Tuesday, December 15, 2015

Does This Make Me a Bad Fan?

I am a die hard Washington Redskins fan.

I am old enough to remember watching two of the three Super Bowls in their franchise history.

I have sat through the last 23 mostly pointless seasons.

I cried when Sean Taylor died.

I cried after Chris Cooley scored three times while I was at my first live Redskins v Cowboys games which was just days after my cousin died in a car accident.

I bought a RGIII jersey for me and my newborn son and had him on my fantasy team during that magical 2012 run.

I would be happy if the 2015 Redskins lost two of their final three games this season.

You read correctly and no this does not make me a bad fan. At 6-7 the Redskins are in the catbird seat of a very underwhelming NFC East. In my mind they have already matched expectations going into the season. Would a 9-7 season and a division crown be great? Sure, of course it would. But, and this is a big but, this team is not winning a Super Bowl. They still have far too many holes, have suffered too many injuries that crippled their growing depth and just cannot compete against the best the NFL has to offer. We have already seen them get outscored by the two Super Bowl favorites (the Panthers/Patriots) 71-26. They haven't won back to back games during their last 21 games played. They just snapped a pesky nine game losing streak on the road. To win a Super Bowl they would have to not only win 8 straight games, but four more road games including road games against the same Panthers and either Arizona or Green Bay. It is not happening.

For the first time since 2012 and maybe even more so because they didn't give up draft picks recently, I can honestly say that I believe the Redskins are on a good path. They have a proven person in charge of finding talent and depth. They have a quarterback who seems to grasp an NFL style offense. They have plus talent at some key skill positions and they are not cap strung nor have they mortgaged their draft picks. All this and they are still probably two years away from hopefully being a contender. They need to bring in 20 more draft picks, avoid the injury bug, stick with Kirk Cousins and the entire coaching staff and see what happens. This is how it is done in the NFL. You can't buy a Super Bowl. It comes via the draft and continuity.

Now the reasons why I want the Redskins to lose out this season.

1) I don't want to lose to Seattle by 30 on our home field in the playoffs.

2) I want a better draft pick

3) I want an easier (in theory) schedule next year

The East is locked in as the #4 seed for this years playoffs in the NFC. The Seahawks are the current #5 seed and can't win their division. The last three times the Redskins have made the playoffs, their season has ended with a loss to Seattle. No thank you, been there done that. They aren't ready for that.

{Counter-point}

You have to get playoff experience in order to know how to win in the playoffs. Yes and no. Making the playoffs is one thing, but being good and winning 10+ games repeatedly is far more important. Let's look at the last few champions:

2010 Season

Champion Green Bay Packers went 10-6 a year after going 11-5

2011 Season

Champion New York Giants went 9-7 a year after going 10-6

2012 Season

Champion Baltimore Ravens went 10-6 a year after going 12-4

2013 Season

Champion Seattle Seahawks went 13-3 a year after going 11-5

2014 Season

Champion New England Patriots went 12-4 a year after going 12-4

So the last five champs won their Super Bowl with 10.8 wins but also won 11.2 games the previous year. Only the Giants in 2011 failed to win 10+ in a year during or before winning a Super Bowl.

Fact: The Redskins can't win 10 games this year...but a few losses will serve two purposes.

It is about time Washington builds through the draft. If you count RGIII as all but gone, the Redskins will have just one 1st or 2nd round draft pick on their roster from 2012-2014. That is embarrassing. In 2015, their first year with new GM Scot McCloughan, the Redskins actually drafted both a first round pick and a second round pick! One small step for....well you get it. Do it again in 2016 and it's a trend. Do it again in 2017 and it's a miracle. The last time (and realizing this won't help prove my points) the Redskins had three consecutive years drafted in both the first round and the second round was 1993-95. As long as the Redskins don't need to draft a QB (Heath Shuler) this strategy might actually work.

Right now Washington would draft 21st overall. With 2 or more losses to end the season, they could crack the top 12. That's the easiest way to trade up in my opinion.

{Counter-point}

Kirk Cousins is average at best. The Redskins need to draft a QB.

Go away. This is how the trouble started in 2012. Kirk is good enough to win a Super Bowl. You don't have to be Tom Brady to win a Super Bowl, hell Eli Manning won two and he's downright awful at times. You can hide an average to above average QB around a great defense and quality offensive line. I'm looking at you Joe Flacco and Russell Wilson. It takes 53 people to win a Super Bowl. The Redskins have about 20 people so far that can get them there. That's up from 10 last year. Get it to over 40 and you're in the mix.

So how do you win 10+ games? For the Redskins it will involve not having to travel to the Meadowlands more than once, to undefeated Atlanta, New England and Carolina in 2016.

 We already know 14 of the 16 opponents for Washington next year. The six games in the division and four each against the NFC and AFC North. What is up for grabs could be the difference between 9 wins and 11 wins for them next year if they keep progressing.

If the Redskins win the NFC East here is who they play:

Home vs Carolina (3 time defending NFC South Champion)
Road at Arizona (Won 10, then 11 and already with 11 wins with 3 to go last 3 seasons)

If the Redskins finish 3rd in the East here is who they play:

Home vs either Tampa Bay (Redskins beat), New Orleans (Redskins beat) or Atlanta (lost 7 of 8 since squeaking by Washington)
Road* at St. Louis Rams (Redskins beat) *Also this game would be played on a neutral site in London where I'm sure Washington fans would outnumber St. Louis fans, because St. Louis is an apathetic fan base for football.

A third place finish gets Washington 8 home games, 6 true road games and two games in London (as they are already guaranteed a 'road' game vs Cincinnati across the pond.

Current win/loss % of 2015 non-NFC East opponents: 70-60 .538
Current win/loss % of 2016 non-NFC East opp (1st place schedule): 75-55
Current win/loss % of 2016 non-NFC East opp (3rd place schedule): 62-68

It's not often you can double your wins and get a potentially much easier schedule the following year. Plus you only have to play 6 true road games!!

This is the best case scenario for the Redskins if they hope to get to double digit wins in 2016. This will lead to dreams of a 2017 Super Bowl season which is what we all want, right?

So please Washington, do us all a favor and lose to Buffalo and Philadelphia and then beat the crap out of Dallas. Lock in that 3rd seed, draft well and take advantage of a very soft 2016 schedule.

I'll see you back in Minnesota in February of 2018 where the Redskins will defend their Super Bowl crown there.

No comments: