time and I like it that way. I feel bad for Bob Costas having to fake dramatic speeches to keep the viewer locked in on NBC. Its such a waste. He must be so very bored, at least it looks that way.
I don't know if I'll try that experiment again, but it was fun for a night.
5. Hall of Fame Game
Preseason football is here!! It may not count, but it is football and I know you will watch. This was the only game that was canceled last season during the lockout, but this year you get Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints versus Larry Fitzgerald and the Arizona Cardinals. When it comes to thinking about the Hall of Fame, the Cardinals and Saints are two teams that don't come to mind. Dan Dierdorf was the last player to be inducted from the Cardinals franchise and he retired in 1983. The Saints have had a checkered history and have only seen three players inducted from their franchise. The game is Sunday night so watch the Olympics live on Sunday so that you don't have go back and forth...NFL!!!!!!
4. Baltimore at Tampa Bay
Just when you thought both of these franchises were dead in the water they right the ship. The Orioles have won 3 of 4 including 2 of 3 in New York while the Rays went 6-3 on a very difficult road trip to Baltimore, Los Angeles and Oakland. Each team stands only 6.5 games behind the Yankees after being more the double digits behind just two weeks ago. Do I think either will catch New York? No. In all actuality they have their sights focused on the two Wild Card spots where they are only 1.5 games out. Neither team made any key additions or subtractions at the trade deadline so the Orioles will continue to piece together a pitching staff, while the Rays will try and eke out enough runs to support their pitchers.
3. Los Angeles Angels at Chicago White Sox
After a grueling four game set in the heat of Texas where pitching was optional, the Angels now head to the mid-west to take on first place Chicago. The White Sox have feasted off the Minnesota Twins of late winning 5 of 6 games and also took 2 of 3 from the struggling Texas Rangers. They now begin a nine game home stand with both the Angles and Athletics coming to town. The only downside of this series is the neither Chris Sale nor Jered Weaver are scheduled to pitch as the Angels are pushing back Weaver to line him up against my Athletics next week...screw you Angels, screw you.
2. Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds
A meaningful series for the city of Pittsburgh in August. For the older generations that must just sound right. The Reds are blazing hot (and doing so without Joey Votto) and hold a 3.5 game lead over the Pirates. It's this close because Pittsburgh has yet to play a game against a team over .500 since the All-Star break. Really! Look it up...Milwaukee, Colorado, Miami, Chicago, Houston and Chicago again. Five crappy teams that are a combined 97 games BELOW .500. Yeah that's a cake schedule. Of course Cincinnati has gone 12-1 against very similar, soft, opponents in Milwaukee, Houston, Colorado and San Diego after starting the 2nd half against St. Louis and Arizona. We really don't know if either of these teams are really good, but they are good at beating bad teams.
1. The Summer Olympics
Week one is wrapping up meaning short distance swimming and gymnastics are coming to a close and track & field is getting under way. In between tennis, volleyball, soccer and basketball will start handing out medals as they are all just about finished with group stages. There have been plenty of great moments for the United States, but there have been some disappointments as well...I'm looking at you Ryan Lochte. Outside of the tape delay controversy here in the states, the lack of corporate sponsored fans filling the seats and the badminton scandal the London games have been rather successful. I still can't believe that baseball is NOT an Olympic sports, but dudes jumping on a trampoline is. Something is wrong with that, really wrong.
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Yesterday I unplugged from the world at noon so that I could watch the Olympics at night the way were used to...hours late. Here at work I am afforded the opportunity to watch everything live with multiple televisions and my iPad available at my desk, but I didn't feel like doing it yesterday. I wanted to sit on my couch with my wife and watch Lochte vs Phelps one last time. I held my breath every time Gabby Douglas flipped in the air. I cheered when Rebecca Soni broke her own world record then night after setting it to win gold.
With me going back in time to the days of yore before internet, before Twitter and Facebook, I almost felt like reading a newspaper this morning...almost. I really can't wait for the 2016 Olympics with live prime time events. I've gotten used to getting information in real time and I like it that way. I feel bad for Bob Costas having to fake dramatic speeches to keep the viewer locked in on NBC. Its such a waste. He must be so very bored, at least it looks that way.
I don't know if I'll try that experiment again, but it was fun for a night.
Wednesday, August 1, 2012
Fantasy Football 2012 Preview: Pick 'em
Every year you can look back at your leagues fantasy football draft and see same round picks of a single position where one team got a stud and one team got a dud. Last year in one of my leagues there were two of us that waited to draft a quarterback. My friend and I are notorious for picking our quarterback late and when my turn came up I had two 'sleeper' picks left on the board: Matthew Stafford and Josh Freeman. I couldn't make up my mind and I knew nobody else would take a quarterback by the time it got back to me so I let him make my decision for me.
With the 1st pick in the 7th round (14 teams), my friend drafted Josh Freeman. Five picks later I took Matthew Stafford and wound up winning my league. My friend missed the playoffs. Sometimes it is that simple. Another example was where the team before me drafted LeGarrette Blount which forced me to shift strategy and take Larry Fitzgerald with the very next pick because I didn't like any of the next group of running backs. Later on I took Fred Jackson to compensate for not getting the stud running back in Blount that I wanted. That worked out well too.
This is why the draft is very important and sometimes it has nothing to do what you want to do. You must be prepared to scrap your entire plan on the fly because each year is different, each draft is unique and every competing owner is unpredictable. Not to mention we really have no clue how each player will perform in the upcoming season. All you can do as a fantasy owner is to draft players who you think will have the greatest success and get you the best value for your pick.
I'm going to take a look at some of the decisions you might have to make in your upcoming draft. It could be the difference between playing for a trophy or dancing in a tutu for your friends and coworkers. Don't end up dancing in a tutu for your friends and coworkers.
Quarterbacks:
Eli Manning (ADP 31.9 via ESPN) vs. Michael Vick (ADP 31.9 via ESPN)
One quarterback has won two Super Bowls and one quarterback has hinted that his team is on the verge of a dynasty. Last year Michael Vick went 1st overall in my league and that owner went 3-10. Eli Manning went 93rd overall as a backup and his owner went 10-2-1. Nobody would have predicted that Manning would have 450 points to Vick's 271, but it happened and because of it they are a toss up this season. For years Eli has been seen a great fantasy backup quarterback, but could never be trusted upon to start week in and week out. I think that title has now fallen to Jay Cutler, but we'll discuss that another time.
The Giants have two stud receivers in Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz and the Eagles receivers, DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin aren't too shabby either. Eli Manning hasn't missed a game since becoming the starter in New York, while Michael Vick has played in only 25 of 32 games since the start of the 2010 season. Eli Manning cannot and will not run for points for your fantasy team (4 rushing TD's in his 8 year career) whereas Michael Vick has 12 rushing TD's in the last 3 years alone.
The most difficult words to hear for a fantasy owner when describing a player are 'when healthy'. When healthy Michael Vick is a great fantasy weapon. Same for Darren McFadden and Andre Johnson, but when they aren't healthy...which is A LOT...they are useless to you. I understand why owners are enamored with Vick, hell I drafted him 1st overall in 2003, but that risk is tough to overcome for a 3rd round pick. For Manning owners know what they are going to get. Nothing too flashy, the occasional brain fart game (see Week 15 vs. Washington which eliminated a ton of Manning owners from their playoffs), but a real steady starting quarterback by seasons end.
The ironic thing about these two quarterbacks is that Eli Manning would have been the perfect back up to Michael Vick last year and this year a quarterback in the same mold as Vick, Robert Griffin III, will be a perfect back up for Eli Manning in a 10 team league.
Peyton Manning (ADP 41.9 via ESPN) vs. Tony Romo (ADP 47.9 via ESPN)
So you're telling me that a quarterback coming off of at least 4 neck 'procedures' who is 36 years old and didn't play last season is being drafted ahead of a quarterback who topped 4,000 yards and 30 TD's in a supposed down year for him? Tony Romo has Miles Austin, Dez Bryant and Jason Witten to throw to and plays at least half of his games in a dome on turf. Peyton Manning has Eric Decker, Demaryius Thomas and Jacob Tamme as his best weapons and will be playing outdoors in the elements where he has seen a significant drop in statistics in his career.
I think people are drafting the name rather than using their brains here. I think Peyton Manning is one of the greatest quarterbacks to have ever laced them up, but he has played in one system for one team with basically the same cast of characters his entire career. This year he starts all over and nobody can be even certain that he's healthy or will stay healthy after he takes his first big hit.
For all the ridicule that Tony Romo takes for his late game failings, he is still a pretty damn good quarterback. In his 4 years where he started 13 or more games he has averaged 4,081 yards passing and 30 TD's. I don't see Peyton getting anywhere close to those numbers this year.
Running Backs:
Adrian Peterson (ADP 23.3 via ESPN) vs. Darren McFadden (ADP 25.5 via ESPN)
Two running backs who didn't finish the 2011 season healthy. This will be a significant topic of discussion leading up to drafts this year as along with these two Fred Jackson, Matt Forte, DeMarco Murray, Rashard Mendenhall and Jamaal Charles all suffered season ending injuries of some sort. All but Mendenhall are tabbed as their respective teams starters and are being drafted in the top 35 picks. I will not fault owners drafting any one of these backs, but you had better not select two of them in your starting lineup.
Instead of dissecting all seven, I'll highlight 'All Day' and 'Run DMC' because they have cool nicknames. Peterson tore his ACL which is a red flag in itself for running backs. To understand that he did that on Christmas Eve should mean he doesn't play in 2012. Well...here's the thing. Adrian Peterson is a freak of nature and apparently will be making a run (no pun intended) at starting in Week 1. If that happens and he is even just above average you might win your league with him as your possible #2 back. That's in a perfect world. Reality tells me he won't be ready at the start of the season and he won't be more than average at best for the first half of the season. That's too long to wait in the fantasy world. I will be watching him closely and if I see steady improvement he may be a great trading candidate mid-season.
The best news for future owners of Darren McFadden is that Michael Bush is playing in Chicago. The Raiders will not have anybody to steal touches away from McFadden unless you think Mike Goodson is the answer and I don't. What you really need to understand, though is Darren McFadden will not play in 16 games. He just can't do it and has taken over the 'Fragile Fred' moniker from Fred Taylor. Taylor played in 40 of 64 games in his first 4 seasons in the NFL. McFadden has played in 45. I bet you didn't know that played in all 32 of his games over the next two years. Maybe there is hope for McFadden yet.
Trent Richardson (ADP 29.2 via ESPN) vs. Steven Jackson (ADP 31.5 via ESPN)
A tale of two running backs at the opposite ends of their career spectrum. Richardson is a rookie who was drafted 3rd overall and is heading to a team that provides absolutely zero competition for touches. Steven Jackson has had 7 consecutive 1,000+ rushing yard seasons and even though the Rams took a running back (Isaiah Pead) in the 2nd round, his job doesn't look to be in jeopardy once again this season. I was personally burned by drafting a rookie running back in Ryan Mathews two years ago so I can't wrap my head around going all in on Richardson.
The question for fantasy owners is do you like the steady Eddie or do you want to roll the dice on one of the best running prospects the NFL has seen in a very long time? The Cleveland Browns will still be a bad team this season. What that means is they will be playing from behind for the most part. That doesn't usually translate to a lot of rushing attempts. It's unknown whether Richardson will be a good receiving option, but if he is he will stay on the field more and be far more valuable than Steven Jackson by seasons end. The Rams had a horrific season in 2011, but it didn't stop Jackson from having decent production. You would have to believe that they will be better with a healthy Sam Bradford under center and if so Jackson may have one more elite season for fantasy owners.
Wide Receivers:
Mike Wallace (ADP 26.6 via ESPN) vs. A.J. Green (ADP 29.4 via ESPN)
You want red flags about Mike Wallace? I've got red flags. He's holding out for more money. His quarterback is the epitome of the walking wounded and now has a 'little torn rotator cuff' per ESPN. He might not even be the #1 WR on his own team. Antonio Brown saw 11 more passes go his way than did Wallace and basically matched him in receptions and yards. The only saving grace for Mike Wallace is that he hauled in 8 touchdowns (to only 2 for Brown), but touchdowns is the one stat that fantasy owners cannot fall in love with.
The Steelers could easily split those 10 touchdowns 6 to 4 instead of 8 to 2 and all of a sudden the fantasy numbers of the two receivers could be even. Right now Antonio Brown's ADP is 70.4 and it is all based on his lack of touchdowns. If Wallace misses any more of training camp it will be interesting to see if he starts slipping and Brown starts rising.
Staying in the AFC North A.J. Green is the unquestioned #1 receiver for the Cincinnati Bengals. He was the same last year during his rookie season and was rather spectacular based off his expectations. He topped 1,000 yards receiving and hauled in 7 touchdowns on only 65 receptions. Another 10 receptions gets him over 1,200 yards and another 7 touchdowns would be the cherry on top.
The 1A's vs. The 1B's in the NFC
The New York Giants, Dallas Cowboys, Philadelphia Eagles, Green Bay Packers and Atlanta Falcons all pose a problem for defenses. They all have two really good receivers that could beat you at anytime. That's all well and good for them, but for fantasy owners deciding on which on to draft could be very difficult.
Let's look at them briefly:
Atlanta - Roddy White (ADP 19.3) vs. Julio Jones (ADP 36.1)
New York - Victor Cruz (ADP 31.9) vs. Hakeem Nicks (ADP 32.2)
Philadelphia - DeSean Jackson (ADP 61.9) vs. Jeremy Maclin (ADP 63.4)
Green Bay - Greg Jennings (ADP 20.0) vs. Jordy Nelson (ADP 39.0)
Dallas - Dez Bryant (ADP 45.3) vs. Miles Austin (ADP 51.0)
That's 10 players on five teams drafted between picks 19 and 64. Not all 10 are going to have an All-Pro season, but they will all, for the most part be a #1 wide receiver on fantasy teams. So which one, and only one, would you draft?
Roddy White is the first of the 'Big 10' coming off the board, but I can easily see Julio Jones outpacing him this season. Last year as a rookie, Jones saw about half the targets, caught about half the balls as the veteran White. Jones proved to be the deep threat averaging nearly 18 yards a catch (to 13 for White) and they both had 8 touchdowns. Imagine if just 10 of those catches by Roddy White end up in Julio Jones' hands. That 1170 yards for White and 1140 for Jones based off of their average yards per catch from 2011.
Victor Cruz came out of nowhere to not only surpass both his teammates in receiving, but finished 3rd in the NFL in yards. He went undrafted in every single fantasy league in the world last year. I'm sure even Victor Cruz didn't draft Victor Cruz. There is really no way he can duplicate his 2011 stat line is there? Well Hakeem Nicks is already injured and Mario Manningham went to San Francisco. The receiver that I'm most worried about on the Giants is Nicks. A broken foot is nothing to sneeze at for a wide receiver and that is what Nicks is coming back from. If he slips due to injury concern I'd feel much better about 2 rounds later.
The Philadelphia Eagles were 'a hot mess' as the kids would say in 2011. They were anointed as Super Bowl champions before the season started and finished 8-8 (even though the actual Super Bowl winners were 9-7). The lack of health and consistency from Michael Vick tempered the numbers that DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin produced, but it wasn't all his fault. Jackson proved to be the leagues foremost prima donna by getting himself suspended after missing a team meeting. Add that to his numerous dropped balls and its a wonder people still have faith in him. Jeremy Maclin quietly caught more passes than Jackson and even had one more touchdown than him. Maybe this is the year Maclin ascends to the top spot in Philadelphia.
