Weekend Viewing Guide 10/5/12

It's October.  Next to March it is my favorite sports month of the year.  With the NHL being locked out and already canceling the start of the season it is a bit tempered this year, but thanks to the Oakland Athletics and Washington Nationals making the playoffs, I'll have plenty to watch.

The NFL is past the quarter pole, college football is loaded with big games this month and of course the playoffs in baseball are about to get underway.  What more could a kid ask for?

Here's what I'll be watching:

10. Atlanta Falcons at Washington Redskins

Defenses need not apply to this game.  The Falcons have been the offensive juggernaut that I expected them to be and the Redskins have been the surprise of the league on offense behind star rookie RGIII.  The two teams are ranked 3rd and 4th respectively in the NFL in scoring this season and nothing should change on Sunday.  Matt Ryan has done nothing to dispel my prediction of league MVP and with Roddy White and Julio Jones playing against a terrible secondary, it's not a question of how, but how many times will they score.  So it will be up to the arm and legs of RGIII to keep the Redskins competitive and as of yet he has not disappointed.  This will be a big test for Washington to avoid giving up the big play and to use fellow rookie Alfred Morris to shorten the game, but the Falcons have just too good a passing game to expect an upset.  Final Score: Atlanta 34 Washington 24

9. MLB Wild Card Games: Baltimore Orioles at Texas Rangers and St. Louis Cardinals at Atlanta Braves

One and done.  After six months and 162 games the fate of these four teams will come down to nine innings (barring extra innings of course).  Anything can happen in a single game and that has to scare each player the most.  One bad start, one dropped fly ball (yeah I'm looking at you Josh), one strikeout with the bases loaded, it won't take much to win or lose this game.  Even though Baltimore has been playing better baseball down the stretch than have the Rangers, the experience factor of the last two seasons has to give them the edge.  Add that to being at home and having a better starting pitcher (Yu Darvish versus Joe Saunders) and I expect Texas to out slug Baltimore.  In the senior circuit Atlanta has a chance to do what they couldn't do to St. Louis last year when they lost their final five games of the season and that is to eliminate them.  They will have their biggest lucky charm, and best pitcher to boot on the mound in Kris Medlen.  The Braves have won 23 consecutive games with him starting.  What could possibly go wrong?  Not to be outdone, the Cardinals turn to Kyle Lohse who has had himself a fantastic season.  He went 16-3 which is eye opening, but he has not pitched to the level of Kris Medlen.  Until I see him and the Braves lose with him on the mound, I'm picking Atlanta.

8. #4 LSU Tigers at #10 Florida Gators

I'm not really sure what to expect when these two teams meet on Saturday.  At times both teams have looked downright awful and nowhere near top 10 teams.  Last week LSU fell down early to Towson before rallying to win with some cushion.  Florida played much better in their last game two weeks ago against Kentucky, but underwhelmed against the likes of Bowling Green and Texas A&M.  This will be a defensive struggle as neither team has a stout offense.  They're both ranked in the top 10 nationally in points against and that trend should continue.  Hopefully it won't be a snoozefest like the National Championship game, but it definitely won't be WVU v. Baylor.  I give Florida the slight advantage for not only being at home, but have a full week to rest and prepare.  They take down LSU in a game that will not be for the faint of heart 16-13.
 
7. Cincinnati Reds at San Francisco Giants

As with most postseason match ups, pitching is usually key and this series will prove to be no different.  I feel bad for quality hitters like Joey Votto and Buster Posey as they will be over shadowed by Matt Cain, Johnny Cueto, Madison Bumgarner, Arodlis Chapman and Sergio Romo.  Usually it is the unsung hero, the slap hitter with the limited skill set that comes through when pitchers take the forefront.  All the focus is on shutting down the main weapons that players like Drew Stubbs or Brandon Crawford that come out of nowhere to surprise.  I will also have my eye on the erratic Tim Lincecum to see what if anything he can provide to the Giants.  Fun fact: these two teams combined to have only 3 starts all season long not from their original starting five rotation.  Cincinnati continues to be underestimated, but they will knock out the Giants in four games.

6. New York Yankees at AL Wild Card Winner

I for one am really hoping the Orioles get another shot, 15 years later, at vanquishing some Jeffrey Meier nightmares.  Of course watching some 8-7 games between New York and Texas would be quite fun as well, but that doesn't hold a candle to the animosity that the two east cost cities hold towards each other.  Since I already picked Texas to beat Baltimore, I certainly can't let myself get caught up in what might be.  I've seen a lot of both the Yankees and Rangers down the stretch being an Athletics fan and I haven't been that impressed with the pitching.  The hitting on both sides can be unmatched at times and for casual viewers that will be the biggest draw.  The Yankees advance against either Texas or Baltimore in four games.



5. Denver Broncos at New England Patriots

Welcome back Tom Brady versus Peyton Manning.  The NFL missed this annual get together of future Hall of Fame quarterbacks that don't much like each other.  Both teams have already had their struggles, but both played exceptional last weekend combining to score 89 points.  This is what I am hoping for again this weekend.  A good old fashioned shootout that will come down to the final play of the game.  Unlike in years past where neither team seemed to use their running game with much effectiveness this year both are keeping good balance.  The Patriots had two running backs eclipse 100 yards rushing in the same game for the first time since 1980 last week.  Willis McGahee did the same for Denver.  In the four games this season he has alternated 100+ yards rushing with at least one touchdown with crap outputs.  He might want to switch that up if the Broncos have a chance.  Final Score: New England 31 Denver 23

 4. Washington Nationals at NL Wild Card Winner

Living just outside of DC I've watched the Nationals more than any team outside of Oakland and my two favorite teams have mirrored each other in a reverse type of way.  The Nationals started the season in a major hitting slump but their pitching was top notch.  They infused a young prospect and all of a sudden it clicked.  They played really well all season long until they lost their front end starter.  That's where the Nationals started to struggle.  They went just 10-10 down the stretch and couldn't put away the pesky Braves until game 160 when Atlanta matched Washington's loss that night.  That being said I won't count them out against Atlanta or even St. Louis, but I think their run ends quicker than most believe it will.  Atlanta matches up well against them and I think they take down the Nationals in five games.

3. Oakland Athletics at Detroit Tigers

Everything points to Detroit winning this series easily.  They have the better front line starters, they have the better lineup, they have postseason experience and for some godforsaken reason get to start at home.  The Athletics will need to get a great start from Brett Anderson if he is indeed healthy enough to pitch.  They will need at least a few of their young power hitters to him home runs, because I can't see them stringing together hits against Verland, Scherzer and Fister.  All Detroit will need to do is ride Justin Verlander to victory in Game 1, steal one of the middle games and have Verlander shut the door in Game 5.  This is not the best possible match up for the plucky Athletics and I think they fall in five games again.  

2. #8 West Virginia Mountaineers at #11 Texas Longhorns

Last weekend was fun for undefeated West Virginia scoring at will in front of their home crowd.  This weekend they might just find out that the Big 12 isn't going to be a cake walk.  They head deep in the heart of Texas to face the Longhorns who undefeated as well.  The good news for West Virginia is that Texas loves to play offense just about as much as they do.  The Mountaineers are 3rd in the nation at 53 points scored per game while the Longhorns are averaging just a shade over 47 a game.  With Gus Johnson at the mic on Fox, this can only end in tears of joy.  I've already waxed poetic on the abilities of Geno Smith as he continues his march to the Heisman Trophy, but Texas uses a far more balanced approach to score their points.  They average 267 yards through the air and 228 on the ground and they will need to be able to run the ball to keep Geno off the field.  I see Texas using their home field advantage to stave off West Virginia this time around although it guarantees to be fun.  Final Score:  Texas 45 West Virginia 42

1. #5 Georgia Bulldogs at #6 South Carolina Gamecocks

Welcome to the forefront SEC.  College football fans have had to suffer through Big 10 and Pac 10 games long enough.  It's time for the big boys to strut.  They're not messing around with this battle of Goliath's who are looking to give perennial power houses LSU and Alabama a run for their money.  The winner of this game will have the inside track to represent the SEC East in the SEC Championship game which always leads to a BCS Championship appearance.  Georgia has found a dynamic freshman duo of running back in Todd Gurley and Keith Marshall who have combined for nearly 1000 yards rushing and 14 touchdowns in their first five games.  Unfortunately the Bulldogs lost their top receiver Michael Bennett to a torn ACL at practice on Tuesday which will further increase the workload of the the two backs.  South Carolina is led by their defense which currently ranks 6th in the nation giving up just over 11 points per game.  They will need their defense to stay strong this weekend and the rest of the month as their next two opponents, LSU and Florida are also currently in the top 10.  Georgia goes on the road and ekes out a close game 23-20.