Monday, November 9, 2009

A New Batch

Last season North Carolina Men's Basketball was anointed as the Champion before they even played a game. With the whole crew back, led by uber college stud Tyler Hansbrough, the Tar Heels marched all the way to Detroit leaving crumbled opponents in their wake. Ty Lawson was the floor general, Wayne Ellington, the sniper and Danny Green was the glue that held the whole thing together.

Now they are gone.

Just like in 2005, practically all the scoring, rebounding and assists are gone from a loaded squad. Also like in 2006, the new team will be full of potential All-Americans with a bit of good leftovers to bridge the gap.

Roy Williams has prided him teams on running, shooting, scoring and playing defense in spurts (especially come March). This year it appears as though this team will be led on the defensive side with spurts of offense (hopefully come March).

The two seniors on the team are Deon Thompson and Marcus Ginyard. Thompson has been overshadowed by Hansbrough for the last three years, but he'll have a full season this year to prove he can play in the NBA. Ginyard should have been a senior last year, but a foot injury kept him from leaving a champion with his own class. He is known as a defensive stopper, which just happens to be the only weakness the Heels had last year.

Also returning will be Ed Davis who will be the most scouted prospect on the team this year. He is long and lanky. If you get out a guard or a wing, Davis will be there. He has the tools to score, but again it'll be defense first for him. Larry Drew II is the key to the team. He is stepping in for Lawson at the point. Will he be able to increase his shooting percentage, lower his turnovers and increase his assists (oh and play quality D as well)? That's a ton of question marks in a Roy Williams system.

Tyler Zeller had an abbreviated season last year (bleep you Kentucky) but returned to gain some much needed experience down the stretch. He is yet another long (you'll hear that word used a lot with UNC) player who has some definite offensive skills with a nice touch from outside the paint.

Will Graves (suspension) and Justin Watts (too much talent ahead of him) also saw some playing time last year and will be in the mix this season.

The blue ribbon recruiting class Roy Williams brings to Chapel Hill this year is led by string bean John Henson. The Wear brother, Travis and David, are also tall, but actually look like they have been to a weight room before heading to college. Dexter Strickland and Leslie McDonald are in to hopefully fill Ellington's shoes at the wing spot.

All in all there is a ton of raw talent, and if I had to have someone put the pieces together, I'd ask for Roy Williams.

For a quick season prediction...this year will look a lot like 2006. UNC is going to have real good nights and nights where things are a bit askew. The ACC is not the strongest that his has been in the past, but it is good. I can see UNC going 11-5 in conference.

Come March they will lose in the ACC semis and probably in the Sweet Sixteen of the Big Dance. As long as Dook doesn't win the whole thing (or friggin' Kentucky).

Good luck Heels!

Friday, November 6, 2009

Poker talk for the Weekend

So I'd love to have more money and be able to play poker a lot more, but for now I usually play once in a while with friends. For fun, though, I play weekly at a local watering hole. We usually get between 20 and 45 players for a 10:30 start and that's not bad. There is a wide range of skill levels in the room and I'd like to believe I'm in the top 5% of the people who sit down.

I can practically punch my ticket to the final nine week in and week out if I concentrate enough and don't lose out to a bad beat. Sometimes the people I'm with are annoying and I get out of my style and make stupid plays trying to run over the table. It's not a deep stack tournament and the blinds fly by so one big mistake will end your tournament.

It's fun, it's free and there are weekly cash prizes and a quarterly tournament for $500.

Speaking of final nine...the WSOP is down to exactly that this weekend. Phil Ivey is the best player in the world and he is still in it. He is 7th out of the nine players in amount of chips, but according to ESPN 78.6% of people believe he is going to win. Jeff Schulman, the editor of Card Player Magazine is also there and he's been at a final table before. I believe he will be heads up for the championship. Darvin Moon, the logger from Maryland, has the massive chip lead and has been getting hit in the face with the deck. Recently he has shown a little bit more skill with fewer cards. He is bluff check raising and raising out of position. As long as he keeps with the style he had in getting to the final table he'll be around for a while. Don't get stupid Darvin.

