Merry Christmas to me!!! Now that I'm all grown up and my son is still too young to enjoy the holiday season, this is what I look forward to each year. It's my own personal Festivus!!
This year I am in four fantasy football leagues, the first of which drafts tonight. It's the league that I will be writing about, once again, this season here. I am the commissioner of the 14 team league and we are now in our 16th season. We will gather in a room too small for 14 people and lay out pizzas and wings while we draft the old school way, in person. This is a normal snake draft save for the fact that we do a 3rd round reverse twist. After going 1-14 and then 14-1 in round two, we repeat 14-1 once again in round three before continuing to snake. In the five years or so since starting this, it has been proven that teams 1-7 and 8-14 have an equal chance of making the playoffs, which wasn't true before with such a large league size.
With the fourth pick tonight, it becomes imperative that I hit a home run with my choice. I only have two picks out of the first 38 which leaves me very little room for error (like taking the Darren McFadden/Steven Jackson combination from a year ago). I probably won't make up my mind until I'm on the clock tonight about which direction I want go.
Tomorrow afternoon I head over to my friends house for another in person draft. This league is completely different than my league. It is only 10 teams big and it is not only an auction draft, but we use keepers as well. I have not had much success in this league for whatever reason. I have tried to balance the win now approach while keeping an eye out for players who are a year away from stardom and getting them cheap. I have rarely drafted rookies which very well could be my main problem. This year I do have a rookie keeper in the form of Russell Wilson. I'm banking on him being starter worthy (one of the best 10 quarterbacks in the league) and freeing up some cap room space for other players. I will also be keeping his teammate, Marshawn Lynch and past diva/enigma receiver Dez Bryant. It's a good base, but I'm sure to screw up the rest of the roster. Once again I was burned by keeping Darren McFadden last season. No more.
Sunday brings me a new league. I will be writing for a fantasy football website (http://www.leaguesafepost.com/) this year and they have invited all the new writers into a league. It will be an online, auction draft and, obviously, it comes with some twists. There are no kicker or defensive spots. There is a normal flex spot as well as a, new to me, OP slot (offensive player utility) where you can even start a second quarterback. The scoring in this league leans heavily on touchdowns over yardage as 120 yards rushing/receiving will equal the points of one touchdown. Not knowing any of the owners and not being strong in auction drafts along with not seeing exactly how the scoring system will affect players puts me at a strategy disadvantage. I'll have to use guile and pure dumb luck to succeed in this one.
After I have recovered from my weekend of fun, I have one final draft on Thursday night. It's a relatively standard league save for it being a PPR (points per reception) league. That will slightly change my strategy as a player like Reggie Bush becomes a far more valuable player than the likes of Alfred Morris (if you believe Bush can stay healthy). This will be an online, snake draft and only 10 teams this year (we lost two mainly to the guys becoming fathers and hating a certain league mate who is just plain vile). It's only my 3rd year in this league and very possibly could be my last if that certain someone continues his wrath of being a prick. There are just certain things that ruin fantasy football and foul mouthed idiots will do it. I have never met him, but his online persona is of a person I'm glad I've never met.
Fantasy football is meant to be fun. A way to enjoy games in a secondary way rather than just rooting for your favorite team and against the Cowboys. I love to be active in my league with add/drops, trades and polite trash talking. Nobody can claim to be a master at fantasy football, there are just too many variables, but you can put yourself in a good situation to succeed in all league formats by doing a bit of research.
Good luck to everyone drafting this weekend, may your #1 draft pick not tear an ACL in Week 1 and may your sleepers become league MVP's.
Friday, August 23, 2013
Friday, August 9, 2013
John Cusack and 2013 Fantasy Football
For my third annual article of my introduction into the fantasy football season, I have chosen one of my favorite actors. Over the last
30 years, John Cusack has entertained viewing audiences with his quirky sense of humor
and his reluctance (for the most part) to avoid doing a movie just to
cash a Hollywood paycheck. The first movie I truly remember watching
repeatedly was One Crazy Summer when it aired pretty much every other
weekend on my local television stations. Whether it was the animated
sequences or the 'climatic' boat race at the end, it was always a movie
that kept me laughing.
Two movies that I won't touch on in this article, but that are two of my favorite of all time are Being John Malkovich and Grosse Pointe Blank. These are two completely different movies, but both fit the odd ball personality of Cusack characters to a tee. Now, Con Air is not what most would call an Academy Award worthy film, but I can't help watching it every time it is on television. Its the perfect time waster on a lazy Sunday afternoon. Put the bunny back in the box.
Last season I covered Denzel Washington where I definitely had some opportunities for improvement. I undersold the rookie class and overbought the Philadelphia Eagles. Frank Gore still had some gas left in the tank, but Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees once again put up monster numbers. I thought the Tennessee Titans would make some bigger strides and I completely bombed on my Donald Brown breakout prediction.
This season I will be looking back at the career of John Cusack and hopefully give my faithful readers an edge on either what to do or what not to do, depending on how good you think I am at this.
The Raven
I've wanted to watch this movie, but for some reason I haven't gotten around to it, but what better way to start this season than with a look at the defending Super Bowl Champions. Trying to repeat as a champion is difficult in any sport and this year already looks daunting for Baltimore. Gone are two legendary defensive stalwarts in retired linebacker Ray Lewis and free agent (Houston) safety Ed Reed. You have to expect a step back for the defense that has been such a fantasy monster over the last decade. On the other side of the ball, Joe Flacco has a new contract, but he lost veteran (and aging) wide receiver Anquan Boldin to free agency and recently, and far more importantly, emerging tight end Dennis Pitta to injury. In the four years since his rookie year, Flacco has been the model of consistency: mid to upper 3000's in yards passing, low to mid 20's in TD passes and double digit interceptions. Not the sexiest stat line and the main reason he'll never be a consistent fantasy starter. He'll keep Torrey Smith's numbers down, unfortunately, but he is the only receiver with massive upside, if Flacco can put a full season together. Ray Rice is the do it all back for the Ravens and for your fantasy team. There was something to worry about when the Ravens let Vonta Leach go, but he recently re-signed with the club and that cements Rice as a top 5 fantasy pick in my book. With Leach in the backfield with Rice, the numbers have been strikingly alarming. In the two seasons as a starter without Leach, Rice averaged 1908 yards from scrimmage per season while the two seasons with Leach he averaged 1844 yards from scrimmage per season. Wait? What? Doesn't that contradict the value of Leach?? No and here's why, Rice scored just 14 touchdowns without Leach and 25!! with Leach. That is the key number. Leach paves the way for the diminutive Rice inside the five without stealing the touchdowns.
