Back in February of 2013 I already predicted what was going to happen come Sunday night. You don't believe me? Read HERE. Basically I had determined that Peyton would win that elusive second trophy over the Seahawks and then promptly retire. Of course I had amended that bold and correct prediction by September because ESPN came out with the same prediction in their NFL preview. I changed it to Denver vs. Atlanta and...well let's not discuss that any further.
Last night I was bored and decided to look back at all the Super Bowls and see if I could find a common theme between the outcomes and the participants based on three very key factors: being the Vegas favorite, being the more experienced franchise (played in more SBs) and having a QB that has started more Super Bowls than his opponent.
That's all I used to hear about when it came to pundits discussing which team had the edge. But was it really accurate or just conjecture? Here are the results:
Super Bowl Favorites are 32-15 (68%).
More experienced franchises are 26-14 (65%)
The more experienced starting QB is 16-13 (55%)....Denver is looking good as they are all 3 of these.
For quarterbacks who are starting their second or more Super Bowl against a quarterback who has never started a Super Bowl (Peyton vs R Wilson) they are 13-8 (62%).
Through Super Bowl 41 the numbers were much better for the experienced and the favorites. Things change drastically starting with the first Brady/Eli Manning - Patriots/Giants Super Bowl #42. Since then:
Favorites are 2-4
More Experienced franchises are 1-5
More Experienced QBs are 0-5!! (including 0-3 for 2+ starts vs first timers)
Remember...Denver is the favorite, they are the more experienced Super Bowl franchise and they have the more experience Super Bowl quarterback.
This has happened 14 times in Super Bowl history.
Teams are 11-3 when they have all three of those markers on their side.
Here's the kicker: all three times that a team has lost in this situation a Manning was involved!
Twice Tom Brady lost to Eli Manning and the NY Giants and once Peyton Manning lost to Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints.
I hope that didn't just make you cancel your bet on the Broncos.
The fact is things have certainly changed. Experience (both franchise/quarterback) means less now than it used to and being the Vegas favorite isn't a telltale sign anymore. As stated, favorites have lost 4 times in the last 6 games. Before that, favorites lost 4 times in 19 games! Vegas...get your act together!
If you're looking to bet on the Vegas line...STOP! Even though favorites are 32-15 overall, they are just 23-21-3 against the line...stay away.
Of course if you're all in on Denver this year as they have the three markers on their side...of the 11 teams who did win, 7 of them covered so there's that.
I'm sticking with my prediction of the Broncos winning it all. Denver 27 Seattle 24
Thursday, January 30, 2014
Friday, January 3, 2014
2014 NFL Playoff Preview
Outside of March Madness, the NFL playoffs are the best sports spectacle around. Four weekends of the best teams squaring off where anything can happen (ask the Denver secondary). There are plenty of story lines worth writing about and each team has its own motivation for winning (outside of the glory and the trophy and the fame of course). I have already gone on file saying that Denver would beat Seattle this year. I wrote that 11 months ago and nothing that I have seen has changed my mind. Now is that the Super Bowl I want to watch? Possibly. It would make me look smart and I could get invested in rooting for Peyton Manning, but on the 'sexiness' scale it may not rank as high as other possible matchups.
There are 12 teams that can win the Super Bowl this year. I'm going to rank them in order of pure 'sexiness' taking into account possible story lines and historical implications.
From worst to best:
12) San Diego Chargers - Lucky to even be in the playoffs thanks to KC kicker Ryan Succop choking on a last second field goal, San Diego is still trying to win its first Super Bowl. Philip Rivers is not a likable person, but Antonio Gates and Danny Woodhead would make for some interesting stories.
11) Carolina Panthers - Just like San Diego they have been to one Super Bowl and lost it. If they went to this years Super Bowl I think everyone would be sick and tired of Cam Newton and the possible Auburn double dip story lines come kick off. They just don't do it for me.
10) Indianapolis Colts - Andrew Luck has that possible 'it' factor, but not until he shaves the neck beard. Until Peyton retires I'm sure there is a good percentage of Colts fans wishing that Peyton and not Luck were 'manning' this team. Who would be discussed more during Super Bowl week: Peyton or Andrew?
9) Cincinnati Bengals - They finally ousted both Pittsburgh and Baltimore in their division, but are they ready to take the next step? Doubtful. Andy Dalton is too streaky IMO to run the gauntlet in the AFC. Gio Bernard is a personal favorite of mine and A.J. Green has star power. The Bengals are the third team still vying for Super Bowl #1.