I'd love to see Phil Ivey win, but I believe he'll be 1st out or last out. He's going to get aggressive and try for the quick double up hoping that everybody else is nervous in the beginning and playing close to the vest.

I'm picking Jeff Schulman to win over Darvin Moon.

Tuesday, November 3, 2009

Final Table Night and Trading

So tonight ESPN airs how the final 18 players go down to the final 9 in this years WSOP. I know 2 of the 9 players that make up the final table, but it will still be intriguing to see who the other 7 players are. I love the new format that the WSOP developed last year. After playing for 8 straight days, the final 9 get to take a couple of months off, rest up, learn their opponents, get sponsorship and get some much needed insight from the world's best.

If I played poker for 8 straight days, other than being in heaven, I'd be exhausted. I'd hate to think that I misread my opponent costing me $8 million after surviving 6000+ players because of exhaustion. When the tournament was under 1000 players and you only played for 4 days in a row, there was no need for a break.

Learning your players, watching the tape of them and asking around for insight about the other 8 is very, very important. Just because you made the final 9, don't go home and celebrate by buying a new house and car. Get to work. There is a big, huge, gigantic difference between 1 million and 9th place and 8 million, 1st place and countless endorsements later. Who came in 9th last year?? Who cares? I know Peter Eastgate won last year and I will always know that from here on in. Learn how they play or if anyone has picked up on a tell. Study every hand that was filmed for TV and see how they played while ahead in a hand or behind or when they didn't know where they were. See what cards they like raising with or flat calling. See how many times they stay in a hand on a draw. Can you bet them out? Can you bluff them? There is so much to be learned.

Getting sponsorship is important if you are short on chips. If you don't think your chances to win the whole thing is high, then put as many stupid patches on you clothes as you can. Get the money up front. Soak in the limelight as much as possible. If you have a ton of chips then get what you can get and get out. You'll be on television longer and if you win it all, you can pick your sponsors later and for much more money.

Next hire a pro to help you fix your game. Pay him to watch you in a tournament. Have him videotape every hand of yours. Go back study your tape. Make sure you are not revealing anything. Figure out a way to do the same thing every hand. If you bet with your right hand when you're bluffing and your left hand when you have the nuts, you'll see that on film. If you touch your face on a bluff, you'll see that. Nobody is going to reveal to you your tell, so the only way to figure it out by watching film. Then there's the strategy of hands, the more you know...well you know how that goes.

Good luck to the final 9, I hope to see you there one year.

Shifting gears back to fantasy football. Now is the best time of the year to pull off trades. The studs and duds have emerged. Bye Weeks are almost over. You as an owner know your team strengths and weaknesses. There is no reason to be carrying a stud on the bench. You either make a run for the money or you get left behind. If you pull off a great deal to bolster your team for a playoff run and an injury happens, tough luck. Better to have tried and failed then to never have tried in the first place.

The common factor I have in all of my leagues is a glutton of running backs with shoddy quarterback play. I banked on Kurt Warner having yet another MVP-esque year, but it hasn't happened. I have been fortunate to have 2 good starting running backs and my 3rd string running back become the fantasy sleeper of the year. Cedric Benson has defied all the odds and become a must start #1 back. Look at what he did against the Ravens earlier this year. Go ahead...look...I'll wait.

In my other league Jay Cutler had a strong start (after Week 1) but has flamed out in recent weeks. I have Ray Rice, Thomas Jones, Pierre Thomas, Clinton Portis and Johnathan Stewart to work with and have pulled off a trade sending my #4 and #5 backs in return for Donovan McNabb. He may not be the best quarterback, but his team is a throwing team and will be a definite upgrade over Cutler. The bears will run more and more as the weather gets colder, but Andy Reid refuses to run even up big (watch the film from last week vs. the Giants).