Hot Tub Time Machine
In this comedy, a bunch of old dudes find a way to travel back in time to relive the years when they were young and hip in their own minds. Which aging veteran has one more viable fantasy season left in him like what Tony Gonzalez was able to to do last season for the Falcons (by the way he's definitely got something left)? Outside of Peyton Manning, the QB position is a young mans spot. If I had to take a veteran signal caller with the shot of doing something special, I'd go with Carson Palmer. Why? Two words: Bruce Arians. Oh you thought I was going to say Larry Fitzgerald? He's good, but maybe, just maybe Arians can find the proper scheme for those two to thrive. As for RB's, Frank Gore showed he wasn't ready to pass the torch to LaMichael James or Kendall Hunter just yet. The door is still open for one more season with Hunter injured, but its Reggie Bush (who I personally disowned three years ago) that should be primed to succeed. He loves open space and joins a Lions team that spreads the field like no other. Similar to the role that Darren Sproles has in New Orleans (that Bush was supposed to be), this could be a season of 75 receptions and double digit total touchdowns. Out wide, Dwayne Bowe has suddenly turned 28 before our eyes and his hopes for resurrecting his career rely solely on Andy Reid. The question is whether both of them are washed up or whether Bowe just needed a (once?) great offensive mind. Alex Smith isn't the greatest quarterback, but he should be sufficient enough to lead an above average offense in a weakened division. At tight end, old dudes still shine led by Gonzalez, Jason Witten and Antonio Gates, but its Greg Olsen who once again is primed to shine if only the Panthers use him more wisely. He's a match up nightmare, but he loses too many touchdowns to the run heavy goal line offense of Carolina. If Cam Newton just passes a handful more times inside the 10, Olsen could see his touchdown total climb to 9+ and make him a top five option.
2012
Oh John. I like you and I love end of the world movies, but 2012 just didn't do it for me. Just like the Mayans, the movie missed its mark with audiences. The rookie class of 2012 proved to be unlike the movie and was a complete box office smash hit. Andrew Luck, RGIII, Russell Wilson, Doug Martin, Trent Richardson and even late round sensation Alfred Morris all starred. This years crop of rookies can not and will not match them. As Ralph Wiggum once uttered: 'That's unpossible!' The fact that WR Tavon Austin was the first fantasy worthy choice at pick 12 says it all. There weren't high end, impact ready rookies this season. Now, of course, somebody will step in and shine, but I can't think of too many rookies that I'll spend a valuable pick on this go around. EJ Manuel and Geno Smith will aim to be the next in the line of hybrid quarterbacks a la RGIII and Colin Kaepernick, but unless you're in a deep keeper league, look elsewhere come draft day. The first running back off the board was my favorite college back as a UNC fan, Gio Bernard. He won't be the starter in Cincinnati, but he'll have his chances and could be a Darren Sproles clone in a year or two. Montee Ball is the one to watch as he is on a pass heavy team and will have room to run from day one. If any of the group has the potential to be a fantasy hero, it's him because Denver is going to score and score a lot. Peyton will have to let his rookie back score every once in a while, won't he? I also think Le'veon Bell is in a good spot with Pittsburgh while both Eddie Lacy and Johnathan Franklin will be looking to earn the majority of reps in Green Bay. Rookie wide receivers are usually a must avoid, but everyone is speaking wonders about Texans rookie DeAndre Hopkins. He is on a really good team with a stud receiver in Andre Johnson opposite him and he can catch the ball, no really catch the ball. I am calling him the next Reggie Wayne whom I coveted for years as Marvin Harrison was aging in Indianapolis. That being said, it took Wayne four seasons to have his first 1,000 yard campaign. Back to Austin who is in a good place in St. Louis where his speed will be on full display, but there's no chance he produces to his current ADP which is ahead of the likes of Cecil Shorts and T.Y. Hilton who will be far more productive.
Bullets Over Broadway
I've never been a fan of Woody Allen films (save for Antz) and I've never, ever, ever, been a fan of sports teams in the great state of New York. The fact is I downright loathe every team based out of the Empire State and luckily for me there are three New York based teams in the NFL for me to dislike. Yes, the Buffalo Bills are still both in New York (not Toronto) and still in the NFL. The Giants and the Jets get most of the publicity and seeing as they are co-hosting the Super Bowl this season, all eyes will once again be focused on them. In western New York, the Bills have overhauled the offense dispatching incumbent quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick to Tennessee and bringing in Kevin Kolb and rookie E.J. Manuel. Fred Jackson gave way to C.J. Spiller in the backfield last season and boy did Spiller shine averaging 6.8 yards per TOUCH while accumulating 1,700 yards from scrimmage and he only started 7 games (playing in all 16). The step back at quarterback will hinder his progression this season, but he's the one Bills player to grab. Steve Johnson is already injured and not worth much more than a third receiver on your roster at this point. The Jets have said adieu to the failed Tim Tebow experiment and hopefully they can refocus on football. Of course, I think a distraction to the pig slop that the Jets will roll out might be exactly what the fans will need. When Chris Ivory is your best bet at fantasy gold, you know you'll be struggling. That's not saying Ivory won't be a beast now that he has a chance to shine, but he's an awfully risky choice as a #2 starter in most 12+ team leagues. For the Giants, the picture is much more appetizing. Eli Manning has his stable of weapons back with Victor Cruz re-signing, Hakeem Nicks still fighting bumps and bruises, new tight end Brandon Myers and sleeper pick Rueben Randle to step in when Nicks misses his handful of games. David Wilson and Andre Brown could prove to be a fantasy owners nightmare with a split backfield. Wilson might handle the between the 20's running while Brown will steal away the scores. A disaster in the making barring someone breaking through. Pay close attention to that race during the preseason.