8) San Francisco 49ers - I'm ready to be completely Harbaugh-less as soon as possible. Taking nothing away from Colin Kaepernick and the stout Niners defense, I just couldn't stomach coach Harbaugh for another month. Plus they've won enough as a franchise.
7) Green Bay Packers - The Packers went from heavy favorites to injury riddled to a Cinderella story all in the span of a single season. Aaron Rodgers and his 'discount double check' story line will be written to death. Eddie Lacy gives them a chance to stay balanced on offense. I can understand people loving them and hating them so they get a middling spot in this list.
6) Seattle Seahawks - When they play in Seattle they are downright nasty. When they play outside of their friendly confines they're just pretty good. Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch are great, but with so many substance abuse allegations from their secondary I have a feeling it'll all fell a bit tainted. They are the 4th team looking for their franchises first Super Bowl.
5) Philadelphia Eagles - The fifth and final first time possible Super Bowl winner. Chip Kelly has brought to Philadelphia the same thing the RGIII brought to Washington a year earlier in the NFC East...hope. Nick Foles is an unknown and he'll keep the spotlight away from backup Michael Vick. The Eagles could win a Super Bowl on one of their rivals home field which add extra juice to their story.
4) Kansas City Chiefs - It's fitting that Andy Reid is placed right next to his former team. The Chiefs have trailed off after a 9-0 start finishing 2-5. I don't have high hopes for them to piece it back together, but the story lines are there. Andy Reid and Alex Smith cast off from fellow playoff teams Philadelphia and San Francisco. Jamaal Charles and his speed and greatness. The Chiefs big play defense which has been hampered by injury in the second half of the season.
3) New Orleans Saints - Just a year after suspensions and sanctions derailed this franchise at its peak, the Saints return with a massive chip on their shoulder. Unfortunately they have to play on the road this playoff season which makes the job that much harder, but if they get to the Super Bowl it'll be an awkward two weeks of publicity. Just imagine Sean Payton taking the Lombardi Trophy from Roger Goodell.
2) New England Patriots - I'm sure plenty of people are quite finished with New England. Brady. Belichick. The Tuck Rule. Spygate. 2007s offense. Aaron Hernandez. Gronk. It goes on and on. You have to give it to Brady and Belichick though. With all the distractions that this season brought, they still found a way to go 12-4, get a BYE and are in line for another Super Bowl run. This has all the makings.
1) Denver Broncos - It all leads up to this. Peyton Manning and company breaking all the offensive records in the NFL. The failure of the defense a year ago is still the teams Achilles heel. Peyton Manning could win that elusive second Super Bowl on his younger brothers home field. This team was built to win this year and anything less will be seen as an epic failure.
Now that we've covered that let's look at some possible Super Bowl games that could be fun:
Kansas City vs Philadelphia: The Andy Reid Bowl
Kansas City vs San Francisco: The Alex Smith Bowl
New England vs New Orleans: The 'Cheaters' Bowl
Denver vs Philadelphia: The Defense optional Bowl
Denver vs Green Bay: The NFL Spokesperson Bowl
Here are some Super Bowls I'd rather not watch:
Carolina vs San Diego: Blech
San Francisco vs New England: The Most Annoying Coaches Bowl
Carolina vs Kansas City: First one to double digits wins Bowl
Seattle vs Cincinnati: Least Nationally Sexy Bowl
Seattle/San Francisco vs San Diego: Two West Coast teams on the East Coast Bowl
Now for predictions!!!!
Kansas City over Indianapolis
Philadelphia over New Orleans
Cincinnati over San Diego
Green Bay over San Francisco
Denver over Kansas City
New England over Cincinnati
Seattle over Green Bay
Philadelphia over Carolina
Denver over New England
Seattle over Philadelphia
Denver over Seattle...still.
There are 12 teams that can win the Super Bowl this year. I'm going to rank them in order of pure 'sexiness' taking into account possible story lines and historical implications.
From worst to best:
12) San Diego Chargers - Lucky to even be in the playoffs thanks to KC kicker Ryan Succop choking on a last second field goal, San Diego is still trying to win its first Super Bowl. Philip Rivers is not a likable person, but Antonio Gates and Danny Woodhead would make for some interesting stories.
11) Carolina Panthers - Just like San Diego they have been to one Super Bowl and lost it. If they went to this years Super Bowl I think everyone would be sick and tired of Cam Newton and the possible Auburn double dip story lines come kick off. They just don't do it for me.
