Thursday, January 30, 2014

Who will win Super Bowl 48?

Back in February of 2013 I already predicted what was going to happen come Sunday night. You don't believe me? Read HERE. Basically I had determined that Peyton would win that elusive second trophy over the Seahawks and then promptly retire. Of course I had amended that bold and correct prediction by September because ESPN came out with the same prediction in their NFL preview. I changed it to Denver vs. Atlanta and...well let's not discuss that any further.

Last night I was bored and decided to look back at all the Super Bowls and see if I could find a common theme between the outcomes and the participants based on three very key factors: being the Vegas favorite, being the more experienced franchise (played in more SBs) and having a QB that has started more Super Bowls than his opponent.

That's all I used to hear about when it came to pundits discussing which team had the edge. But was it really accurate or just conjecture? Here are the results:

Super Bowl Favorites are 32-15 (68%).
More experienced franchises are 26-14 (65%)
The more experienced starting QB is 16-13 (55%)....Denver is looking good as they are all 3 of these.

For quarterbacks who are starting their second or more Super Bowl against a quarterback who has never started a Super Bowl (Peyton vs R Wilson) they are 13-8 (62%).

Through Super Bowl 41 the numbers were much better for the experienced and the favorites. Things change drastically starting with the first Brady/Eli Manning - Patriots/Giants Super Bowl #42. Since then:

Favorites are 2-4
More Experienced franchises are 1-5
More Experienced QBs are 0-5!! (including 0-3 for 2+ starts vs first timers)

Remember...Denver is the favorite, they are the more experienced Super Bowl franchise and they have the more experience Super Bowl quarterback.

This has happened 14 times in Super Bowl history.

Teams are 11-3 when they have all three of those markers on their side.

Here's the kicker: all three times that a team has lost in this situation a Manning was involved!

Twice Tom Brady lost to Eli Manning and the NY Giants and once Peyton Manning lost to Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints.

I hope that didn't just make you cancel your bet on the Broncos.

The fact is things have certainly changed. Experience (both franchise/quarterback) means less now than it used to and being the Vegas favorite isn't a telltale sign anymore. As stated, favorites have lost 4 times in the last 6 games. Before that, favorites lost 4 times in 19 games! Vegas...get your act together!

If you're looking to bet on the Vegas line...STOP! Even though favorites are 32-15 overall, they are just 23-21-3 against the line...stay away.

Of course if you're all in on Denver this year as they have the three markers on their side...of the 11 teams who did win, 7 of them covered so there's that.

I'm sticking with my prediction of the Broncos winning it all. Denver 27 Seattle 24

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