Money For Nothing
A mostly forgettable movie about John Cusack lucking into $1.2 million and his decision on whether to take the money and run or be a good citizen and return it. In the era of big money free agency, there are plenty of players who have parlayed one (or more) good seasons into a big paycheck from another team. Fantasy owners are also fooled easily by the big dollar sign and ignore whether the signing was actually a good fit for both the player and the team. I had high hopes for Percy Harvin (officially a trade, but Minnesota wasn't paying the big bucks) up in Seattle, but his hip injury has derailed his season until at least Thanksgiving. For quarterbacks, there really was nothing to write about. Ryan Fitzpatrick will probably play in a couple of games, but he's Ryan Fitzpatrick, so I'll pass. The running back position has at least one gold member in Steven Jackson. After nearly a decade toiling away in St. Louis, Jackson has been gifted the most idyllic situation he could ask for. He replaces Michael Turner, who, with limited burst left in his legs still mustered 10 rushing touchdowns. Jackson might be just a year younger than Turner, but he will feel seven years younger this season. No longer will he be facing an eight man front. Hell, he'll have his pick of holes with the vertical passing game that Atlanta can throw at defenses. This will be Jackson's last great fantasy year. Reggie Bush has moved on from Miami to Detroit and he is in a very similar situation to Jackson, with a slightly more inconsistent offense. Bush will excel in PPR leagues, but be more than serviceable in all league formats. Ahmad Bradshaw has moved on from the New York Giants to an up and coming offense in Indianapolis. His situation is a bit murkier as even though he can be seen as opening day starter, he'll have to deal with Vick Ballard and the ever disappointing Donald Brown for touches. Running the ball was the biggest opportunity for the Colts as they only scored 11 times on the ground and five of those were by quarterback Andrew Luck. Their top two backs did combine for 1,200 yards which would be a great season for Bradshaw if everything breaks right. Wes Welker is the obvious best wide receiver on a new team this season. He has partnered with long time rival Peyton Manning in Denver as the Broncos gear up to make a Super Bowl run. The only question is how Denver will spread the ball around to their big three receivers. The catches and yardage will be there for Welker, but he could be anywhere from 3-10 touchdowns. Mike Wallace could be a huge smash in Miami, but my 'Spidey-senses' feel it will be more of the same for Wallace as a one trick pony. He runs fast, he runs deep and when he's on, he's great. Too bad Ryan Tannehill hasn't proven himself enough to warrant my seal of approval. Greg Jennings pulled a Brett Favre and jumped from Green Bay to division rival Minnesota. The downward spiral for Jennings has been quick and decisive. Not only is he on the way out, but he has gone from fantasy stud Aaron Rodgers to fantasy enigma Christian Ponder. He's, at best, a third wide receiver in a deep league for me. At tight end Jared Cook is my guy to watch in St. Louis. I have high hopes for a breakout season from him. Martellus Bennett has gone to Chicago and is an interesting sleeper if Jay Cutler can stay upright and learn to once again use his tight end wisely. Bears tight ends caught just 25 passes in 2012 with 3 receiving touchdowns. Bennett will double that.
Shadows and Fog
Another Woody Allen film that I somehow missed. John Cusack wasn't among the top billed cast in this film, but was relegated to a smaller role. Just because a player isn't a starter on opening day, it doesn't mean he won't become a fantasy all-star for the season. Most players that fit this bill might not even be drafted. They will be picked up off the waiver wire in the first few weeks. The draft is just the stepping stone for fantasy owners. Not all the players you draft will be with you come week 12. Through trades, injuries, poor play and the waiver wire, your roster is mostly expendable. Weeks 1-4 are the key time frame to shape your roster into a playoff contender. Think back to Mike Vick a few years ago or Alfred Morris last season. Players come out of nowhere to All-Pro type seasons. Of course for every success off the waiver wire there will be a Kevin Ogletree who exploded last year in Week 1 and only had one more serviceable game over the next 15. This is also the most difficult list to prepare because nobody knows the practice squad guys yet, but I'll pick out a couple of guys and see if I get lucky. Rookies Latavius Murray in Oakland and Joseph Randle in Dallas are in prime positions as backups/third stringers. The veteran starters for their respective teams, Darren McFadden and DeMarco Murray are fragile (they must have Italian heritage). Both will get their chances to step in sometime this season. Roy Helu Jr. in Washington and Shaun Draughn in Kansas City could also find some playing time with the right breaks. Until last season, Redskins coach Mike Shanahan was known to change running backs as often as his underwear. Who is to say he doesn't revert back to that in 2013? Jamaal Charles has the majority of the touches locked up in Kanasas City, but Shaun Draughn was decent with his chances last season and could be a surprise if Charles comes up lame one week. Out wide, Riley Cooper may be a racist, but he is one of the few Eagles currently healthy. DeSean Jackson is a problem child and Jason Avant had zero touchdowns while catching 53 passes a year ago. In Minnesota, Percy Harvin is gone, Greg Jennings is in, but it is rookie Cardarrelle Patterson, that may wind up being the most productive by years end. Who knows if Jennings can stay on the field and Jerome Simpson was awful after his suspension in 2012. The one tight end that might surprise is Jordan Cameron. He has done next to nothing in his career to date, but now with tight end career maker Norv Turner in the house, he'll be given every chance to succeed.