10) Indianapolis Colts - Andrew Luck has that possible 'it' factor, but not until he shaves the neck beard. Until Peyton retires I'm sure there is a good percentage of Colts fans wishing that Peyton and not Luck were 'manning' this team. Who would be discussed more during Super Bowl week: Peyton or Andrew?
9) Cincinnati Bengals - They finally ousted both Pittsburgh and Baltimore in their division, but are they ready to take the next step? Doubtful. Andy Dalton is too streaky IMO to run the gauntlet in the AFC. Gio Bernard is a personal favorite of mine and A.J. Green has star power. The Bengals are the third team still vying for Super Bowl #1.
8) San Francisco 49ers - I'm ready to be completely Harbaugh-less as soon as possible. Taking nothing away from Colin Kaepernick and the stout Niners defense, I just couldn't stomach coach Harbaugh for another month. Plus they've won enough as a franchise.
7) Green Bay Packers - The Packers went from heavy favorites to injury riddled to a Cinderella story all in the span of a single season. Aaron Rodgers and his 'discount double check' story line will be written to death. Eddie Lacy gives them a chance to stay balanced on offense. I can understand people loving them and hating them so they get a middling spot in this list.
6) Seattle Seahawks - When they play in Seattle they are downright nasty. When they play outside of their friendly confines they're just pretty good. Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch are great, but with so many substance abuse allegations from their secondary I have a feeling it'll all fell a bit tainted. They are the 4th team looking for their franchises first Super Bowl.
5) Philadelphia Eagles - The fifth and final first time possible Super Bowl winner. Chip Kelly has brought to Philadelphia the same thing the RGIII brought to Washington a year earlier in the NFC East...hope. Nick Foles is an unknown and he'll keep the spotlight away from backup Michael Vick. The Eagles could win a Super Bowl on one of their rivals home field which add extra juice to their story.
4) Kansas City Chiefs - It's fitting that Andy Reid is placed right next to his former team. The Chiefs have trailed off after a 9-0 start finishing 2-5. I don't have high hopes for them to piece it back together, but the story lines are there. Andy Reid and Alex Smith cast off from fellow playoff teams Philadelphia and San Francisco. Jamaal Charles and his speed and greatness. The Chiefs big play defense which has been hampered by injury in the second half of the season.
3) New Orleans Saints - Just a year after suspensions and sanctions derailed this franchise at its peak, the Saints return with a massive chip on their shoulder. Unfortunately they have to play on the road this playoff season which makes the job that much harder, but if they get to the Super Bowl it'll be an awkward two weeks of publicity. Just imagine Sean Payton taking the Lombardi Trophy from Roger Goodell.
2) New England Patriots - I'm sure plenty of people are quite finished with New England. Brady. Belichick. The Tuck Rule. Spygate. 2007s offense. Aaron Hernandez. Gronk. It goes on and on. You have to give it to Brady and Belichick though. With all the distractions that this season brought, they still found a way to go 12-4, get a BYE and are in line for another Super Bowl run. This has all the makings.
1) Denver Broncos - It all leads up to this. Peyton Manning and company breaking all the offensive records in the NFL. The failure of the defense a year ago is still the teams Achilles heel. Peyton Manning could win that elusive second Super Bowl on his younger brothers home field. This team was built to win this year and anything less will be seen as an epic failure.
Now that we've covered that let's look at some possible Super Bowl games that could be fun:
Kansas City vs Philadelphia: The Andy Reid Bowl
Kansas City vs San Francisco: The Alex Smith Bowl
New England vs New Orleans: The 'Cheaters' Bowl
Denver vs Philadelphia: The Defense optional Bowl
Denver vs Green Bay: The NFL Spokesperson Bowl
Here are some Super Bowls I'd rather not watch:
Carolina vs San Diego: Blech
San Francisco vs New England: The Most Annoying Coaches Bowl
Carolina vs Kansas City: First one to double digits wins Bowl
Seattle vs Cincinnati: Least Nationally Sexy Bowl
Seattle/San Francisco vs San Diego: Two West Coast teams on the East Coast Bowl
Now for predictions!!!!
Kansas City over Indianapolis
Philadelphia over New Orleans
Cincinnati over San Diego
Green Bay over San Francisco
Denver over Kansas City
New England over Cincinnati
Seattle over Green Bay
Philadelphia over Carolina
Denver over New England
Seattle over Philadelphia
Denver over Seattle...still.
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