Greg Jennings is being drafted almost two rounds ahead of his teammate Jordy Nelson, but why? Name recognition or a longer resume? Aaron Rodgers is currently the best quarterback in the NFL and it probably doesn't matter who lines up next to him in Green Bay. They should all be quality options, but I do know that Jordy Nelson will not catch 15 touchdowns this season. He'll be lucky to do half of that. Five Packers caught six or more touchdowns and that tells me the ball gets spread around. Its the key to the Packers success, murder by numbers. Greg Jennings has had 920+ yards receiving in five straight seasons and averaged 9 touchdowns per season as well. He has easily been the most consistent receiver on the Packers, but the fact that nobody is a true #1 (just like the New Orleans Saints) is the reason why its so difficult to take one of them with your first 2-3 picks.
Neither Dez Bryant nor Miles Austin led the Dallas Cowboys in targets, receptions or yards. It wasn't Laurent Robinson either. It was Jason Witten. Jason Witten is going 60th overall in a much shallower position for fantasy owners yet that is behind both of the wide receivers in Big D. That seems kind of odd, don't you think? To say I don't have faith in either of these two receivers is an understatement. There is not reason that they should be going in rounds 4-5. You just won't get the value you want from them because of the presence of Witten who is obviously the security blanket for Tony Romo. If they fall to rounds 6 or 7 and are your #2 receiver, jump on them immediately, but don't reach for either one.
Tight Ends:
Fred Davis (ADP 103.9 via ESPN) vs. Brandon Pettigrew (ADP 107.9 via ESPN)
On one hand you have a very talented tight end who is one drug bust away from missing a full season. On the other hand you have a great blocking tight end who catches a ton of short passes. They could both potentially put up really good numbers this season and could both be on the waiver wire by mid season. Brandon Pettigrew is a much safer pick, but his ceiling is far lower than that of Fred Davis. With a rookie quarterback who can run and some new speedy wide receivers to stretch the field, the middle of the field could be wide open for him. If he plays all 16 games I expect Fred Davis to challenge for Pro Bowl honors in a very deep position in the NFC. The only thing holding Brandon Pettigrew back is how the Lions use him. He doesn't go down field enough, he doesn't get enough red zone opportunities but and he blocks too much. Outside of that he fits the mold of a very good tight end. He is just on the edge of being a reliable starter.
With the 1st pick in the 7th round (14 teams), my friend drafted Josh Freeman. Five picks later I took Matthew Stafford and wound up winning my league. My friend missed the playoffs. Sometimes it is that simple. Another example was where the team before me drafted LeGarrette Blount which forced me to shift strategy and take Larry Fitzgerald with the very next pick because I didn't like any of the next group of running backs. Later on I took Fred Jackson to compensate for not getting the stud running back in Blount that I wanted. That worked out well too.
This is why the draft is very important and sometimes it has nothing to do what you want to do. You must be prepared to scrap your entire plan on the fly because each year is different, each draft is unique and every competing owner is unpredictable. Not to mention we really have no clue how each player will perform in the upcoming season. All you can do as a fantasy owner is to draft players who you think will have the greatest success and get you the best value for your pick.
I'm going to take a look at some of the decisions you might have to make in your upcoming draft. It could be the difference between playing for a trophy or dancing in a tutu for your friends and coworkers. Don't end up dancing in a tutu for your friends and coworkers.
Quarterbacks:
Eli Manning (ADP 31.9 via ESPN) vs. Michael Vick (ADP 31.9 via ESPN)
One quarterback has won two Super Bowls and one quarterback has hinted that his team is on the verge of a dynasty. Last year Michael Vick went 1st overall in my league and that owner went 3-10. Eli Manning went 93rd overall as a backup and his owner went 10-2-1. Nobody would have predicted that Manning would have 450 points to Vick's 271, but it happened and because of it they are a toss up this season. For years Eli has been seen a great fantasy backup quarterback, but could never be trusted upon to start week in and week out. I think that title has now fallen to Jay Cutler, but we'll discuss that another time.