The Grifters
I love movies about con artists and robberies. They could make 100 more Ocean Eleven movies and I'd watch them all. The Sting, Matchstick Men, The Thomas Crown Affair and on and on. Nothing beats a good theft. The same holds true in fantasy football. As an owner you are trying to maximize value out of each pick. Your first round pick should be the league MVP, your third round pick should post first round numbers and most importantly you need to find a breakout star in the sixth or seventh round (eighth or ninth in 10 team leagues). After you've acquired a solid starting lineup through the first handful of rounds, its time to grab players with pure upside. These picks won't cost you any games, but they do have a chance to make your season. Some of the the players that I'm keeping an eye on during the middle rounds are: Ben Tate in Houston, Ryan Williams in Arizona, Golden Tate in Seattle, Greg Little in Cleveland and Rob Housler in Arizona. I think that through injury and poor play in front of them, all five of these players could excel if given the right opportunity. Arian Foster is in trouble this season (so he'll be MVP right?). He has been overused with over 400 touches last season and has been battling injuries all off season. Ben Tate is more than capable as a backup and if I were coaching Houston, I'd be splitting the touches at a 60/40% clip, meaning horrible value for Foster, great value for Tate. Ryan Williams can't stay healthy while Arizona can't find a running back they like. Beanie Wells was shuttled away and Rashard Mendenhall replaced him. Stop laughing. This is Williams job for the taking and the only Cardinals running back I'm even thinking about drafting. Golden Tate has seen his numbers progressively increase over his three year career. Just when it appeared that Seattle was bringing in competition in Percy Harvin, Tate caught a break with the hip injury to Harvin. Still, Tate is being drafted, on average, 30 picks behind teammate Sidney Rice. That is great value for a player that is no worse than a co-number one wide receiver for the Seahawks. Greg Little took a step back in his progression last season thanks in large part to the play of rookie quarterback Brandon Weeden. My reason for hope, outside of the 3rd year receiver golden fantasy rule, is that Little ended 2012 strong with two of his three touchdown receptions. Weeden will have a year of experience and with Josh Gordon missing the first two games, Little will have a chance to get some looks as the go to guy right off the bat. Rob Housler is the starting tight end in Arizona, but he'll be no fantasy owners starter at the start of the season. With Carson Palmer under center for the Cardinals, Housler has to think he is in store for a lot of targets. Brandon Myers caught 79 passes from Palmer last season in Oakland. Housler can do that too.
Eight Men Out
This is one of my favorite sports movies of all time. The mostly true story of the 1919 ChicagoBlack
White Sox who threw the World Series to make some extra money because
of their hatred for owner Charles Comiskey. After taking the money and
intentionally losing the Series, eight players were banned from baseball
forever. Over the years I have banned players from my teams after
being burned one too many times. Yeah I'm looking at you Reggie Bush!
You can now welcome Darren McFadden to the club. This year (outside of
those two) there are eight players I have already crossed off my list
based purely on value versus their current ADP.
1. Rob Gronkowski - Barring a minor medical miracle, this will not be the year of the Gronk. I'm not wasting a third round pick on somebody who very well may miss the first six games of the season. I cannot deny his talent when healthy but he has had far too many surgeries in the last year for my liking.
2. Vernon Davis - I could easily put Jermichael Finley here as well. I just don't know what to do with these two. Davis disappeared when Colin Kaepernick took over and Finley saw 88 balls thrown his way and scored just twice. Two scores while playing on the Packers juggernaut of an offense?? Really?? Donald Driver and Tom Crabtree caught a total of 16 balls for Green Bay last season and had 5 total touchdowns. Meanwhile, Davis had one touchdown in his final 13 regular season games. That's unacceptable and I'm not going to watch and wait to see if the 49ers figure out how to use their best receiver better.
3. Chris Ivory - Well actually the entire Jets squad is nominated here. They look awful. Chris Ivory wasn't good with New Orleans and I am scared to death on how bad he'll be in New York. Simple as that.
4. Steve Johnson - I don't get the fascination with Johnson. It took him 12 weeks last season to hit 100 yards in a game. He's got a rookie quarterback that was overvalued throwing to him. He's already battling injuries. Red flags on the field everywhere. Avoid at all costs.
5. DeSean Jackson - The diva receiver. How I loathe thee. You can add Miles Austin to this spot too. Both of these guys have gutted my teams over the years and I'm done with them. Man up and play the game right. Shut your trap, run your routes, catch the ball and go back to the huddle.
6. Hakeem Nicks - Yes a Tar Heel. Even as a die hard fan of UNC, I'm giving up on Nicks. He can't stay on the field enough for my liking. Such a shame. Prove me wrong.
7. Tom Brady - Too many questions and I never take quarterbacks early, much less ones that have lost every single receiver he trusted in a year before. The quarterback position is so deep this year that there is no reason to reach for someone in such a precarious situation.
8. Maurice Jones-Drew - After being injured and while still playing for the lowly Jaguars, MJD is still being picked in the 3rd round in most leagues. Nope, not going to happen. I'd rather a younger David Wilson or Montee Ball on a much better offense instead.
The Sure Thing
Some say that John Cusack peaked in the '80s thanks to films like this one. Your classic boy wants perfect girl, but is paired up with another, completely opposite girl and you guessed it, they fall for each other. Throw in a road trip and you have the secret recipe for Hollywood success. Last season it seemed like every fantasy draft I did, quarterbacks went flying early and often. In my oldest league, a 14 team draft where the majority of us have been together for 15 years, there were five...count them...five quarterbacks drafted in the first round. That was unprecedented. I can't remember a season where more than two quarterbacks were chosen in round 1. I snagged an unknown rookie named RGIII in the sixth round which worked out nicely. Too bad I screwed up my first five picks so royally he couldn't salvage my season. This season the quarterback position is as deep as ever. In addition to Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees and Tom Brady who were by far and away the sure thing in 2012, Peyton Manning and Cam Newton returned to form. Matt Stafford might not have matched his 2011 campaign, but Detroit has Megatron and he throws 40 times a game. Rookies RGIII, Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson blew away any predictions and Colin Kaepernick came from off the bench to guide his team to a Super Bowl. Then there's Eli Manning and Tony Romo, two NFC East quarterbacks that put up good numbers and continue to be undervalued year in and year out. Last, and certainly not least, is Matt Ryan who was my preseason MVP choice last season, and he'll be in the running this season for the high flying Falcons. That's 13 top notch starting quarterbacks for any fantasy team. A glutton of a sure thing. Here's my advice for you when drafting...wait for a quarterback. I say it every year and it used to be a very risky proposition, but this season there is no need to take a quarterback until past pick 60 at the earliest. In a 10 team league you could even wait until the 8th or 9th round and still grab Luck or Eli and be quite happy.
Say Anything
The last great 80s comedy that John Cusack did is fitting for my closing rant. I'm going to stand outside your window with boombox in hand and rant all season. It's what I do. I've been doing fantasy football since the mid 1990's when the Bills were the preeminent offensive team. Here's my list of advice for people just getting into fantasy football or those looking to get better:
1. Immerse yourself into the world of football in preparing for your draft. Leave no stone unturned. Learn the rosters, the depth charts, the rookies, the veterans. A fantasy roster is not just about the starters in Week 1, its about having the players on your bench that will emerge in weeks 4 through 8.
2. Be active, if not overly active. You are the GM of a team and just like real GM's, be ready to move players to make your team better. Unless you're in a keeper league, you have just one shot with your roster. Don't get attached to anyone. If you see an opportunity to make your roster better, do it.
3. Have fun. I'm in a friends league where there is one bad apple who constantly brings down the morale of the league with his disgraceful banter on the league message boards. He fights with every owner, offers horrible trades and thinks he is God's gift to fantasy football. There's a reason you're playing in a $50 league sir, nobody has it all figured out. We all make mistakes, but some of us are humble enough to ride out the bad seasons in the same manner that we enjoy the good ones.
4. Draft with your brain and not with your heart. I'm a Redskins fan and in my keeper league I'm keeping two Seahawks (who ended Washington's season) and a Cowboy (hated rival). I play to win the game! Last season was awesome having RGIII and Alfred Morris on the same fantasy team while watching Washington streak towards the playoffs. That doesn't happen often and I'm not going to force it this season. Draft the best available player whether you hate his team or not.
5. Remember every league is different. The owners act differently. The scoring is different. League size varies. Each draft is different. My three primary leagues consist of a 14 team, in person, snake draft with the caveat of our 3rd round is reversed. This means we go 1-14, 14-1 and then 14-1 again in round 3. The next league is an online, 10 team, snake draft with the caveat of being a PPR (points per reception) league. My last league is an in person, 10 team, keeper league, with the caveat of it being an auction league. That's where each owner has a salary cap and every non-keeper is available for purchase at the right price. There are a million ways to run a league. Try them all.
Good luck this season.
Two movies that I won't touch on in this article, but that are two of my favorite of all time are Being John Malkovich and Grosse Pointe Blank. These are two completely different movies, but both fit the odd ball personality of Cusack characters to a tee. Now, Con Air is not what most would call an Academy Award worthy film, but I can't help watching it every time it is on television. Its the perfect time waster on a lazy Sunday afternoon. Put the bunny back in the box.
Last season I covered Denzel Washington where I definitely had some opportunities for improvement. I undersold the rookie class and overbought the Philadelphia Eagles. Frank Gore still had some gas left in the tank, but Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees once again put up monster numbers. I thought the Tennessee Titans would make some bigger strides and I completely bombed on my Donald Brown breakout prediction.
This season I will be looking back at the career of John Cusack and hopefully give my faithful readers an edge on either what to do or what not to do, depending on how good you think I am at this.
The Raven
I've wanted to watch this movie, but for some reason I haven't gotten around to it, but what better way to start this season than with a look at the defending Super Bowl Champions. Trying to repeat as a champion is difficult in any sport and this year already looks daunting for Baltimore. Gone are two legendary defensive stalwarts in retired linebacker Ray Lewis and free agent (Houston) safety Ed Reed. You have to expect a step back for the defense that has been such a fantasy monster over the last decade. On the other side of the ball, Joe Flacco has a new contract, but he lost veteran (and aging) wide receiver Anquan Boldin to free agency and recently, and far more importantly, emerging tight end Dennis Pitta to injury. In the four years since his rookie year, Flacco has been the model of consistency: mid to upper 3000's in yards passing, low to mid 20's in TD passes and double digit interceptions. Not the sexiest stat line and the main reason he'll never be a consistent fantasy starter. He'll keep Torrey Smith's numbers down, unfortunately, but he is the only receiver with massive upside, if Flacco can put a full season together. Ray Rice is the do it all back for the Ravens and for your fantasy team. There was something to worry about when the Ravens let Vonta Leach go, but he recently re-signed with the club and that cements Rice as a top 5 fantasy pick in my book. With Leach in the backfield with Rice, the numbers have been strikingly alarming. In the two seasons as a starter without Leach, Rice averaged 1908 yards from scrimmage per season while the two seasons with Leach he averaged 1844 yards from scrimmage per season. Wait? What? Doesn't that contradict the value of Leach?? No and here's why, Rice scored just 14 touchdowns without Leach and 25!! with Leach. That is the key number. Leach paves the way for the diminutive Rice inside the five without stealing the touchdowns.
Hot Tub Time Machine
In this comedy, a bunch of old dudes find a way to travel back in time to relive the years when they were young and hip in their own minds. Which aging veteran has one more viable fantasy season left in him like what Tony Gonzalez was able to to do last season for the Falcons (by the way he's definitely got something left)? Outside of Peyton Manning, the QB position is a young mans spot. If I had to take a veteran signal caller with the shot of doing something special, I'd go with Carson Palmer. Why? Two words: Bruce Arians. Oh you thought I was going to say Larry Fitzgerald? He's good, but maybe, just maybe Arians can find the proper scheme for those two to thrive. As for RB's, Frank Gore showed he wasn't ready to pass the torch to LaMichael James or Kendall Hunter just yet. The door is still open for one more season with Hunter injured, but its Reggie Bush (who I personally disowned three years ago) that should be primed to succeed. He loves open space and joins a Lions team that spreads the field like no other. Similar to the role that Darren Sproles has in New Orleans (that Bush was supposed to be), this could be a season of 75 receptions and double digit total touchdowns. Out wide, Dwayne Bowe has suddenly turned 28 before our eyes and his hopes for resurrecting his career rely solely on Andy Reid. The question is whether both of them are washed up or whether Bowe just needed a (once?) great offensive mind. Alex Smith isn't the greatest quarterback, but he should be sufficient enough to lead an above average offense in a weakened division. At tight end, old dudes still shine led by Gonzalez, Jason Witten and Antonio Gates, but its Greg Olsen who once again is primed to shine if only the Panthers use him more wisely. He's a match up nightmare, but he loses too many touchdowns to the run heavy goal line offense of Carolina. If Cam Newton just passes a handful more times inside the 10, Olsen could see his touchdown total climb to 9+ and make him a top five option.