Monday, November 2, 2009

Ovechkin and Warner

So every Washington Capital fan is holding their breath today waiting for word on how long Alex Ovechkin will be out with his undisclosed 'upper body' injury. In hockey you don't have to put out an injury report like they do in football. The reason for this is simple: betting lines. Gambling is so prevalent in the NFL that every minute injury has to be officially documented to avoid fines and punishment.

For all we know Ovechkin has a broken foot if they are saying 'upper body'. That's what is awesome about hockey. It keeps opponents from intentionally aiming for that part of the body with a stick or a check. Now I know the recent rule changes sorta forbid this policy, but I assume some shenanigans are still going on.

My fantasy football team had a great start yesterday with long runs by both Frank Gore and LeSean McCoy. In my league we get double points for touchdowns over 50 yards so I took a good sized lead. My opponent got back into the game with a TD pass from his QB to his WR, but I still had Kurt Warner to play. He was at home against the Carolina Panthers who have not been a defensive force this year to say the least. He threw an early interception, but followed up with a TD to keep me close. That is when his wheels fell off. After falling down by 21 (good for me, all throwing the rest of the way!!) he threw 4 more interceptions and lost a fumble. Thanks, Kurt, thanks.

My draft strategies have been take a QB or two late (7th rd or later), but this year I tried something new and took Kurt in the 5th round, but man do I wish I had a better WR instead of him. I could have waited 2 more rounds and snagged Big Ben or possibly Philip Rivers. More on those thoughts in the off season.

So tonight I'm hoping that Jason Elam has 5 fg's and the Saints D doesn't get a sack or a turnover off Matt Ryan....c'mon kid, help me out!

Saturday, October 31, 2009

Scary Movie List

Being Halloween, everyone puts out their quintessential viewing list of movies that scare the bejesus out of people. Well I'm going to give you my list, maybe not of the scariest movies or the best movies, but the movies I love and isn't that what's important??

Maybe I will try and do some categories:

Scariest/Best Quality movies (for when I could get scared, but now I'm just numb to it all):
The Shining
The Exorcist
Halloween
Jaws
Raising Cain
Saw (the original for its inventiveness)
Blood Beach and C.H.U.D. (now I don't know if they're scary, but I know those were the first two scary movies I had ever been forced to watch by my parents)
Silence of the Lambs
Sixth Sense (probably the last great scary movie before the era of the twist)
Alien
Predator
28 Days Later, 28 Weeks Later
Night of the Living Dead (Romero's Version)
Mothman Prophecies
Seven

Guilty Pleasure movies(not saying they're bad, just not classic):
Killer Klowns from Outer Space
All the Simpsons Halloween Specials
Nightmare Before Christmas
Scream (basically you can thank that movie for the rebirth of horror in theaters)
Evil Dead 1 and 2
Army of Darkness
Drag Me to Hell (Sam Raimi rules!)
Temple of Doom
Willy Wonka and the Chocolate Factory (trippy stuff)
Ghostbusters
Beetlejuice
Terminator (Sci-fi, but it's still scary)
Terminator 2 (for the effects)
Arachnaphobia

Hitchcock:

Psycho
Birds
Rear Window
Man Who Knew Too Much
Rope
Frenzy
Vertigo
Dial M For Murder
North by Northwest

OK, that should keep you kids busy for a while....

Friday, October 30, 2009

Halloween, Hockey and Hokies!

So it's Halloween season and it just happens to be my wife's favorite time of the year. She loves the changing of the leaves, scary movies and chocolate (who doesn't?). As I noted earlier we went up to a cabin in the woods, which is often the setting for a good scary movie, watched some scary movies and noted the changing of the colors in the trees. The only thing missing was eating of chocolate, but we did make some hot chocolate so trifecta nailed!

I'm not too old, but when I was young there wasn't the mass marketing of famous young people for costumes. There weren't any pop idols like Hannah Montana or Zac Efron to emulate. I was He-Man and Spider-man and Dracula, but I also was balloon man one year. I basically wore a big bed sheet and Mom blew up about 20 balloons and stuffed me full of them. Yeah good times.

Even though it's only been 20 years (wow, maybe not 'only') since I've been trick-or-treating, I never remember going with a parent. Times were different, my home town was different. People trusted people and parents, I assume, believed their kids would make the proper decisions. We went out in groups and it was peaceful. I was never the prankster. I didn't throw eggs or smash pumpkins. I was in it for the candy.

With fall comes the start of Hockey and my Capitals have more expectations to succeed than they have ever had in their 35 year history. Anything less than winning a Stanley Cup is not good enough. I remember watching various sports growing up and wondering why my favorite teams could never have the best player in the game. Wayne Gretzky, never a Cap; Joe Montana, never a Redskin; Barry Bonds, never an Oakland Athletic; Michael Jordan, never a Piston. All that has changed now. I get to watch one of the top 5 (or 10 until he wins a Cup) greatest offensive hockey players to ever lace up the skates on a daily basis. I'm not taking this for granted. Hopefully I'll get to see 15 years of stardom (with 3 or 4 Cups too) from Alex Ovechkin. I've watched hockey for about 20 years now and I missed out on Gretzky's peak years and hated Lemieux too much to ever give him any credit for his greatness so I don't really know who to compare the Great 8 to. He is mesmerizing every time he is on the ice. You hold your breath when he has the puck, because you know there is a good chance that something special will happen. I was at the game vs Montreal when this happened. I was at the Rangers playoff game when this happened. I was 5 rows back on the blue line when this happened. Unfortunately I don't live in Phoenix or else I might have been witness to this.

That's just a sampling of what he has done since arriving to the NHL...but I still want him to do this.

As for the Hokies...I hate the Hokies. I love the Tar Heels. UNC 20 VT 17! Sweet!

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA Now you can wait until basketball season and watch this happen.

Thursday, October 29, 2009

Some more tasty goodness

For this episode I'm going to tackle some fantasy football help for newbies. The topic is 'Why drafting a stud defense is useless"

The only thing that matters in drafting a defense for fantasy football or a tandem at that is the first 4-6 weeks at most. I'll cover my three leagues and explain what I mean.

In my ESPN league I went with the tandem, taking the Chargers D and the Jets D in hoping that Rex Ryan's leadership would lead to big points.

In my CBS league I picked the Vikings D based on their first set of games vs Cleveland, Detroit, San Francisco and St Louis

In my other league I went with another Tandem between the NY Giants and my despicable Redskins based off their combo schedule of: Giants v Redskins, Redskins v Rams, Redskins v Detroit (or Giants v Tampa), Giants v Kansas City (or Skins v Tampa Bay), and Giants v Oakland.

Like I said: Track the first five weeks based off of season projections and then hit the waiver wire. DO NOT BE AFRAID TO DROP A SUPPOSED #1 DEFENSE AFTER WEEK 5.

I have picked up the Niners D when they scored 3 defensive TD's vs St. Louis. I picked up the Colts D v St Louis last week, and this week I'm banking on San Diego vs Oakland. I continue to try and match up the best I can. I always try and pick up the defense I want to use for the following week the week before anyone else does. You should always have a floating roster spot for Bye Week replacements. If you don't and you have too much talent, trade quantity for quality to free up a spot and make your team better.

Here's who you should be picking up now for Weeks 9 and 10: Atlanta (vs Washington and Carolina)

That's it for now

Tuesday, October 27, 2009

TV, Maryland and more

Ok so I'm back from a weekend in Maryland. But before I get into my weekend let me tell you about my experience with Best Buy.

I bought a new television to replace my '01 model (an original HD box that was well worth the investment RIP) from Best Buy. It was a 46" with the blu-ray player and surround sound system. I bought it last Sunday with a delivery and install set up for Wednesday before I left for vacation. So I took Wednesday off from work to get this all knocked out. I called at 10:30 (for a delivery scheduled from 8-4) and checked to make sure it was still on the way. The Best Buy rep. said that they would call me an hour before they would drop it off and to call back around 1:30 if I had not heard anything. At 11:30 I got the call I thought I was waiting for...but it was a Best Buy rep. saying that my Geek Squad installer had gotten ill and would not be able to do the install today. I rescheduled for this Wednesday and said that I could handle hooking up the television today without him. At 1:30, I still had not received a call about delivery so I called Best Buy back and they gave me the telephone number to the delivery center in Maryland. I called them and they said that my delivery was canceled and set for this Wednesday. I called Best Buy back and asked for a manager which I never got. The person who runs the check lanes offered her biggest apologies, but would not transfer me to a manager. She also gave me a $50 gift card for my troubles and the number to the corporate line. I called that line and spoke to four more people without my problem being fixed. I was sent back to a manager in store (after another hour of calls) and he 'tried' his best to find a solution. They could not get anything delivered to me on that day so I went and picked it up myself and hooked it up myself that night. On Wednesday the Geek Squad is still coming to 'install' my three products, but we'll probably just end up passing the time by playing Wii.

Onto Maryland: The wife and I got away with our dog to a cottage in the woods outside Deep Creek Lake. It is a nice place, kitchen sans dishwasher, couch, tv w/ dvd on the main level and a bedroom upstairs with a walkout deck. There is also a nice outdoor hot tub. So the first night I go out to the hot tub and relax, but as I was going back inside I heard walking going on in the dense woods nearby. I told my wife who freaked out figuring we were ripe for an axing by some crazy local hillbilly. She was now not in the mood.....for watching horror movies like we had planned. Instead we watched some comedies with all the outdoor and indoor lights on at full blast. It must have looked like a carnival had hit town from the outside. She did not sleep well that night. It rained most of the rest of the weekend, which was fine, because we went for rest, reading and movies. We watch Saw VI, Trick r' Treat, From Hell, Adventureland, The Proposal, Twister and Jurassic Park. I read my newest Jefferey Deaver Book, she studied for a midterm and it was a good time. We were eager to get back because we miss the franticness of our life back at home.

That's it for now, but I'll get you caught up on Fantasy Football, Hockey and I might even speak about the start of the NBA season *gasp* next time.

Tuesday, October 20, 2009

Look! Another post

So I mentioned that I'd get into fantasy football, but what to tackle?

Well let me state that I'm in 3 leagues currently. I run one league that has been together now for 14 years. We started with 8 teams and have grown (and maxed out) to 14 teams. It's a normal scoring, head to head, non keeper league. The only real interesting thing we do is during the draft we go 1-14 in round 1, 14-1 in round 2 and then 14-1 again in round 3. We've done this for 3 years now and during the 1st 2 the difference in records for the top half of the draft and bottom half of the draft has been rather even. Through 5 weeks this year our top half was 18-17 and the bottom half 17-18. Currently I'm leading the league in scoring but have only a 3-3 record to show for it.

In my second league I'm in a 10 team auction keeper league. Its about as different as you can get from my league. This is our fourth year and I haven't had much success in the first three years. This year I'm 5-1 so I guess I have hope.

My third league is a new league this year and it's with guys at work. Most of the players aren't very competitive so it's a good break from my other leagues. I'm currently 5-1 in that one as well.

Everyone who writes blogs or runs a website has their own theory on how to draft a team and I do as well so during the off season I will go over the do's and don't to having a success team. I won't promise that you'll win every time, mainly because I choose safe over flashy. I'd much rather have Wes Welker over Terrell Owens or Desean Jackson this past draft year. I know what I'm getting from Welker and that is half the strategy. Obviously I'll miss out on rookie studs, but they are few and far between. How's Beanie Wells working out for ya?