The Giants have two stud receivers in Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz and the Eagles receivers, DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin aren't too shabby either. Eli Manning hasn't missed a game since becoming the starter in New York, while Michael Vick has played in only 25 of 32 games since the start of the 2010 season. Eli Manning cannot and will not run for points for your fantasy team (4 rushing TD's in his 8 year career) whereas Michael Vick has 12 rushing TD's in the last 3 years alone.
The most difficult words to hear for a fantasy owner when describing a player are 'when healthy'. When healthy Michael Vick is a great fantasy weapon. Same for Darren McFadden and Andre Johnson, but when they aren't healthy...which is A LOT...they are useless to you. I understand why owners are enamored with Vick, hell I drafted him 1st overall in 2003, but that risk is tough to overcome for a 3rd round pick. For Manning owners know what they are going to get. Nothing too flashy, the occasional brain fart game (see Week 15 vs. Washington which eliminated a ton of Manning owners from their playoffs), but a real steady starting quarterback by seasons end.
The ironic thing about these two quarterbacks is that Eli Manning would have been the perfect back up to Michael Vick last year and this year a quarterback in the same mold as Vick, Robert Griffin III, will be a perfect back up for Eli Manning in a 10 team league.
Peyton Manning (ADP 41.9 via ESPN) vs. Tony Romo (ADP 47.9 via ESPN)
So you're telling me that a quarterback coming off of at least 4 neck 'procedures' who is 36 years old and didn't play last season is being drafted ahead of a quarterback who topped 4,000 yards and 30 TD's in a supposed down year for him? Tony Romo has Miles Austin, Dez Bryant and Jason Witten to throw to and plays at least half of his games in a dome on turf. Peyton Manning has Eric Decker, Demaryius Thomas and Jacob Tamme as his best weapons and will be playing outdoors in the elements where he has seen a significant drop in statistics in his career.
I think people are drafting the name rather than using their brains here. I think Peyton Manning is one of the greatest quarterbacks to have ever laced them up, but he has played in one system for one team with basically the same cast of characters his entire career. This year he starts all over and nobody can be even certain that he's healthy or will stay healthy after he takes his first big hit.
For all the ridicule that Tony Romo takes for his late game failings, he is still a pretty damn good quarterback. In his 4 years where he started 13 or more games he has averaged 4,081 yards passing and 30 TD's. I don't see Peyton getting anywhere close to those numbers this year.
Running Backs:
Adrian Peterson (ADP 23.3 via ESPN) vs. Darren McFadden (ADP 25.5 via ESPN)
Two running backs who didn't finish the 2011 season healthy. This will be a significant topic of discussion leading up to drafts this year as along with these two Fred Jackson, Matt Forte, DeMarco Murray, Rashard Mendenhall and Jamaal Charles all suffered season ending injuries of some sort. All but Mendenhall are tabbed as their respective teams starters and are being drafted in the top 35 picks. I will not fault owners drafting any one of these backs, but you had better not select two of them in your starting lineup.
Instead of dissecting all seven, I'll highlight 'All Day' and 'Run DMC' because they have cool nicknames. Peterson tore his ACL which is a red flag in itself for running backs. To understand that he did that on Christmas Eve should mean he doesn't play in 2012. Well...here's the thing. Adrian Peterson is a freak of nature and apparently will be making a run (no pun intended) at starting in Week 1. If that happens and he is even just above average you might win your league with him as your possible #2 back. That's in a perfect world. Reality tells me he won't be ready at the start of the season and he won't be more than average at best for the first half of the season. That's too long to wait in the fantasy world. I will be watching him closely and if I see steady improvement he may be a great trading candidate mid-season.
The best news for future owners of Darren McFadden is that Michael Bush is playing in Chicago. The Raiders will not have anybody to steal touches away from McFadden unless you think Mike Goodson is the answer and I don't. What you really need to understand, though is Darren McFadden will not play in 16 games. He just can't do it and has taken over the 'Fragile Fred' moniker from Fred Taylor. Taylor played in 40 of 64 games in his first 4 seasons in the NFL. McFadden has played in 45. I bet you didn't know that played in all 32 of his games over the next two years. Maybe there is hope for McFadden yet.
Trent Richardson (ADP 29.2 via ESPN) vs. Steven Jackson (ADP 31.5 via ESPN)
A tale of two running backs at the opposite ends of their career spectrum. Richardson is a rookie who was drafted 3rd overall and is heading to a team that provides absolutely zero competition for touches. Steven Jackson has had 7 consecutive 1,000+ rushing yard seasons and even though the Rams took a running back (Isaiah Pead) in the 2nd round, his job doesn't look to be in jeopardy once again this season. I was personally burned by drafting a rookie running back in Ryan Mathews two years ago so I can't wrap my head around going all in on Richardson.
The question for fantasy owners is do you like the steady Eddie or do you want to roll the dice on one of the best running prospects the NFL has seen in a very long time? The Cleveland Browns will still be a bad team this season. What that means is they will be playing from behind for the most part. That doesn't usually translate to a lot of rushing attempts. It's unknown whether Richardson will be a good receiving option, but if he is he will stay on the field more and be far more valuable than Steven Jackson by seasons end. The Rams had a horrific season in 2011, but it didn't stop Jackson from having decent production. You would have to believe that they will be better with a healthy Sam Bradford under center and if so Jackson may have one more elite season for fantasy owners.
Wide Receivers:
Mike Wallace (ADP 26.6 via ESPN) vs. A.J. Green (ADP 29.4 via ESPN)
You want red flags about Mike Wallace? I've got red flags. He's holding out for more money. His quarterback is the epitome of the walking wounded and now has a 'little torn rotator cuff' per ESPN. He might not even be the #1 WR on his own team. Antonio Brown saw 11 more passes go his way than did Wallace and basically matched him in receptions and yards. The only saving grace for Mike Wallace is that he hauled in 8 touchdowns (to only 2 for Brown), but touchdowns is the one stat that fantasy owners cannot fall in love with.
The Steelers could easily split those 10 touchdowns 6 to 4 instead of 8 to 2 and all of a sudden the fantasy numbers of the two receivers could be even. Right now Antonio Brown's ADP is 70.4 and it is all based on his lack of touchdowns. If Wallace misses any more of training camp it will be interesting to see if he starts slipping and Brown starts rising.
Staying in the AFC North A.J. Green is the unquestioned #1 receiver for the Cincinnati Bengals. He was the same last year during his rookie season and was rather spectacular based off his expectations. He topped 1,000 yards receiving and hauled in 7 touchdowns on only 65 receptions. Another 10 receptions gets him over 1,200 yards and another 7 touchdowns would be the cherry on top.
The 1A's vs. The 1B's in the NFC
The New York Giants, Dallas Cowboys, Philadelphia Eagles, Green Bay Packers and Atlanta Falcons all pose a problem for defenses. They all have two really good receivers that could beat you at anytime. That's all well and good for them, but for fantasy owners deciding on which on to draft could be very difficult.
Let's look at them briefly:
Atlanta - Roddy White (ADP 19.3) vs. Julio Jones (ADP 36.1)
New York - Victor Cruz (ADP 31.9) vs. Hakeem Nicks (ADP 32.2)
Philadelphia - DeSean Jackson (ADP 61.9) vs. Jeremy Maclin (ADP 63.4)
Green Bay - Greg Jennings (ADP 20.0) vs. Jordy Nelson (ADP 39.0)
Dallas - Dez Bryant (ADP 45.3) vs. Miles Austin (ADP 51.0)
That's 10 players on five teams drafted between picks 19 and 64. Not all 10 are going to have an All-Pro season, but they will all, for the most part be a #1 wide receiver on fantasy teams. So which one, and only one, would you draft?
Roddy White is the first of the 'Big 10' coming off the board, but I can easily see Julio Jones outpacing him this season. Last year as a rookie, Jones saw about half the targets, caught about half the balls as the veteran White. Jones proved to be the deep threat averaging nearly 18 yards a catch (to 13 for White) and they both had 8 touchdowns. Imagine if just 10 of those catches by Roddy White end up in Julio Jones' hands. That 1170 yards for White and 1140 for Jones based off of their average yards per catch from 2011.
Victor Cruz came out of nowhere to not only surpass both his teammates in receiving, but finished 3rd in the NFL in yards. He went undrafted in every single fantasy league in the world last year. I'm sure even Victor Cruz didn't draft Victor Cruz. There is really no way he can duplicate his 2011 stat line is there? Well Hakeem Nicks is already injured and Mario Manningham went to San Francisco. The receiver that I'm most worried about on the Giants is Nicks. A broken foot is nothing to sneeze at for a wide receiver and that is what Nicks is coming back from. If he slips due to injury concern I'd feel much better about 2 rounds later.
The Philadelphia Eagles were 'a hot mess' as the kids would say in 2011. They were anointed as Super Bowl champions before the season started and finished 8-8 (even though the actual Super Bowl winners were 9-7). The lack of health and consistency from Michael Vick tempered the numbers that DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin produced, but it wasn't all his fault. Jackson proved to be the leagues foremost prima donna by getting himself suspended after missing a team meeting. Add that to his numerous dropped balls and its a wonder people still have faith in him. Jeremy Maclin quietly caught more passes than Jackson and even had one more touchdown than him. Maybe this is the year Maclin ascends to the top spot in Philadelphia.
Greg Jennings is being drafted almost two rounds ahead of his teammate Jordy Nelson, but why? Name recognition or a longer resume? Aaron Rodgers is currently the best quarterback in the NFL and it probably doesn't matter who lines up next to him in Green Bay. They should all be quality options, but I do know that Jordy Nelson will not catch 15 touchdowns this season. He'll be lucky to do half of that. Five Packers caught six or more touchdowns and that tells me the ball gets spread around. Its the key to the Packers success, murder by numbers. Greg Jennings has had 920+ yards receiving in five straight seasons and averaged 9 touchdowns per season as well. He has easily been the most consistent receiver on the Packers, but the fact that nobody is a true #1 (just like the New Orleans Saints) is the reason why its so difficult to take one of them with your first 2-3 picks.
Neither Dez Bryant nor Miles Austin led the Dallas Cowboys in targets, receptions or yards. It wasn't Laurent Robinson either. It was Jason Witten. Jason Witten is going 60th overall in a much shallower position for fantasy owners yet that is behind both of the wide receivers in Big D. That seems kind of odd, don't you think? To say I don't have faith in either of these two receivers is an understatement. There is not reason that they should be going in rounds 4-5. You just won't get the value you want from them because of the presence of Witten who is obviously the security blanket for Tony Romo. If they fall to rounds 6 or 7 and are your #2 receiver, jump on them immediately, but don't reach for either one.
Tight Ends:
Fred Davis (ADP 103.9 via ESPN) vs. Brandon Pettigrew (ADP 107.9 via ESPN)
On one hand you have a very talented tight end who is one drug bust away from missing a full season. On the other hand you have a great blocking tight end who catches a ton of short passes. They could both potentially put up really good numbers this season and could both be on the waiver wire by mid season. Brandon Pettigrew is a much safer pick, but his ceiling is far lower than that of Fred Davis. With a rookie quarterback who can run and some new speedy wide receivers to stretch the field, the middle of the field could be wide open for him. If he plays all 16 games I expect Fred Davis to challenge for Pro Bowl honors in a very deep position in the NFC. The only thing holding Brandon Pettigrew back is how the Lions use him. He doesn't go down field enough, he doesn't get enough red zone opportunities but and he blocks too much. Outside of that he fits the mold of a very good tight end. He is just on the edge of being a reliable starter.
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