2012
Oh John. I like you and I love end of the world movies, but 2012 just didn't do it for me. Just like the Mayans, the movie missed its mark with audiences. The rookie class of 2012 proved to be unlike the movie and was a complete box office smash hit. Andrew Luck, RGIII, Russell Wilson, Doug Martin, Trent Richardson and even late round sensation Alfred Morris all starred. This years crop of rookies can not and will not match them. As Ralph Wiggum once uttered: 'That's unpossible!' The fact that WR Tavon Austin was the first fantasy worthy choice at pick 12 says it all. There weren't high end, impact ready rookies this season. Now, of course, somebody will step in and shine, but I can't think of too many rookies that I'll spend a valuable pick on this go around. EJ Manuel and Geno Smith will aim to be the next in the line of hybrid quarterbacks a la RGIII and Colin Kaepernick, but unless you're in a deep keeper league, look elsewhere come draft day. The first running back off the board was my favorite college back as a UNC fan, Gio Bernard. He won't be the starter in Cincinnati, but he'll have his chances and could be a Darren Sproles clone in a year or two. Montee Ball is the one to watch as he is on a pass heavy team and will have room to run from day one. If any of the group has the potential to be a fantasy hero, it's him because Denver is going to score and score a lot. Peyton will have to let his rookie back score every once in a while, won't he? I also think Le'veon Bell is in a good spot with Pittsburgh while both Eddie Lacy and Johnathan Franklin will be looking to earn the majority of reps in Green Bay. Rookie wide receivers are usually a must avoid, but everyone is speaking wonders about Texans rookie DeAndre Hopkins. He is on a really good team with a stud receiver in Andre Johnson opposite him and he can catch the ball, no really catch the ball. I am calling him the next Reggie Wayne whom I coveted for years as Marvin Harrison was aging in Indianapolis. That being said, it took Wayne four seasons to have his first 1,000 yard campaign. Back to Austin who is in a good place in St. Louis where his speed will be on full display, but there's no chance he produces to his current ADP which is ahead of the likes of Cecil Shorts and T.Y. Hilton who will be far more productive.
Bullets Over Broadway
I've never been a fan of Woody Allen films (save for Antz) and I've never, ever, ever, been a fan of sports teams in the great state of New York. The fact is I downright loathe every team based out of the Empire State and luckily for me there are three New York based teams in the NFL for me to dislike. Yes, the Buffalo Bills are still both in New York (not Toronto) and still in the NFL. The Giants and the Jets get most of the publicity and seeing as they are co-hosting the Super Bowl this season, all eyes will once again be focused on them. In western New York, the Bills have overhauled the offense dispatching incumbent quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick to Tennessee and bringing in Kevin Kolb and rookie E.J. Manuel. Fred Jackson gave way to C.J. Spiller in the backfield last season and boy did Spiller shine averaging 6.8 yards per TOUCH while accumulating 1,700 yards from scrimmage and he only started 7 games (playing in all 16). The step back at quarterback will hinder his progression this season, but he's the one Bills player to grab. Steve Johnson is already injured and not worth much more than a third receiver on your roster at this point. The Jets have said adieu to the failed Tim Tebow experiment and hopefully they can refocus on football. Of course, I think a distraction to the pig slop that the Jets will roll out might be exactly what the fans will need. When Chris Ivory is your best bet at fantasy gold, you know you'll be struggling. That's not saying Ivory won't be a beast now that he has a chance to shine, but he's an awfully risky choice as a #2 starter in most 12+ team leagues. For the Giants, the picture is much more appetizing. Eli Manning has his stable of weapons back with Victor Cruz re-signing, Hakeem Nicks still fighting bumps and bruises, new tight end Brandon Myers and sleeper pick Rueben Randle to step in when Nicks misses his handful of games. David Wilson and Andre Brown could prove to be a fantasy owners nightmare with a split backfield. Wilson might handle the between the 20's running while Brown will steal away the scores. A disaster in the making barring someone breaking through. Pay close attention to that race during the preseason.
Money For Nothing
A mostly forgettable movie about John Cusack lucking into $1.2 million and his decision on whether to take the money and run or be a good citizen and return it. In the era of big money free agency, there are plenty of players who have parlayed one (or more) good seasons into a big paycheck from another team. Fantasy owners are also fooled easily by the big dollar sign and ignore whether the signing was actually a good fit for both the player and the team. I had high hopes for Percy Harvin (officially a trade, but Minnesota wasn't paying the big bucks) up in Seattle, but his hip injury has derailed his season until at least Thanksgiving. For quarterbacks, there really was nothing to write about. Ryan Fitzpatrick will probably play in a couple of games, but he's Ryan Fitzpatrick, so I'll pass. The running back position has at least one gold member in Steven Jackson. After nearly a decade toiling away in St. Louis, Jackson has been gifted the most idyllic situation he could ask for. He replaces Michael Turner, who, with limited burst left in his legs still mustered 10 rushing touchdowns. Jackson might be just a year younger than Turner, but he will feel seven years younger this season. No longer will he be facing an eight man front. Hell, he'll have his pick of holes with the vertical passing game that Atlanta can throw at defenses. This will be Jackson's last great fantasy year. Reggie Bush has moved on from Miami to Detroit and he is in a very similar situation to Jackson, with a slightly more inconsistent offense. Bush will excel in PPR leagues, but be more than serviceable in all league formats. Ahmad Bradshaw has moved on from the New York Giants to an up and coming offense in Indianapolis. His situation is a bit murkier as even though he can be seen as opening day starter, he'll have to deal with Vick Ballard and the ever disappointing Donald Brown for touches. Running the ball was the biggest opportunity for the Colts as they only scored 11 times on the ground and five of those were by quarterback Andrew Luck. Their top two backs did combine for 1,200 yards which would be a great season for Bradshaw if everything breaks right. Wes Welker is the obvious best wide receiver on a new team this season. He has partnered with long time rival Peyton Manning in Denver as the Broncos gear up to make a Super Bowl run. The only question is how Denver will spread the ball around to their big three receivers. The catches and yardage will be there for Welker, but he could be anywhere from 3-10 touchdowns. Mike Wallace could be a huge smash in Miami, but my 'Spidey-senses' feel it will be more of the same for Wallace as a one trick pony. He runs fast, he runs deep and when he's on, he's great. Too bad Ryan Tannehill hasn't proven himself enough to warrant my seal of approval. Greg Jennings pulled a Brett Favre and jumped from Green Bay to division rival Minnesota. The downward spiral for Jennings has been quick and decisive. Not only is he on the way out, but he has gone from fantasy stud Aaron Rodgers to fantasy enigma Christian Ponder. He's, at best, a third wide receiver in a deep league for me. At tight end Jared Cook is my guy to watch in St. Louis. I have high hopes for a breakout season from him. Martellus Bennett has gone to Chicago and is an interesting sleeper if Jay Cutler can stay upright and learn to once again use his tight end wisely. Bears tight ends caught just 25 passes in 2012 with 3 receiving touchdowns. Bennett will double that.