On the Poker front: I believe with enough practice, patience and money (that's the key) I could play poker professionally. Unfortunately I am about 5 years too old to have taken advantage of the poker boom. By the time it became uber popular I was already in an established relationship with a job and bills to pay. I'm not wealthy enough to take six months off and give it a run and I don't have enough faith in playing online to try and make my riches. I love playing poker, some for the rush of gambling, some for the mental warfare that goes on and some just because I have always played cards and I truly love it.

I want to, in the future, go over certain hands and break them down a la Ron Jaworkski for the NFL, but I don't have a good hand to go over now. People do say that poker is luck and top pro's will say that it is more skill than luck, but I'm going to compare poker to fantasy football. The way I play is the same way I draft. I'm looking to put myself in the best possible situation more times than not. What does that mean you ask? With football, taking the constants rather than the flash. In poker the whole goal is to put your money in with the best hand more times than not. The trouble nowadays is that if you play too conservatively you will just get run over by crazy, wild players. That forces tighter players to try and make players with lesser quality hands. So now you have to learn how to play from behind during a hand, while trying to convince someone that you are playing exactly how you would play if you knew you had the best hand. You can't flop the nut flush or trips or a straight every time. Sometimes you have to pay to catch up. Knowing your opponent is almost as important as what you have in your hand.

I can play against my friends and some of them will fold to a raise every time if they don't have a good hand. Some will only call every raise because they 'think' they have a good hand but they don't know what to do with it. Some will call every time because with 1 more card they can have a good hand. The latter of the three players is the hardest to play against. You can bet to try and win the pot, but most of the time it doesn't matter, they're staying until the end. You can check, but then you've given the player a free card and you have no one to blame but yourself. The best way to play against a player like that is to bet more money than you ever would just to end it right there. If they want to put their entire chip stack on a draw, let them. Sometimes they'll win, but more than most, you will. If you have a marginal hand against a marginal player, end it quickly. Just like in the NCAA tournament in Men's Basketball...the longer you let a lower seed hang around, the great the chances you have at doing something stupid to lose.

Ok, that's it for now. Hopefully I'll get to write tomorrow before going on vacation for the weekend. I'll tell you all about my trip to the woods on Monday.

Monday, October 19, 2009

I'm baaaaaaaaaack

So I've been meaning to start my blog again for a long time, but kept forgetting to do so. Let's get everyone caught up over the last 18 months. I have a new job, new car, new television, same wife and less hair.

Random thoughts over recent sporting events. The Redskins need to blow up their entire roster, focusing on building solely from the draft and making no noise in upcoming free agent markets. They need to rebuild their offensive line long before finding a new franchise quarterback. You need it to get worse before it can get any better. This means at least 2 more seasons at 3-13 getting top five picks and building a new foundation. Quarterbacks can always be found, but he won't be any good without being protected. I believe Jason Campbell could be a decent quarterback (nowhere near pro bowl material) behind a great offensive line. I beg Dan Snyder to only take 300+ lbs. players over the next 3 years of drafts.

Onto the good part of DC sports. The Capitals have a real shot at winning a Stanley Cup this year and bringing joy to this city finally. The need to bring the same concentration they showed during the season opening win against Boston and recently at home against San Jose. Remember that a 4-1 victory is just as good as a 6-5 victory. I just wish more people could understand how good Alex Ovechkin is and would support him and the Capitals with as much fervor as they do for the Redskins. I never got to see Wayne Gretzky in his prime, but I can only imagine the what I get to see with Ovi night in and night out is just about that.

So recent movies I saw: Zombieland-tons of fun and a great secret cameo
Couples Retreat-moments of good (mainly trailer stuff). They should have gone for the R rating...it was missing the zing of good adult jokes
Paranormal Activity-Good for $15,000 budget, but felt like a show I'd be watching on Syfy or Discovery Channel

Ok that's it for tonight...I swear I'll do this on a more updated basis and get to talking about fantasy football, poker and other fun stuff.