The Newest 'Big 3'

I promised I wasn't going to write a blog post during 'Fantasy Football Draft Week', but here I am sitting down on Sunday night inspired once again by the Washington Nationals.  All the recent focus for the team is the imminent shutout of star pitcher Stephen Strasburg.  If you think I'm going to rant about that tonight, you're wrong.  If you think I'm going to write about the Nationals getting oh so close to clinching their first ever playoff spot...not just yet.  With 41 games left they hold a 5 game lead in the N.L. East and it with the second place Atlanta Braves coming to town we might know a little more about the fate of the 2012 Nationals in 72 hours.

With 121 games in the books, Washington is 3/4 of the way through a possibly magical season.  It reminds me of the 2001 Oakland Athletics who get real good, real quick.  It was a year faster than expected, but once the ball got rolling the team wouldn't and couldn't stop winning.  That Athletics team won 102 games that season (finishing a scant 14 games out of 1st place behind the fluke of a team that was Seattle).  This years Nationals are on pace to win 100.5 games (which I am being told is impossible to do) and they are doing it with a very similar structure.

Both the 2012 Nationals and the 2001 Athletics relied on their top 3 starting pitchers.  In 2001 for Oakland it was Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder and Barry Zito.  This year it is Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez and Jordan Zimmermann in Washington.  Of course during my lifetime, the 2001 Athletics were quickly compared to the Atlanta Braves 'Big 3' of Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine and John Smoltz who first united in 1993.

Atlanta ended up with 7 seasons (1993-1999) with their version, Oakland got only 4 seasons (2001-2004) and with all three of the Nationals starters locked up until at least 2016, it looks like we could get at minimum 5 seasons of the current 'Big 3'.  So how do the 2012 Nationals stack up against the 'best of the best' during my lifetime?  That is the question that got me researching and now typing.  Is it a bit premature to lump Strasburg and company in with the others?  Maybe.  But what I found out in looking back is very interesting to say the least.

Here are a look at some of the best seasons that the Braves and Athletics 'Big 3's' amassed:

1993 Atlanta Braves
Maddux, Smoltz and Glavine were an average age of 26.6 years old. 
Record: 57-27 Win Percentage: 68% Combined ERA: 3.03 (N.L. ERA 4.05)
Lost NLCS

1995 Atlanta Braves
Maddux, Smoltz and Glavine were an average age of 28.6 years old.
Record: 47-16 Win Percentage: 75% Combined ERA: 2.79 (N.L. ERA 4.18)
Won World Series

1996 Atlanta Braves
Maddux, Smoltz and Glavine were an average age of 29.6 years old.
Record: 54-29 Win Percentage: 65% Combined ERA: 2.88 (N.L ERA 4.22)
Lost World Series

1997 Atlanta Braves
Maddux, Smoltz and Glavine were an average age of 30.6 years old.
Record: 48-23 Win Percentage: 68% Combined ERA: 2.74 (N.L. ERA 4.21)
Lost NLCS

1998 Atlanta Braves
Maddux, Smoltz and Glavine were an average age of 31.6 years old.
Record: 55-18 Win Percentage: 75% Combined ERA: 2.49 (N.L. ERA 4.24)
Lost NLCS

2001 Oakland Athletics
Hudson, Mulder and Zito were an average age of 23.6 years old.
Record: 56-25 Win Percentage: 69% Combined ERA: 3.43 (A.L. ERA 4.48)
Lost ALDS

2002 Oakland Athletics
Hudson, Mulder and Zito were an average age of 24.6 years old.
Record: 57-21 Win Percentage: 73% Combined ERA: 3.05 (A.L. ERA 4.47)
Lost ALDS

2012 Washington Nationals
Strasburg, Gonzalez, Zimmerman are an average age of 25 years old.
Record as of 8/19/12: 39-18 Win Percentage: 68% Combined ERA: 2.86 (N.L. ERA 4.00)

With 41 games left (and ignoring Strasburg being shut down) the 'Big 3' will get 24 more starts and that puts them on pace for a record of: 52-24 and that low (relatively speaking) win total is thanks in large part to the lack of offense Jordan Zimmermann received in the 1st half of the season, but stuff happens.

One key statistic is that from 1993-1999 the Atlanta Braves made the playoffs each year that there were playoffs (the strike in 1994 canceled the playoffs).  The Oakland Athletics made the playoffs between 2001-2003 and finished 1 game behind the Angels in 2004.  According to ESPN the Washington Nationals have a 99.1% chance of making the playoffs this season.

The next key statistic is there being only 1 World Series championship over the 10 full seasons of the Braves and Athletics pitching accomplishments.  You have to have some exceedingly high expectations for the Nationals over the next 5 seasons that withstanding.  Pitching may not win you a World Series title, but it certainly gives you a leg up on the competition.

The final key to the three teams is the durability that the pitchers had while together.  It takes a full season of health to put up the gaudy win totals that were seen.  The Athletics didn't wait for injury to derail their pitching, but rather traded away their key assets at their peak.  Mark Mulder's career was shortened by back injuries after being traded away, Tim Hudson has fought through injuries in Atlanta and Barry Zito forgot how to throw strikes after crossing the Bay into San Francisco.

The Braves just kept rolling their trio out year after year with the payroll big enough to afford them.  John Smoltz was then injured in 2000 and most of 2001 and turned into a reliever for 3 seasons before rejoining the Braves rotation with Hudson in 2005.  Both Tom Glavine and Greg Maddux stayed mostly injury free for the remainder of their careers although Maddux returned to Chicago in 2004 and Glavine went to the rival Mets in 2003.

The future of the Washington Nationals has a wonderful foundation as long as Strasburg, Gonzalez and Zimmermann stay healthy and together.  It appears the higher ups in the Nationals organization are playing it safe with Strasburg (coming off of Tommy John surgery in 2010) this season with the looming 'shutdown', but if it ensures four more seasons of watching the newest 'Big 3' pitch it may just be worth it.

That being said...let the big dog run.

Oh yeah, I'll be at Monday's game watching Tim Hudson vs. Jordan Zimmermann...it all comes full circle, doesn't it?