Shadows and Fog
Another Woody Allen film that I somehow missed. John Cusack wasn't among the top billed cast in this film, but was relegated to a smaller role. Just because a player isn't a starter on opening day, it doesn't mean he won't become a fantasy all-star for the season. Most players that fit this bill might not even be drafted. They will be picked up off the waiver wire in the first few weeks. The draft is just the stepping stone for fantasy owners. Not all the players you draft will be with you come week 12. Through trades, injuries, poor play and the waiver wire, your roster is mostly expendable. Weeks 1-4 are the key time frame to shape your roster into a playoff contender. Think back to Mike Vick a few years ago or Alfred Morris last season. Players come out of nowhere to All-Pro type seasons. Of course for every success off the waiver wire there will be a Kevin Ogletree who exploded last year in Week 1 and only had one more serviceable game over the next 15. This is also the most difficult list to prepare because nobody knows the practice squad guys yet, but I'll pick out a couple of guys and see if I get lucky. Rookies Latavius Murray in Oakland and Joseph Randle in Dallas are in prime positions as backups/third stringers. The veteran starters for their respective teams, Darren McFadden and DeMarco Murray are fragile (they must have Italian heritage). Both will get their chances to step in sometime this season. Roy Helu Jr. in Washington and Shaun Draughn in Kansas City could also find some playing time with the right breaks. Until last season, Redskins coach Mike Shanahan was known to change running backs as often as his underwear. Who is to say he doesn't revert back to that in 2013? Jamaal Charles has the majority of the touches locked up in Kanasas City, but Shaun Draughn was decent with his chances last season and could be a surprise if Charles comes up lame one week. Out wide, Riley Cooper may be a racist, but he is one of the few Eagles currently healthy. DeSean Jackson is a problem child and Jason Avant had zero touchdowns while catching 53 passes a year ago. In Minnesota, Percy Harvin is gone, Greg Jennings is in, but it is rookie Cardarrelle Patterson, that may wind up being the most productive by years end. Who knows if Jennings can stay on the field and Jerome Simpson was awful after his suspension in 2012. The one tight end that might surprise is Jordan Cameron. He has done next to nothing in his career to date, but now with tight end career maker Norv Turner in the house, he'll be given every chance to succeed.
The Grifters
I love movies about con artists and robberies. They could make 100 more Ocean Eleven movies and I'd watch them all. The Sting, Matchstick Men, The Thomas Crown Affair and on and on. Nothing beats a good theft. The same holds true in fantasy football. As an owner you are trying to maximize value out of each pick. Your first round pick should be the league MVP, your third round pick should post first round numbers and most importantly you need to find a breakout star in the sixth or seventh round (eighth or ninth in 10 team leagues). After you've acquired a solid starting lineup through the first handful of rounds, its time to grab players with pure upside. These picks won't cost you any games, but they do have a chance to make your season. Some of the the players that I'm keeping an eye on during the middle rounds are: Ben Tate in Houston, Ryan Williams in Arizona, Golden Tate in Seattle, Greg Little in Cleveland and Rob Housler in Arizona. I think that through injury and poor play in front of them, all five of these players could excel if given the right opportunity. Arian Foster is in trouble this season (so he'll be MVP right?). He has been overused with over 400 touches last season and has been battling injuries all off season. Ben Tate is more than capable as a backup and if I were coaching Houston, I'd be splitting the touches at a 60/40% clip, meaning horrible value for Foster, great value for Tate. Ryan Williams can't stay healthy while Arizona can't find a running back they like. Beanie Wells was shuttled away and Rashard Mendenhall replaced him. Stop laughing. This is Williams job for the taking and the only Cardinals running back I'm even thinking about drafting. Golden Tate has seen his numbers progressively increase over his three year career. Just when it appeared that Seattle was bringing in competition in Percy Harvin, Tate caught a break with the hip injury to Harvin. Still, Tate is being drafted, on average, 30 picks behind teammate Sidney Rice. That is great value for a player that is no worse than a co-number one wide receiver for the Seahawks. Greg Little took a step back in his progression last season thanks in large part to the play of rookie quarterback Brandon Weeden. My reason for hope, outside of the 3rd year receiver golden fantasy rule, is that Little ended 2012 strong with two of his three touchdown receptions. Weeden will have a year of experience and with Josh Gordon missing the first two games, Little will have a chance to get some looks as the go to guy right off the bat. Rob Housler is the starting tight end in Arizona, but he'll be no fantasy owners starter at the start of the season. With Carson Palmer under center for the Cardinals, Housler has to think he is in store for a lot of targets. Brandon Myers caught 79 passes from Palmer last season in Oakland. Housler can do that too.
Eight Men Out
This is one of my favorite sports movies of all time. The mostly true story of the 1919 Chicago
1. Rob Gronkowski - Barring a minor medical miracle, this will not be the year of the Gronk. I'm not wasting a third round pick on somebody who very well may miss the first six games of the season. I cannot deny his talent when healthy but he has had far too many surgeries in the last year for my liking.
2. Vernon Davis - I could easily put Jermichael Finley here as well. I just don't know what to do with these two. Davis disappeared when Colin Kaepernick took over and Finley saw 88 balls thrown his way and scored just twice. Two scores while playing on the Packers juggernaut of an offense?? Really?? Donald Driver and Tom Crabtree caught a total of 16 balls for Green Bay last season and had 5 total touchdowns. Meanwhile, Davis had one touchdown in his final 13 regular season games. That's unacceptable and I'm not going to watch and wait to see if the 49ers figure out how to use their best receiver better.
3. Chris Ivory - Well actually the entire Jets squad is nominated here. They look awful. Chris Ivory wasn't good with New Orleans and I am scared to death on how bad he'll be in New York. Simple as that.
4. Steve Johnson - I don't get the fascination with Johnson. It took him 12 weeks last season to hit 100 yards in a game. He's got a rookie quarterback that was overvalued throwing to him. He's already battling injuries. Red flags on the field everywhere. Avoid at all costs.
5. DeSean Jackson - The diva receiver. How I loathe thee. You can add Miles Austin to this spot too. Both of these guys have gutted my teams over the years and I'm done with them. Man up and play the game right. Shut your trap, run your routes, catch the ball and go back to the huddle.
6. Hakeem Nicks - Yes a Tar Heel. Even as a die hard fan of UNC, I'm giving up on Nicks. He can't stay on the field enough for my liking. Such a shame. Prove me wrong.
7. Tom Brady - Too many questions and I never take quarterbacks early, much less ones that have lost every single receiver he trusted in a year before. The quarterback position is so deep this year that there is no reason to reach for someone in such a precarious situation.
8. Maurice Jones-Drew - After being injured and while still playing for the lowly Jaguars, MJD is still being picked in the 3rd round in most leagues. Nope, not going to happen. I'd rather a younger David Wilson or Montee Ball on a much better offense instead.
The Sure Thing
Some say that John Cusack peaked in the '80s thanks to films like this one. Your classic boy wants perfect girl, but is paired up with another, completely opposite girl and you guessed it, they fall for each other. Throw in a road trip and you have the secret recipe for Hollywood success. Last season it seemed like every fantasy draft I did, quarterbacks went flying early and often. In my oldest league, a 14 team draft where the majority of us have been together for 15 years, there were five...count them...five quarterbacks drafted in the first round. That was unprecedented. I can't remember a season where more than two quarterbacks were chosen in round 1. I snagged an unknown rookie named RGIII in the sixth round which worked out nicely. Too bad I screwed up my first five picks so royally he couldn't salvage my season. This season the quarterback position is as deep as ever. In addition to Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees and Tom Brady who were by far and away the sure thing in 2012, Peyton Manning and Cam Newton returned to form. Matt Stafford might not have matched his 2011 campaign, but Detroit has Megatron and he throws 40 times a game. Rookies RGIII, Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson blew away any predictions and Colin Kaepernick came from off the bench to guide his team to a Super Bowl. Then there's Eli Manning and Tony Romo, two NFC East quarterbacks that put up good numbers and continue to be undervalued year in and year out. Last, and certainly not least, is Matt Ryan who was my preseason MVP choice last season, and he'll be in the running this season for the high flying Falcons. That's 13 top notch starting quarterbacks for any fantasy team. A glutton of a sure thing. Here's my advice for you when drafting...wait for a quarterback. I say it every year and it used to be a very risky proposition, but this season there is no need to take a quarterback until past pick 60 at the earliest. In a 10 team league you could even wait until the 8th or 9th round and still grab Luck or Eli and be quite happy.
Say Anything
The last great 80s comedy that John Cusack did is fitting for my closing rant. I'm going to stand outside your window with boombox in hand and rant all season. It's what I do. I've been doing fantasy football since the mid 1990's when the Bills were the preeminent offensive team. Here's my list of advice for people just getting into fantasy football or those looking to get better:
1. Immerse yourself into the world of football in preparing for your draft. Leave no stone unturned. Learn the rosters, the depth charts, the rookies, the veterans. A fantasy roster is not just about the starters in Week 1, its about having the players on your bench that will emerge in weeks 4 through 8.
2. Be active, if not overly active. You are the GM of a team and just like real GM's, be ready to move players to make your team better. Unless you're in a keeper league, you have just one shot with your roster. Don't get attached to anyone. If you see an opportunity to make your roster better, do it.
3. Have fun. I'm in a friends league where there is one bad apple who constantly brings down the morale of the league with his disgraceful banter on the league message boards. He fights with every owner, offers horrible trades and thinks he is God's gift to fantasy football. There's a reason you're playing in a $50 league sir, nobody has it all figured out. We all make mistakes, but some of us are humble enough to ride out the bad seasons in the same manner that we enjoy the good ones.
4. Draft with your brain and not with your heart. I'm a Redskins fan and in my keeper league I'm keeping two Seahawks (who ended Washington's season) and a Cowboy (hated rival). I play to win the game! Last season was awesome having RGIII and Alfred Morris on the same fantasy team while watching Washington streak towards the playoffs. That doesn't happen often and I'm not going to force it this season. Draft the best available player whether you hate his team or not.
5. Remember every league is different. The owners act differently. The scoring is different. League size varies. Each draft is different. My three primary leagues consist of a 14 team, in person, snake draft with the caveat of our 3rd round is reversed. This means we go 1-14, 14-1 and then 14-1 again in round 3. The next league is an online, 10 team, snake draft with the caveat of being a PPR (points per reception) league. My last league is an in person, 10 team, keeper league, with the caveat of it being an auction league. That's where each owner has a salary cap and every non-keeper is available for purchase at the right price. There are a million ways to run a league. Try them all.
Good luck this season.
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